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I am not sure how many teams are in the draft lottery, but we are currently drafting 5th, with a possibility of moving up. From what I read, Chase Burns might be possible if we move up a few spots.
The 18 teams that don’t make the playoffs are all in the draft lottery. But the 3 worst teams each get 16.5% odds. So essentially, 50% of the time one of the worst 3 teams will win. But in theory, even the best team of those 18 could win with their .2% odds. There are also some rules that exclude certain teams from picking in the top 6. I think this applies to the Nationals this year no matter what their record ends up as. Here’s that rule:
Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can’t receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don’t get revenue-sharing payments can’t get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that’s ineligible for the lottery can’t select higher than 10th overall.And also the possibility of moving down from 5th. Last season KC had the 5th worst record and picked 8th.
So if we finish with the 5th worst record, what will be the chance Flores gets to pick the next Mark Appel?
You do know the probabilities in advance. If the Cards finish the season 5th worst, they will have a 10% chance of getting the 1st pick. They could also fall as low as the 11th pick, however there’s a greater than 96% chance they’d get a pick in the top 8.
My only concern about signing a free agent is losing a top draft pick next year. ASI said before, I think Yamamoto can be signed without loss, and if available should be our top target.
After 160 we have still not clinched the 5th worst record. We are only one game behind the Nationals with two to play. We are now 3 behind the Angels so they are no longer a threat.
The futile 1990 Cardinals finished at 70-92 with a run differential of -99.
The 2023 team stands at 69-91 with a run differential of -120, with two to play. If we lose the final two, we will tie the 1978 team for the worst win percentage since the 1924 team.Interestingly, the historically bad 1990 and 1978 teams each went through 3 managers. So the 2023 team is different in that it is historically bad even though the manager is apparently not seen as part of the problem. It should be noted that the 1978 debacle also resulted in the GM being fired after the season, whilst Dal Maxvill survived the 1990 season to return as GM.
Don’t trash Flores…he drafts well.
Some thnk so. I’d say closer to League average with the upper few picks and probably below that once you get past the top few picks. He had a good 2016, bad 2017 hampered by the Correa penalty, but still bad, good 2018, bad 2019, real good 2020, but there were only upper picks that year and no lower picks, 2021 not great so far, 2022 unknown.
Seeing as virtually everyone in the system by way of the draft is his doing, he should not get a pass when it comes to the decrepit state of the system, the rank of which has plummeted. I get that people who don’t like that want to dispute it. I get that he has his cheering section. Have at it.
bling said:
We lost sole possession of 5th worst. We finished tied with the Nationals at 71-91.
Yes, but no. The Nats are ineligible for the lottery, so their record only assures them of picking 10th. Here is the rule.
“Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can’t receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don’t can’t get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that’s ineligible for the lottery can’t select higher than 10th overall.”
I guess I forgot that there’s a lotto for picks now, so I suppose it will add some intrigue to the process. I’d rather have just guaranteed the 6th pick. It would be great fun to see the media go nuts if the Cards got the first pick. Yet the way the team’s luck has gone lately, it’ll probably end up with the 10th pick or something.
Flores definitely has been able to ride an amazing 2020 draft for the past couple of years. But, unless the Cards plan to spend big to offset organizational shortcomings, Flores & his team need to start hitting on pitcher EVERY year! Hopefully now that Mo has embraced, or st least accepted that his pitch to contact philosophy is wrong & about 28-29 other teams are right to target power stuff, the quality of the pitchers drafted will improve. Additionally, if the Cards had any semblance of a Latin American program, they wouldn’t have to rely so heavily on the domestic draft! A complete gutting of the Latin American scouting & development team is warranted!
The draft order for the top 10 teams, top 9, if I understand it correctly, since the Nationals already are locked into the 10th slot, will be determined at the winter meetings in San Diego, Dec. 5-7. That could affect the Cardinals willingness to sign a player with a Qualifying Offer, since they will still have a chance at the number 1 overall pick until after Dec. 7.
Good point mud.
Does anyone have an understanding of what activity we might see from the FO before the winter meetings? Or is it likely to be quiet?
The Cardinals aren’t going to tell anyone the timing of their activity in the market, likely because they are not in full control of that. It takes two to trade and two to sign a free agent. It is a common tactic for another team or an agent to stall early on in hopes of getting a better deal, either from the original source, or another team.
Having said that, given the increased pressure on the Cardinals to meet their self-proclaimed target to add three pitchers, they may try extra hard to strike early. But would they overpay if necessary to get it done quickly?
The most recent data point is last year. They went to the Winter Meetings still trying to make a trade for a catcher. After they failed, they signed Contreras two days later (December 9). Supposedly, the tipping point was the Cardinals adding the fifth year.
Whether that translates to this winter remains to be seen.
Lets say the Cardinals want to move O’Neill, or Hudson. Would they try to do it before the tender deadline in mid November? Or tender a contract and maybe be looking at arbitration, and then hope to work a trade afterwords? What would other teams be looking to do with their non-tender candidates?
Yet the way the team’s luck has gone lately, it’ll probably end up with the 10th pick or something.
And the cubs, Yankees and Reds will get the top 3 picks, lol.
bb asked:
Lets say the Cardinals want to move O’Neill, or Hudson. Would they try to do it before the tender deadline in mid November? Or tender a contract and maybe be looking at arbitration, and then hope to work a trade afterwords?
I don’t know, but my guess is it doesn’t matter in the context of money. Because of the long history of arbitration salaries, everyone already knows about what the two will make in 2024.
However in terms of roster reconfiguration, perhaps the Cardinals would like to get clarity as soon as possible.
Brian,
I think you’re right about the Cardinals wanting clarity.
To me, the sooner they know – the better.
Clarity early, but they would also want to get value for anyone they are offing. That could pressure things the other way.
The draft order for the top 10 teams, top 9, if I understand it correctly, since the Nationals already are locked into the 10th slot, will be determined at the winter meetings in San Diego, Dec. 5-7. That could affect the Cardinals willingness to sign a player with a Qualifying Offer, since they will still have a chance at the number 1 overall pick until after Dec. 7.
I don’t think the Cardinals would lose their highest pick by signing someone with a QO. It is my understanding they would lose their second highest pick.
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