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As of Thursday morning, some rival executives perceive the Padres to be the frontrunner to land Juan Soto.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 28, 2022
Great conversations, but I doubt very seriously that Soto will be coming to St. Louis. Mo knows that pitching is by far the biggest need.
I don’t think they will trade Carlson, although the rumors suggest that the Nats want him. The Cardinals consider him a homegrown, five tool player, and as Rat pointed out, the Cardinals may need him to play centerfield.
It’s odd that Burleson’s name hasn’t been mentioned much by the rumor mill.
Bernie: Please Be Careful, Cardinals. It Isn't A Good Idea To Trade Dylan Carlson. – Scoops with Danny Mac https://t.co/1EOdNK0jzy
— Bernie Miklasz (@miklasz) July 28, 2022
SOURCE: The #Padres are in serious talks with the #Nationals for a Juan Soto trade for. Talks have intensified since last night.
— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) July 28, 2022
I like both of those posts Brian.
Bernie is correct that Carlson’s value isn’t much less than Soto’s when you factor salary into the equation.
And I hope Soto goes to the Padres or elsewhere so the Cardinals can focus on pitching.
As long as the Cards get more serious about pitching than last year im definitely for passing on Soto.
BR 162 game war avg x club control
2.9 x 4.5 = 13.05 Carlson
6.0 x 2.5 = 15.00 SotoCarlson hasn’t peaked. If he can avg 3.33 war per 162 x 4.5 = 15.00
0.4, per 162, is not a huge increase.
Rats point about CF depth is spot on because Bader has 1.5 yrs club control left and an injury history.
Now who do you have package with Carlson to satisfy WSH?
Stl shouldn’t.
BR 162 game war avg x club control
2.9 x 4.5 = 13.05 Carlson
6.0 x 2.5 = 15.00 SotoCarlson hasn’t peaked. If he can avg 3.33 war per 162 x 4.5 = 15.00
While I appreciate the raw math, it’s much easier to find a 2.9 or 3.33 WAR replacement than it is to find another Soto. Burleson and Yepez could probably put up 2.5 or more combined in a corner OF spot basically just with the bat.
Well I think we need pitching. Montas from the A’s or skubal from Detroit seem like solid pitchers. Skubal also has 4 years of control left. Montas has some shoulder issues so skubal might be better but might take more in getting him.
I’m not sure Carlson hasn’t peaked. He’s a quality player but I don’t see any exceptionality like I saw in Pujols. There’s too much lionizing of prospects as sure fire stars of the future. Some realize their potential and become great (Pujols, Molina, Wainwright) but many, many more fall flat on their faces.
For me it’s like this
1. If we trade for Soto and say extend him (it that’s possible) and he’s a Cardinal for 8 years and we never win the World Series then what good was he.
2. If we keep all these prospects for six years before they become free agents and we never win the World Series then what good are they.
It’s a GM’s nightmare.
I’m a big risk taker and I want the Soto trade but they could make it and still miss the playoffs.
What to do?
Well, Junior only makes big trades if it’s money in and money out..even. Pujols, Wainwright, Molina, Dickerson and all of the one year relief pitchers salaries added up might be close to Soto’s salary.
That’s the only way Junior does this.
Chances…1 out of 5.
They’d still have to go out and get pitchers.
Good luck Mo.Carlson recorded a 2.6 fWAR last year as a 21-year-old and already has 2.1 WAR accumulated this season. I think believing he will plateau around a 3 fWAR player might be underselling his potential. I also think the idea of easily replacing a player like Carlson is undervaluing what the Cardinals have in him. This is a 23-year-old switch-hitter with good contact skills, solid power, and the ability to play all three outfield positions. I understand nothing about him is elite, but having a kid like this that is just good all around is not something you just replace.
Last year he was a 21-year-old and this year he is a 23-year-old? Something funny about that math.
Both Soto & Carlson are 23. By bWAR, Carlson has 1.3 this year and Soto has 3.4.
As for who can play CF if they trade Carlson? Looks like next man up is Deluzio. Though I would think Nootbar would get a run at CF first. If I recall, O’Neil played CF in the minors. And I believe Capel is capable of playing there as well.
That said, I do not think the Cardinals will trade for Soto.
Yes, I mistyped Carlson’s age in my previous post. I suppose that invalidates everything I mentioned, so let’s just go with this concept that Carlson is a replaceable player that comes around every season.
Cardinals Front Office AND Ownership is With the Team in Washington
DeJong for Corbin? (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)
If Dewitt and company are there, then things are serious and want to talk extensions. Trade most likely is based around a Soto extension, and if that doesn’t happen then STL walks away. Face to face with Boras and Soto. Don’t think they will trade away all that minor league talent for 2.4 yrs of Soto. Sign him to either 5-200 (buy out 2 remaining arb years @40 per and 3 years on top), or 10-400 with deferred $$ and once again, buying out the last 2 arb years.
Extensions? No way do I talk extension with Soto until he proves to the world that all the hype surrounding him is legitimate. In other words, not until after the 2024 season.
Stay away from the temptation to acquire Soto. The cost will be too steep. Think “Alcantara/Gallen for Ozuna.”
Or if you want to think the other way, “Adams for Yepez.”
From the lips of Boras???
The Juan Soto Final 4 (in terms of aggressive offers entering the weekend)
San Diego #Padres
Seattle #Mariners
St. Louis #Cardinals
Los Angeles #Dodgers— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 29, 2022
Another view…
There are strong indications that the #Padres and #Cardinals are in the lead for a Juan Soto blockbuster trade but that is subject to change as any of the 4 teams still in the mix could improve their offers at any moment, according to sources involved in the trade negotiations.
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) July 30, 2022
Stay away from the temptation to acquire Soto. The cost will be too steep. Think “Alcantara/Gallen for Ozuna.”
Is this because you think Soto won’t be very good, or because the other players will be that great?
The Ozuna trade wouldn’t have been so bad if Ozuna had been the guy we thought we’d get after his breakout in Miami. Instead, he had a bum wing from the start and was a just above average hitter. Soto, on the other hand, is about as good as Ozuna’s best…at his worst.
Put another way, the Cards could trade two All Stars for Soto and still come out ahead in the trade, and that’s assuming he leaves after 2024. His median projection is about 14 WAR the next two years, which is a very high bar to clear.
I don’t think Soto is overhyped but I highly value this young core the Cardinals have coming up and do not want to see it broken up before they have a chance to blossom. I sincerely believe this young group of position players we have could be every bit as good as the group the Cubs had come up in 2015, except hopefully Mo will give them the pitching necessary to compete for multiple championships. We don’t need to dismantle this group for a couple of years of Soto.
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