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That’s where I landed with this exercise as well Brian. I don’t see a lot of player changes happening – at least not for early 2025. A new CFer may be brought in. Gorman could be traded. Someone else might be picked up on the cheap to supplement. I don’t think much else will occur. I’ll probably be completely wrong because that’s the way it works.
And with Walker, it’s not that crazy to believe that a 23 year old can put up at least the same hitting numbers he put up as a 21 year old and that his defense will continue to improve with more reps. Will he be good enough to truly add value at the right field position above league average? That’s the million dollar question. Still though, it’s not crazy to expect that he could.
Agreed on Walker. He’s been too good at too many levels, including MLB, to be irreparably broken. At 23, there’s still some time. It’s clear that a new approach is majorly needed across the entire system. We saw it with pitching this year, so hopefully hitting changes are underway as well.
It depends on the definition of staff changes. If its LaRocque and some guys most of the BFIB never heard of, then no it won’t fly.
I don’t think staff changes will grab many fans’ attention – that is reserved for ‘name’ players.
No matter who they sign or what other changes they make the only real path I see to recapturing their fans is winning a lot more and then advancing in the playoffs.
If they make splashy changes and then sputter early again on the field the interest and attendance of fans will plummet very quickly as patience has already worn thin.
If the product on the field isn’t significantly improved next year I think this year’s attendance will look great by comparison. I’d bet the number of tickets sold during the off season will be much lower so it’s likely they will be chasing ticket sales all season – they really do have to win in 2025 to balance the books so to speak.
Agreed on Walker. He’s been too good at too many levels, including MLB, to be irreparably broken.
I don’t think that is a given. Maybe it took that first season for opponents to perfect pitching and defensive strategies against him. Now it is up to him, and his handlers, to adjust. A year was just devoted to that with marginal results. He looks like the same hitter to me. Unless they center it over the inner half he is effectively nerfed.
Thanks again for the thoughtful work, jnevel. I wonder if Noot is really set to be LF. Given injury history, I wonder if they make Noot the 4th OF, with Walker getting DH maybe 50 games, new RF and Noot also playing some DH. I suspect Siani stays as CF till Scott’s bat is more ready. His D helps protect against Walker’s weak D. We’re More likely to get a big bat in RF than CF, and they need a big bat. They have catchers with more on the way up so can afford to deal from that position. I wonder what Herrera and Gorman could bring in an RF. What would need to be added to get the bat they need?
Was Walkers 2023 in mlb a mirage?
A BAbip that lead our regulars, but a bottom feeding RE24?
Then in 2024 he drops 100 pts of BAbip in a MUCH smaller sample, and craters.
They’ve got about 15 guys for C, DH, 1B and corner outfield. This offseason may be very humorous.
I have no idea whether Walker is screwed up, but I know if my job was on the line, I would not be betting on Walker’s .600 OPS in MLB and .753 OPS at Memphis.
No, coaching changes won’t rekindle fan interest. An exciting offense will. Using the same players that under-achieved this year won’t ignite the offense.
Robert would be an expensive gamble. Salary alone is $15 million next season plus team options at $20 MM for 2026 and 2027 or $2 MM buyouts. So $19 MM for one year, $37 MM for two or $55 MM for three.
Those would be very reasonable salaries for 2023 Robert but not for the 2024 version, hence the risk.
Changing out Marmol would be cheaper that signing the kind of bat we need. Maybe that plus what we can trade for. Any FAs come off the scratch and dent shelf.
Update- according to Skyriec on Via El Birdos, Thompson should be awarded a 4th minor league option for 2025. That means he would not have to make the major league squad out of camp. I have mixed emotions about whether this is good or bad. But if nothing else, it makes Thompson slightly more valuable as a trade candidate. Maybe he finds some consistency? That hasn’t really happened for longer than a few months.
I have Thompson in the same box as Liberatore, except that Thompson seems to be fading and Liberatore not so much. Neither has been able to establish consistent success when trying to hold down a rotation slot. They both have trouble stopping the bleeding and being efficient. Liby has enjoyed what success he has had to the extent they will let him do what he can do, which is work out of the pen as a one inning guy. We don’t really know if Thompson could be successful doing that because they persist with having him do what we already know he cannot do. They are succeeding in getting the least possible utility out of two talented 1st round quality talents. As I have said, Bloom has the advantage of it being unlikely he could do any worse.
It takes young players time to mature. Let’s hope Walker’s September numbers carry over into 2025 and he’s really ready now – .780 OPS, with
5 home runs in 25 games.If anyone in the Cardinal organization has a brain they will focus on making Libby the best possible reliever he can be. There is a mountain of data to suggest he is much better in the pen than as a starter. There was a mention in a recent Derrick Goold chat of the Cardinals trying to turn Libby into the 2016 version of Andrew Miller. I don’t know how feasible that is but it would be a much more worthy objective than trying to make him a starter.
I know Libby has nothing to do with the Rule 5 draft but his name came up when discussing Thompson so it made me think of it.
Let’s hope Walker’s September numbers carry over into 2025
I would not want his 26% September K rate to carry over.
Libby faces too many righties as a starter. The opposing manager gets to stack his lineup pregame.
As a reliever, Oli can manage Libbys handedness splits better. The last 3 seasons he’s allowed a 180, 137 and 133 ops+ to rhb’s. He still needs to add an effective pitch vs righties.
I have mentioned Luis Robert many times as a trade candidate for CF. He is a high risk high reward guy. I repeat high risk high reward. He could be top 5 MVP or he could be hurt all year with a .650 OPS.
Robert has never played at a top 5 MVP level. It’s fine to fall in love with tools at 20 or 21 but he’s 27 now and shown what he’s likely to be going forward. Siani was twice as valuable as Robert last year even without a bat.
