[Bob Reed]

Last year with John Mabry as hitting coach: 4.4 runs per game.

Last year with Mark Budaska and George Greer as hitting coaches: 5.1 runs per game.

This year with Jeff Albert as hitting coach: 4.5 runs per game.

It’s official. I have now given up on this front office, and this organization as a whole. Managers, coaches, players. They cannot identify the difference between a failure and a success. (Bleep) them.

[Bob Reed]

The Memphis Birds were on the road Sunday and received homers from infielders Edmundo Sosa and Ramon Urias. So this seems as good a time and place as any to mention their respective home/road splits this year. (Memphis, as I’m sure everyone here knows, is a pretty significant pitcher’s park. At least when you compare it to the vast majority of the Pacific Coast League stadiums.)

Edmundo Sosa now has a cool .900 OPS away from AutoZone Park this year, which is 232 points above his home OPS. And it’s critical to note that his road numbers have NOT been padded by the hitter-happy havens of the PCL. Specifically, Edmundo has played zero games in Vegas, Albuquerque, El Paso, and Salt Lake City.

The 23-year-old shortstop has played four games in Omaha, typically a good hitting park, and four more in the fairly notorious Reno stadium. And that’s it. That’s the only games in anything like a severe hitter’s park for Sosa. (In those 8 games by the way he batted .447 and slugged .684.)

Ramon Urias on the other hand has a road OPS that’s 302 points above his home total (.945 to .643). Urias has also played no games in El Paso, Albu-Q, Salt Lake, or Vegas. He does have three AB’s in Reno. “Three AB’s in Reno.” Sounds like a bad Ry Cooder/Terry Cashman collaboration.

So these middle infielders probably warrant more attention than they’ve received this year. Some guys really are hurt by their home park more than others. It was true of Tommy Pham in the minors, it was true of Gorman & Herrera in Peoria this year, it’s been true of Harry Bader in the majors — I’d tell you the Bader Home/Road career splits, but you wouldn’t believe me — and it certainly seems to be true for this duo at Memphis. (I strongly suspect that with Bader it’s actually a case of David Wright Syndrome, but that’s a story for another day.)

[Bob Reed]

Thank you one and all for the extravagantly generous sentiments.
Glibness aside, I confess your words moved me just a little bit. Gracias.

So anyway. Having had a few days to reflect and re-evaluate, I have a handful of names to add to the StL prospect list. And some math to put the farm system into its proper industry-wide context. The additions are:

Catcher Jose Godoy, top 900.
Jose is a solid defensive catcher according to Baseball Prospectus’ metrics, and a downright elite one per Clay Davenport’s numbers. Davenport projects him as a 2.5 WAR backstop in his prime, if not a hair better. In other words, Godoy — who turns 25 in two months — figures to be a very good MLB backup for awhile if given the opportunity, or maybe even a viable starter for a year or two at some point. However, the Redbirds themselves have never prioritized playing time for Jose, which makes me think that “good backup” is his ceiling. He’d be a top 400 were he a year younger.

Outfielder Johan Mieses, top 900.
One of the more up-and-down hitting profiles you’ll find anyplace. Davenport and B-Pro both like the glovework, and Davenport’s projection model thinks the power is pretty darn real. Mieses is neither young nor old, having just turned 24 a month ago, but he might be in one of the 3 or 4 farm systems deepest with future MLB outfielders, so I doubt his career will start under the Arch. Either way, top 900 is quite cautious for someone projected at 2.5 WAR in his prime by Clay Davenport.

Pitcher Yordy Richard, top 1,200.
This 16-year-old righty has a 4.81 ERA in a pitcher’s league, but here’s the rest of the story. (Apologies to Paul Harvey, who doubtless just spun in his grave.) In his first three Dominican Summer League appearances, Yordy Richard permitted 13 earned runs across just 9 innings. He whiffed 10 (good!) and walked 10 (not good at all!). But over his next seven outings, he’s been a new man. Well, a new kid. He’s twirled 30 innings and allowed just 8 earned runs, with a solid 26-to-7 K/BB ratio. For me that’s enough to easily make a top 1,000 list, much less a top 1,200. Anyone wants to make him a top 900, I wouldn’t debate the point.

Third baseman Brandon Hernandez, top 1,200.
The 17-year-old Hernandez began his season 6-for-40 with 19 strikeouts in 11 games (ugh) and zero extra base hits. But he has turned things around beautifully. In the next 25 games, he fanned just 20 times, drew 15 walks, and batted ~.320/.430/.470, which is very, very good for the DSL. His numbers don’t dazzle at a glance, but Hernandez has been excellent for awhile now, and that’s enough to get on the end of a massive top 1,200 list.

Second sacker Brendan Donovan, top 1,200.
This one I could be talked out of, frankly. Donovan is two years too old for the Midwest League, and if his own organization thought much of him he’d already have been promoted to High-A. But facts are facts, and he’s been real good at the dish this year (wRC+ of 136) and just as importantly for overage prospects like Brendan, he’s shown a sturdy BB/K tally. Neither B-Pro nor Davenport like his fielding, so I don’t see utilityman in his future. But hey, surprises can happen — and after all, I’m talking top 1,200 not top 200. Old guys with good plate discipline account for many of baseball’s better late bloomers, so I’ll give Brendan a seat at the very back of my list.

Catcher Aaron Antonini, top 1,200.
And speaking of older prospects with admirable plate discipline…Antonini, a native Venezuelan taken in the 18th round out of Middle Tennessee State this year, is a 21-year-old batting .256 in the Appalachian League. So why on Earth would he make a list that excludes Griffin Roberts, Luken Baker, Delvin Perez and Seth Elledge, et. al.? Well, first Antonini very recently had a birthday. Therefore it’s actually his age 20 season, which means he’s effectively just one year too old for his league rather than two. And second, that aforementioned strikezone control. You see, AA is hitting .256/.396/.651 and has 9 walks to just 5 strikeouts in 53 trips to the plate. It’s rookieball, I realize. And he’s old, I know. But there’s clear evidence of the things we want to see: patience, power, contact. So there’s upside there, particularly if he can keep catching. Okay, to be blunt he’ll likely flatline at Peoria next year. But for the present he’s a mildly intriguing longshot of a prospect.

