Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Diamondbacks might be looking to deal from their plethora of left-handed hitting CFs. They have Dalton Vasho, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Corbin Carroll creating a bit of a logjam in their outfield with Vasho and Carroll unlikely to be moved.
My proposal:
Cardinals: Jake McCarthy
Diamondbacks: Matthew LibratoreDiamondbacks get some young controllable pitching and the Cardinals get a potential dynamic CF who just finished fourth in the NL ROY voting.
The Carpenter stuff likely stems from Ken Rosenthal’s recent column in The Athletic. He acknowledged he has not heard anything about Carpenter returning to St. Louis, but said he thought it made sense given what occurred with Albert this past season.
I don’t know that I see a fit. I think it was best for both parties to separate and probably best to remain separated. It’s one thing to bring back a guy like Albert nearly 10 years after he left. Bringing Carpenter back after one season away would probably be flushing money and a roster spot down the toilet.
Can they just DFA him and see if he passes through waivers or does he have the right to refuse an outright assignment to Memphis? No way someone would claim him off waivers. Might as well get the 40-man roster spot freed up and see if can prove anything during Spring Training, if you don’t run the risk of paying him to go away. I understand not wanting to eat $3 million. It’s that roster spot that becomes a problem.
League minimums vary based on experience. The league minimum for a player outside the arbitration process is much different than the salary of a player just starting off. That is how a franchise like Oakland can function on a $40 million payroll that is nearly identical the what Max Scherzer was set to make in a single season.
In terms of putting money into the players pockets, I don’t think that is really a concern. The owners would much rather see their shared revenues going into the product rather than into another owners pocket. In fact, I believe the owners tried to push for a salary floor during the last CBA, but that was quickly swatted away by the players. Why they didn’t want that is confusing to me outside of them just being too focused on other issues. Part of the the reason the middle class players are being squeezed out in baseball is because most teams take an all or nothing approach. They either want to pay stars to compete or they want to pay pre-arbitration salaries to keep costs down and hope they can flip the asset before he gets too expensive. If you force teams to start spending money on payroll, you will see more of a baseball middle class where proven veteran players get paid a fair rate.
Owners are not fans of given money to other owners, which is exactly what the revenue sharing process does. Many of these small market clubs are subsidized by the big clubs. This is good for the league overall, because you don’t want a structure of 5-8 wealthy teams just smashing the rest of the league on an annual basis. That creates a boring product. Unfortunately, that is what is kind of happening because these big market teams like the Yankees are sending millions of dollars to these other clubs, who just bank it keep being terrible. I think the Yankees ownership group would much prefer covering a portion of the payroll for teams like the Pirates and Rays rather than dumping money into their profit shares.
Tampa is a unique case. They are more anomaly than model to me. I think many organizations make the mistake of thinking they can function like the Rays and it hurts them. I think a similar thing happens when teams try to copy the Astros and Theo’s approach of a teardown and build up. There is a certain process and organization-wide commitment to those methods for it to work and most don’t have that. In fact, if you look at all the guys who have left Tampa for other executive jobs, none of them really function like the Rays. Friedman in particular no longer operates like a Rays executive. He spends big and makes big moves because it is a model the Dodgers can support. The Rays are a top-down commitment to efficiency and cost-cutting and that does not seem to wane at any level. To make that work, you have to have a really dedicated owner with very dedicated executives following suit. Most do not have that and will only be able to succeed if they spend some money.
Trade Proposal:
– Twins: Paul DeJong, Dakota Hudson
– Cardinals: Max KeplerKepler and DeJong have oddly similar profiles, except one is a left-handed outfielder and the other is right-handed SS. Both rate very well on defense at their positions and have significant offensive limitations. Both appear to struggle due to being pull-happy.
Minnesota is losing Correa, which opens a hole for them at SS and they have plenty of outfielders to fill in for Kepler. Throwing Hudson in could help them fill in for their rotation, as well. As they are losing several starting arms. Kepler is due $8.5 million this year with a $10 million option or $1 million buyout next year.
This is an interesting discussion considering how MLB has a significant tanking issue that basically rewards organizations for losing. The lottery was a nice start to try and shift away from this, but it won’t do much. The NBA has a lottery and teams still tank and some do it in spectacular fashion just to increase their odds of winning the lottery. I argued during the last CBA the one thing that MLB needed to push into that deal was a salary floor to ensure teams were spending money. That doesn’t necessary encourage winning, but it should make the haves feel better about the have nots receiving money because it should be re-invested into the product. Now, a floor would probably just mean teams like Oakland would become repositories for bad contracts from big market teams, but at least everyone benefits from that.
