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I don’t know who you guys imagine playing 3B if they do somehow off NA. There are two UTs and a guy who got sent out because he couldn’t hit. One of the UTs is needed in the OF amd the other one is getting out hit by Siani.
Based on JNevel’s analysis I DO think the Cardinals are a train wreck.
Take Goldy off 1B and Winn has a ton more throwing errors for sure.
The outfield is a complete disaster.
OBP as a team is only slightly above whale poop.
The starting pitching is average and unsettled moving forward at best and just plain bad at worst.
The bullpen was good this year but that is no guarantee moving forward as we all know about year to year relief pitching.
What about injuries next year? You know they are going to happen.
If quite a few of our starting players and pitchers are only borderline major leaguers you can be pretty sure whoever will replace them when injuries happen will be worse.
I’ve always said when projecting performance and you get to three, “If player x can just do….” then it’s too much.
Unless there are is a massive turnover of this roster with massive upgrades across the board I’m thinking 2025 is going to look a whole lot like 2024.
Sure, 3 starters and 3 bullpen assets could arrive via the farm to go with what’s coming back, and Walker, Nootbar, Gorman, Scott, Siani, Pages, and Saggasse could all turn into good hitters & fielders…..but, are you willing to bet on all of that or hell, even half of that happening?
are you willing to bet on all of that or hell, even half of that happening?
It should be admitted that there is a fair chance none of it will happen, but also consider this: if everyone is sucking simultaneously, it is probably not them. There is probably a common denominator. If that common denominator can be identified and changed, then they all might stop sucking simultaneously. That concept underlies my whole Cardinals world view.
Thank you everyone for the comments.
The position players have some upside, but there’s also a lot of potential that we will get similar results to this year. The only plus positions (yes Bling, we do have some pluses) are at C and SS. I think we will be around average at 4 other spots and maybe 5 with the B & B platoon at 1B. That’s not terrible. Neither is that good. Without some change, the offense is likely to not exceed just above average with a strong potential to underperform again. I think that means change will have to happen on offense despite the limited budget. So keep that in mind as we move forward on our journey.
I’m not going to talk about the bench other than to say that right now I think it would be Baker, one of Herrera/Pages, an outfielder to be named later, and Saggese as the new Edman/Donovan super utility role.
Onto the pitching. So many starter options . . .
Gray – He’s in. He’s good. Except when he gives up lots of home runs. We’re also paying him $25 mil next season.
Fedde – He’s also in. That’s why we traded for him. He’s unexciting to me. But I see no reason to ditch him when we need reliable pitchers and he’s that.
Pallante – He absolutely should be in. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. He might be our best starter at this point. I’ve always loved Pallante. But I’m still in a bit of disbelief at the incredible turnaround he’s been able to make on getting more K’s, issuing fewer BB’s, and becoming far more effective against right handed hitters. And he did all that in a span of a couple months. Crazy! The only thing I worry about with him is can he hold on for a full season of starter innings?
Mikolas – Miles has been up and down all year. When he’s down, he’s been a complete disaster. When he’s up, he seems to be really outdueling other pitchers. He’s a workhorse who’s likely to pitch over 175 innings again this season. There’s something to be said for that. But he’ll be a year older and turn 37 midseason next year. You can be almost sure that he’s still going to have blow-ups where he is non-competitive in some games next year if he’s a starter. He’s also owed nearly $18 mil. Someone might take him if we pay $8 mil of that, but we’re not getting any prospect of potential back in that scenario. So really the question is, is it better to set $8 mil on fire and allow Mikolas to pitch elsewhere or spend $18 mil watching him pitch for us. I think the forum here will say burn the $8 mil. But I think it’s a close call even though I’m leaning a little that way too.
Gibson – We’d have to give Gibson an additional $11 mil to pitch for us next season. When you look at the numbers all the way down to FIP and XFIP and XERA, Gibson is essentially Mikolas. He gets a few more strikeouts and issues a few more walks. But they get the same results. Therefore, that really made me think about my choice above to buy Gibson’s option. He’s one year older than Miles. If I want someone else to join the 5 man rotation, I need to get rid of one of Mikolas or Gibson. And Gibson is the easier of the two to offload. I might change my mind on Gibson and say we need to move on from his option. This is why it helps to walk through this step by step.
