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September 27, 2024 at 8:26 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #160 thread – Friday, Sept. 27 at Giants #268070
RBK
ParticipantI should also mention that I overlooked the fact that SF manager Bob Melvin was the Giant catcher who was situated behind HP when the ’86 brawl was sparked when Vince Coleman attempted to score from 3B after Melvin mishandled a pitch to Willie McGee. Melvin recovered and tossed the baseball to his pitcher who tagged Coleman for the out, but the Giants were already incensed that Vince had stolen 2B and 3B while the Cardinals were holding an 8 run lead. Let the boys be boys…Haha!
The impetus behind one of Herzog’s best quotes: “I told him (Giants manager Roger Craig) we’d quit stealing bases if he promised not to hit any more home runs.” Then later: “Does he (Craig) think he invented the game?”
Great rivalry.
RBK
ParticipantLynn may look a little like Chris Stapleton, but I’m pretty sure he can’t sing like him . . .
September 10, 2024 at 4:40 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #144 thread – Tuesday, Sept. 10 vs. Reds #267024RBK
Participanthaven’t seen any sources saying Saggesse is an elite hitting prospect. Everything I’ve read has him as a role player type. He looks to be a util guy in my opinion. Plays all over the infield and has a decent bat. His overall season numbers arent great, but he has made adjustments in the 2nd half. Still only 22 as well for this season.
1st half – .231/.293/.385/.678
2nd half – .276/.335/.496/.831The more worrisome part:
40% chase-rate.
5.9% BB-rate.
.313 OBP.He swings at everything. Those numbers do not project well to the next level, but I certainly wish him well.
RBK
ParticipantHopefully at the end of 2025. I mean got forbid you find something else to bellyache about for another year.
Sorry, you’ve got the wrong guy. But by all means, pls feel free to document what I allegedly have been “bellyaching” about.
RBK
ParticipantWhen are they going to announce that Mozeliak will “remain as an advisor in 2025”?
RBK
ParticipantThey have a lot of options at 1B. Unfortunately, once you factor in the positional adjustment, it’s hard to imagine any of them other than maybe Contreras rising to the level of a solid starter (2-3 WAR). But they have that same problem all over the roster, so it’s pretty much par for the course.
RBK
ParticipantThere is certainly a longer term correlation between attendance/revenue and player spending, but ownership has the causality precisely backward, and I think they cynically know it. Further, they are confounding quantity demand (at a given/current level of product quality) with the shape of the market’s overall demand curve–i.e., the revenue potential of this franchise when properly run is well-documented.
RBK
ParticipantFor me, it would be highly inconsistent to on one hand call the two veterans superstars while at the same time anointing a rookie the face of the franchise. Everyone gets a trophy!
It doesn’t make sense. But in fairness to Denton, if you’re the MLB-paid beat writer for this team, it’s probably getting pretty hard at this point to come up with positive material every week.
RBK
ParticipantHonestly, you could make a decent argument that the face of the franchise is still Musial, Gibson, Smith, Pujols, and maybe even Molina. All representative of an organization living in the past and leaning ever harder on selling its fan base nostalgia.
August 26, 2024 at 9:23 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #131 thread – Monday, August 26 vs. Padres #265626RBK
Participant“Oh the gift that God could give us, to see ourselves as others see us.”
RBK
Participant1. Yes. Arenado and Goldschmidt (For better or worse, they are the players most non-Cardinals fans know when you say “Cardinals.”)
2. No. (Encouraging rookie year, but the sample size is still small. See: Walker, Jordan–2023)
3. See answer to #1.
4. Yes. (I.e., premature, but it gives Denton something to write about.)August 25, 2024 at 8:48 pm in reply to: 23 year old Quinn Matthews is likely better than Gray #265511RBK
ParticipantYes, I’m sure if/when his agent threatens to take a bat-only defensive liability with a 110 OPS+ and 1.4 WAR to the free agent market in *2029*, the Cardinals will be quaking in their boots.
