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If the Nats think they are going to get a KINGS RANSOM for Soto they are mistaken. Not going to happen. I am certain we won’t. I suspect they will eventually realize this and accept what they think is the best offer they have and move on. I just hope our’s is the best offer. I believe it will be. And I also believe it will be a deal where most MLB Insiders believe was a good one for both teams.
r/Esteemed Rat
What would 2016 Bryce Harper commanded in a trade? 23 years old with 2 more years of control. How about 2015 Mike Trout? How about 2005 Albert Pujols?
To help your argument though we can look at Yelich and he was 25 and the haul Miami supposedly landed I don’t think any of them are still in the organization. Or look all the way back to Miguel Cabrera and the face can’t miss Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller along with 5 other prospects went to Florida. And none of them lived up to much, until Miller went to RP in BOS 5 years later. Many times it’s better to take the sure thing. But it’s awful hard to give up the possi of what Walker, Winn, Liberatore, Gorman could all be for probably 2 years of Soto. I’d be willing to say whoever they would trade their WAR in STL would be significantly higher over their kept careers than Soto could put up in 2.5 years.
This organization has been really good at consistently being competitive every year for 22+ years now. It’s hard to think they would consider risking solid to all-star production at 3-5 positions for 2 years of 1 guy, who if you’re going to keep beyond that is going to absolutely break the budget.
The best part of the Soto news is that he probably isn’t moving for at least a year and a half. I think this news is just the Nationals dangling him into the news in hopes some team gets stupid and makes a ridiculous offer. But, I don’t know if any front office operates like that these days. If they do trade, I think it will occur in the winter and probably not until he’s down to his final contract year. I think that is the only way the Nationals will be able to justify lowering their asking price far enough for a team to meet their demands.
In terms of the Cardinals, I don’t think they will be a factor. Mo takes advantage of situations to make trades work. It took advantage of an aging player in the final year of his contract to land Goldschmidt and the large contract and NTC to get Arenado. Those deals make it easier for Mo to complete without unloading the farm system because the options are limited for what the other team can do to move the player. The last deal Mo made for a guy who didn’t have to be moved was probably Ozuna and that went horribly. Also note, all those big deals occurred in the winter. He looks to add complementary pieces at the deadline, if he makes any more at all.
You are spot on Kyl. Mo usually only makes big trades when he knows he can exploit some leverage over the other team. He is pretty good at it. The problem is those situations only come around every so often and I don’t think Soto represents one of those situations. The Nationals don’t have to trade him.
The Cardinals constantly preach building from within so I can’t imagine they would ship off three or four of their top 10 prospects for a player they would only have 2.5 years. That would be completely against their business model.
As I have said before Mo hasn’t made a significant deadline trade since 2014 (Lackey). I don’t know why some think things will be drastically different this year. A more likely scenario is a trade for a middle or back end rotation piece or an average reliever, if anything at all.
One of the announcers at the Home Run Derby stated that Soto WILL be traded within the next two weeks. He didn’t say which team he thought Soto would be traded to.
I guess I don’t understand the comments that he would just be a 2.5 year rental. In the past big time sluggers have fell in love with St. Louis and decided that’s where they want to stay and play. Why wouldn’t the same happen with Soto?
I am sure Pugs can make a recommendation here……
r/Esteemed Rat
I will also add that the Cards don’t have an absolute need on the MLB level for a number of their top 100 prospect types, which is a rarity and could allow them to actually swing a big trade…
Walker is blocked by Arenado and Goldy
Winn could be useful but the Cards do have Edman and Sosa in a pinch
Herrera is probably the one untradeable guy with no catcher on the big league club after this year
Burleson is blocked all over the OF and DH
Libby and Graceffo would probably be useful.
I guess what I’m saying is that a trade that included, say, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and one of Liberatore or Graceffo, with maybe a sweetener in the deal, wouldn’t crush the farm or the future, in all likelihood. I’ll also add that $33M annual salary wouldn’t be ideal, but the bank certainly wouldn’t be broken and depending on the structure could roll in for the big bucks right around when Goldy leaves and Arenado is getting to the end of the stretch.
A future lineup of Edman/Winn, Goldy, Soto, Arenado, Gorman, O’Neill, Yepez, Herrera, Bader looks pretty solid. Then you upgrade the pitching staff with Manaea this off-season, get anything coming back from Flaherty and you’ve got a potentially great team.
They need to just get out of the talks. It’s going to cost too much for my liking. As much as I’d like to see O’Neill traded packaging Walker, Winn, Graceffo, Hence with him and still being stuck with DeJong and VerHagen isn’t what I want to see.
Find me a metric, just one, that even slightly suggests our pitchers value is stronger than our position players value.
Soto payroll dollars, and the possible players traded for him, could revamp this pitching staff with different player acquisitions.