—————————————————

So now the math. Using my prospect grades, and applying the dollar values for prospects provided by Fangraphs, the St. Louis Cardinal farm system has a paltry $37M worth of pitching prospects, which is pretty bad. Glancing at the Fangraphs table, Redbird arms would rank approximately in the 22-25 range, I’d say. But the good news is the Cardinals also have $262M worth of position players, a total which would trail only the Big Two farm systems of San Diego and Tampa Bay. (The Friars and Devil Rays really are easily the two strongest farm systems right now. No one else comes within shouting distance.)

The Redbird overall grand total then is $299M. This would rank them 4th in minor league monetary value behind only the two juggernauts and the Dodgers. But since the Cards are so severely imbalanced down on the farm in terms of hitters/pitchers, there are some other organizations whose more balanced farm systems I’d prefer even if their total value doesn’t quite match that of the Baby Birds. (Atlanta, Minnesota, and Miami spring immediately to mind.)

In any case, I’d have to do a deep dive investigation of other farms to parse the rankings precisely — and moreover, I’d need to figure out who’s going to lose prospect eligibility by Labor Day on top of it. (And I don’t even know that about Cardinal guys like Tommy Edman or Lane Thomas for example.) But now that the numbers are crunched, folded, spindled, and mutilated, I’m more comfortable than ever in saying that the Cards have a top 8-10 farm system, and maybe a touch better. Certainly and absolutely no worse.

Brian provided this link earlier, but I see no reason not to do so again here. This will keep everyone, including my lazy self, from having to scroll up and search for it. This is the total farm system values for all franchises, and how Fangraphs arrived at the numbers, prospect-by-prospect:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for all the feedback and kind words, folks! Thanks especially, Ny, for the copious Rondon info. (Of course we jinxed him tonight. That’s baseball.)

Now, I hadn’t intended to make this thread a referendum on Angel Rondon per se. (Can a person hijack their own thread?) My noble goal was to peevishly excoriate the buffoons at Fangraphs — with supporting evidence — and place the StL farm system into it’s proper position among all franchises. So let’s do that.

Below are the corrected Cardinal prospect grades. My grades, but using the Fangraphs numbering system. I’ve included the ranking range for each group of prospects, along with the numerical grade. To be clear, the ranking range numbers reflect how many prospects were given each grade by the buffoons.

So, if I think Tommy Edman and Edmundo Sosa are roughly the 200th-best prospects in the minors, they would be assigned a grade 45 since Fangraphs graded 156 players at 45+ or better, and 132 prospects at exactly grade 45.

(The players within each group are NOT listed in any particular order within said group. Well, except it’s hitters before pitchers. Also, the twirlers are italicized.)

Grade 55 (rank between 16 and 44 overall): N. Gorman, D. Carlson

Grade 50 (rank between 45 and 121): A. Knizner, I. Herrera, E. Montero

Grade 45+ (between 122 and 156): M. Nunez, A. Rondon

Grade 45 (between 157 and 288): T. Edman, E. Sosa, L. Thomas, J. Rodriguez, J. Torres, R. Arozarena, R. Helsley, J. Woodford, J. Oviedo

Grade 40+ (between 289 and 406): C. Soto, R. Urias, P. Pages, P. Romeri, J. Fernandez, Z. Thompson, C. Thomas

Grade 40 (between 407 and 902): J. Williams, L. Nootbaar, J. Yepez, T. Fletcher, M. Castillo, R. Heredia, R. Mendoza, J. De Los Santos, M. Gil, T. Fuller, T. Parsons, J. Ralston, A. Fagalde, K. Whitley, A. Pallante, G. Cabrera, A. Seijas, L. Jimenez

Grade 35+ (between 903 and 1,235): Diowill Burgos, Brady Whalen, Albert Inoa, Leandro Cedeno, Carlos Arcia, Parker Kelly, Angel Cuenca, Gustavo J. Rodriguez

Fangraphs rated at least 15 Cardinals higher than I did. I know it’s at least 15, because I excluded from my rankings 15 individuals who made the Fangraphs list, including the Cannabis Card, Griffin Roberts. (An honorary title inherited from Alex Reyes.) Also omitted from my list were noteworthies such as Jose Adolis Garcia, Luken Baker, and Stephen Gingery. I welcome any objections to my omissions as long as they’re relatively civil and include a vile anti-Cub remark.

I didn’t bother to closely check the rest of the Redbird Fangraphs grades; I’m sure that a substantial majority of my grades will be higher than theirs. For example I have 16 Redbirds graded 45 or better, while the buffoons have four.

A thousand apologies to any forgotten prospects. No doubt someone or two slipped through the cracks. And Griffin? Put down the pipe, son.

[Bob Reed]

Sorry I missed your update, Brian — or rather, your update of the Fangraphs update.

Okay, here’s the thing. All a Cardinal fan need know about Fangraphs is they STILL do not consider Angel Rondon to be a pitching prospect. He is dead to them. They do not list him among the 600 pitching prospects assigned value grades. That’s not hyperbole. They list exactly 600 arms and he is not among them.

To illustrate precisely how bizarre this is, how incompetent+corrupt Fangraphs is re St. Louis prospects, and this twirler specifically, let’s put Angel Rondon’s Double-A pitching performance into a context.

Here are the slashlines permitted this year in AA by some of the very elite pitching prospects in baseball. Beside each pitcher is his age and his current Fangraphs ranking among all pitching prospects.

Dustin May (21 years old, #3 overall pitching prospect) .237/.297/.330
Casey Mize (22, #4 pitcher) .226/.274/.322
Sixto Sanchez (21, #8) .231/.273/.353
Matt Manning (21, #11) .198/.264/.296
Ian Anderson (21, #13) .202/.285/.296
Angel Rondon (21, not top 600) .228/.309/.320

As a blind man could see, these six are awfully, awfully similar in both age and AA pitching performance. And yet, with the myriad updates always going on with Fangraphs’ vaunted board, they haven’t found any room for poor Angel Rondon — who’s allowed one earned run or less in six of his past seven starts by the way. A few weeks back they (Fangraphs) finally at long last woke up and moved Ivan Herrera from 33rd to 8th in the organization. But still, no Rondon any place. And Dylan Carlson still juuust barely within their top 100 overall prospects, by the way. That cannot happen unless they’re idiots, corrupt, or both.

