October 28, 2019 at 4:03 pm #112942
Do we sign a free agent outfielder like Puig or Castellanos or do we stick with the house options of Carlson, Bader, Arozazena, Edman, O’Neill, Fowler etc? Nether Puig and Castellanos have a qualifying option attached.October 28, 2019 at 8:11 pm #112945
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We would need to move a couple of guys in a deal before bringing on anyone. I am not all that enthralled with Puig. Castellanos tore things up when he went to Chicago, and it is enticing to take him away from them but again, we likely need to deal a couple of guys first.October 28, 2019 at 8:14 pm #112947
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For me, this points back to discussion we had in the payroll thread. Not likely they are taking on a lot of additional payroll given the increases to current players that are already committed. Moving big salaries is not impossible, but not likely, either, because they would have to give young, controllable talent to do so.October 28, 2019 at 8:31 pm #112950
Number one priority should be a quality LH starting pitcher but #2 is deciding what to do with the outfield. Stay within the organization or go in the free agent market…that is the?October 28, 2019 at 10:46 pm #112970
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Puig is already in his third organization in just a few year. Probably message there. As much as we complain about Ozuna and Martinez defense why would we want to bring in Castellanos who is as bad or worse?
I suspect that left field goes to the one who emerges from the prospect group and Fowler and probably Edman man the other two spots.
If they went really wild they would turn the outfield over to the youngsters and have both Fowler and Carp coming off the bench for pinch hitting and spot starts.
It is not beyond the realm of possibility that both Arozarena and Carlson perform so well in spring training that the Cardinals are forced to give them a shot. Maybe not to start the season but in reserve ready to step in if the vets fail to perform. You also can not assume that Bader and O’Neill will get their average up to the point that they also get a shot. O’Neill was going pretty good when Ozuna was out with his injury. Then he got injured and couldn’t recover. If Bader can hit .260 with some pop he is the center fielder. At this point I would give Arozarena the best shot at starting in left field if Ozuna goes.October 28, 2019 at 10:57 pm #112971
I’m a big fan of Arozarena, and wanted to preface this with that statement.
Lane Thomas might be the best all around player of the group besides Carlson. If Thomas is the starting CF on opening day i would be thrilled.
Inter division trades with your biggest rival don’t happen, but if the Cards ate 4.5 (leaving the Cubs to pay 12) would they take Dexter and send back a lottery ticket? His buddy is the manager now so I would have to believe he would waive the no-trade clause.October 29, 2019 at 6:58 am #112975
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Would you want to pay Dexter $12 million per for 2 years? If not, why would anyone else?October 29, 2019 at 8:40 am #112992
Fowler is really fouling up our young outfielders development. Oh, how I wish he was on a 4 year deal, then we would be more likely to release him at some time in 2020. On a good note, Carlson should push Bader or Fowler to the bench at some point next year, and/or perhaps replace Ozuna and be on the opening day roster.October 29, 2019 at 8:55 am #112996
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I would like to see Mo try to move Fowler and Carp. Not likely but at least try.
Carp and maybe someone else to the Rangers for Choo. (Choo only has one year left on his deal).
Fowler to the Rockies for Wade Davis.
Trade JMart to whoever.
2020 OF: Choo, Bader, O’Neill, Arozarena, Thomas
2021 OF: Carlson, Bader, O’Neill, Arozarena, Thomas
Williams and Adolis-Garcia are still around too. Botton line is we have too many OF’s. I wouldn’t mind seeing what we could get for Bader and O’Neill because I doubt either one will be able to hit enough or in O’Neill’s case stay healthy.