I’m not against Soto, I’m against allowing 6 runs or more on a regular basis. I expect us to give up 6 EARNED RUNS, or more, at least once every series. We can’t keep doing this.
I guess I don’t understand the comments that he would just be a 2.5 year rental. In the past big time sluggers have fell in love with St. Louis and decided that’s where they want to stay and play. Why wouldn’t the same happen with Soto?
Soto supposedly turned down $440M from the Nationals. The Cardinals have never offered a free agent close to that kind of money. They offered Pujols over $200M after the 2011 season and offered Jason Heyward around $180M after 2015. Neither player accepted thankfully. Arenado and Goldy are on relative big deals but they were trades, not free agents. The Cardinals didn’t have to outbid the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and other big market teams. I just can’t imagine the Cardinals winning the Soto bidding war especially since Boras is his agent.
I don’t think the Cardinals have much competition in their pursuit of Soto. I just don’t see who else might make a big play for him.
If Boras already turned down a 15 year, $440M offer for Soto, then I’d say there is only a very minuscule possibility of him staying in St. Louis.
There’s a pretty strong rumor that Soto will be traded within the next two weeks. I get the impression that someone, possibility the Nats’ owner, wants Soto moved now.
As I said earlier, nobody is going to offer Washington a KINGS RANSOM for Soto. Just not going to happen. I agree with Mudville, the Soto trade is imminent. There will probably be one team that will offer the Nationals a really good deal and conventional wisdom says they will take it. I just hope it’s the Cardinals making that really good deal.
Again, nobody is going to offer Washington a KINGS Ransom for Soto.
r/Esteemed Rat
Padres (Preller is nuts about trading and always super agressive)
Astros
Mariners (Dopito is nuts about trading, seems agressive)
Giants (already LH heavy, but they need a bat)
Yankees (why not, and have money to eat Corbin to make prospect return less)
Dodgers (see Yankees)All teams I could definitely see in on the bidding, could be more, they are going to get top return, or they won’t move him. Like I’ve said previously this is very similar to if WASH would have traded a young controlled Harper, LAA trading a young controlled Trout, and pretty similar to if the Cardinals would have traded a young Pujols.
MLB trade rumors added BOS, TEX, TOR, NYM to my list. And I’m going to add BALT to it. They are hot, have a lot of young talent and how else to say to your fans were ready to compete than making a big trade.
The market is there for a high pric, as Rat would put it, “A kings ransom”.
They also said “Carlson, Walker, Liberatore, and then some”. I’ll keep saying it, No thanks.Carlson, Walker, Liberatore, and someone else – I’LL TAKE IT!!!
Pugs? Make that recommendation to Mozeliak!
Well there are two separate issues here.
1. Would the Cardinals pull the trigger on a Soto trade before the August 2 deadline?
Answer: We have the prospects and payroll space to do it but it would be contrary to the Cardinal business model, not to mention the fact that Soto can’t pitch, which is our biggest need.
2. Would the Cardinals sign Soto to a long term deal when he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season?
Answer: less than a 5% chance in my opinion.
The luxury tax threshold is currently at $230M.
Padres (2022 payroll) – $234M
Astros – $200M (The Astros market is about the same size
as the Cardinals’ market. Per SPOTRAC the
Cardinals payroll is at $179M)
Yankees – $262M
Dodgers – $274M
Mets – $289M
Red Sox – $234MOrioles – Still rebuilding. They’re not trading the top
prospects that they’ve been painfully acquiring.
Mariners – Maybe.
Giants – They don’t have enough talent for a big trade.
Rangers – ditto Giants
Toronto – Their payroll already at $191M and they need to
extend Guerrero and Bichette.I’m not saying that there isn’t another club that could muscle up and do the deal, but it’s not obvious who that would be. It looks like the Cardinals are it. And with all the talk about the Cardinals being the front runner, you have to think that they have already made a respectable offer to the Nats to rent Soto for a couple of years.
I think the arguments explaining why Soto doesn’t work for several teams is a prime example of why he will not move mid-season. Once winter rolls around, these teams will have a better understanding of where their payroll is and time to move some pieces to figure out how they want to build a roster around a guy that will be making around $25 million in arbitration if he doesn’t sign an extension. If he moves, Soto will go during the winter.
1)Snell to SEA for 1-2 minor leaguers
2)
SD Gets: Soto (WASH), Corbin (WASH), Nootbaar (STL)
STL Gets: Clevinger (SD), Pomeranz (SD)
WASH Gets: DeJong, VerHagen (STL), Myers, Abrams, Gore, Hassell, Merrill, Weathers (SD)SEA adds approximately $6.5 this year, $16.5 in 2023
SD sheds $8.5 remaining this year and get below luxury cap, then adds about $18 for 2023 (estimating Soto arbitration), and about $60 in 2024 (again estimating Soto arbitration)
STL adds about $3 remaining this year and sheds about $2.2 for 2023.