I bet I know what you’re thinking, but there are no serious red flags for Rondon. There just aren’t. His velocity is already fine, with room for extra. (MLB pipeline’s recent update remarked that “he generates easy velocity, sitting 92-94 mph and bumping 95 in most outings, and is a candidate to add a few more ticks based on his remaining physical projection.”)

He has no serious injuries much less arm surgeries in his past.
He’s succeeded at every single level and never been old for his league.
He isn’t a little guy, nothing like that. He’s listed at 6′ 2″ and 185, same as Jordan Hicks.
He has no conditioning or other work ethic/personality questions.
And finally he gets out lefties as well as righties.

In fact, that last bullet point is real important. Because in 2018, Rondon actually DID have trouble with lefty hitters, permitting them a borderline unacceptable slashline of .259/.325/.427. But this year has been a different story.

Righty Rondon has faced 269 lefty batters in 2019 and allowed them to slug .237.
That’s not a typo, and that’s not a batting average line. Seriously, that’s slugging. That’s lefty slugging, permitted by a righty starting pitcher. Rondon across two levels has allowed lefties to hit .190/.291/.237. In Double-A they’ve slugged .286. So I’m guessing it’s fair to assume that Rondon’s changeup has probably taken a significant step forward this year.

But honestly, the why is almost entirely irrelevant. What’s important is that Angel Rodon is a 21-year-old pro ballplayer enjoying conspicuous success in AA, with zero red flags either this year or in his professional track record. Therefore that makes him a good-or-better prospect. At least a top 200-250 overall prospect, regardless of repertoire. And in his specific case, knowing his details, I’d have him crowding the top 100 — especially if he finishes the season strongly.

Oh, and the Cardinals are in the 8-10 range among all farm systems. Could maybe be one or two higher or lower than that, I suppose. I’d have to look closely at who has lost rookie eligibility lately, and who was traded.

[Bob Reed]

“Jimenez came over from the GCL team and started the Palm Beach game. His current age? 17!!!!”

Yeah, I couldn’t help noticing that too, CC. Held his own for four innings on top of it.

While I’m sure the Palm Beach outing is purely a stopgap/convenience thing (not unlike 18-year-old backstop Ivan Herrera’s very, very, very brief Springfield stint last year), I wonder now if they’ll start Jimenez in Peoria next year. I was planning on seeing him there in 2021 when he’d still be a teenager, but maybe the timetable will be more aggressive. We’ll see.

[Bob Reed]

Favorite oddball Carlson stat:
This year he’s batting .290 and slugging .500 when behind in the count. It’s only 124 at-bats, and I have zero idea whether or not this has any predictive value whatsoever. But I love it anyway.

For a little context, here are some other highly rated outfield prospects and their 2019 behind-in-the-count batting averages/slugging percentages:

Drew Waters .245 and .340
Jo Adell .200 and .343
Cristian Pache .220 and .390
Alex Kirillof .151 and .221
Taylor Trammell .160 and .213
Jarred Kelenic .186 and .309
Jesus Sanchez .214 and .262

All of this might mean nothing. Last year Fernando Tatis Jr. in AA hit .176 and slugged .272, but this year you certainly can’t say that major league pitchers are exploiting the kid, can you?

Dylan Carlson has been generally credited with having a “mature, professional approach” at the plate, so maybe his extraordinary numbers reflect that to some degree. Or maybe it’s all noise, no signal.

But it’s still fun.

[Bob Reed]

There seems to be something like a consensus — at this website and everywhere else — that strictly from a batting standpoint Dylan Carlson has a higher floor and lower ceiling than Nolan Gorman. That’s certainly how I feel as well. But what about the non-batting factors? What about fielding and baserunning?

First I must declare a tiny caveat. These calculations are about a week old, so there may be some very minor changes lately. In fact there almost surely will be. But this will be extremely close to accurate.

I used the numbers available at Baseball Prospectus for fielding and baserunning values at the minor league level, and pro-rated to a per-150-game run value for many highly ranked third base prospects.

(There is no shortage of arrogant and annoying voices within the scouting & analytics “communities” who pooh-pooh defensive metrics at the minor league level, but I’ve consistently found the numbers to have solid predictive properties — at least as much as defensive scouting reports, if not moreso. And specifically, over the years I have observed one near certainty: if a player has truly terrific defensive numbers in the minors, he will be an excellent gloveman when he gets to The Show. Middle infielders, catchers, corner outfielders, doesn’t matter what the position.)

So anyway, here are the fielding + baserunning values for hot corner prospects, per 150 professional games:

1) Ke’Brayan Hayes +18 runs per 150 minor league games played.
This makes sense, as Hayes is universally lauded for his glovework and doesn’t hurt you on the bases.

2) Isaac Paredes +8 runs per 150
3) Elehuris Montero +6
4) Sheldon Neuse +5
5) Bobby Dalbec +1
6) Jordan Groshans neutral
7) Nolan Jones -1
8) Hudson Potts -2
9) Mark Vientos -4
10) Alex Bohm -5
11) Jonathan India -6
12) Ryan Mountcastle -12
13) Colton Welker -14

I know, you’re wondering where Nolan Gorman is hiding. First, for those of you who unlike myself have real lives and don’t regularly waste time poring over other teams’ prospect evaluations, I just want to say that the above numbers generally align quite neatly with the scouting-based reputations of each prospect. Paredes and Montero look a bit better here than their reputations, but the rest of the numbers reflect the publicly available scouting reports to a great degree. So what of Gorman?

Nolan Gorman as of last week had been worth +19 runs per 150 games in defense + baserunning since being drafted. Well, it’s all defense. He’s not a runner.

