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“I’m also going to have to believe that those precise same analytics undoubtedly say that with a precarious 1 run lead in the 7th inning it would be a better idea to hand the baseball to Zsa Zsa Gabor than to place it in the hand of the pitcher who was entrusted to protect that 1 run lead. Does anyone have a vague idea of what the analytics indicate about that?”
Okay, whoever had Zsa Zsa Gabor in the comments thread celebrity pool, collect your winnings. 🙂
It isn’t enough to criticize Marmol for removing Jordan Montgomery who (1)was cruising and (2)at just 89 pitches and (3)about to face the bottom of the Tigers order — and inexplicably inserting Hicks with a slender 1-run lead. Marmol did even more than that! After Hicks issued the leadoff walk, and two batters later plunked a man after getting ahead in the count 1-2, Marmol still left him in. Whereupon poor Hicks immediately surrendered the double that put the Birds behind to stay.
For Ollie Marmol the 7th inning clearly wasn’t about trying to stop a losing streak. It was about trying to fix a pitcher who hasn’t had a sub-4.80 ERA since 2019. Marmol is a bad leader, a bad tactician, a bad, well, pretty much everything you can be as an MLB manager. He was bailed out of a mediocre 2023 season by the spectacular trade deadline results. That ain’t happening again.
“…managers have used the 100 pitch threshold for a long time now. It’s not new.”
It’s a rough guideline, not an absolute by any means. We know for a fact there is no “100 pitch limit” for Jordan Montgomery, for instance. Specifically, he threw 107 pitches on April 24th, and came back on the 29th to pitch very effectively against the Dodgers in his next start, allowing 1 run in 6.2 IP.
And last year, in the follow-up to his season-high 108-pitch outing of 8/12, he was also outstanding on regular rest, permitting just 1 run in 5.2 innings. Therefore, based on all available evidence of 2022 and 2023, there is no reason to think 105-110 pitches would physically compromise Montgomery in any way. And obviously no reason to think he would be any less effective in his next start.
When it comes to pitch counts, I understand erring on caution’s side. If Monty had thrown 10-12 more pitches, mayyybe you pull him after 6. Or with a 3-4 run lead, you can pull him after 6. Or if ANYONE other than Hicks* of all people was coming in to protect the one-run lead, you can pull him.
But the way Marmol managed the 7th inning was exactly the way I’d have wanted him to manage it — top and bottom half of the inning — if I were a Tigers fan.
An itemized list of this season’s Marmolian idiocies would be too painful to compile and too tedious to read, so my humanitarianism precludes it. But tonight, Hicks Loss II, would easily make the grade.
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*Jordan Hicks last posted a sub-4.80 ERA during the 2019 season. Someone please remind the Cardinal manager of this “analytic” fact.
Cardinal pitching splits, compared to the MLB average, and presented without comment.
1st inning .921 OPS allowed. (MLB avg. .774)
2nd inning .980. (MLB avg. .725)Low Leverage .683 (MLB avg. .720)
High Leverage .925 (MLB avg. .758)Late & Close .990 (MLB avg. .682)
And one more set of splits:
Redbird pitchers with Contreras behind the plate, 5.16 ERA and .824 OPS allowed (200 IP).
Redbird pitchers with Knizner behind the plate, 3.53 and .690 OPS (80 IP).“Contreras a good sign.”
No. When they couldn’t trade for a clearly superior and much cheaper backstop like Sean Murphy or Alejandro Kirk, they should have settled on the in-house options and seen how that went, at least until June or so.
Contreras again tonight, already butchered another strikeout. Connor Joe, 2nd inning, 2-2 count, pitch over the middle of the plate at the bottom of the strikezone. Beautiful pitch from Monty. But because Contreras had set up a foot inside (don’t ask me why so darn far inside), he wasn’t even able to catch the pitch, much less hold it in place to receive the strike call. He did not even catch the ball. He boxed it.
And again, he is doing this every single game. He is atrocious.
“Weren’t there a lot of posters wanting to trade Gorman? I’m sure glad we didn’t.”
If I could go back in time I’d still package Gorman in a deal for Sean Murphy. In a heartbeat. A hundred times out of a hundred.