WASH sheds about $1.2 this year, $32 for 2023, and about $60 for 2024.-SEA adds a SP to round out thier rotation.
-SD still has Darvish, Musgrove, Manaea, Martinez, Corbin as a rotation. The future payroll could be an issue, but they add Soto to their struggling OF, Nootbaar for OF depth and a deep lineup.
-STL rotation of Mikolas, Wainwright, Clevinger, Matz, Hudson. Pomeranz is on the 60 day and working way back. Is depth and signed at $10 for 2023, with Clevinger a FA. Still have Woodford, Baker, Nunez, other lower prospects available to add to the pen and address the real needs and not adding an expensive OF costing the future.
-WASH unloads a ton of future money, adds SD #1 and #4 (Hassell and Merrill), 2021 #1 and #4 (Abrams and Gore) who are both in MLB now, and 2020 #5 (Weathers) who’s shown promise, but been injured and struggled this year. They start their total rebuild. They take on 4 extra 40 man players in this deal, but they still have Bell, Cruz, Y. Hernandez, C. Hernandez they can easily more for lower minor leaguers and Escobar is a simple DFA.And you can check the values through BTV, it says it’s even all around and I solved SD money problem this year (they can figure out their own future), STL pitching problem and didn’t give up the whole future and break the budget.
I think you are estimating low on Soto’s salary for next year. He’s making $17.1 million this season through arbitration and next year will not be a modest bump. He’ll probably be over $20 million. Not saying that would deter SD from acquiring him, but Soto is not going to be cheap again for a long time unless something dramatic happens like an injury.
I pay and seldom post. I just like The “Brain” Walton. He and I may disagree here because I think Soto is worth the 176 BTV. Gorman (56), Carlson (78) and Libby (25) – combined BTV 159 would be close enough. No Walker or Winn – period.
I have three premises: 1) The top offense wins World Series 4 of last 6 and 6 of last 13 (most with middling overall pitching, with some very good ones). 2) The Cards have a 1-3 year window to win the World Series with Arenado and Goldy in primes. 3) the ONLY goal is to win the WS.So sure, the Cqrds need a #1 Starter. But they have very good position players who don’t score nearly enough runs, the key reason being lousy 1-2 hitters. No excuse for this team to be 10th in runs scored per game.
Now – as far as how the team would be after the trade, which is all that matters:
They won’t miss Libby after this draft (note: this Draft was based on premises #2-3).
They’d end up with an OF/DHs of: O’Neill, Bader, Soto, Walker (’23), Burleson (’22-’23)
They have Donovan to play 2b.
The top of the lineup has Donovan and Soto — both inasne on base machines who also drive in runs.
Donovan – current .395 OBP (lowest career .377).
Soto – career .427 OBP with best BB rate in MLB and crazy low K-rate;
Follow those two run producers with 3. Goldy, 4. Arenado, 5.O’Neill, 6. Bader/(Walker next year), 7. Edman, 8. Herrera 9. Burleson/Yepez
They save $40M after this year if they let go of all the guys Mo signed this off-season and Waino retires – excpet Matz and cut VerHagen.
The current payroll is still $5-10 million UNDER last year’s, and they have insane new TV and streaming money, so they can get another pitcher in the off-season in free agency.If they win with Soto – the Cards have been able to extend great players’ contracts. And by that time, the numbers will work out. You don’t win World Series without risk. After 11 years, it’s time to take risks.
With the article I just read, I don’t see Walker going anywhere. nyrdcast About half way down the bullet points at the bottom, I read it that Mo stated he is not trading Walker. This is the one that starts: “Never speak in Absolutes”.
I would be willing to part with 1 of O’Neill/Bader/Carlson and 1 of Yepez/Donovan. I would be willing to part with Liberatore if I didn’t think we would need him next year. I am NOT willing to part with Walker. His stats in the minors are somewhat similar to Pujols’ at about the same age. However, Walker is faster than Pujols (29 SBs in 154 games) and was projected to play either 1B or a corner OF in the majors.
I just don’t think the Cardinals have enough talent, that they should part with, to acquire Soto. To me, they gut the system too much in acquiring him for 2 1/2 years.
The only starting OF I want to see parted with is O’Neill. Thier system is deep right now with really good talent. They are in a prime spot for another 10-15 years of year in and year out good seasons. There is absolutely zero way I want this system gutted. I’ve made it clear I’m not the biggest Gorman believer and I’m saying NO. No Carlson. No Walker. I would possibly talk Winn because I don’t fully believe in his bat, but at this point keep developing and keep being successful. If they gut this system for Soto to win the World Sieres, it only slightly makes their odds better with absolutely not even close to a guarantee. Then in 2 years you’re without him and everything you traded away and were the bottom of the central and looking just like Washington looks right now, or you sign him and the budget is gone and the team is Soto, aging Arenado, and whatever little youth is left.
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