In honor of Strasburg’s new contract…

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  • #116344
    AvatarBob Reed
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    I thought just for fun I’d list the career ERA+ numbers for some current and past pitchers — starters only. This is not presented in order to establish any proposition or anything. It’s just for kicks, and a context for Strasburg’s contract. (Of course, unlike with regular ERAs, the higher the number the better. Cardinal arms are highlighted, but alas there is no function to make a farty sound when you click on a cub pitcher.)

    Corey Kluber 134
    Whitey Ford 133
    Max Scherzer 132
    Greg Maddux 132
    Kyle Hendricks 132
    Dizzy Dean 131
    Sandy Koufax 131
    Stephen Strasburg 130
    Dakota Hudson 130
    Justin Verlander 129
    Walker Buehler 129
    Jack Flaherty 129
    Gerrit Cole 127
    Tom Seaver 127
    Bob Gibson 127
    Bret Saberhagen 126
    Zack Greinke 125
    Jim Palmer 125
    Mort Cooper 124
    Juan Marichal 123
    Cole Hamels 123
    Mike Mussina 123
    David Price 123
    Bob Feller 122
    Bob Caruthers 122
    Silver King 121
    Don Drysdale 121

    Parisian Bob is a bone thrown to baseball’s reeeal hardcore historians out there. Live it up, dorks. I am one with you.
    For Redbird nerds, before you ask, Howie Pollet only had a career 113 — but it was 127 as a Cardinal across more than 1,400 innings. And that’s with a pair of seasons lost to World War II, as well.

    #116349
    AvatarPugsleyAddams
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    It’s high time that Silver “Freddy-Boy” King has been shown the love, admiration and respect that he so richly deserves! He’s been a Top 6 All-Time player for me since age 8. Thanks for showing everyone the light, Bobby!

    #116358
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    If 31 year old Strasburg is worth $35M a year over 7 years and 29 year old Cole is worth $37.5M a year over 8 years (or more), then what will 28 year old Jack Flaherty cost the Cards if they want to keep him after his first six years? They’d better be working hard on a deal now or he will be priced right out of their reach in 2023 (or sooner, if the next CBA changes that).

    #116365
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    ST25, a very large number with lots of 0’s…..

    If he were to get 600k in 2020, then 7-14-21M in 21-23 (those might be low?) that is just shy of $43M over the next four years. Given his stance on the “fairness” of the arbitration process, etc. it would likely take an above and beyond offer.

    5 years and $65M potentially with two option years around $25M? That sounds high at first, but considering what these guys are signing for, I think it would take at least that and I might even be way low.

    Strasburg’s deal is ridiculous, but as the “face of the franchise”, his World Series heroics, etc, one could assume that those factors surely played into that deal to an extent. The recent deal that might be more comparable to determine his FMV is Wheelers.

    #116366
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I have said it before and I still believe that Flaherty will be a difficult long-term sign. He has been very vocal on union issues.

    #116369
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    ST25, a very large number with lots of 0’s…..

    If he were to get 600k in 2020, then 7-14-21M in 21-23 (those might be low?) that is just shy of $43M over the next four years. Given his stance on the “fairness” of the arbitration process, etc. it would likely take an above and beyond offer.

    5 years and $65M potentially with two option years around $25M? That sounds high at first, but considering what these guys are signing for, I think it would take at least that and I might even be way low.

    I agree with Brian’s comment below you about how difficult Jack may be to sign. Your offer sounds good to a fan which is a sign that it probably is tilted toward the team. My guess is that they’d have to give him a very high offer for him to think about going past his arb years. So to use something like Carlos (adjusted for having it a few years later plus the potential there) as a base, maybe offer him $5M this year, $15M the next three each and two options at $30M each. So you’d be at 6 years and $110M, and he’d be eligible for free agency at age 29 (age 30 season). Maybe that would do it.

    Or you could go full Strasburg I guess and make it 8/$170M and guarantee it with an opt out after year one of his post-arb years. That’s a big outlay of money for a conservative team like the Cards, though. But if he becomes the perennial Cy Young candidate that we think he may be, then it would be a bargain.

