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Not surprisingly, The Athletic ranks the Cardinals rotation 25th of 30. Only ones viewed worse are A’s, Rockies, Nationals and Angels.
We already know the offense is very inconsistent at best, but they like the defense’s chance to help the pitching.
From SportsBetting.ag:
First Manager Fired
John Schneider (Blue Jays) 2/1
Rocco Baldelli (Twins) 3/1
Oliver Marmol (Cardinals) 4/1
Bud Black (Rockies) 5/1
Derek Shelton (Pirates) 7/1
Dave Martinez (Nationals) 7/1
Kevin Cash (Rays) 9/1
Mark Kotsay (Athletics) 14/1
Aaron Boone (Yankees) 25/1
Brandon Hyde (Orioles) 28/1
Torey Lovullo (Diamondbacks) 33/1
Ron Washington (Angels) 33/1
Bob Melvin (Giants) 40/1
Carlos Mendoza (Mets) 40/1
A.J. Hinch (Tigers) 40/1
Alex Cora (Red Sox) 50/1
Matt Quatraro (Royals) 50/1
Stephen Vogt (Guardians) 66/1
Mike Shildt (Padres) 66/1
Pat Murphy (Brewers) 66/1
Rob Thomson (Phillies) 66/1
Joe Espada (Astros) 66/1
Craig Counsell (Cubs) 75/1
Brian Snitker (Braves) 75/1
Clayton McCullough (Marlins) 75/1
Will Venable (White Sox) 75/1
Bruce Bochy (Rangers) 100/1
Terry Francona (Reds) 150/1
Dan Wilson (Mariners) 150/1
Dave Roberts (Dodgers) 200/1Since the start of the season, the #stlcards' odds have all fallen, per @BetOnline_ag.
Win WS – from 100/1 to 150/1
Win NL – from 50/1 to 75/1
Win NL Central – from 9/1 to 14/1 (fourth in division)
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 5, 2025
This view has the Cards finishing six games over .500 and falling two games short of the last NL playoff spot.
Assume for a moment that this is how it would play out with the current roster. If you knew that, would you be a seller at the deadline? Or would you stand pat and hold out hope they could find a few more wins than expected and squeak in?
I wonder if Chaim and Mo would agree?
FWIW, 84 wins would (barely) be a playoff team in the AL.
Fangraphs Projected Standings pic.twitter.com/mnOEzfUMdz
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 27, 2025
In my opinion they should be sellers. They have already established that this is a reset year so expectations were low. And you still might get hot and make the playoffs anyway like the Tigers (who were sellers at the deadline) last season.
If they are 6 over around the deadline, they should do a soft sell. To me, that’s Matz and Maton. Both are replaceable pieces where the team still has just about as good a chance to win without them and they both bring a little value back. Fedde or Matz are probably interchangeable here but I would suspect Matz would have a much higher demand due to his pitching style and flexibility.
If they are .500, sell Helsley as well and consider others too.
Agree with jnevel re the soft sell, but I’d offer Fedde rather than Matz. Agreed that Matz would bring more, but Matz also seems harder to me to replace this year. If we can make it to the playoffs, he and Romero are the main two lefty relievers. I don’t see anyone on the farm ready to take that role. If everyone stays healthy, then McGreevy can replace Fedde. (Or maybe Matthews if he proves healthy and turns it on these next two months.
I would also take a soft sell / shuffle approach. Be willing to trade from the big league roster to get some young talent up like McGreevy. Osuagec said, the team could play better with the young players like the Tigers last year. Specifically, agree I would be looking at trading at least one of Fedde, Mikolas, or Matz. I would potentially trade Burly too since this team has a lot of 1B/DH types.
I would trade whatever gives the best deals for the future. To me just making the playoffs means very little. This organization needs to show that its serious.
If they fall off and sell is it fair to think Matz and Mikolas might actually have positive value?
Helsley, Fedde, Maton, Matz and Mikolas are definitely on “take the best offer” trade block.
I am going to take a different point of view. If we are in the hunt mid-July I think we should be soft buyers. This team has busted its tail by overachieving thus far and if that continues they don’t need to have the rug pulled out from them. I think a soft buy could be done without abandoning the reset.