Lynn – It’s been fun. I love watching Lance. But we need to move on. The peripherals are ugly. He has allowed a lot of unearned runs that help his ERA. And he’s just old. He’s not worth $11 mil for next year.
Matz – There should never be another conversation about Matz being a planned starter. He can’t stay healthy in that role. He could be a fallback option if someone gets hurt in Spring Training. But otherwise, he needs to be in the pen or get traded. I think he’d be valuable in the pen. Probably not worth his contract valuable, but I don’t think we’re going to find any takers where we wouldn’t have to pay most of it anyway in a trade. Therefore, I plan to have Matz in the pen.
McGreevey – He’s ready for the show. He’s made steady improvement all year. He looked great in his one call-up. We’re going to likely see him again this month (I’m betting anyway). I think he gets a shot next season and I believe he’s earned it.
No one else is ready. Graceffo just doesn’t have consistency yet and I think he’s going to end up in the bullpen at least temporarily. No, Mathews is not ready. Robberse, Bedell, and Kloffenstein look like number 6 or 7 guys who are fine as back-ups in case of injury, but shouldn’t be the primary plans. Hence is having trouble staying healthy and may be destined for the pen. Roby and Hjerpe are too far out and need to stay healthy themselves. Rajcic needs to improve his ERA. Komar needs to prove he can pitch at AAA first. That’s lots of depth but no impact guys yet.
That’s 8 options for starting pitcher without going to the outside (note that I am not including Liberatore on purpose). I think that means we stay in-house. The real question becomes whether or not they pick up either of those 2 options. I’m now teetering on letting Gibson and Lynn both move on. They could try to move Mikolas as well and maybe pick someone up. There are a lot of starters set to be free agents. But I don’t know that we have the budget to get the good ones and if we’re not getting a good one, then Gibson is going to be fine for the value. Lots to think about here. And again, not a lot of high-end potential. But an ok floor.
I don’t know who you guys imagine playing 3B if they do somehow off NA. There are two UTs and a guy who got sent out because he couldn’t hit. One of the UTs is needed in the OF amd the other one is getting out hit by Siani.
Trading Arenado would not be about getting better. It would be about reducing payroll which Mo has already strongly hinted about with his recalibrating comment. It could be Gorman, Saggesse, Fermin, or Manny Motter as long as they are cheap.
That’s some fantastic work Jnevel and the rest of you guys. I’d even suggest pinning it for reference as we head into next season.
I think the rotation will be Gray, Mikolas, Fedde, Pallante and a laundry list guy, with McGreevy the favorite.
Thanks Bling! I agree the rotation you have listed appears to be most likely.
Onto the Bullpen. The bullpen was the one clear strength this year. It wasn’t just good at the back end. It was good throughout. Most of that core group should be returning (sans Kittredge). There’s also plenty of pitchers at AAA who can fill innings. That makes the bullpen our least concern. I think it’s highly unlikely that the team adds anyone to the pen through free agency. There aren’t enough roster spots to go around and the talent is already there where adding someone isn’t likely to move the needle much unless its an elite reliever and we don’t have the money for an elite reliever. Expect no changes other than a mix and match of guys who are all on the 40-man roster. I believe that list will include Hence, Bedell, and Roby as I stated somewhere a lot earlier in this post.
No need to talk about each pitcher here. I’ll just put them into categories:
Elite: Helsley
Good: Romero, Liberatore, Matz, Fernandez, King
Average: Leahy
Marginal with Potential to be Average or Good: O’Brien, Thompson, Loutos, Roycroft
Starters on 40-man who can be Relief Options: Graceffo, Kloffenstein, Robberse, Bedell, Thompson, Hence, Roby
Additional Reinforcements Not on the 40-Man: Wilking Rodriguez, Andre Granillo, Matt Svanson
Option Available for $5 million more: Middleton (although not likely picked up)
I think it will be Helsley, Liberatore, Romero, Matz, Fernandez, King, Graceffo, and whoever does best in ST of Leahy, O’Brien, or Roycroft.
