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After all the FA activity and roster turnover this off-season, it’s not at all clear the Cardinals got any better.
2024: 60-60; -56 run differential
2023: 54-66; -22 run differentialMeanwhile, they forfeited the opportunity to get at least some modicum of value (and salary relief) from potentially moving Goldschmidt and Arenado at last year’s deadline; they punted on getting meaningful value for Helsley at this year’s deadline (before his salary escalates in arb); they committed themselves to 2 more years of Sonny Gray (age 35 and 36 seasons) for $65mm; and in the process they sacrificed another 2nd round draft pick and slot money, essentially handicapping themselves in a rare draft where they were picking near the top of every round.
They just can’t bring themselves to get off this treadmill of straining mightily every year to try to cobble together mid-80s wins and a WC berth, and as a result they punt almost every hard decision until it’s too late.
Gscottar, I think that’s the more realistic path. The Cardinals have publicly stated three main objectives: 1) Build through the farm system; 2) Maintain a payroll commensurate with revenue (which is now decidedly mid-market); and 3) “Compete every year.” They need to pick two.
You can’t have it both ways, Shady. You can’t dismiss other people’s posts by condescendingly calling them “Average Joe internet Cardinals MB posters” who aren’t “notable professional baseball analysts and commentators” (as you did on the prior page), and then in the next breath say your views are worth posting because we’re all “just fans on an innocent MB.”
Also, posts that straightforwardly present facts and data that you happen to not like because they don’t fit your preferred narrative aren’t “attacks.”
Why would you ask other forum members for their views on lineups when you just got done dismissing them as simply “Average Joe internet Cardinals MB posters” who aren’t “notable professional baseball analysts and commentators” more worthy of your consideration?
But think of the promotions and celebrations of Goldy’s final season (if it turns out to be) and all the tickets it will sell…
My biggest gripe with the legacy deals is if the Cardinals are going to insist on doing them, then don’t turn around in the next breath and plead poverty regarding payroll capacity and/or lecture about “competing every year.”
Contreras hasn’t been the productive bat needed at 3, lately.Especially, vs LHP. Too many Ks, lately for a #2 or #3 hitter. Put him at 5 to relieve some pressure.
July/August vs LHP:
Contreras: 104 wRC+
Burleson: 34 wRC+July/August Overall:
Contreras: 138 wRC+
Burleson: 116 wRC+“Go with this set lineup for a while vs RHP and LHP. It may be the Cardinals best chance of generating more offense.”
(wRC+ vs LHP in 2024/Career)
1) Winn SS (109/91)
2) Donovan LF (71/86)
3) Burleson DH (43/50)
4) Arenado 3B (89/136)
5) Contreras C (153/134)
6) Pham RF (144/130)
7) Goldschmidt 1B (123/168)
8) Gorman 2B (72/98)
9) Nootbaar CF (75/97)Players not in lineup:
Matt Carpenter (124/114)
Brandon Crawford (68/89)
Pedro Pages (55/55)
Herrera (89/79)The three best hitters v. LHP batting #5-7, and another sitting on the bench. Meanwhile, a guy who has been 57% worse than league average vs LHP is batting 3rd. Of course, I’ve shown you these numbers before, so at this point it can’t be attributed to anything other than willful ignorance.
When are you going to hold Burleson to the same standards you hold everyone else to?
Or Matt Foley . . .
“You gents better win some games and snag a wild card, or you’ll be livin’ in a van . . . down by the river!!!”
“The ‘Hungry to Win’ Mentality”??? Sounds like a really bad motivational/self-help book.
When the FO played the “veteran leadership” card in the off-season, it was telling: it’s always easier and more convenient to place the blame on something you can actually fix, rather than pinpoint the much harder and relevant problem–lack of talent and depth–that is far more difficult to resolve (and far more damning of management’s performance).
The moves at the deadline improved the fundamentals somewhat, but this team still has the fourth worst run differential in the NL. They are fortunate to be in the WC hunt at all.
Lots of hanging breaking balls, and they’ve been punished.
1-2 count: HR.
0-2 count: double.
0-2 count: double (on a FB)
Just couldn’t finish anyone off.
JJ wrote:
“Righties have supplied the damage. The block of righties Oli used early in the batting order, has worked.”
Agreed, this is now close to their best lineup against LHP, with the possible exception of Pages spelling Contreras behind the plate. Pham helps quite a bit.
The Cardinals would likely be at least 10 games out of the Central Div. race, right now, if Burleson hadn’t produced in the absence of spme expected high level production from others.