I’m not talking about doing something dumb like trading Weatherholt for a rental. I’m talking about trading from a surplus (catchers) for a slight temporary upgrade either in the pen or RF. If they acquired someone on the level of Maton it wouldn’t cost much but it would allow the worst performing member of the pen to be moved out and everyone else move down a place.
Or you could try to sell and buy at the same time. Move Helsley but then acquire another piece that could help. You could also swap young player for young player. Maybe trade Gorman or Walker for a young starter with multiple years of control. None of the things I have mentioned would stall the reset that much. The bottom line to me is that if we are truly contending then don’t take that for granted and assume it will be that way every year. That is a dangerous assumption to make. Ask Baltimore. If we are out of it then do the sell as planned but if we stay in it then reward the players and fans and try to do something.
Reading the discussion leads me to ask another question…
Does everyone define “remaining in the hunt” the same way? In the hunt for what?
Is simply competing for the last wild card enough? Being on pace for 84-86 wins could do that.
Or do they need to be in a position to potentially win the division to add players?
Or ???
To me being in the hunt means in the hunt for a playoff spot.
This article suggests that the Cardinal front office could be swayed if they are “still in the hunt” in July.
Buyers at trade deadline? 'Good vibes' are reshaping front office's view: Cardinals Extra https://t.co/EuEieqXfzg
— St. Louis Post-Dispatch (@stltoday) May 28, 2025
They need to be better than a possible contender for the last playoff spot. They need to be established as in the playoffs if the season ended on that day and by at least a game or two.
I also agree with GScottar in that buying and selling both at the same time would make the most sense. Trade from areas of strength to patch up mid or long term areas of weakness.
As a reminder, as of today, the Cardinals are not a playoff team.
With two months between the trade deadline and the end of the season, it may be very difficult to assess how serious of a contender they could be at the end. Jnevel suggests making that call based on where they are as the deadline approaches. That is probably the best anyone could do.
A positive for the team could be the boost provided by a key player addition or two.
A negative factor that is impossible to predict is injury. So far this season, the Cardinals have been remarkably injury free. If that bug bites a key player or two, which is not crazy to wonder, it could change their momentum. Other than the rotation with McGreevy perhaps, there isn’t a lot of immediate depth to call upon, IMO.
I think that the Cards should take aim at ’28 or perhaps ’27 to become a pennant contender. The whole farm system has to be revamped and that takes time. Only acquire young players that fit in with that strategy. Even if STL can somehow make it into October…. is our present rotation sound enough to win just one series?
I’d like to see the Cards win a WS before…. well its on my bucket list.
Sell the chips. A Matz trade is overdue when we consider the injury concerns Brian mentioned. Vet pitching for young pitching.
I doubt Mikolas accepts a trade, but that’s a guess. If he keeps this up he may choose one years deals w/StL. His end of season production and free agency have me curious.
As a reminder, as of today, the Cardinals are not a playoff team.
As of this minute we are in the final wild card spot. We were tied with the Giants this morning and the Giants lost this afternoon.
Has attendance improved noticeably?
If Busch starts rocking Bill might stand pat, or even buy. I bet I can guess Mo’s position.
That’s outstanding…”The Cardinals win the 2nd WC!…The Cardinals win the 2nd WC…The Cardinals win the second WC…HOLY COW!”
I’m with jnevel–in the hunt means either in position to be in the playoffs were the season to end that day or within a couple days. Maybe more if the team in front of them is in the process of crashing and burning.
Also agree on the buy/sell strategy. Much will depend on whether any of the shuttle relievers get hot between now and then–Fernandez, Graceffo, Munoz, O’Brien, Roycroft, Swanson…maybe even a Graillo, Roby or Hence. If one of them really steps up, I’m not sure I’d trade for another reliever. If none does, well, I think they could use a righty to supplement Helsley, Maton, and Leahy. And will Walker get it together? If not, a RF upgrade.
I could see dealing Gorman, but worry that it’s selling low. I’d like to see him sent to Memphis for a bit to at least boost his value by posting some good numbers there, though that is not guaranteed. Maybe Siani would bring something for a team that needs good CF defense and can handle a light bat. Definitely a catcher could be bait.
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