Not because I don’t think Nolan Gorman is really good. But because Willson Contreras is terrible behind the plate, absolutely positively by far the worst Cardinal catcher back there that I can remember — and that goes back half a century. He cannot frame a pitch if it’s more than 3 inches from his target. Case in point the critical full count pitch from VerHagen today. The offering was half an inch low and one inch inside. That means it was a strike all day long for semi-blind ump Phil Cuzzi. (Incompetence was Cuzzi’s middle name today.)
But Contreras hadn’t set his target in that exact spot, and therefore when he reached to receive the pitch, he lunged with his usual clumsy exaggerated stabbing motion, making the borderline full-count strike appear nearly in the freaking dirt. It was an embarrassment to the catching profession. And he does this ALL THE TIME. I hated the signing with a passion, but I didn’t remotely realize how awful he would be at every single aspect of defense aside from throwing. And bear in mind when glancing at Willson’s poor career framing values, that instances like that VerHagen pitch probably do not count against him. Because it technically wasn’t a strike that he lost – but really, in the context of today’s game, it almost certainly was.
He’s conducted a clinic so far on how not to be a backstop. He’s already committed catcher’s interference, had a passed ball, and bungled a force out at the plate in two different ways on the same play. First by not keeping his foot on the plate, and second by not immediately telling his manager to ask for a replay — because of course he actually did make an excellent play by applying the tag on the runner. But of course that didn’t matter since he and Marmol were too stupid to immediately demand a review of the play.
Well at least there’s only 4.93 years to go on Contreras’ contract. Lucky us.
Meanwhile Ivan Herrera and Leonardo Bernal both homered today. Not that it matters.
“Ouch, yeah. Carlson last year vs LHP .305. Motter MLB career vs LHP .203.”
Crazy, ain’t it? I guess Carlson is this year’s whipping boy for Marmol. Inexcusable, really, to keep playing bad outfielders in LF — especially in Colorado where outfield defense is more important than any other park, and especially in order to shoehorn an old career mediocrity like Motter into the starting lineup over a young, still-developing player like Dylan Carlson. This is a mad scientist masquerading as an MLB manager, a man with no long-term plan for his team.
It’s just one game, yes, but it’s symptomatic of a much larger problem. Not unlike the very public berating of Tyler O’Neill. Real managers don’t do these things. Period.
“…Craig Kimbrel and Jason Kenley are 2 of the best 4 or 5 relievers in Big League history? If that’s indeed so, I need to pay closer attention…Haha!”
Maybe I’m just being stubborn but I don’t think my estimation of Kimbrel/Kenley has aged too poorly, Andujar. Kimbrel has had some struggles in recent years (the ranking dates to 2018, recall), but I think he and Jansen can still both be reasonably rated top 5 overall.
1) Mariano Rivera
No business at all being a unanimous HOFer, but definitely the best failed starter in history.2) Hoyt Wilhelm
Began his MLB career in relief exclusively, then was a hybrid arm for 6 or 7 years, then converted back to bullpen-only duty in ’64 by the White Sox. During his first 5 years in that role for the Southsiders his ERAs were 1.99, 1.81, 1.66, 1.31, and 1.73. (And he was averaging more than 100 innings per year as well.) Then in 1969 he finally slipped to a 2.19 ERA. But we should probably cut him some slack for that, as he was 46 years old.And then numbers 3 through 5 could be almost any trio from among Hall Of Fame relievers plus Billy Wagner, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Nathan, and Kimbrel & Kenley. But my chief argument for the latter two would be in the form of ERA/FIP, adjusted for ballpark and era.
Here’s the 5 most effective relievers in history (min. 500 IP) ordered according to the average of their ERA- and FIP- (lower is better, of course):
1)Rivera 53
2)Kimbrel 58
3)Wagner 59
4)Chapman 59
5)Jansen 62Mr. Wilhelm (just a 75 by this ERA/FIP yardstick) got a big bump from me for both Peak and Volume. I don’t see a viable argument for dislodging Wilhelm from Reliever Rushmore. On the other hand, if you prefer Billy Wagner to Kimbrel, or Chapman to Jansen, I wouldn’t say you’re wrong, Andujar. But I gently choose to disagree.
Every single miserable thing that’s happened with Jordan Hicks’ MLB career has been 100% foreseeable. Here’s an oldie but a goodie. All of the following is from November, 2018:
Last 7 starts of 2017 for Hicks, at age 20, across Low and High-A:
Posted a 1.21 ERA and sub-2.00 FIP, with a 40/9 K/BB, and better than a 4-1 Groundout/Flyout ratio, and zero home runs, and just 12.8 pitches per inning.For that brief shining period of time, Jordan Hicks and his blistering fastball possessed the Perfect Pitcher Profile™. And you don’t move a perfect pitcher to the bullpen. I cannot imagine a reason why I will ever relent in my belief that he should have stayed a starter until he showed he couldn’t be. Not with those numbers cited above.