That means I think Thompson gets cut in ST since he’s out of options and he ends up elsewhere. We have too many lefties already. He isn’t good enough to be in the rotation and I don’t see him as better than King, Matz, Romero, and Liberatore. Therefore, barring injuries, he’ll be the odd man out. It’s a shame too as he was a #1 pick and he does have some strikeout ability. Maybe they can include him in a trade.
And yes, I do think Graceffo will be in the MLB pen to start next season. I think he excels there as well.
Loutos has morphed into the closer at Memphis and has racked up an impressive number of saves. I think they have used Roycroft as the bus ride guy so Loutos could get 9th inning reps in Memphis.
McGreevy being called up per Watie Koo.
https://x.com/katiejwoo/status/1836436145502028222?t=TV42atP-CL-gxXwbp_MJOg&s=19
Liberatore’s emergence as a very reliable bullpen weapon could be huge for us. I know there are a few fans still grasping at the belief he can be a starter but we need to accept him for what he is. If he can give us 4 or 5 years as a high leverage 7th or 8th inning guy then the Arozarena trade will look different.
I agree GScott. I was steadfast for a long time Lib should be a starter. But his value is highest as that guy who can pitch more than one inning more than once a week.
jnevel–
Great work. I’m really grateful for it! Three quick thoughts.
1) I share your sense that Mikolas might not be as bad an option as imagined. Per Fangraphs, his xFIP and WAR are virtually identical to Gibson. But… (a) I’ve had some sense that he’s gotten worse as the season goes on and that Gibson hasn’t, and I wonder what that presages. My guts tell me that I’d rather have Gibson next year, but I’ve not put my head into it enough; (b) If it’s Gray, Pallante, Fedde, Mikolas, McGreevy, I’m less sure that I trust the 6th starter options. I’d really like to go into the spring with one more starter and let McGreevy lurk at Memphis for when he’s needed. Maybe later in the year someone else will be ready, but I hate counting on that early in the year. So I’m inclined to bring back both Mikolas and Gibson. But I don’t know how that would limit the rest of the budget.
2) I’m assuming they trade for an OF, and that this trade involves at couple folks on the 40-man. I’d think that Herrera would be attractive as trade bait, and perhaps Gorman, too. We have depth at catcher so can afford to trade Herrera. A two for one would free up another space.
3) I am drifting toward thinking about bringing back Goldy for one more year based on his second half work. Curious what you think about that. So I’d envision an OF of new guy, Siani, Noot. If Walker can hit the low outside pitch, Noot becomes 4th OF. IF of Arenado, Winn, Donovan, Goldy. Contreras at C. Burly/Baker at DH when Contreras isn’t there. Saggese as utility IF. Pages as backup C.
Thanks again. I love this kind of discussion.
Gags – Thanks for the comments.
I’ve spent some time thinking about all those things. Some of it may play out when I finally get around to writing about what I think the Cardinals will do. As for Mikolas/Gibson, it is more insurance to keep both. But if the budget needs to be cut, those are the 2 easiest ways to cut it. Arenado is complicated, Matz probably doesn’t have enough value to be worth even trying to trade, and Gray isn’t going to be traded. So you’re left with not exercising Gibson and potentially trading Miles.
It depends on how much they cut the payroll. This year’s 40 man payroll was in the neighborhood of $175M. If they go all the way down to $150 it would be difficult to have both Mikolas and Gibson but if payroll is around $160 it could be done. I would bring Gibson back if it were me. No on Lynn though.
If you go all the way back to where we left off with who would be protected in the Rule 5 draft, we ended up with 38 players on the roster. Those 38 include an option being picked up on Kyle Gibson. As I’ve discussed, I’m still really on the fence about whether that’s a wise choice or not, but I’m not doing this as me. I’m doing this trying to project what the Cardinals will do. I’m going to stick with my gut on this one and say they’ll go ahead and bring Gibson back for the additional $11 million. It provides security in the rotation. It also pushes McGreevey out of the rotation if everyone is health. Note that there’s almost always someone not healthy enough to start the season, so the point may be moot.