Well he did receive MVP votes in 2023. He finished 12th I believe.
Regardless, I probably posted that a few months ago or longer. That was before the Cardinals announced the reset. The discussion regarding acquiring someone like Robert is now a moot point.
If we’re looking at where the Cardinals are today roster wise it’s pretty straightforward, I think, except on the fringes of the pen.
Starters
C: Herrera (R)
1B: Burleson/Baker Platoon (L/R)
2B: Donovan (L)
3B: Arenado (R)
SS: Winn (R)
LF: Nootbaar (L)
CF: Siani (L)
RF: Walker (R)
DH: Contreras (R)Bench:
Backup C: Pages (R)
Utility: Saggese (R)
1B/PH: Burleson/Baker (L/R)
4th OFer: Koperniak (L)Lots of ifs here which is the nature of going young but this should be a greatly improved offense over the 2024 version and there’s really not a downgrade defensively. Goldy hasn’t been peak defensive Goldy in a couple years (0 DRS in 2024) and Burleson isn’t a bad defender at 1B. Koperniak can’t play CF but Noot can. If Koperniak tears the cover off the ball in spring training then move Noot to CF and put Koperniak in left with Siani in the 4th OFer role. Saggese allows them to retain the flexibility they’ve had with Donovan in the OF if needed but I’d rather see a more settled roster this year for the young guys’ sake. Give them a role and let them fill it every day.
SP:
1. Gray
2. Fedde
3. McGreevy
4. Pallante
5. Mikolas/Matz/LiberatoreI actually like this rotation. Pitching wasn’t really the issue last year. With an average offense they win 90+ games last year with the pitching staff they had and this one isn’t any worse with the potential to be much better. Pallante worries me because he’s Mikolas with a lot more walks and better batted ball luck but maybe he’s actually figured out the Glavine Secret for inducing weak contact. I think the likely outcome is Mikolas in the 5th spot providing bulk innings at the back end of the rotation. They’re going to need someone like that to help offset the two young guys in the middle of the rotation.
Bullpen:
Closer: Helsley
LH Setup: Romero
RH Setup: Loutos
Middle: Fernandez, King, Leahy
The two of Mikolas, Matz, Liberatore that don’t win the 5th spotThis is a very strong bullpen. How the 5th starter spot turns out would shuffle some pieces. If it’s Matz and Liberatore (my opinion it’s the likely outcome) in the pen then trade King and bring up another righty from the minors or use it as a shuttle spot for fresh arms.
Notable names that are missing:
Nolan Gorman – He has two options left. Unless he just destroys the ball in the spring and shows some zone recognition you send him to AAA to work with Ludwick. There’s still a good player here with what is said to be a great work ethic. That’s something you try to fix. He’s made himself into at worst an average defensive 2B and could always move back to 3B if they moved Arenado. The swing and confidence have to be fixed first though.
Victor Scott II: – Love the speed. Love the glove. He doesn’t have an MLB quality swing or physicality. I’ve wanted them to trade him basically since they drafted him if they could find a sucker to take him. Short of a total swing and approach rework I don’t think he’s ever anything but a defensive replacement and pinch runner. Even if he can rework the swing he’s at best an average MLB bat. There’s no underlying power to tap into here and I don’t think think he has the eye to become an ultra selective on base machine that would allow him to tap into his speed on the bases.
If anyone in the Cardinal organization has a brain they will focus on making Libby the best possible reliever he can be. There is a mountain of data to suggest he is much better in the pen than as a starter. There was a mention in a recent Derrick Goold chat of the Cardinals trying to turn Libby into the 2016 version of Andrew Miller. I don’t know how feasible that is but it would be a much more worthy objective than trying to make him a starter.
I know Libby has nothing to do with the Rule 5 draft but his name came up when discussing Thompson so it made me think of it.
Even if he only turns into a solid 3rd starter that’s much more valuable than a middle reliever/multi inning guy.
Oz – you came to essentially the same conclusions that I did in my Rule 5/Roster piece a couple months back except that I had them acquiring a CFer and putting Siani on the bench where you have Koperniak. Plus I had Graceffo in the bullpen and Loutos on the Memphis shuttle.
However, it seems like it’s highly highly likely that some of the pricier players are going to be traded away. Maybe most of them. Arenado, Contreras, and Helsley all seem likely to me with Matz & Fedde being around 50/50 odds. I’m of the opinion that Gray doesn’t want to go anywhere else and Mikolas just isn’t worth trading with all the money they’d eat. That does change the landscape of who makes the roster next year by quite a bit.
Even if he only turns into a solid 3rd starter that’s much more valuable than a middle reliever/multi inning guy.
True but there is little evidence that he is capable of that. He has had multiple chances to be a starter and flopped. I think he could be a real weapon as a reliever.
There needs to be some acceptance of reality with Libby and also Herrera, who is not going to be the catcher. We’ve discussed both at length already.
As to the proposed roster above, I expect several will be gone by opening day.
I’ve wanted Libby to stay in the bullpen since last winter. I thought it was a mistake to keep jacking him around all season from reliever to starter, from starter to reliever.
I’m still in favor of extending Helsley rather than trading him. He’s as close to an impact player as we’ve got. Nobody trades their ‘impact prospect’ if they have one in their system. It would be like the Cardinals trading Wetherholt for a player like Helsley. If they trade Helsley, they’re going to get a Chase Davis, Victor Scott, Jimmy Crooks type of player, not a Matthews or a Wetherholt or a Hence. This team is not that far away from contending in the weak NL Central, especially if they can hold onto their dominant closer, Ryan Helsley.
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