Gorman could get hurt. He could get fat. He could run off to join the circus as a knife-thrower for all I know. The future is not written…but his past is clearer than crystal. Nolan Gorman has indisputably been an outstanding defensive third baseman so far as a professional. And it is largely for this reason that I place him above Dylan Carlson on my Redbird prospect list. (Carlson is at +3 per 150 games, which is very slightly better than both the mean and median for an elite outfield prospect, and distinctly above average in a corner.)

I think Baseball Prospectus went too far in ranking Nolan Gorman 14th in their latest prospect list. And I think Carlson at 38th was a tad too low. But 20th for the former and 30th for the latter feels right to me, so I guess I’m guilty of quibbling. The plausible upside for Carlson over his prime 4-6 years is something like 2017-2019 Tommy Pham. But the plausible Gorman upside is Mike Schmidt Lite, and that’s even better. I have the same concerns as Forschy and others, re Gorman’s contact troubles. But Nolan’s so very young, and has so many physical gifts — strongest hands/wrists of anyone I’ve seen at Peoria (though admittedly I never saw Pujols there) — that he’s still a half-notch above Dylan for me.

[Bob Reed]

I’ll just say that’s a very interesting gambit, promoting an 18-year-old who is striking out twice a game at his current level, and leave it at that.

Never mind. I can’t quite leave it. If someone were going to be promoted from the GCL to the Appy League so early in the season, it feels like the 19-year-old with more walks than strikeouts who’s hitting .423/.531/.692 would be the one. (Not that Franklin Soto is the better prospect by any means. But he looks like the one who currently requires the challenge of a better league.)

[Bob Reed]

I’m not an exercise physiologist, but it seems like 95-98 MPH would place a lot less stress on the body than 99-103 MPH.

Maybe the Cards should seriously consider returning Jordan Hicks to a starting role in the future, where he’ll be forced to pace himself, i.e., take something off that fastball and take some pressure off that valuable right elbow & shoulder.

Good luck, Jordan.

[Bob Reed]

I know what POTUS and SCOTUS are. But what’s a Wotus?

I like Showalter a lot as a manager — and as a 15-1 value bet. But I would think the Giants are veering toward a youth movement very soon, and I don’t know which manager is the best fit for that philosophy. Matheny’s St. Louis tenure was excellent for developing young starting pitchers, but Mabry undermined all of the Cardinal kid hitters and Matheny might want to bring him along as batting coach.

If I’m Frisco I’d prefer Matheny to Matt Williams for sure, or any first-time managers. Not sure about Girardi. But re Matheny, I’d insist on no Mabry (except in a benign bench coach role) or no deal.

[Bob Reed]

“For an organization that can be so passive most of the time at the big league level they can sure be aggressive/reckless with their lower minor league promotions. Weird paradox.”

Jekyll and Doolittle. That’s a weirder one.

Sorry, couldn’t resist. Seriously though, the one organizational constant during the decline into MLB mediocrity has been the Redbird player development excellence. So in this case I’m going to blandly assume that the braintrust knows what they’re doing. Or at least mostly knows what they’re doing.

Unlike with free agent signings and big time trades, a significant portion of what’s going on with minor league promotions is unseen by our gaze. But yes, as others have said, this is clearly not a standard merit-based promotion. Unless the club gave a lot of weight to my Nolan Gorman home/road remarks of the other day!

Gorman away from Dozer Park: .314/.391/.588. That really would be more than worthy of the bump to Palm Beach.

Anyway, I wouldn’t have promoted him yet, but I’m not gonna fret over it. And I won’t be shocked if he’s an above average hitter in the FSL for the remainder of the season.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the kind words, GScott and SC-25. And you guys are spot on re the “devil magic” nonsense, and the vastly underrated influence of minor league park factors.

Take Peoria. In a sixteen team league, Peoria is the toughest of all for hitters. According to the most recent numbers I could find, runs are roughly 40-50% more plentiful in Lansing, Kane County, Burlington, and Cedar Rapids. (Good movie. But too much of a hitter’s park.) Park factors link: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-stats-class-a-park-factors/c-210987116

How does this affect the perception of StL prospects? Well, I can tell you that I myself am a bit disappointed right now in Nolan Gorman’s season. Or rather, I was until very recently. Then I checked those home/road splits the other day. (Due to some flooding at other parks, Gorman’s played 40 games at home and just 27 on the road.)

Gorman away from Dozer Park: .314/.391/.588
Gorman in 11 games at Cedar Rapids/Lansing/KC/Burlington: .386/.413/.705

Looks juuust a bit more impressive than his overall .792 OPS, right? That’s .979 on the road and 1.118 in the Midwest League hitter’s parks. (Somewhere Charlie Blackmon is smiling.)

Of course that could be a weird fluke just specific to Nolan Gorman. So let’s look at the other top prospect playing in Peoria. You know, fellow teenager Ivan Herrera, the one that Fangraphs just massively upgraded from 33rd in the organization pre-season all the way to 8th — but STILL they won’t rank in the top 300 overall prospects. Or even particularly close to the top 300, apparently, since only the top 4 Redbird farmhands make their top 300. But then, they’re incompetent with St. Louis prospects. So you have to factor that in.

Ivan Herrera — the only catcher in pro baseball at any level to post at least a 150 wRC+ in both 2017 & 2018 — has played 26 games in Dozer Park this season and 19 on the road.

Herrera, Road: .371/.451/.548
Herrera, hitter’s parks: .409/.480/.591 in 6 games

That’s .999 and 1.071 for Herrera. And again, .979 and 1.118 for Gorman. The sample sizes may be laughably small but the performances certainly are not. Anyway I wouldn’t claim that those spectacular road splits define the current hitting skill of Gorman and Herrera. But then, neither do the overall numbers in my opinion, not by a mile. So, how good are they really?

I’ll put it this way. If a stranger stops you on the street tomorrow and says, “Excuse me, do you have the time? And also, what does Bob Reed think the real Midwest League hitting ability of Ivan Herrera and Nolan Gorman is right now?”

Tell them I would put their true OPS numbers at the halfway point between their overall numbers and their road splits. By that math, that would be a little over .900 for Herrera and a little under .890 for Gorman. And if the stranger asking is Salma Hayek, please tell her she can reach me through this website any time.