    #116376
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Impatient fans will soon be criticizing the front office for not locking Flaherty up, not understanding or accepting the basic reality that it takes two willing parties to get a deal done. If anything happens, it probably would not occur until spring training, anyway.

    I guarantee that if Flaherty expresses a willingness to take a long-term deal that both sides would see as fair, the team would be all over it. They have done it with lesser stars than him.

    Having said that, I would be amazed if he gives up any free agent years. All one has to do is look at how much more top pitchers like Stras and Grienke made by opting out of earlier deals. My money is on Jack going for the big payday at six years. I see him having no reason to give up any leverage now, with much more to potentially gain by waiting.

    #116378
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    BW, I think what you’re trying to say to Cards fans is “Enjoy the next four years”?

    #116380
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    I wonder if Odorizzi is second guessing his decision to take the qualifying offer.

    #116381
    Avatargscottar
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    Well I am on record stating that I don’t like locking up young players unless it is very team friendly. Flaherty is not going to accept that kind of deal so we might as well just go year to year and see what happens. If nothing else we will get a comp pick in 2024 unless the new CBA changes those rules.

    #116387
    Avatarmudville
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    Looking at the overwhelming amount of money that certain teams are throwing at pitchers this offseason does strike fear into the fans that support mid market teams. I want to say, first, that Flaherty is still unproven. One half of a season probably doesn’t tell anybody enough to want to make a commitment. Also, I don’t think you can pass judgement on a 24 year old kid based on his past actions and comments. It appears that he does not have a particular affinity for the team and the fans here now, but that could be something that develops over time. Also, there is the risk of injury for any player, every day. If the Cardinals organization offers him an extension that makes sense, it would be irresponsible for him not to accept it. Say, for example, that he demonstrates that he is the pitcher that everybody thinks he is, and the FO offers him $60M over 5 years, wouldn’t the security of $60M now outweigh the risk of waiting? Obviously, Flaherty will have to make that decision himself. Finally, if Flaherty’s only motivation is the money, then maybe he doesn’t really belong here anyway.

    #116392
    Avatarforsch31
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    If Flaherty continues to pitch like an ace, the Cardinals will have to make a decision. They will know the best on whether or not they could re-sign him. If they feel they can’t get him to sign a reasonable long term contact, I would be in favor of trading him when he has 2 years of team control left. At that point, he should have the most value. That may sound harsh but getting a haul of a few high value prospects is better than getting 1 draft pick. Of course that can also depend on how Thompson, Oviedo, Cabrera and Rondon are pitching, as well.

    #116394
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Giving up two years of an ace still in his 20’s for prospects seems like a bad idea to me – if the Cardinals are still a competitive team. After all, the Cardinals aren’t the Pirates.

    mud, as Lance Berkman wisely once said, “No matter what they say, it is about the money. It is always about the money.”

    #116396
    Avatarmudville
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    Can’t argue with that. But, along with the money, there are other factors that are important to a player.

    #116405
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    How often does any player actually say, “I just went where they offered me the most money”? Instead, we hear all kinds of other explanations, but we never know which are crafted to sound good and which are sincere. I have learned to always be skeptical until proven otherwise.

    Maybe Flaherty has simply fallen in love with St. Louis and will jump at the chance to take the elusive “hometown discount” because he is worried about getting injured or becoming a lesser pitcher over time. I am not holding my breath, however, for the reasons I have already stated.

    #116413
    Avatarforsch31
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    If you don’t get a couple of top 25 prospects for Flaherty, keep him. I just think that if they have no shot at signing him, take the next 2 years of ace quality pitching then use his value to restock with quality. It also is dependent on some of the other pitchers that I mentioned living up to their potential.

    #116415
    Avatarmudville
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    Wong and Dejong signed extensions that took them past their arbitration years. I think they did it because of the security of being set for life regardless of anything else that happened to them.

    #116419
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Of course. Many players have exchanged free agent years for more money up front. I just don’t think Flaherty will join them. Granted, I have no inside info. This is my gut feeling and I would happy to be wrong.

