Madison Bumgarner Thread

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  • #116078
    Avatar1964cards
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    I hate to be a “negative voice” but ….

    – As Brian asked, I do not see the Cards dropping that size of a contract on MadBum.
    – I also recall that MadBum, like Grienke, included the Cardinals on a list of teams he would not accept a trade to.

    I just do not see a match here.

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by Avatar1964cards.
    #116084
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    After looking more into the projections, which I’m sure we all take with a giant piece of salt, and considering something needs to be added to the lineup. Pick between these three lefty starters and the cost, ages and projections.

    A) Costs: 5yr/100M, loss of top 75 draft pick. Age 30-34. 2020 projection: 4.66 FIP, 2.1 WAR, 8.42 K/9
    B) Costs: 3/50M, no loss of draft pick. Age: 32-34. 2020 projection: 4.30 FIP, 2.6 WAR, 6.87 K/9
    C) Costs: 3/30M, trade O’neill/Arozarena and Woodford. Age: 29-31. 2020 projection: 4.38 FIP, 3.1 WAR, 9.94 K/9

    I’m torn between B and C and depending how they want to use the excess OF’s, but A is obviously MadBum, and they should stay far far away unless it’s simply to drive up the contract.

    #116085
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’d take A over B with C last. Kuechel has a very high bust factor buiit in…guys who throw as slow as he does just don’t seem to last. I can’t see him being a good fit. Boyd has only been mediocre in his career and don’t see him being anything better in St Louis. Bumgarner is the most likely of that group to be a front to mid rotation guy going forward, and if we are going to spend big money or prospects, I want the most sure thing, not the incremental upgrade.

    For the record, I don’t really want any of them. I’d take my chances with the rotation pieces we already have or trade for Robbie Ray, my preferred lefty.

    #116095
    AvatarBob Reed
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    “Stepping back, does anyone really think the Cards would go five years/$120 MM or thereabouts for MadBum (or any pitcher in his 30’s)?”

    Well correct me if I’m wrong, Brian — and I so often am — but wasn’t there a 7-year, $190M offer from the Birds for David Price when he was the same age Bumgarner is now? Same age within a matter of days, in fact.

    Now, Price was maybe half a level better; a true ace versus a mere #1 starter. And Price was coming off perhaps his best season at the time. So it makes sense that he would get more years and a higher annual paycheck. But then, Bumgarner (1)destroys the Cubs & Brewers, (2)helps your team at the plate, and (3)has reportedly had some October success on the bump — a claim Price couldn’t make until very recently. So Bumgarner is not without his particular charms.

    Anyway I wouldn’t be shocked if they made an all-out play for M.B., even going as high as 6 years and ~$150M.

    The wisdom of such a move is another question altogether.

    #116106
    AvatarTexasCard
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    He’s has a lot of mileage as he enters his 30s but in 2019 he pitched over 200 innings of sub-4 ERA. He did give up 6 earned to the Cardinals the last time he faced them but those games happen. He also had his most strikeouts (203) and starts (34, matching a career high from 2016) his best season in three years and did this all while taking a liner off his elbow in early July and missing a little time. His average fastball velocity (91.4 mph) and strikeout rate (8.8 K/9, 24.1 percent) are both down a bit from peak levels, but Bumgarner still displayed impeccable command (1.9 BB/9) (from MLB Trade Rumors).

    2017 and 2018 saw major injuries one to his left shoulder resulting from a motorcycle accident and the other a broken hand. He seems to have made it back most of the way from those injuries. When he is right he is damn good. With a better supporting cast like the Cardinals can give him I’d suspect he’d be a good gamble on a 4 or 5 year deal. He made 12 million last year so if he can be had for 100-110 million which is just over 20 million per year I think might be tempted to do it. If it goes any higher forget it.

    The Braves paid 18 million for one year of Hamels who is much older so its gonna cost much more in years but the AAV shouldn’t be too much more. I think he slots in well as the 2 or 3 in the rotation behind Flaherty, Mikolas, Bumgarner, Hudson (or one of the up and comers), Wainwright. I think if the do this they trade Martinez (11 million next season) which partially pays for this deal. I’m actually warming up to the ideal of going after MadBum.