————————————-

A thousand pardons but I don’t have the time tonight to complete the Carlson musings. But I can give a cursory glance at Carlson’s season, compared to his Texas League peers. His league rankings:

3rd in triples
4th in slugging %
7th in doubles
7th in walks
8th in home runs
10th in on-base %
12th in batting average
13th in steals

And 40th in strikeouts. More precisely, of the 91 Texas League batters with 100+ trips to the plate, Dylan Carlson ranks 17th-lowest in strikeout rate. And of those 91, he’s the second youngest. By five days. See, this is not a top 100 prospect, or a top 75 prospect, or a top 50 prospect. But we’ll put a number to him soon. Tomorrow with any luck.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the update, BHC!
With the overslot payments to catcher Zade Richardson and pitcher Thomas Hart (they’ve gotta draft a backstop named Benton now) I don’t see any possible path to signing both McFarlane and Newell, if there ever was. But can they capture one of them, that’s the question.

————————————–

I’ll just continue where I left off last night. Sorry if that feels abrupt. Oh, but first — per the Pugs request — I’ll go ahead and identify the overrated outfielders mentioned earlier.

1) Corey Ray
2) Monte Harrison
3) and 4) Pirate outfielders Oneil Cruz and Travis Swaggerty
5) Leody Taveras
6) Tristen Lutz

Outfielder #7 is Estevan Florial, who is a year older than Carlson and is yet to reach AA ball despite his pro career starting in 2015. Florial’s defense & baserunning are no better than Carlson’s, he strikes out much more, and he has a checkered health history.

Number eight is Yusniel Diaz, who is two years older than Carlson and hitting just .243 in AA with a .754 OPS. He is worse than Dylan at both fielding and running (for all players, the numbers for defense & baserunning are taken from a combination of Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport), and has seemingly regressed as a hitter since switching organizations via last year’s Machado-to-the-Dodgers deal.

Ninth is Trevor Larnach, who is 22 years old in High-A — nearly two years older than Carlson and competing a level lower — and like Diaz he appears to be distinctly less valuable in non-hitting ways than Dylan Carlson, who’s a minor asset both in the field and on the basepaths.

Outfielder number ten is Brandon Marsh, who actually has a skill that surpasses Carlson. Marsh is a tremendous baserunner. As for the rest, though, he’s a year older than Carlson while playing against the same level of competition, and they are posting nearly identical wRC+ numbers. So, the edge goes to Carlson due to his age advantage; and there’s something else. Marsh is striking out 50% more often than Carlson, and therefore Marsh gets to his 135 wRC+ via a bloated .422 BABIP. Normalize that BABIP down to .380-.390 and the wRC+ plummets below 120, maybe even 115.

I will say this for Marsh: he has hit much better outside of his home park of Mobile this year. But offsetting that is the fact that his isolated slugging has decreased with every single promotion along his minor league career. (His ISO is exactly half of what it was back in rookieball in 2017. Unlike Carlson whose power is only increasing — a very good sign.) I like Marsh as a top 60-70 guy, but not nearly as much as Carlson.

Number 11 is Victor Victor Mesa. Victor Victor Mesa has a really cool name. That is all of the positive things I can say about him. I would show you the numbers but you would not believe me. Here’s a link: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa3008602&position=OF

Jesus Sanchez is number 12. He’s performing exactly as well as Carlson, at the same level as Carlson, but is a year older. That’s an edge, plain and simple. He could get a mulligan on the age difference if there were mitigating factors — like if he was drafted last year out of junior college, something like that. But Sanchez is in his fifth professional season. So Carlson gets the edge. As for fielding + baserunning, it’s an almost perfect push.

These guys could have very similar careers in the offing…but again, advantage Carlson for the time being. Sanchez has the better resume if we go back to the lower minors, with lots of dominance; but when Sanchez got his first shot at AA last year — at the same age Carlson is this year, of course — he flopped badly, batting a punchless .214. So the negative and positive pre-2019 stuff basically washes out.

The 13th and 14th guys are recent draftees schoolboy Riley Greene and collegiate home run leader J.J. Bleday. Bleday is a year older than Carlson and would need to clobber the upper minors this year to be on pace with where Carlson is. In fact, being a year older he’d actually need to reach AAA, and that ain’t happening. If Bleday gets to AA this year it would be a huge shock. He’s a big talent but I could never put a 21-year-old college bat ahead of a 20-year-old who’s already excelling in Double-A. Not unless the college guy has a distinct advantage in defense/baserunning, and that is not at all the case here.

Sidebar: J.J. Bleday hit almost exactly the same this year as Brett Wallace hit during his final collegiate season. Bleday probably played a tougher schedule…but then, Wallace had the much better BB/K numbers. I don’t mean to imply that Bleday will wind up like Wallace. Just suggesting that metal bat performances translate much better to the pros for some guys than others, and it’s real hard to tell which ones will and which ones won’t.

Now Riley Greene. If Riley Greene is tearing up Double-A in 2021, he’ll be what Carlson is now — only with worse defense & baserunning than Carlson offers, apparently. (And excelling in AA just two years after being drafted is an awful lot to ask of a high school kid. It does not happen often.) In fact, word is Greene’s roughly even money to end up at first base, and he’s already “not fast” on the basepaths, to put it politely. I can’t see ranking him higher than 50th or so until he has some kind of pro hitting record. And 50th is not above Dylan Carlson.

So that’s the 14 guys who cannot be above Carlson, for me.

——————————————-

I think that’s enough for one night. Tomorrow I’ll do the fun part, comparing Carlson to his real true peers — the guys I’m not sure whether I prefer to him or not. You, dear readers, will have the experience of following along through my thought processes. You have my condolences.

[Bob Reed]

First, thanks for the very generous words, everyone. Your checks are in the mail. I mean, your bitcoins are in the cloud.

I wanted to talk about more than Dylan Carlson in this post, but I didn’t realize exactly how many other outfielders were misguidedly ranked ahead of him on the MLB.com and Fangraphs lists. There’s a lot to go over, and I’d honestly like to keep this a manageable length. So today, just Carlson. (Dylan by the way is ranked 95th and 100th at MLB.com and Fangraphs, respectively.)

