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Sure do like that .331 BA and .372 OBP at Memphis in 2022 over 109 games.
Well, you probably shouldn’t “hang your hat” on a single season in AAA, especially one built on a .350 BABIP, a figure he’s hasn’t come close to reaching at any other level. We all know he isn’t a selective hitter and doesn’t walk much, so his production is almost entirely a function of BABIP. What do you think is a sustainable BABIP for him at the MLB level? Do you think .330-350 is his “true” baseline (that’s a prime-Goldschmidt level)?
So far, his MLB BABIP is .255. I think that number is likely to go higher over a larger sample. But he’s slow, and his barrel rate was 26th percentile, so it’s hard for me to imagine that number going up 80-100 pts unless he gets extremely lucky.
He has always had a low K% (and a correspondingly low BB%–they’re related). But the objective of the game isn’t to not strike out, and it’s generally harder to K (or BB) when you don’t see enough pitches to reach many 2-strike counts.
E.g., Yadier Molina: 10.8% K%, 6.3% BB%
He’s 19th percentile in chase rate. And that doesn’t include the pitcher’s pitches in the zone that he chases even when he’s ahead in the count. He has plus contact skill, but it often works against him because he makes a lot of contact on bad pitches that he can’t do anything with.
He’s like a left-handed Yadier Molina, minus the elite fielding at a premium defensive position.
Burleson’s slash line at AAA –
.306/.356/.482/.842
24 home runs and 109 RBI in 154 games. And that was really mostly in his second professional season. I wouldn’t hang my hat on his major league record after only 400 plate
appearances. Just my opinion. And I also think he will be able to handle LF and 1B. He may not look like it, but he’s an athlete.Re Burleson’s fielding ability, I’ll stick with the data and what the Cardinals told him in his exit interview.
Re his hitting, I wouldn’t hang my hat on basically one season in AAA, either. In his 2022 AAA campaign, which constitutes the bulk of the numbers you cite, he had a .350 BABIP. He hasn’t come remotely close to replicating that at any other level. As we all know, he’s not a selective hitter and doesn’t walk much, so BABIP is pretty much everything for his offensive production. Do you think he’ll be a consistent .330-.350 BABIP type at the MLB level (he’s currently sitting at .255)? That’s basically prime Paul Goldschmidt territory.
To be clear, I’m not basing my views on just 400 PAs in MLB, I’m basing them on the peripherals and process: a >35% O-swing%, 3.5 P/PA, a pedestrian BB%, a 26% barrel rate, and ISO/power numbers that don’t compensate for those other measures. Further, if you look at the average “translation” of Memphis stats to the MLB level for recent Cardinals players, the falloff averages between 100-200 pts of OPS. So far, Burleson’s falloff has been right in that range.
His offensive game is going to have to change for him to stick as a regular precisely because he doesn’t have anything else to fall back on. He needs to work deeper counts, stop swinging at bad pitches, take more walks, and get on base at a higher % (i.e., burn fewer outs per unit of production). Hopefully, with greater plate discipline, his power numbers will also improve. Can he do all of that? We will see . . .
In only 386.1 innings in the OF last year, Burleson had -4 DRS, -2.3 UZR, and -7 OAA. In other words, the advanced metrics strongly corroborated the “eye-test”: he was really bad. It is no wonder the Cardinals informed him that he couldn’t be trusted in the field. Will 15 pounds make that much of a difference? Color me skeptical.
And if he moves to 1B, it’s basically the same issue I highlighted previously about being a DH: if you’re going to be a bat-only 1B, you have to hit a *lot* better than a John Mabry-type (90 OPS+) in order to justify playing time. He would need to be in *at least* the 110-120 OPS+ territory, arguably higher.
Both Burleson and Saggese have similar profiles and similar expectations.
For their bats, perhaps. But therein lies the problem: Saggese is a middle infielder whom most scouting reports view as an average to perhaps slightly below average fielder at a premium defensive position, while Burleson is an entirely one-dimensional, bat-only player who is a significant liability in the field. The bar for Burleson’s offensive production is (and should/must be) much higher.
Siani is the safe and sane move. But what the heck, pull the pin on Scott and dive for cover.
Yep, it’s the move of a franchise that now seems perpetually trapped in the “middle” . . .
Great for Flaherty today. But he sure wasn’t exceptional in his last couple seasons with the Cards.
Neither was Rom for the Cardinals or Orioles, yet here we are in your thread about him based on a single 3-inning spring training start.