38 isn’t a lot to work with. But remember that they have a few guys sitting at the end of the roster who are extra pitchers that can be discarded as needed to open up roster space. Thompson is out of options and there’s no clear path for him to make the roster barring injuries. Loutos and Roycroft are middle relief guys that probably don’t have a big impact if lost, although it’s likely someone would claim them.
What do we need most?
We have plenty of starters. I know many of you would like to raise the bar there, but that costs lots of cash which we apparently don’t have. Or, it costs a lot of trade capital, which could happen, but seems unlikely since it’s not a position of need.
We have plenty of relievers. One could get signed. Kittredge is a candidate. But the team really doesn’t need a reliever. There are just so many internal options.
So we’re down to hitters. And hitters is where this team failed miserably in 2024. JP wrote an interesting article on Viva El Birdos yesterday about how everyone blamed Jeff Albert for our playoff drought and ran him out of town despite the team having a top 5 offense. Now we have a bottom 5 offense. And while Taylor Ward is occasionally blamed, it’s not been nearly as loud as Albert. JP has some interesting theories on that.
Here’s my list of positions in order of what looks to be the most glaring need:
RF: This is the position where we could end up with the least value with our in-house candidate. It also could work out ok. Jordan Walker will almost assuredly still be a negative value defender. He likely does continue some marginal improvement there though. He has great speed. And he has a great arm. He just needs better reads. And that comes with time. He has time all offseason, so he probably progresses some, but it may not be by much. The more important factor though is can he hit? With his defense and the fact that he’s playing a premium offensive position and providing negative defensive value, he has to hit over .800 OPS to be valuable. This season he is at .608. Last season he was at .787. He doesn’t turn 23 until May. So yes, he could get there. But this position could also be a disaster for the Cardinals offense and defense. I believe the Cardinals continue to have him start in RF. They’ve already gone a long ways down this path and moving him to 1B doesn’t make sense to me. He could be a full-time DH. That is possible and might be the best move in the short-run, but making him a better right fielder is the best move in the long run (if he can get there). So I think the Cardinals stay pat with this one.
CF: This is our worst offensive position by a mile. We discussed Siani way up above. A true dichotomy. Elite at defense. Terrible at offense. Folks, he’s not a guy that should play every day. He is valuable. He serves a great role on the bench. But this team needs offense in a big way. And Siani cannot provide it. Victor Scott probably isn’t ready yet. He may also never even get to average offensively. Therefore, this position has to come from the outside (don’t coax yourself into thinking Nootbaar is an every day CFer – he’s not). I believe the Cardinals will either sign someone or more likely trade for someone who is a solid CFer and who can hit and who has 1 or 2 years left on their contract. This could be a huge upgrade to the lineup as you get a lot of bang for your buck going from Siani to above average hitter. This is where the front office will concentrate on upgrading.
1B: I said above that I’m fine with a Burly/Baker platoon. I’m still good with that. Burleson crushes righties and is bad against lefties. Baker crushes lefties and is ok against righties. Baker can also DH some or come in as a pinch hitter against a lefty reliever. I’m not in love with this option because of the defensive drop. But compared to what Goldy gave us this year, this is a huge upgrade on the offensive side. And, it keeps Burleson out of the outfield.
2B: This should go to Donovan. He will be a very good hitting second baseman with better defense than Gorman was providing. This is both a big upgrade offensively and defensively to what we got from Gorman this year.
DH: This is probably going to be Nolan Gorman mostly with a little Baker sprinkled in and several others being used on off days. The team could upgrade in RF and put Walker here. But I don’t think they will. They could also trade Gorman away to improve CF or RF. That’s a possibility. But I’m betting they keep him another year and this is the role he mostly “plays”.