Between the pair of aforementioned prospect lists, there are 25 different outfielders rated better than Dylan Carlson. I’ll start by acknowledging the ones who truly are worthy of such a distinction. These are the guys I would absolutely trade Dylan Carlson for straight-up.

Jo Adell. Half a year younger than Carlson and appears plenty ready for Triple-A. Adell has hit at every level since being drafted in 2017, and likely has more defensive/baserunning value than Carlson. Injured this year and last, his inconsistent health is at least a mild concern going forward. He’s 27-for-32 stealing bases, with 28 homers, 12 triples, and 51 doubles in 166 pro games. Big guy, great athlete, reminiscent of a young Matt Kemp — who I rated 50 spots better than Baseball America when he was a prospect, by the way. You know what they didn’t like about Kemp? Sixth round pick.

Kyle Tucker. Flopped in the majors at age 21 last year, but he was in the majors at age 21 last year. Age 21, in the majors. (As Carson Kelly is re-teaching everyone right now for the umpteenth time, we should 99% ignore miniscule samples for young MLB players, and trust the track record.) Tucker is raking in AAA right now, just as he did in 2018. Similar skillset to Carlson but with more consistent dominance on his resume. Reminds me of Shawn Green in many ways. Beauuutiful swing.

Heliot Ramos. One level lower than Carlson & one year younger, and absolutely murdering the baseball with a 177 wRC+. Slaughtered the Arizona League in similar fashion at age 17, before holding his own in the South Atlantic League last year. He’s just 2-for-7 stealing and has no triples this year, and available public metrics make him a poor center fielder, so I’m assuming he’ll contribute the same or less than Carlson on the bases and afield. Slight worries over 25-30% strikeout rates.

Cristian Pache. Born within weeks of Carlson, his defensive reputation is elite, almost surely the best of all minor league guys who can also hit. And he is really hitting in Double-A this year. When you think Pache, think prime Michael Bourn with pop. Or think Harrison Bader for that matter. But the precocious Pache could be better than both. He won’t steal bases like Bourn (his baserunning overall has been surprisingly poor for the past two years), but his burgeoning power far surpasses anything Bourn could ever do. Not that I would ever, ever be tempted to brag, but I had Pache in the overall top 50 back while he was going homerless in 400+ at-bats in A-ball at age 18. That’s how much I loved his defense, and valued his age-relative-to-league. No one else had him even in a top 100 until a year later.

————————————————————-

So those are the four outfielders distinctly better than Dylan Carlson. Now I’ll just rattle off the guys who are ranked above him, but are in fact obviously and objectively worse prospects — and why. I’d rather not use their names because it feels mean, sorta belittling them. Of course, I wouldn’t mind using names if any of them were Cubs. But they’re not, so I won’t.

Outfielder #1 is 24 years old and has never batted even .250 and he’s had an OPS over .700 just once. He is currently hitting .178 in AAA and striking out 44% of the time. Probably playing through injury…but even tossing out this season, the overall track record is absurdly worse than Carlson’s in pretty much every way. Can you guess why on earth he’s ranked above Carlson? That’s right, super high draft pick way back in the day.

Number two is more than three years older than Dylan Carlson, and playing in Triple-A right now. When he was in Double-A last year, he batted .240, slugged under .400, and struck out 215 times in a five-month season. No, I’m not making this stuff up.

Outfielders three and four should be lumped together, as they are adjacent on the Fangraphs list — 48 and 49 spots better than Dylan Carlson — and have much in common. (With each other, not with Carlson.) They share the same organization, both are batting under .240, and both have a lot less power than Dylan Carlson. Oh, and they also strike out much more often than Carlson.

So you have two players, both at a lower level than Carlson and playing much much worse than Carlson (.637 and .647 OPS this year), and, amazingly, they’re both also older than Carlson. One of them by more than a year. It is silly and frankly stupid that they would even be in the same conversation with Carlson, much less ranked above him. And by nearly fifty spots.

Number five is the same age as Carlson, playing in High-A, and has an OPS of .745. This is his career best OPS, in four pro seasons. Any other details are unnecessary.

Outfielder #6 is slightly older than Carlson, and posting a .747 OPS in high-A while whiffing 30% of the time and also drawing fewer walks than Carlson. So he’s older than Dylan, he’s markedly worse, he’s at a lower level, and he has a huge plate discipline red flag. Other than that, he’s got a lot going for him.

I’m going to stop here because I would HATE to have the computer go goofy and lose what I’ve toiled oh-so-diligently to present thus far. Forgive me. I’ll wrap this up tomorrow at some point. But I suspect that the picture is getting pretty clear already — many players who have no business shining Carlson’s spikes are being ranked ahead of him by “professional” prospect evaluators. There are several more such players to come tomorrow.

The fun part will be the final part: parsing out the guys who are neither clearly better than nor clearly behind Carlson. Guys like Drew Waters or Julio Rodriguez for example. Anyway, ‘night all.

[Bob Reed]

“Bob, just curious… what present prospects do you think are undervalued? How about a few to prove that they are better than let’s say 20th. Maybe you are something that other Card fans aren’t recognizing.
Here I’ll help you get started…. Carlson.”

Sure thing, Ny.
I’ll throw together a post late tonight, wherein a few Redbird prospects — including Dylan Carlson of course — are directly compared & contrasted to some much higher-rated prospects from other organizations.

I will try not to be too long-winded. I will almost certainly fail.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks so much for the ongoing updates, BlackHills. Very fine work, sir.

By my math the Cards have about half a million in extra dough before incurring penalties, and two highly rated high schoolers — both around #100 pre-draft, per MLB.com — to try and buy away from college commitments. So they could offer McFarlane (25th round) or Newell (37th) middle of the 3rd round money (roughly $620,000).

Or they could offer each of them just under $400,000 (4th/5th round bonus range). But I doubt that would be enough to get either one. Probably want to use each draftee as implicit or explicit leverage against the other, i.e., “first guy to sign gets the six hundred grand.” I don’t know which one I prefer, but I’d bet they ink one of them.