The only way the St. Louis front office looks non-crazy in this matter, is if Hicks becomes as effective and durable as Kimbrel or Kenley. And that’s about a 100-1 shot, because those are 2 of the 4 or 5 best relievers in MLB history. What’s really going to happen, is Hicks will maybe be Trevor Rosenthal II, i.e., a sometimes great reliever who breaks down off and on over the next 3-5 years, because that’s what happens to 95-99% of relievers.
I feel terrible for Hicks. He was never given any chance to hone his craft, to learn anything much about how to pitch. And now that he’s in MLB, every outing will be about nothing more than getting through the inning. With just 20-something innings above Low-A ball before being shoved to the majors, he will never be what he could have been — whether that’s as a reliever or starter.
Ten or fifteen years from now, Mo will look back at Jordan Hicks’ career and reproach himself. As well he should. You don’t do to anyone what they’ve done to Hicks. (That’s why it pretty much never happens, with any pitcher, in any organization, ever.)
It may be deeply counterintuitive, Bling, but for prospect rankings, team W-L records are entirely irrelevant. All that matters is specific individuals and their talent.
Kinda like the Angels, with Trout & Ohtani. On that team those two individuals have talent of an historical importance — but the poor depth undoes the team record, year after year. Recall that very recently MLB front office types ranked the Redbird farm in the top 3 or 4. That’s where they belong. Not 9th, not even close.
“Don’t shoot the messenger.”
When the messenger delivers one message, the same exact message, again and again, more than a dozen times over the better part of a decade, and then at the end of that, he delivers an entirely different message that completely contradicts every one of the preceding messages, he deserves to be shot. And I’ll happily do the shooting. Metaphorically, of course.
I’m asking for far too much, I know, but it would be nice if just one time one of these “professional” prospect analysts publicly acknowledged (even in passing) that they have chronically underrated St. Louis minor leaguers. Just some tiny scrap of humility or mere self-awareness when it comes to this subject. It could be Callis. It could be Longenhagen or Law, McDaniel or Mayo. Anybody, doesn’t matter. How refreshing it would be if they didn’t just smugly mumble something about “Devil Magic” or “overperforming” and then swiftly move on to the next topic.
Anyway, what’s funniest about Pipeline’s #9 ranking is it doesn’t even make sense if you add up their individual player rankings for each team. By Pipeline’s own individual player rankings in their top 100 overall prospects, the Cardinals can’t reasonably rate behind the #6, #7, or #8 teams (Tampa, Texas, Pitt). The math won’t work, mostly because having a prospect ranked 4th overall is as valuable as a pair of prospects ranked around 20th — assuming all prospects are ranked accurately. They can claim the Birds are 9th but their own numbers say 6th.
Ranking all 30 farm systems
March 22nd, 2023
Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra (MLB)9. St. Louis Cardinals
2022 midseason rank: 13
2022 preseason rank: 16
2021 midseason rank: 21
2021 preseason rank: 17——————————————
Quoting their latest rankings article:
“Four members of that class (Walker, Winn, Hence, Burleson) have climbed into the Top 100, and 2021 fifth-rounder Graceffo joined them, solidifying St. Louis’ reputation as a master drafter and developer.”Wow. Really? A “master drafter and developer”? I’ll say this. Those incompetent hypocrites have certainly got a lot of nerve typing those words, after crapping on the Cardinal farm system over and over and over, in every single ranking they made since 2016. Two rankings per year, and the Cards never once higher than 14th until midseason of 2022 — and even then they only ranked the baby Birds 13th. That’s 13 consecutive rankings from 2016-22 wherein they (Callis + Mayo) ranked the Cards average-or-worse every single time. Every. Single. Time.
Doesn’t sound very masterful.