    #116438
    AvatarBob Reed
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    As long as we’re speculating idly — on of all things a guy who’s no less than four seasons from free agency — I think Jack would sign tomorrow for 5 years and $50M, plus two team options at $25M each. His agent can call it a “$100M contract,” which would be the highest ever for a pitcher with so little MLB experience. I think.

    The only way that works out badly for Jack, is if he pitches at a star level nearly every year and stays unusually healthy. And even then, it’s $100M in the bank, and he’s a free agent at the same age Strasburg is now.

    And what would a free agent starter get on the open market in seven years, with the track record I just described? He’d get more than Strasburg just got, that’s for certain.

    In short, I agree with both Muddy and Brian. I believe Jack would absolutely consider a contract that extends beyond his arbitration years — but if and only if it well exceeds the similar length deals inked by Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Carlos Martinez, and Paul DeJong. That’s just rational self-interest. (Especially for a twirler.)

    #116442
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    By the AAV, the Cole deal looks much better than the Strasburg deal. Of course, Cole will be only a year younger than Stras at the end of his contract so the last couple of years for both could be very rough. Congrats to the Yankees on getting one of the best pitchers in the league, as yet another reminder that the Cards will very likely never be in on a guy who’s going to get the biggest contract in a given year.

    #116453
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    With the market cooling some these last couple of years, I am surprised to see pitchers get such pricey deals. Pitchers carry a lot of risk, so to extend them into their late 30s you are likely raising your ratio of cash-for-no-production compared to cash-for-production.

    That would be an interesting ratio to see team-by-team. Wonder if that is available anywhere?

    As for Jack, if I am the club I wait until after the 2020 season to see how things look. Pitchers can blow an elbow at any moment – like I said, risky commodities. It’s odd in a way; they were much more consistent in the days when they threw 250-300 innings per year. Now they seem fragile, even though they throw only 170-180 innings.

    As Larry Dierker said to us one time at a SABR event, they reason for that is the gun. The deal today is to throw as hard as you can for as long as you can. If the number on the gun starts to decline, you gotta rev it up and get it back up there or you won’t be around long. Back in the day you could let up against a few guys not worry about it. Not so much the case today.

    #116457
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Was Cole traded to the Astros from the Pirates or was he a free agent? I don’t think he has enough time to be a free agent but, if traded, who was sent to the Pirates in the trade? It looks like it’s a game of who can get the most cash for the least work. He will be raking in over a million per game. Sorry folks but I am of the opinion that no jock is worth as much money as these guys are making. Sooner or later it will come to an end. The saying that “Greed is Good” is only valid in the movies.

    #116463
    Avatargscottar
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    Cole was traded from the Pirates to the Astros for pitchers Joe Musgrove, Michael Feliz, outfielder Jason Martin and third baseman Colin Moran.

    We may think that players don’t deserve these big contracts but the market is the market. If the owners didn’t have the money they wouldn’t pay it but they DO have the money.

    As I have said before I rarely hear someone comment about a movie star making millions for one movie or a musician making millions for an album yet people complain about athletes making that kind of dough. Why is that?

    #116464
    Avatargscottar
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    I don’t think Flaherty has any interest in signing an extension with the Cardinals unless they did a massive overpay. Everything he has said, every snarky tweet he has tweeted, and every vibe he has given off has indicated he is destined for free agency. He seems to be cut from the same confrontational cloth as Kris Bryant, although Jack’s service time was not manipulated.

    On the flip side, that edginess he has probably helps make him the pitcher that he is.

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 2 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #116476
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    <gscottar wrote: I rarely hear someone comment about a movie star making millions for one movie or a musician making millions for an album yet people complain about athletes making that kind of dough. Why is that?>

    It is that way because everybody assumes that music and movie stars make big money but the amounts are rarely put out in public. Baseball players salaries and contracts are put out in detail to the public and their work can be broken down to very small increments such as $ per pitch. I like it when folks say something is free. Ain’t nothing free yet it sounds good and if you think that money is coming out of the clear blue sky it’s not. Game tickets, TV money and merchandise sales all go into the pot. Yep, the owners make money but maybe they would still be satisfied with less money if the public got a break on items they purchased. I guess my main question is — Where or when will it stop? And how long can you screw over the minor leagues.

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