And that’s not counting any additional bonus money saved once Ralston is signed. There should be something fairly substantial there I’d guess, since he’s a senior.

[Bob Reed]

Paul DeJong is now 1st all-time in opponent’s slugging against the Mets (min. 75 AB’s) with a .789 slg. %

Second is Stan Musial. (Not second among Cardinals, second among everyone.) This shouldn’t be too surprising since Stan was one of the best hitters in history — until we consider that the Mets were founded when The Man was 41 years old.

At age 41 & 42, Musial did this versus the Mets: .405/.515/.684 with 20 walks and 5 strikeouts in 101 PA’s.

[Bob Reed]

“A final study compared the major league performance of The Cardinal Nation top 30 to that of Baseball America’s Cardinal top 30. Our top 30 has consistently outperformed the BA top 30 and the margin has been increasing over the last few years. The MLB top 30 is probably even weaker. I don’t have that data but I have noticed not only the good players they miss but maybe more important who they include.”

That last point is a particularly insightful one, Sooner. The mainstream guys (and nobody is more mainstream than Callis/Mayo at MLB.com) not infrequently cling to stale draft-based and signing bonus-based rankings of prospects for years before adjusting to the realities of on-field professional performance.

Draft slots and signing bonuses are like security blankets to these guys. When ranking prospects, they seemingly cannot survive emotionally without these touchstones. They are all flooded with knowledge and bereft of wisdom. They do not understand this essential fact: signing bonuses and draft positions can only represent perceived talent, as opposed to actual talent. Actual talent only and always reveals itself between the lines.

Signing bonuses and draft spots simply do not matter once a player’s professional career commences. Among other innumerable errors, fixating on signing bonuses and draft spots kept future superstars like Jose Altuve and Paul Goldschmidt entirely off of every top 100 list despite the fact that they were tearing up pro baseball.

———————————————–

“I have no idea what the criteria is but things are changing for our farm system and there shouldn’t be too many who would place them higher than 20… at best.”

I strongly disagree, Ny, and here’s my straightforward supporting argument.
I would encourage you to go back and check the very recent track record of whomever it is that you want to cite as a farm systems expert. Please check any organization or individual who ranks prospects, and see where they ranked Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader and Dakota Hudson. It’s too soon to say much about Hudson, other than he’s pitching great lately and he is clearly NOT a reliever, as incorrectly forecast by numerous sources like Fangraphs, Keith Law, et. al.

DeJong and Bader, however, we don’t need to wait to evaluate. They have combined for 14.0 WAR in just over 1,900 plate appearances, per Fangraphs. In other words, they are providing star-level production. They are stars.

According to every single professional prognosticator they were “possible bench contributors” or maybe “platoon players.” Instead they are stars, according to Fangraphs. (And Baseball-reference values them even higher than Fangraphs.)

I am not praising the farm system out of some misguided directionless homerism, Ny. I daresay that almost nobody here is more negative than I about the front office, the manager, and the general direction of the franchise right now.

I am so (bleeping) negative that I’m boycotting even discussing any aspect of the MLB team until the manager is fired or front office overhauled. My blood boils just thinking about the blunders of the past few years. This organization hasn’t shot itself in the foot. It’s shot itself in the face.

But the Redbird farm is distinctly above average, led by the quintet of top 100 types cited in the earlier post. Take it from the only person on the planet who had Bader in his top 50 prospects for two years running before he hit the majors.

In retrospect I was actually 20-30 spots too low on Harry, and like everyone else I was far, far too low on DeJong. And I may have been too high on Elehuris Montero at #40 before the year started. But that’s what a good evaluator does — he’s too high on some and too low on others, in relatively equal measure. As opposed to the national voices who are almost never too high on any Cardinal prospect. And frequently too low on many of them.

And that’s how we know they are incompetent at evaluating them. In fact it’s the definition of incompetence, or a severely debilitating bias if you prefer.

[Bob Reed]

“I am no prospect expert but I have a hard time believing our minor league system is 25th best.”

“That’s probably because guys like Dylan Carlson and Montero are either not ranked, or barely ranked, anywhere. I guess that Carlson raking as a 20-year-old at AA and Montero’s destruction of A ball as a 19-year-old last year don’t count for much. As mentioned, raters don’t give Cardinals prospects much respect most of the time.”

Yeah, gscott and scard-25, you guys are both correct of course. The reality is, the farm is roughly 10th-best right now. I could see them reasonably ranked as high as 8th or as low as 13th, depending on how the newly minted draftees and rookieballers play over the next seven weeks.

No super-elite top 20 overall prospect types, but five easy top 100 talents (Gorman, Carlson, Herrera, Montero, Knizner), three more definite top 150 prospects (Nunez, Rodriguez, Z. Thompson) and also better than average top 500 depth. (I count 22-24 top 500 types without even considering any DSL players. And two or three of those look promising in the [very] early going.)

Have I mentioned in the past ten minutes that the mainstream professional prospect rankers are the ones who never had Albert Pujols in their top 40, and never had Yadi Molina or Dan Haren in a top 100? Or Paul DeJong or Coco Crisp or Dakota Hudson or Matt Carpenter or David Freese or Harry Bader or Jack Wilson or Lance Lynn or, or, or….

But here’s the thing: it’s not just the fact that they weren’t in the top 100. That’s only half of the problem. The other half is that in most cases they were not anywhere close.

Trust the performances more than the pundits and you’ll be right faaar more often than wrong. And the Cards are getting exciting performances from several minor league individuals so far this year — with much more to come in the GCL and Appy Leagues, I have a feeling.

The Cardinal farm is severely slanted toward hitters right now, and somewhat slanted toward teens in the lower minors. So it superficially doesn’t look as strong as it is. (Just like how 12 months ago Dylan Carlson didn’t look like anything special to the mainstream prospect evaluators. Simply put, they gave him not nearly enough credit for his youthfulness.) But kids grow up, and some become regulars, and a few even blossom into stars.

