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The defense is what concerns me at the catching position. Depending on the plans for robot umps, a catcher’s ability to steal strikes with proper framing has immense value and Yadi is one of the best ever in this department. I also worry about calling games. I just read an article this week about how Jordan Montgomery is throwing is fastball significantly more with the Cardinals because Yadi picked up on the value of the pitch and the lack of use. Stuff like that worries me for next year because Yadi’s brain and ability to call games and figure out how to use his pitcher to get hitters out is not an easily measurable skill. It also is not something that can easily be passed along to others. That is more in the art of catching and I worry this staff could struggle without his input or involvement in the planning and execution of a pitching approach. If I had more faith in Maddux’s skills in this area, I might feel better about getting a young catcher involved. But, I don’t feel confident Maddux can fill those gaps.
The only reason Murphy is up for discussion is because the A’s have Shea Langeliers, who they just called up and is considered a top prospect, as well. They got Langeliers from Atlanta in the Olson deal and he will be cost controlled for the next three years, while Murphy is going to start seeing raises in arbitration.
I have to agree on the catching need. I understand they have spent a lot of time developing Herrera and I tend to prefer rolling with homegrown talent. That said, catcher is such a beast of a position for guys to develop. The past two heirs to Yadi have not exactly looked strong at the big league level (Carson Kelly, Knizner). Kelly has had extended playing team in Arizona for the past two years and has only been okay at the position. I think Knizner would be a step below him if he wound up being a full-time starter for multiple years. Herrera might turn into a solid player, but catching prospects give me some pause because it just seems a lot of them get the big leagues and can’t really manage the full plate of responsibilities thrown at that position.
With that said, if the Cardinals can pull together a package of Sean Murphy that is not exorbitant, I think they should go after him with the expectation he is their catcher of the present and future. He’s a proven commodity at the big league level, who can hit and plays a stellar defense behind the plate. He’s only 27, too. I would be all in favor of grabbing him and expecting him to be your regular catcher for the next three years. If that blocks Herrera and gives the Cardinals a trade chip to plug in other holes, so be it.
Gallo would be an interesting pillow-contract type. I’m curious what his market will look like next year, because this season has been horrible. That said, if he goes for the prove-it deal, no way he comes to St. Louis where he doesn’t have a clear path to plate appearances. If the Cardinals are adding to their outfield without getting rid of anyone currently on the roster, it will have to be a cheap, veteran 4th outfielder type. They would have to settle for someone like Kiki Hernandez or Andrew McCutchen, if dipping into free agency. I will also re-state Jason Heyward, if the Cubs can’t find a trade partner and end up just releasing him.
A guy that would intrigue me, assuming he gets released, is Jason Heyward. The Cubs are not bringing him back in the final year of his contract. He’s only 32 and a very well respected player. Yes, he does not hit. But, the guy has always had an outstanding glove and runs the bases well. Assuming he rehabs well from his injury, I think he would be a great clubhouse presence to have on the roster, who can cover CF and RF in a pinch if needed on a regular basis.
He does have a season left on his deal with the Cubs, so it is possible they can find a trade partner with the Cubs hitting the majority of his salary rather than just releasing him with nothing in return. He could be a nice buy-low veteran and it is possible his bat could come around, too. He will never be the star everyone thought he was going to be, but he can still be productive.
Just because the Cardinals don’t sign “big time” free agents, doesn’t mean they shouldn’t. And no one here seems to be advocating for signing the big time free agents that are in their prime years. I don’t think anyone thinks the Cardinals need to dive into Gerrit Cole or Corey Seager pools for negotiating. The discussion here is primarily centered around the Cardinals excepting they need to augment the talent they have developed or acquired with some intelligent, low-risk gambles.
If free agency started tomorrow, I don’t think anyone here would expect the Cardinals to go after Aaron Judge or Carlos Correa. The years and money on a contract like that would significantly impact their roster flexibility in the future. What’s being discussed here is either going after older players that require short-term deals, either on an extremely high end (Verlander, deGrom) or guys trying to reclaim their careers like we saw with Quintana with Pittsburgh or Cueto with the White Sox.