I think limiting draft picks to consistently good teams and the corresponding draft pool is a terrible structure to establish. It basically tells organizations to function like mid-tier college programs that have to build up their competitive window for a year period and then completely restart every 4-5 years.
If he becomes available, I think Bellinger makes a ton of sense for the Cardinals. He will be looking for a prove-it contract, so no one will have to commit long-term, high money on him. He still has the upside of being an elite player, but at worst, the Cardinals would basically be signing a left-handed version of Harrison Bader with more offensive potential. He is still a great defensive centerfielder, who runs the bases really well. He’s been in a winning culture and probably needs a change of scenery. I will also point out the Cardinals still have Turner Ward on their coaching staff. He’s familiar with Bellinger from his time with the Dodgers. Maybe he can help Cody rediscover his swing. Shoulder injuries are nasty on hitters. Shoulders and wrists are always the injuries that seem to have lingering effects on hitters. This was his second year removed from his shoulder issue in the 2020 World Series. If he puts in the work this winter, he could be primed to regain some of that MVP-type swing.
Been trying to figure out a solid contract swap to get DeJong off the roster. I will throw a few names out there:
– Kendall Graveman (Chicago White Sox): He’s owed $8 million over the next two years. He’s a solid bullpen arm when healthy, but he has had some issues in that department.
– Joe Kelly (Chicago White Sox): His arm isn’t what it used to be, but he’s owed $9 million next year with a team option in 2024 or $1 million buyout. This would basically be a complete money swap with Chicago to add their bad reliever for the Cardinals bad SS. The benefit to the Cardinals would be adding a potential bullpen arm to cycle in with their other injury-prone arms.
– Ryan Tepera (LA Angels): Owed $7 million next season in the final year of his deal. He was solid in 2021. LA may opt to hold onto him in hopes he starts next year off well and they can force someone to pay them through the nose for a deadline reliver. Or, they could just swap his contract for a SS who once showed power.
Anyone think the Cardinals might try to trade Mikolas this winter?
He will be 34 next season and in the final year of his contract that pays him $17 million. He’s coming off a really nice season, but was injured and terrible in 2021, didn’t pitch in 2020 and was not all that great in 2019. Finding a decent trade partner for him would make a lot of season to free up some money and open a rotation spot.
I think a couple things go into this. One, stars are just difficult to find in baseball. So much development has to happen after they are acquired. College players that have star potential rarely last long in the draft and the high school guys or international signs are too young to really gauge their potential. Mike Trout was selected 25th overall and he’s been the best player the game has seen in like 30 years. deGrom was selected in the 9th round. Goldschmidt was selected in the 8th. Arenado in the 2nd. There is just a randomness to how players develop.
The other factor I will throw out there is the competing interests between competing for titles and developing talent. There is a reason why doing both at the same time rarely works. Young players need time and opportunities to develop, which means a team is going to have some potential holes in the roster while a kid figures out the level. It is extremely rare to find a guy like Pujols or Julio Rodriguez who can just enter the big leagues and start contributing immediately with few low points. Most guys need time and patience to work through new challenges and many times that can mean a string of losses.
In the Cardinals case, I think they end up developing some pretty good players up into Triple A and then they sort of get stuck because they have nowhere left to go. Nolan Gorman is a prime example. He had nothing left to really prove at Triple A this season, but he also wasn’t hitting well enough to play on a team that was trying to win the division. So, he ends up either on the bench in St. Louis or toiling away in Memphis. Ultimately, nothing productive can really be done with him and his development kind of stalls. You look at guys like Goldschmidt and Arenado, they both played on some bad teams and had nothing but time and opportunity to work through their issues as young players. I think most guys function that way and that’s where you find the stars who are stuck on bad teams.
I believe the microbetting process is something very popular in Europe with soccer. I’ve heard they actually run wager opportunities in the corner of television screens as the game is going on over there.
This will no doubt generate some more interest for people, but I have no doubt is interest the league probably doesn’t want. The gambling market don’t really care for the sports they watch, they just care about the wagers. Case in point, March Madness. People love betting on those games because of the non-stop action and general unknowns, but at the end of the day most of the people don’t care about college basketball. They only start paying attention when the tournament is on. Same thing happens with college football. Every Saturday is loaded with action until bowl games start and then no one cares. If this is the path, it is a slippery slope that baseball probably should avoid.