I feel like I’m shaking my fist at a cloud yet again, but for heaven’s sake haven’t we seen enough radically underrated Redbird prospects over the past 2, 5, 10, 20 years to finally at long last come to the irrefutable realization that we should not listen to Baseball America or Keith Law or Bleacher Report or MLB Pipeline or Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus or any of these people? Because each and every one of them, without exception, has an established track record of incompetence re St. Louis prospects. (Well, I don’t know what Bleacher Report’s record is, or if they even have one, but they certainly do not know what they’re talking about right now.) It’s a tough chore, but just ignore them.

Or maybe this is a better idea: When any of the above prospect “gurus” rank a Redbird player — or the farm system as a whole — just cut the number in half. If they rate Carlson 80th, just assume he should be 40th. If the club ranks 22nd, re-rank them 11th.

You’ll instantly be a better evaluator of Cardinal prospects than all of those so-called professionals.

[Bob Reed]

“Jesus Cruz gives up 5 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks and Memphis’s lead evaporated. Why is Cruz still in Memphis? He’s been awful since his promotion.”

It certainly feels like he’s been bad ever since the promotion to Memphis, but he was tremendous for the first few weeks there. Now he’s hurt (or at least somehow physically compromised) and he’s not telling anyone — I have zero doubt. Check these numbers, they’re crazy.

First 8 appearances in AAA: 8 2/3 IP, 16 K’s and just 2 walks. Only 3 hits allowed, and no runs, earned or otherwise. For those few weeks in Memphis he was as dominant as any minor league pitcher at any level of any organization this year. Three strikeouts for every baserunner permitted — that nearly never happens.

Then he pitched on May 6th & 7th, throwing 17 pitches the first night and 21 the second night. He was shelled in game two, and has been knocked around over and over and over ever since.

Counting the games of May 6th & 7th, his next 14 appearances have yielded these horrific results:
13 IP, 40 baserunners, 27 runs (25 earned), and a frightening 17/19 K/BB tally.

This is not a league adjusting to a pitcher, or even someone who’s tipping every single pitch. This is almost surely an injured guy who can’t throw the ball where he wants, at all.

I agree, BHC, that Jesus Cruz shouldn’t be pitching for Memphis. He shouldn’t be pitching for anyone right now. Not until after he gets diagnosed, and then gets repaired or rested enough to get back to what he was six weeks ago.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks much for the updates, Black Hills.

Just a quick addendum to my earlier remarks. Here are the top 10 career WAR totals per Baseball Reference.com of college players drafted after the first round during the Mo years:

1) Matt Carpenter (13th round) 26.5 WAR
2) Paul DeJong (4th) 9.4
3) Matt Adams (23rd) 5.8
4) Joe Kelly (3rd) 5.6
5) Harry Bader (3rd) 5.1
6) Greg Garcia (7th) 3.8
7) Luke Voit (22nd) 2.8
8) Sam Freeman (32nd) 2.7
9) Seth Maness (11th) 2.1
10) Kyle Bearclaw (7th) 2.0

[Bob Reed]

I’d have Thompson in the 6-8 range alongside Malcom Nunez & Julio Rodriguez, in the 100-120 range among all prospects.

Gorman roughly 30th overall
Carlson 40th
Herrera 60th
Montero 65th
Knizner 70th

Then the three aforementioned. And then a laaarge dropoff to I’m not sure who. Maybe no one else is a top 200 type right now, unless I’m forgetting somebody. Love how Angel Rondon is pitching, and how Arozarena is hitting — but Randy is 24 and already tore up AA last year, so what is he doing there anyway? Urias has been a big disappointment to me, and Helsey’s a reliever now. Lane Thomas might be ninth-best…or Sosa, or Edman, or, or, or.

Since this is a draft thread, I’ll just add that during the Mo era (2008-present) the Cardinals have not had a single college pitcher turn into an MLB starter — unless he was drafted in the first round. First round record, absolutely fantastic. Weaver, Gonzales, Hudson, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha. Seth Blair is the only non-success story. It’s a tremendous track record.

But all other college arms have busted or been relievers. Every single one.

Gomber or Zac Gallen may change that, but right now it is a pretty stark record of mediocrity. Which is why I despised the Cardinal draft fixation on college arms this year to the exclusion of almost everything else. Drafting for need is a fool’s errand, and the front office was foolish in spades this year.

[Bob Reed]

Good catch, Sooner.

He’s got a teammate, also listed at shortstop, also 17, also with an exceptional early BB/K of 5/2, and also with 2 steals — Albert Inoa. Inoa is just 6-for-17 at the plate, but has a triple rather than double, so I suppose he could lord that over his teammate. 😉 Same size as Matute also, at 5′ 11″ and 170.

They’re a pair to spy on this year. I like that the Cards have two DSL teams. Great idea that was long overdue. I pretty much hated the draft, but like very much what the Birds have in the lower minors.

[Bob Reed]

Sosa doubled, tripled, and homered last night.
He also doubled, tripled, and homered the night before.

I’ve got my AARP card and a real good baseball memory, and I don’t recall that ever happening before, for the Cards or anyone else, in the minors or majors. It probably has. In fact I’m almost sure it has. But I never heard of it.

Sosa in AAA last year:
Home OPS .529
Road OPS .893

Sosa in AAA this year:
Home OPS .595
Road OPS .910

Those 54 away games for Sosa (2018/19 combined) weren’t exactly in the best PCL hitter’s parks either. They include just three each in Vegas and Colorado Springs, two in Salt Lake City, none in Albu-Q, and one, last night, in Reno. I have a feeling that Edmundo is held down more than the normal amount by AutoZone Park, not unlike how Tommy Pham was disproportionately killed by Roger Dean Stadium when he played multiple seasons for Palm Beach.

Edmundo just turned 23 a couple months back, and I still give him a slightly better chance than Tommy Edman to be a starting MLB shortstop for someone for a few seasons. Edman (one year older) however has the better chance of being an MLB player, due to his baserunning value and speed-related defensive versatility. Tommy is a natural bench asset — always has the platoon advantage when called upon to pinch hit, can also pinch run, and now looks to be adding “outfielder” to his glovework resume. I’d have them both in the 200-250 range among all prospects.

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