Gscottar is exactly right on the Cardinals money situation. They spend plenty, they just haven’t spent it wisely. Part of that is they are trying to build a roster around their home grown talent, which is great. But, they end up signing guys who either eat up too much of their budget or end up blocking playing time for younger guys that makes it hard to properly evaluate. Look at the Fowler contract. They kept running him out there until injuries took effect because he made too much to bench. Meanwhile, this logjam of outfielders built in Triple A and the Cardinals didn’t know what to do with them and ended up losing Adolis Garcia for nothing and traded Arozarena in a deal that has ultimately been a loss to the Cardinals. What happened with Garcia and Arozarena weren’t crippling mistakes, but still reflect a poor use of resources by the organization, which just compiles to mistake created by targeting Dexter Flower and signing him to a five-year deal. They would have been just as good signing a guy like Carlos Gomez that year to a one-year deal and freeing up their money and roster to future moves. Basically, unless a guy is a difference-maker, the Cardinals probably need to avoid locking anyone up beyond three-years.
deGrom can and will likely opt out after this season. He is the guy I hope the Cardinals go after this winter. He’ll be 35 next June, so he’s not young. But, I think the Cardinals would be wise to start targeting guys like deGrom or Verlander on short-term, high dollar deals moving forward. They need to get away from this Matz-type signings. They are cheaper based on AAV, but they end up causing issues for them in their budget and roster when they ultimately don’t pan out. The Cardinals need to either start going with young guys or load up on short-term deals for guys who either have limited time left on their career (deGrom, Verlander) or are trying to reclaim their careers (Quintana, Cueto).
I think you can include James Naile and Kodi Whitley to the list of potential DFA/non-tenders, too. Naile has been solid, but he’s about to be 30 and is a career minor leaguer. Whitley just looks like a guy who can’t get advanced hitters out.
I don’t think it’s a massive issue, as I think Oviedo has limitations and Nunez profiles as a guy who can’t really play defense anywhere other than maybe 1B. Right-handed hitting 1B only types need to hit a ton to have any value and those guys don’t come around very often.
That said, Jose Quintana could have been signed in the off-season. He signed with Pittsburgh on a 1-year, $2 million contract and now the Cardinals are sending two young players to them for a player who was signed on the cheap. This wouldn’t upset me as much if Mo wasn’t wasting money and roster spots on guys like Drew VerHagen, who is making $2.5 million this season and $3 million next and can’t compete in the big leagues or TJ McFarland, who is making $2.5 million this year. This is a bad cycle for a GM/VP of Baseball Operations to be following, chasing bad moves with more money and prospects.
I wonder if Mo could swap Dickerson for Snell? They could use some outfield help and Dickerson is off the books after this season. Might help them with some of their luxury tax concerns, assuming the Cardinals take on Snell’s full contract for next season.
Yes, I mistyped Carlson’s age in my previous post. I suppose that invalidates everything I mentioned, so let’s just go with this concept that Carlson is a replaceable player that comes around every season.
Carlson recorded a 2.6 fWAR last year as a 21-year-old and already has 2.1 WAR accumulated this season. I think believing he will plateau around a 3 fWAR player might be underselling his potential. I also think the idea of easily replacing a player like Carlson is undervaluing what the Cardinals have in him. This is a 23-year-old switch-hitter with good contact skills, solid power, and the ability to play all three outfield positions. I understand nothing about him is elite, but having a kid like this that is just good all around is not something you just replace.
I still don’t think Soto gets moved this week. I could see him going in the offseason, but I think most of what is occurring will ultimately be precursors to a deal over the winter.
Tigers are willing to listen to offers on Tarik Skubal. He’s 25 and under control through 2026 and won’t hit arbitration until 2024. Guessing Detroit is just looking to cash in on his good season hoping to land a couple of quality prospects. That said, Al Avila has a history of really awful trades and getting a young lefty who is pitching like an ace and under control for the next few years.
Someone mentioned a player that averaged 295 and saying he didn’t really help his team that much cause it was a lot of singles. That would only be true if the rest of his team just couldn’t hit. So it’s not his failure, his mates were failures. I’d take a 295 single hitting guy on my team. Surround him with quite a few other similar guys who can play good defense, throw in a couple big boppers, a smart catcher, and my offense would be set.
The last sentence explains why a hitter hitting an empty .295 isn’t as valuable as a guy who hits .260, but can drive the ball for extra bases. Pitching and scouting is too good these days to expect a lineup to string together several singles to score runs. Teams need boppers to pile up runs.
The game isn’t played the same way it was two decades ago. That’s not to say contact shouldn’t be valued and I think you are seeing good teams realizing they might have gone too far with the on-base (walks) and slugging focus. I think the same can be said about pitching, too. The past two drafts the Cardinals have drafted guys who have good velocity, but their primary tools are mixing pitches and being able to throw everything for strikes, as opposed to grabbing nothing but Nuke LaLooshs.
Here is a question that ties somewhat to Juan Soto. Should the Cardinals consider going after Andrew Benintendi? He’s clearly not Soto and about to be a free agent. But, he will come a lot cheaper and provides a solid left-handed bat. He can play LF and DH. That could slide O’Neill to RF with Carlson in CF.