So, Corbin Carroll twice as likely as Walker. That makes sense to me, as CC is a guaranteed starter from Day One. Walker, far from it. But at any rate, here’s the odds from my website:
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – NATIONAL LEAGUE 2023 (ALL IN)
MLB 2023 AWARDS (ALL IN)Andrew Painter +4000
Bobby Miller +3559
Brennen Davis +8000
Brett Baty +3559
Cade Cavalli +1816
Eguy Rosario +10000
Elly De La Cruz +1200
Eury Perez +3300
Ezequiel Tovar +1053
Francisco Alvarez +1410
Jared Shuster +5000
Jordan Walker +285
Kyle Harrison +3500
Matt Mervis +3559
Matthew Liberatore +3559
Michael Busch +4500
Miguel Vargas +804
Noelvi Marte +2500
Quinn Priester +8000
Ryan Pepiot +4000
Sal Frelick +3044
Spencer Steer +2224
Corbin Carroll +385
Kodai Senga +854Eury Perez opened at 60-1 last week, so that was the best value in my opinion. (Of course, he ain’t 60-1 now.) Hey, what did the dachshund get when the kid dropped his ice cream cone? Frelick.
But truly, the Brewers have some serious outfield prospects. Jackson Chourio in particular, and Frelick is no slouch.
This, from eight days ago:
“I have little doubt the Padres will announce a lengthy deal for Manny before Opening Day. Best guess, 11 or 12 years and a dollar more than the Aaron Judge deal.”
So close it hurts. 😉
Thanks much, Euro.
I think they’re a touch over-enthused with Mejia, considering he fanned nearly 25% in the Dominican League and isn’t really rated a future shortstop. And Alec Willis should be higher than 17th, for me.But I listened to their Cardinal Top 10 Podcast thingy, and they liked Leo Bernal behind the plate, said he moved very well in fact. (Presumably that theoretically translates into fewer wild pitches/passed balls, if nothing else.) Sounded like they *wanted* to rank Bernal higher but didn’t get enough enthusiasm from their Industry Sources, whoever that is. That’s OK. I’ll be the lone voice who ranks him 5th in the farm system.
“Here’s their top five. Others can fill in the rest if they’d like.
1. Jordan Walker OF
2. Tink Hence RHP
3. Masyn Winn SS
4. Matthew Liberatore LHP
5. Cooper Hjerpe LHP”Thanks, Brian. Interesting that they like Hjerpe enough to jump him over a trio of guys they ranked in their overall top 100 last August. (Graceffo, Burleson, and Herrera, I believe.)
Funny how stubborn they’re being with Liberatore, and yet how they’ve also sorta given up on Herrera, who was an above average hitter in Triple-A at age 21. I think what’s happening is in fact that every single time BA puts out any prospect ranking, a different individual or groups of individuals put out the list. Hence, the bizarre lack of continuity/consistency.
But don’t ask a “scouty type” why they changed their opinion on someone, or you might get a defensive non-response like this:
Will: Hey Keith, love your work. I noticed Ezequiel Tovar fell from #25 on your midseason ranking to #69 on the top 100. What was the reason for such a big drop?
Keith Law: That’s the wrong way to look at these lists – they’re not sequential. I don’t look at my own midseason list before creating this one.
Poor Will. He even started out by immediately sucking up to Law, to counter Law’s reflexive animosity when questioned in any way, however benign. Over the past 12-15 years, I’ve seen Law asked some variation of this question 40 or 50 times, and never seen him give a straight answer.
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Anyway, with Hjerpe added to the list, that makes nine plausible top 100 types in the farm system. (I define “plausible” as anyone ranked on a respected national top 100 list, plus anyone else who was ranked ahead of multiple players who appeared on a top 100 list. So for the Cards, that means Walker, Winn, Graceffo, Hence, Herrera, Hjerpe, Bernal, Burleson, and Liberatore.
I confess I’m too painfully cheap for a BA subscription, Brian. On the bright side, I’ll die rich.
Could you please tell me where they rank Leonardo Bernal, Jimmy Dale Crooks 3, Alec Willis, and Jonathan Mejia? (I have them 5th, 11th, 9th, and 13th, respectively.) Thanks much!
If the mere numerical ranking placements are considered proprietary info, please forgive me. I know not the ethics in this instance.
“Maybe the logic is if teams “know” he is committed to opting out, they will plan to secure/retain the enormous pile of dry powder needed to sign him.”
Exactly this. It’s just a low-class move by Machado to publicly extort a long, long contract out of the Padres. He’s openly admitted his decision was driven by the offseason signings that have gone through other players’ age 40+ seasons. I have little doubt the Padres will announce a lengthy deal for Manny before Opening Day. Best guess, 11 or 12 years and a dollar more than the Aaron Judge deal.
