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It isn’t analytics, the players are chasing the ISO power paychecks, that’s where the big bucks are. Owners endorse this approach with the contracts they give out.
Hit 30 HR’s with a .230 BA and you’ll get paid much better than 8 HR’s and a .300 BA.
Hit 30 HR’s with a .230 BA and you’ll get paid much better than 8 HR’s and a .300 BA.
I’ve been reading this thread and I think some people are conflating cause and effect with correlation. Dollars are the cause (the factor that behaviors react to and leads to the outcomes we see). In other words, behaviors adjust to what pays, as jj says.
Having said that, you can certainly make a case that owners and the analytics staffs don’t always analyze the data properly and make misguided judgements as a result. For example, I think analytics are too focused on individuals, i.e., the whole it more important than the sum of the parts. The problem is much more complex than this and the analytics should focus more on the synthesizing of a collection or set of individual metrics. Think about your chemistry class — combining some things creates a reaction while combining others doesn’t. Somewhere along the way, say when you get to adding 7th or 8th guy to the roster, some things other than an individual’s metric has to take on more value.
Someone mentioned a player that averaged 295 and saying he didn’t really help his team that much cause it was a lot of singles. That would only be true if the rest of his team just couldn’t hit. So it’s not his failure, his mates were failures. I’d take a 295 single hitting guy on my team. Surround him with quite a few other similar guys who can play good defense, throw in a couple big boppers, a smart catcher, and my offense would be set.
The last sentence explains why a hitter hitting an empty .295 isn’t as valuable as a guy who hits .260, but can drive the ball for extra bases. Pitching and scouting is too good these days to expect a lineup to string together several singles to score runs. Teams need boppers to pile up runs.
The game isn’t played the same way it was two decades ago. That’s not to say contact shouldn’t be valued and I think you are seeing good teams realizing they might have gone too far with the on-base (walks) and slugging focus. I think the same can be said about pitching, too. The past two drafts the Cardinals have drafted guys who have good velocity, but their primary tools are mixing pitches and being able to throw everything for strikes, as opposed to grabbing nothing but Nuke LaLooshs.
With emphasis on launch angle and power stats, I wonder why MLB aggregate slugging percentage has gone down over the past 2 decades.
“…, I wonder why MLB aggregate slugging % has gone down over the past two decades?”
That’s a very good question and I don’t have a definitive answer. But, I have a theory, not based on facts, just the eyeball test and my gut feelings, fwiw.
I believe 20% of all mlb batters still hit old school. They use the whole field, prioritize contact, hit behind runners, etc.
That leaves 80% that are gripping and ripping. They slug, but they also hit into shifts with a pull approach, roll over outside pitches and K, a lot.
Of that 80% of MLB swinging for the fences, 10% are true power hitters who can be successful with this approach.
The other 70% of mlb wanting to be power hitters are only moderately successful.
It’s that 70% that are ruining their stats and mlbs stats you speak of. Grip and rip is an all or nothing approach, we all know this. Too many wanna-be power hitters chasing the power paychecks and not succeeding, IMO.
Sure seems that way, jj.
Runs per game – down. Hits per game – down. BA – down. OBP – down. Slg. – down. OPS – down. Maybe the pitching isn’t better. They just know how to place the ball vs. all the grip and rip batters. High heat. Look at the way they’re pitching to Gorman now.Yes, it makes sense. I think other factors include more and better information about tendencies, which lead to different pitching approaches, specialized pitching matchups, specialized defenses, etc. for each hitter. Weaknesses are exposed and exploited.
Of course, hitters know more about pitchers, too. But as suggested, some number of hitters just seem to grip and rip. If pitchers did that, just throw as hard as they can, they’d get destroyed.
As you alluded to in specialized defenses, Brian, the shifts may be part of the cause. I hope they do indeed outlaw them in 2023.
I know I am in the minority. I have no problems with shifts. But it will be interesting to see how they outlaw them and how they penalize transgressions.
I haven’t seen penalties for not following the no shift rule in Double-A and Class-A. My guess is that the second base umpire would see it immediately and stop play until the defenders return to their proper positions. Maybe they warn the dugout, but I don’t imagine it would be a repetitive problem.
With the new plan to implement the pie-shaped no-fielder zone behind second base, the defenders will have to be even further toward their nearest baseline and away from second.
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