Batting average has been isolated because it was a little overvalued in the past. There was a misconception a good hitter had to hit around .300 and anyone hitting around .300 was a good hitter, which was not true. Much like guys with a lot of barrels or average a high exit velocity does not necessarily make a good hitter. The one example of the batting average fallacy that always stood out to me was Juan Pierre. He was a career .295 hitter, but he only slashed .295/.343/.361 with a wRC of 86. So, he was really good at hitting singles, but it did not really do much for the team.
Looking at batting average during Pierre’s career made you assume he was a good player, but the reality is he was just okay and a lot of his value was highly dependent on having a strong cast around him. It’s the same issue people face when they focus on barrel rates. For example, Gary Sanchez is 8ths in baseball for barrels per plate appearance and he’s only slashing .215/.274/.402 and he only has a wRC of 90. At the end of the day, you can’t isolate one statistic to determine good hitters. You have to look at the whole and some of these statistics only exist to give more insight, which is why batting average is slowly shifting from focus.
I don’t really see the issue with drafting Pinder where the Cardinals did.
Here is the full draft from that class.
https://www.baseball-almanac.com/draft/baseball-draft.php?yr=2017
The picks between Pinder and the Cardinals next selection of Wilberto Rivera aren’t exactly littered with high-quality talent. I’m guessing, if you looked at the careers of that entire round, most of them probably ended up out of pro ball well before this season. The fact Pinder has been good enough to advance to Double-A and stick with the team for five years is pretty decent at selection 214.
If the Nationals are wanting to unload Corbin with Soto, they better be prepared to accept way less in terms of prospects. That kind of deal would have to be similar to what the Dodgers sent to Boston for Betts and Price’s massive contract. The Red Sox acquired three players in that deal – Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs, and Connor Wong. That was one major league-ready outfielder and two decent prospects. Now, some adjustments would have to be factored in for age, since Soto is 23 and Betts was 29 at the time and about to hit free agency.
Out of curiosity, who should the Cardinals have selected instead of these picks?
Everyone knows the baseball draft is a massive crap shoot and it only becomes more difficult to find talent with each passing round. Given the Cardinal’s recent success in amateur scouting, I think they probably have a solid gauge on what lottery tickets they want to select and try to develop. The benefit of the franchise is they seem to have a pretty good understanding of what they want from players and how to train them. There is a reason why several franchises can’t figure out how to build a roster through the draft – they don’t know what kind of talent they want and/or they don’t know how to build them into big league talent.
I think you are estimating low on Soto’s salary for next year. He’s making $17.1 million this season through arbitration and next year will not be a modest bump. He’ll probably be over $20 million. Not saying that would deter SD from acquiring him, but Soto is not going to be cheap again for a long time unless something dramatic happens like an injury.
I think the arguments explaining why Soto doesn’t work for several teams is a prime example of why he will not move mid-season. Once winter rolls around, these teams will have a better understanding of where their payroll is and time to move some pieces to figure out how they want to build a roster around a guy that will be making around $25 million in arbitration if he doesn’t sign an extension. If he moves, Soto will go during the winter.
The best part of the Soto news is that he probably isn’t moving for at least a year and a half. I think this news is just the Nationals dangling him into the news in hopes some team gets stupid and makes a ridiculous offer. But, I don’t know if any front office operates like that these days. If they do trade, I think it will occur in the winter and probably not until he’s down to his final contract year. I think that is the only way the Nationals will be able to justify lowering their asking price far enough for a team to meet their demands.
In terms of the Cardinals, I don’t think they will be a factor. Mo takes advantage of situations to make trades work. It took advantage of an aging player in the final year of his contract to land Goldschmidt and the large contract and NTC to get Arenado. Those deals make it easier for Mo to complete without unloading the farm system because the options are limited for what the other team can do to move the player. The last deal Mo made for a guy who didn’t have to be moved was probably Ozuna and that went horribly. Also note, all those big deals occurred in the winter. He looks to add complementary pieces at the deadline, if he makes any more at all.
If the Nationals attach Corbin to Soto, the return should be very minimal. The guy is still owed $59 million after this season. Between paying that off and what will be owed to Soto, the Nationals will not be able to get both financial freedom and a prospect haul.
I think the appeal of acquiring Snell is that it shouldn’t cost you much more than money. Based on reports, the only reason SD would consider dealing him is to get his money off the books for next season, so they have some breathing room under the luxury tax to make some moves, including resigning Musgrove and/or Clevenger. If the Cardinals are willing to pay the rest of the $13M he’s owed this year and $16M next year, they should basically tell Preller the best you are getting someone like Luken Baker from the Cardinals system.