ZTR, I completely agree with your assessment on gambling. The relaxed nature this contract has taken towards that industry over the past five years has stunned me. I think this world has too many vices readily available for overindulgence as it is and gambling can be one of the nastiest vices because there are no real barriers to hold anyone back as long as they can find some line of credit.
Also, I just read Dusty Baker is expected back with Houston next year. The rumors are the Astros will have to choose between Dusty and GM James Click, as both have expiring contracts. Reports have Click not meshing well with Baker or owner Jim Crane. If Click does end up leaving the Astros and can’t find a GM job immediately, I hope the Cardinals make some attempt to bring him in as an advisor or assistant GM. The guy has a wealth of experience and knowledge on the game dating back to his time in Tampa Bay and I really think Mo needs to get some new perspectives on how the Cardinals are run. All organizations will fall behind if they insulate themselves too much from their industry. That has been my concern with Mo for many years and it has only grown with each internal promotion they have announced.
gscottar, I am all in favor of getting Heyward back, as long as the money and expectations are clear. He’s still a solid player and I think his work-ethic and leadership would be incredibly valuable in the clubhouse. He’s a left-handed bat that still plays great defense in the outfield. He’s won a World Series and all reports are he is consistent professional. I think people undervalue guys like that on winning teams. I think that is a factor the Cardinals have been missing for many years. This is going to be especially problematic with Yadi retiring.
I also read that story on MLB Trade Rumors and the write mentioned the possibility of the Cardinals maybe looking into Amed Rosario, which really piqued my interested as a potential option at SS. He’s 27 and about to hit his final year of arbitration. Cleveland being what they are financially, might look to flip him this winter if he’s not in their long-term plans. He could be an interesting addition given his speed and energy.
If Mike Trout is available and can be acquired without giving up your farm system – you do it. I understand he is due $37 million a year through 2030. I also understand he is one of the greatest baseball players to ever play the game and still has many productive years to provide. I understand he’s due $37 million a year through 2030. That does not matter when the player is elite.
I’ll throw a name out there that might become available and could slot into CF and provide a left-handed bat: Cody Bellinger. Been reading reports about how the Dodgers will probably non-tender him, since he will be due to make around $20 million in his final year of arbitration. He is in desperate need of a change of scenery. He still plays great defense based on numbers and reports, and that MVP bat might still be in there. He’s only 26.
He had some bad starts before September, but he was never consistently bad the way he was in September. He had one started in August and one in July where he allowed more than 2 runs. I think there is reason to believe Wainwright isn’t embellishing.
I think gauging Carlson based on this year might be a little short-sighted. This was his second full year in the big leagues and that is typically an adjustment year. Teams have a book on guys after that first season and start figuring out how to get them out. Hopefully, Carlson puts in the work this winter and figures out some adjustments.
I think it’s important to remembers he was a 3.3 bWAR player last season slashing .266/.343/.437 as a 22 year old. I think he entered the season with an adjusted approach and it screwed up his entire season. I know he was initially tabbed as a leadoff hitter this season, because I remember reading about how he started reaching out to guys like Matt Carpenter for advice. I think he put a higher emphasis on contact and it turned into weak contact. His K% dropped 5.3% from last year, while his walk rate remained the same. The problem is his exit velocity dropped 2 mph on average, his hard hit rate dipped nearly 4%. He also hit the ball on the ground more, which isn’t his game. He needs to be driving balls into the gaps.
I think a similar issued happened with his plate splits. Right side has always been his best, but he was an okay hitter from the left side in 2021. He slashed .243/.329/.411 from that side in 2021, but this year he was .207/.294/.339. He clearly was not seeing the ball as well from that side of the plate or really driving anything. Hopefully, that is correctable this offseason. Regardless, I agree that 2023 will be a make-or-break year for him. I’m optimistic he can turn it around, though.
I think the expectation for most pitching coaches these days is to take the data provided by the analytics department and synthesis down into an effect game plan/pitching strategy for the entire staff. That is where I wonder how well Maddux does. Hudson is the guy that keeps sticking out in my mind. He never improved this year. His control was all over the place and he never seemed to have much of a plan out there. Maybe that falls on him for not buying in, but it’s hard to observe that while also seeing the ongoing struggles of other young pitchers trying to get established (Thompson, Liberatore, Oviedo). Even looking back a couple season, Gant and Ponce de Leon always seemed to be running into the same mistakes. Again, I understand that can fall on the pitchers and the front office for not finding more talent, but 2022 was the second straight season Mo had to go acquire two veteran pitchers at the deadline to have any hope of cobbling together a competitive staff. That has to be fixed. Either the front office needs to improve their roster building or they need a pitching coach that can do better with what is given.