Eventually an OF of Carlson, Thomas, and Arozarena with Williams the 4th guy would be good in my opinion.October 29, 2019 at 9:07 am #113000
I think Carlson is a starter in St.Louis in 2020. Try to unload Fowler even if you have to pay some of his salary.October 29, 2019 at 9:44 am #113003
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Choo has a big paycheck also…so how does that solve anything?Finding some way to get Fowler the hell out of town is the3 solution.As for Arozarena… i am not convinced …before this season he was a .270 hitter.I think he could be a 4th or 5th OF but being the answer …nonsense.I would have no problem will having Bader,Thomas,O
Neill and Arozarena all getting playing time in the OF.Justin Williams and Adolis Gar cia in AAA with Carlson coming up sometime next season.Plus you know Shildt will find a find toi get Edman in the lineup somewtimes in the OF.Then you still have JMartinez (if not trade).With all the prospects/kids the Cards have why trade for a aging high dollar guy?You want a LH bat to help the offense then try and sign Moose to a 2-3 year deal if reasonable salary can be negotitated.He is not a big needle mover but he is reliable steady,doesnt strikeout a bunch and is okay at 3b and can play 1B-2B if needed.Since Carpenter is likely untradeable then he gets DH duties in interleague games,spot starts at 1B-3B and PH duties.He hasn`t earned anything else because of his performance lately.October 29, 2019 at 10:04 am #113004
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As for Arozarena… i am not convinced …before this season he was a .270 hitter.I think he could be a 4th or 5th OF but being the answer …nonsense.
I still don’t get this take. I could see your first statement but “nonsense”…OK then. He came over and in his FIRST season stateside, pushed to the worst hitting environment in the entire minors, and was 34% above league average with the bat. A short promotion (at 15% above league average) ensued. The following year he tore up Springfield to the tune of 111% above league average before scuffling a bit at Memphis (19% below league average). Much gnashing of teeth occurred. He started 2019 in Springfield again and was clearly too good for the league, hitting 62% above league average before hitting even better with Memphis, although the ridiculous ball in the PCL meant he was *only* 51% above league average.
Anyway, despite your scoffing, all reports have his defense and speed as plus, and as we have seen at every stop but one short stint at AAA in his second season in the US, his bat has been at least above average if not well above. You do realize that a 15-20% above average bat (which is the worst he’s done anywhere but the aforementioned stop in Memphis in 2018) with above average defense in a corner spot is an ~4 WAR player, right? I guess if that’s not an “answer,” then maybe it’s you that is buying the “nonsense.”October 29, 2019 at 10:38 am #113005
I saw Arozarena play a number of games this year, and I thought his hitting improved greatly from 2018, and the average showed it. He seemed to hit the ball where it was pitched, hitting to opposite field more frequently. He makes contact, something I wish Adolis Garcia would do.
I’d like to see Arozarena and Thomas given a chance to win the center field job next season. O’Neill will be in his last option year, but like Bader has not proven he can make enough contact.October 29, 2019 at 10:46 am #113006
I have liked the Wade Davis for Fowler idea, although Fowler still has 2 years left, and Davis has 1. Not sure Dexter would waive his No trade clause, and if the Rockies would want Fowler any way. It would probably take a prospect tossed in, and cash sent their way. I believe Davis will rebound next year. But if not, you only have a 1 year commitment, and clear up some of the outfielder logjam.October 29, 2019 at 12:14 pm #113017
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Choo has a big paycheck also…so how does that solve anything?
He only has one year left on his deal and he is actually productive with the bat.October 29, 2019 at 1:27 pm #113022
When I see other teams with outfielders that actually hit for average ,I can’t help but think that none of our outfielders are worth keeping if we could come up with some that can hit.October 29, 2019 at 2:07 pm #113024
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I remain skeptical about Arozarena.I think the 2018 version is reality more than the freakish 2019 season.As for being the4 answer I say nonsense.As for being a piece of the group of OFs that is more reality based than expecting RA to come and take over a spot and run with it.Another reason to take RA 2019 season with a grain of salt was the fact that the whole PCL went nuts hitting this season.I want to see more sustained results before being convinced.So excuse me for not being impressed enough to hop on the Arozarena bandwagon.October 29, 2019 at 2:32 pm #113025
I think Arozarena is really good and should be a part of the outfield group in St. Louis next year.October 29, 2019 at 3:00 pm #113026
What this boils down to is whether or not Ozuna accepts the QO. If he doesn’t, which apparently is likely, then its anybody’s guess as to what the 2020 St. Louis outfield will be like.