All of that isn’t sexy. It doesn’t even seem like that big of a change. But it does change our regular starters at 1B, 2B, and CF. The defense stays roughly the same (maybe marginally better by keeping Burleson out of the OF if Walker makes some improvement) and the offense gets better . . . if Walker can hit which is a Big IF. With Saggese on the bench, it also provides some more depth where Donovan can move to a corner outfield spot and Saggese takes over at 2B without too much of a loss.
All of that to say that 1 of those spots on the 40-man is going to a CFer to be named later – likely via trade. I think the other spot is going to be there as an opportunity to take advantage of the market. They will first look at Rule 5 guys as options, next look at free agents they could sign for a good price because of timing, and finally look at guys that get DFA’d off someone’s roster who could be of future value. They also may just re-sign Kittredge.
I’m honestly a little disappointed in all of this. I’m hoping for a little bigger splash. But this is what I see the team doing. And it could work. The offense could get much better. The starting pitching might be better – especially with having Fedde and Pallante all season. The bullpen probably won’t be better, but it may not be any worse. That’s the optimist side. The pessimist says you’re running out virtually the same team that you ended with. Arenado will be a year older. Contreras may break down. 1B could provide more errors. And Walker might be a disaster in RF. In all likelihood, we get around an 85 win team again. Kind of boring. Kind of Cardinals.
I believe the Cardinals will either sign someone or more likely trade for someone who is a solid CFer and who can hit and who has 1 or 2 years left on their contract. This could be a huge upgrade to the lineup as you get a lot of bang for your buck going from Siani to above average hitter. This is where the front office will concentrate on upgrading.
A good hitting CF with some control sounds good…not sure who actually fits that bill that the Cards could trade for, though. Any ideas?
That sounds nice and all, but who fits into this category?
I have mentioned Luis Robert many times as a trade candidate for CF. He is a high risk high reward guy. I repeat high risk high reward. He could be top 5 MVP or he could be hurt all year with a .650 OPS.
Lack of offense from CF is hardly the problem. Gloves up the middle is fine, but you need offense from the four corner positions. We didn’t get diddly, so that is the problem needing attention before all else.
Nootbaar and Arenado are set. I’m guessing they stay with Walker in RF. Since he has less history to draw from and is so young, I think his OPS could be anywhere from .650 to .850. Baker/Burleson in combo should OPS over .800 at 1B if used in tandem against opposite side pitchers. With additional offense from CF and 2B, that elevates the team offense far above this season assuming Walker does well. If he doesn’t, then we end up likely back at mediocre or just above. I agree it’s not a great plan. I’m just predicting where I think the team is headed based on past history and where they are today.
The bench is also far more useful in this plan. Saggese is a late game defensive replacement for Donovan while serving as Winn’s backup. And, he allows the team to use Donovan as an outfielder if one of them gets hurt. That’s far more useful than Crawford. And it’s a better plan than playing Burleson out there as the replacement like we did this season. Baker gives the team a full season of a right-handed pinch hitting complement against lefties. And, he pairs perfectly with Burleson. That’s a no-brainer upgrade to Carpenter who couldn’t play a position and didn’t work in any platoon. Siani then becomes a guy who can pinch run late game and become a defensive replacement for Walker. That’s where his value is best. Either Pages or Herrera works fine as the second catcher.
This is a “safe” plan that doesn’t add to payroll. And, from my perspective, looks like an upgrade to 2023. But it comes with a huge question mark in RF.
Robert would be an expensive gamble. Salary alone is $15 million next season plus team options at $20 MM for 2026 and 2027 or $2 MM buyouts. So $19 MM for one year, $37 MM for two or $55 MM for three.
Kind of a supersized Marcell Ozuna deal, but of course, the primary issue with him was the players the Cardinals gave up for him…
the primary issue with him was the players the Cardinals gave up for him…
That and the ho-hum 106 OPS+.
I don’t know why anyone would be penciling Jordan Walker and his .600 OPS into right field next year.
If the Cardinals want to get the turnstiles turning, they can’t “hope” Walker emerges, they need to actually get a corner outfield bat (really, they need two corner outfield bats).
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