Last week, you claimed Burleson was worth +7 wins so far this season. Now you’ve revised your claim to “at least” +5 wins (“at least 10 games out of the Central Div race”). You just make this stuff up out of whole cloth with no supporting evidence, no consistency, no reconciliation, and no accountability. It’s hilarious.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, Burleson currently is at 1.0 WAR, and is pacing toward 1.5-1.7 WAR for the full season.
For context: For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart:
Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WARI’d say I’m being reasonably objective when stating that Burleson’s been a lot better defensively than I thought he’d be. That’s not to suggest that he’s been really good, but he hasn’t been a glaring liability when he’s been situated in the field.
In only 903.2 career innings in the OF (roughly 100 games):
-11 DRS
-7.7 UZR
-14 OAA
-11 FRV
-11.1 Fielding RAAI don’t know what your definition of “glaring” is, but he’s been a big liability in the field and one of the worst outfielders in baseball on a per-inning basis.
With Pham in the fold, they’re at least trying to mitigate some of their more glaring weaknesses vs. LHP. Makes sense. Granted, several of the names in the lineup haven’t hit well in absolute terms against LHP this year, but they have better long term track records, and more importantly, they’ve hit LHP considerably better than the other options being moved to the bench.
As usual, you’re not posting in good faith. I’ve shown you the numbers vs LHP. Those are FACTS. Yet you stubbornly refuse to acknowledge them–let alone actually address them–and instead just try to change the subject.
As to your prior question, which repeats for the umpteenth time your arbitrary and irrational fixation on strikeouts to the exclusion of everything else: I prefer to look at more comprehensive measures of productivity, rather than focusing on one component statistic that only tells part of the story. For example:
Vs. LHP (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/wOBA/wRC+)
Siani: .194/.247/.264/.511/.230/47
Burleson: .196/.224/.294/.518/.227/45One is a fleet, GG-caliber, defense-first CF. The other is . . . not.
Now let’s return to the Gorman comparison:
Vs. LHP (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/wOBA/wRC+)
Gorman: .196/.257/.361/.618/.271/75
Burleson: .196/.224/.294/.518/.227/45To be clear, Gorman has been pretty bad vs. LHP this year, but he still has a 33 pt higher OBP and 67 pt higher SLG than Burleson. Said differently, he’s made fewer outs (of all types, not just Ks), hit for more power, and created more runs per PA. He’s been roughly 20% more productive than Burleson in the split this year. So I ask again (for the third time): why don’t you hold Burleson to the same standards as you’ve held Gorman?
Vs. LHP (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/wOBA/wRC+)
Siani: .194/.247/.264/.511/.230/47
Burleson: .196/.224/.294/.518/.227/45RBK, gripe at Marmol, he makes out the lineup, not me. There’s a pretty good chance Marmol prefers Burleson’s competitive ABs to Gorman’s.
Yes, with his 45 wRC+ vs. LHP, those have been some really “competitive ABs” . . . In the same way a nail is competitive with a hammer.
Once again, vs LHP:
Burleson: 45 wRC+
Gorman: 75 wRC+So I’ll ask again, since you didn’t answer: Why don’t you hold Burleson to the same standards vs. LHP as you hold Gorman?
And why are you telling me to gripe at Marmol when you’re the one who’s on here frequently criticizing and second-guessing his lineups. But of course, when it comes to Burleson being in the lineup, suddenly you turn completely credulous and compliant, totally uninterested in applying any critical analysis of the stats and evidence to the lineup choice. Strange.
wRC+ v. LHP (2024/Career)
Contreras: 194/136
Pham: 159/130
Carpenter: 124/114
Goldschmidt: 117/167
Arenado: 88/136
Nootbaar: 79/98
Donovan: 77/90
Gorman: 75/100
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Carlson: 64/123 [Traded]
Siani: 47/47
Burleson: 45/51I’d like to see Burleson pick it up against lefties. But Oli sure seems to like Burly hitting high in the order vs LHP despite the stats. I suggested Burleson batting 6th, for now, vs a lefty starter.
vs. LHP:
Burleson: 45 wRC+
Gorman: 75 wRC+Why don’t you hold Burleson to the same standards vs. LHP as you hold Gorman?
Whatever you think Oli “sure seems to like,” the stats chronicle the actual production. It’s strange, you regularly second-guess and criticize Marmol’s lineup choices on here, yet when it comes to Burleson, you’re suddenly completely credulous and compliant.