August 25, 2024 at 6:28 pm in reply to: 23 year old Quinn Matthews is likely better than Gray #265500RBK
ParticipantWith Burleson’s production, at a minimum salary, it enables the Cardinals some, somewhat, salary space to maybe help the team. Burly could use that leverage now. But he won’t.He’s a team player.
What leverage? He’s under team control until 2029 and isn’t arb eligible until 2026. He has no leverage.
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
August 25, 2024 at 4:53 pm in reply to: 23 year old Quinn Matthews is likely better than Gray #265484RBK
Participant
RBK
ParticipantThere’s a plentiful supply of lofty titles they can confer on him (along with his salary) to dress up an early transition.
RBK
ParticipantHe’s had 82 PAs w/RISP this year. 82. Do you really think that’s a statistically significant sample for evaluating a player?
And while we’re at it, what do you make of this?:
wRC+:
w/RISP: 110
w/Runners on Base: 161So is the official narrative that Contreras is uber-clutch with runners on, but anti-clutch with runners in scoring position? It’s the same guy.
RBK
ParticipantContreras 2024 wRC+
Low Leverage: 130
Medium Leverage: 153
High Leverage: 137
Overall: 139I’d say he’s been a pretty consistent performer.
August 20, 2024 at 9:08 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #125 thread – Tuesday, August 20 vs. Brewers #265017RBK
ParticipantOli using his bench bullets.
Good decision, but bad outcome.
RBK
ParticipantWe’ve covered this before: listing a bunch of names doesn’t necessarily mean there’s depth or quality at a position.
Every team in MLB has a long list of names of minor league pitchers (and OFs, and 3Bs, and . . .). Do they all therefore have “plenty to work with?”
August 14, 2024 at 2:59 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #121 thread – Wednesday, August 14 at Reds #264262RBK
ParticipantDid someone actually say that?? Hasn’t Walker had reverse splits for most of his minors and major league career?
Per Katie Woo in The Athletic:
“The Cardinals plan to platoon Walker. He’ll start in right field against left-handed starters and come off the bench in games started by righties. That decision might come as a surprise, as St. Louis has been adamant about prioritizing Walker’s development. But with six weeks remaining in the regular season, maximizing lineup production takes priority over player development, leading the Cardinals to temporarily deviate from the course.
With the platoon, the Cardinals hope Walker can help boost the offense against left-handed pitching. St. Louis has the second-worst production against left-handed pitchers in baseball. It is something the Cardinals have struggled with since April. Deploying a roster with seven left-handed hitters didn’t help matters either.”
August 14, 2024 at 2:37 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #121 thread – Wednesday, August 14 at Reds #264255RBK
ParticipantIs Jordan already in the doghouse?
Apparently, he’s been called up to be a platoon OF vs LHP. The same guy the FO thought it was urgently important to send down to AAA get a lot of PAs to “work on things” for his long term development. They just can’t get out of their own way.
August 14, 2024 at 2:30 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #121 thread – Wednesday, August 14 at Reds #264253RBK
ParticipantWe’ll probably never know the full story of what really happened with Mo and Shildt, but I strongly suspect this team would be in about the same place with Shildt (or pretty much any other mgr) in the seat. The roster just isn’t very good.
August 14, 2024 at 1:32 pm in reply to: Could Stubby Clapp as interim manger help the Cardinals? #264239August 13, 2024 at 10:14 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #120 thread – Tuesday, August 13 at Reds #264155RBK
ParticipantWithout the benefit of hindsight, if you were given the choice at the beginning of the season of a +20 run differential team or a -56 run differential team, which would you have chosen? Run sequencing has a high degree of randomness to it–all else equal, a team is much better off scoring more runs than it gives up. And not surprisingly, the best teams have the largest positive run differentials.
August 13, 2024 at 9:29 pm in reply to: StL 2024 Game #120 thread – Tuesday, August 13 at Reds #264148RBK
ParticipantRun differential correlates highly with winning %. The standard deviation of actual W/L versus pythagorean expected W/L is pretty tight, generally +/- 3-4 wins in most seasons. The Rays and the Cardinals are the only two teams in MLB this year outperforming their expected W/L by 6 games or more (both are exactly 6 games better than their X-W/L).
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