I am curious if we get another shocker from the front office this winter. Last year, it was Shildt getting fired. I wonder if they might shake up some of the executive positions. I really would like to see the Cardinals add some voices from outside the organization to discuss roster management and player development. I also think they might need to do something soon to keep Flores from taking a front office job elsewhere. Executive positions are opening up and I could see him being a name that starts popping up for interviews. They don’t need a complete overhaul, but I think it’s fair to wonder if their management approach is getting a little stale given the ongoing issues in October.
I think Maddux is a solid pitching coach for a veteran group of arms. The problem with that is he doesn’t seem to really help develop any of the young guys trying to make that jump from Triple A to the majors. I think part of that is his knowledge on pitching is based on a much older practice than the modern game dictates. I am not saying going full analytics is always a great method, but I think the Cardinals lack of young, healthy arms falls largely on him. I also wonder what will happen to the staff with Molina retired. I think he helped develop a lot of those game plans that worked very well for veteran guys like Montgomery, who openly discussed the Cardinals wanting him to focus on his fastball more, which was attributed to Molina. Taking him out of the equation and having a front office that seems focused on getting young arms cycling through the roster every year, I worry the pitching could fall apart.
The likely plan is to make Edman the full-time SS and rotate Gorman and Donovan at 2B. If they did do something, I could see Jose Iglesias or even Elvis Andrus, who has been surprisingly good for the White Sox, being more in their price range. Personally, I would like to see them commit Edman to 2B and Gorman to DH/1B after this season and plug SS with a more proven entity, but that is probably a luxury they can’t pursue based on their recent spending and the need to keep the position open for Winn’s development.
1948, repairing a swing is not as simple as it might sound. These guys spend years developing a swing around their natural abilities and in some cases nothing can be done because the abilities start to fade. Bat speeds slow down, eyesight gets worse, maybe an injury makes it difficult for a guy to get his body where he needs to get the bat where it is needed. Carpenter went through an extensive swing rebuild last offseason and that was more an act of desperation than a guy just trying to figure it out. Once his contract was up, he knew his career was hanging by a thread and spent all winter bouncing around with different coaches and instructors. Even after all that work, it didn’t exactly take immediately, because he wasn’t all that good with Texas. What he was doing with the Yankees was great, but you also have to factor in he went to a park built for left handed, flyball hitters.
For DeJong, I have no doubt he is working his butt off to try to fix his offensive woes. The question is what is the problem and how do you fix it? In his case, his issues are long-standing and the same voices are trying to figure this out with him and clearly they are just as baffled as him. It’s possible he just needs a new voice in his ear or eyes on his swing mechanics. It could be something small like a need to switch bats, too. There has been a lot of discussion about Paul Goldschmidt getting fitted for a bat this season similar to what golfers go through and look at how well that has turned out. Now, Goldschmidt is a good hitter, so it’s not like he warped from a regular guy to MVP-level, but the point is small, weird little things can have significant impacts on a hitter. For DeJong, I don’t think it’s the bat. I think he’s got an issue with approach and probably just a lack of talent. He’s always been a bit of an all-or-nothing type of hitter and once the guy’s bat starts to slow down and pitchers get more information on them, those hitters can get really bad. Maybe a change of scenery would do him well, but the likelihood is he’s just never going to really hit at the big league level again.
I am not sure anyone could be added at SS that provides less offense than DeJong. He’s been atrocious since that little power splurge we went on after getting called back up. Since Aug. 10, he is slashing .150/.250/.233 with 27 strikeouts and 6 walks. He has nine hits in that span. The slash line is inline with his season overall, too. When he does make contact, good things tend to happen. But, he just can’t get the bat on the ball and at this point, that’s probably not going to change. He is a okay fielder at SS, but you need elite glove work to over come those pitiful offensive numbers.
This offseason will be interesting for the SS position. I don’t see how the Cardinals can expect DeJong to be anything more than a reserve, which is probably what they should have done with him several years ago. He had position versatility coming up in the minors. I believe he was a catcher early on in college before shifting to third. The shift to SS seemed to come very late in his professional career. I don’t understand why they haven’t tried to make him more of a utility player, which is where I think his highest value exists. This year has made it obvious, he cannot be an everyday SS at the major league level. If you can’t rely on him to be able to play all over the infield next season, they probably should look to move on from him.