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by AvatarTexasCard.
    #116114
    Avatargscottar
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    Would MadBum make us a better team in 2020? Yes, most certainly barring injury.

    The problem is years 3, 4, and 5. I can just imagine us lamenting his $20M/year in 2022, 2023, and 2024 the same way we are lamenting Carp and Fowler now.

    Another minus is the fact we would lose one of our draft picks to sign him. In my opinion there are more negatives than positives to doing a deal like this. I would probably vote no.

    • This reply was modified 8 months ago by Avatargscottar.
    #116129
    AvatarNigel T
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    We won’t go the extra year, since we claim to have learned from our mistakes. Hamels got 18. I assume that is a higher sum due to one year. Wheeler got his money because people bid it up.
    If Madbum were to sign with us, it would be because his market allowed us to act. 3/70 or 4/80 are still scary,but our concerns about 5/120 or there abouts are moot because we simply wouldn’t be involved.

    #116135
    AvatarGameCard
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    IMO Bumgarner would be a good hire.

    #116285
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    For those who thought he could be signed at a bargain price… As I said before, Wheeler’s deal set his market.

    #116286
    Avatarmudville
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    I don’t want a declining pitcher who is going to spend the next five years running out the clock on his career while raking in $20M plus AVV.

    #116289
    Avatar1964cards
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    I do not believe the Cards Front Office will want to be contenders for MadBum at that price.

    #116296
    thejagerthejager
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    MadBum is fine investment, to a point…

    Waino has held up pretty well and he is much older than MAdBum, and we were paying Waino a lot in those years before last

    #116329
    AvatarNigel T
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    Ok that is the ask. Just suppose teams are offering 4 years @ 78. Would he be worth that kind of investment, and the answer is not if you don’t have to. He’s probably worth every penny if you did it though. Have salaries inflated to the point that 4@80 Is equal to the 4@32 We gave Jeff Suppan? It seems reasonable in that context.

    #116330
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    There is zero chance imo that Bum makes it through that kind of contract without a major injury or something. Also, he’d be the 4th best pitcher on the team, and I’m not sure spending $20M a year on a #4 pitcher is smart.

    #116333
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Is everyone as shocked as I am about the Strasburg deal? He’s a great pitcher, when he’s healthy. He has had over 185 innings twice in 10 years, and is going into his 31 Y/O season.

    To describe it in one word, WOW!

    I was an advocate of signing Keuchel to get a solid lefty for the rotation and not lose a pick, but he’s likely to end up out of the Cards comfort level.

    #116335
    Avatarmudville
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    I’m not shocked because this kind of insanity has happened so many times before. The Wheeler contract is just as outrageous in its context. Time and time again it has been demonstrated that these kinds of contracts wind up being an albatross for their organization. Maybe there’s a shrink somewhere that can figure this out.

    #116361
    Avatargscottar
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    Well the Nationals defer most of their big contracts, which is weird. It seems like kicking the can down the road to me. I guess it is a coup of for their GM Mike Rizzo. He will probably be long gone by the time they are still paying this money out, kind of like the Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla.

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 4 weeks ago by Avatargscottar.
    #116364
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Lerner the owner makes the call on money. Rizzo – like every other GM and PBO – is just a highly paid employee.

    #116435
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #116437
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    The Angels not getting Cole could trigger them to add two of the next tier guys. Madbum and Ryu or something like that perhaps. Philly getting Wheeler almost seems like a steal now.

    Mazara going to the southside likely means they are out on Ozuna, their OF could be very good after Robert comes up.

    #116841
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    M Y S T E R Y T E A M !

    #116842
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #116843
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Uh, ok then. I didn’t realize the Dbacks would even be trying this year. Seems like a poor move for a marginal (and sinking) team.

    #116844
    AvatarLACardFan
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    I didn’t realize the Dbacks would even be trying this year. Seems like a poor move for a marginal (and sinking) team.

    They had $30 million to spend. They just spent $14 million.

    Maybe they can get Calhoun + Akiyama for less than $20 million per year.

    #116845
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    I think at the price the Cardinals should have signed him. All contracts have some risk but that seems like a logical one.

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