And for those out there that think Fowler had a bounce back year, what did he hit, around .239???
r/Esteemed RatOctober 29, 2019 at 3:17 pm #113027
The OF situation is perplexing. Shildt didn’t show much confidence in Thomas/Aroz, and they weren’t exactly behind a trio of all-stars. Can’t sensibly add anybody else if you can’t get rid of Fowler — too much wasting away on the vine that needs to be sampled.
Or else prune the vine to get something in return there and then add somebody who might have less downside risk. However, adding to all of this is the free agent OF crop isn’t exactly sparkling with any slam dunks. I think you’re just messing around on the margins there — not significantly moving the needle.
I’d be tempted to take a chance on the new OF guys, hope Ozuna declines the QO, and concentrate all resources on adding high-quality starting pitching. Making the postseason is fun, but to seriously contend for the big prize, you need a couple of #1 level pitchers who can shut down the best teams.October 29, 2019 at 4:23 pm #113031
I don’t see a dilemma at all here. Go with Fowler Bader and Carpenter (3B/LF whatever) in whatever arrangement works to start the year and back them up with Thomas, Arozarena, and O’Neill. Supplement them with Williams and Carlson.October 29, 2019 at 5:20 pm #113034
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BW52, Edman only hit .283 in the minors before this year. He did alright in the majors. Why isn’t Arozarena just as likely to perform in the majors?October 29, 2019 at 5:22 pm #113035
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Dylan Carlson never hit better than .251 until this year. He’s probably doomed too.October 29, 2019 at 5:29 pm #113036
They need to have a conversation with Fowler, and basically tell him “you’re going to come off the bench, if you don’t want that, give us a list of 12-15 teams that you would accept a trade to and we will see what we can do”. If they have to throw in a prospect outside of the Cards top 25 or so and anywhere between 4-8M/Yr then they should do. It’d be better overall to get as much money off the books for these awful contracts as possible so they can upgrade elsewhere.
– Trade Fowler to anyone – Save roughly $8M, get zilch in return, maybe have to throw in a low level prospect (-8)
– Trade Carpenter – Pay half, get less than zilch in return, maybe have to throw in a prospect or a reliever they don’t really need (-9)
– Buyout Cecil in 2019 (tax reasons) for 7.25 – 500k = 6.75M (-.5M)
– DFA Leone or try to trade him for cap space to Miami, KC, Det, etc
– Trade JMart and O’neill to Detroit for Matt Boyd – Involve a 3rd team who wants JMart if need be, would add a net of $4M to payroll in 2020 (+4)
– Trade CMart, Capel, Mayers, Gant and Munoz to SD for Kirby Yates, Luis Patino and Adrian Morejon, Cards add top notch closer, top 30 19Y/O SP prospect, and a top 150 LHSP prospect and clear several 40 man spots (-5)
– Trade Bader to an AL contender for a top 100 prospect while he still has value
– Sign Kuechel for 3/39M – (+13)
– Sign Moose for 2/32M w an option year – (+16)
– Sign or trade for a one year LHH reclamation project for the OF (think Hunter Pence, only LH bat) – (+2)
– Resign Waino to the same contract as last year – (budget for +6)
Right now cots has them at $146 on guaranteed contracts, the above would put them at $164.5 over 13 players, add in another 17 at 585k avg (gives them 30 fully paid guys), and they are at $175M for the year. That would be less than a 10% increase.
Yadi, Goldy, Wong, DeJong, Moose, LH project(RF or LF), Thomas (CF), Arozarena/Carlson/A. Garcia/Williams, etc
Edman as supersub, Knizner, A. Garcia, Ravelo, Munoz
Flaherty, Boyd, Mikolas, Keuchel, Waino/Hudson/Reyes/Woodford
RHBP – Yates, Gallegos, Helsley, Brebbia, Junior F, Ponce, Reyes, Woodford (Whitley and Hicks midseason)
LHBP – Miller, Gomber, Webb, G. Cabrera
Carlson, Gorman and Patino – top 40
Prospect for Bader – top 100
Knizner, Morejon, Herrera, Thompson – top 150
Is anything proposed a less than 50% chance of the other team accepting?October 29, 2019 at 5:58 pm #113037
Edman is not a sub
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