2023 regular season win over/unders came in today from betonline.ag…
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals 88½
Milwaukee Brewers 85½
Chicago Cubs 77½
Pittsburgh Pirates 67½
Cincinnati Reds 65½Yup, no big surprises. Thanks for relaying the info, Brian. Those numbers are quite close to those that my website (bookmaker.eu) came up with:
Cards 89.5
Brewers 85.5
cubs 77.5
Pitt 66.5
Redlegs 64.5Overall top O/U totals
Hous 96.5
Dodgers 95.5
Yanks 95.5
Braves 95.5
Mets 94.5
Padres 93.5
Toronto 92.5
Cards 89.5
Phils 88.5
Milw 85.5I don’t see many value bets there. I did place a shekel against the Padres making the playoffs, since I got nearly 4-1 on that. For more conventional wagering, I’d probably feel safest betting the over on the Mets, as Showalter is one of the best regular season managers in recent MLB history. (October, not so much.)
Like BikeMike, I’d definitely take the over on the Birds at 88.5 — but I don’t bet Totals more than once or twice a decade, it’s not a strength of mine, and 88.5 isn’t egregiously low by any means. I just wish there were a prop bet for picking the precise win total for a team. Say, 10-1 or so. Then I’d take the Cards at 92. Boring but probably about right.
“My main criticism of Mo is that I would like to see more chances given guys who are athletic, and I am not sold on going with in house managers all the time.”
I agree on the last part, Mike. A solid veteran manager should be brought in next — assuming the front office refuses to consider Stubby Clapp for whatever reasons.
But I’m not sure what you mean by “more chances given guys who are athletic.” You mean, when drafting? Or in what way? The current 25-man roster seems strong in the field and on the bases, and Walker & Winn are on the way. I seek clarification, good sir!
“Nobody cares what DeJong did 5 or 6 years ago and we should care what Mo did 10 or 12 years ago even less. In both cases the career results trajectory has been on a downslope long enough that it is unrealistic to expect it to turn around at this point.”
I would argue that Mozeliak already turned things around, starting when he traded for Goldschmidt. Since then the Cards have won at least 90 games in each of the three full MLB seasons played.
The fascinating thing about Mo’s tenure is how it divides so clearly into three phases. After the 2007 season, he took over a sub-500 team with an aging MLB roster, and a mediocre farm system. The team immediately reversed course and has finished at least 10 games over .500 in 13 of 14 full seasons under Mo.
But after losing to the Cubs in the 2015 playoffs, for a few years there was a bad, bad, bad string of decisions. Leake, Fowler, Ozuna, Cecil, Holland, Gregerson, and Andrew Miller were all dud signings. And the 2016-18 Cards reflected that, winning just 83-88 games per year. Huge commitments, financial and psychological, were made to players just average or barely better. And to past-their-prime relievers with almost no tread left on their tires.
But then came the Goldy & Arenado trades, and the extraordinary 2020 draft, and now the team is quite well-positioned for the foreseeable future…provided they get a starting pitcher. Or two. And probably a new manager. But the latter will solve itself. If Marmol underperforms he’ll be replaced — if not, well, then he doesn’t need to be. And I fully expect a solid pitching addition in July.
I hate the Contreras signing, but it may not sting until 2025 or even 2026. We’ll see about that one. And although it bears numerous similarities to the Fowler signing debacle, the Contreras downside is less immense if only because catchers don’t play 25 games a month anymore.
Look to the gambling websites for the best information, as they of course have to be very good or they lose money. They do not like to lose money.
Per the website that regularly takes my donations, the Cards are basically twice as likely to win the division as the Brewers. It’s ten bucks to win eight, for the Birds. And 10 to win 16 on Milwaukee. It’s more or less a reversal of last year’s pre-season odds, when I bet the Cards at nearly 2-1.
One very strange thing is, there’s no over/under Totals yet, on my site. Lots of prop bets for individual players, and misc. MLB wagering possibilities. But no regular, boring Totals betting. I can guess from experience, though, that the Birds will be 88.5 or so, and the Brewers two or three below that. And since the Cards are either 7-2-1 or 8-2 (depending on the odds source) against the line since LaRussa retired, it’s a pretty safe wager that they beat the number.
“…people in the city of KC and its surrounding rural areas couldn’t care less about the latest fashionable trends or ideas.”
That’s not what I heard! Check it out:
“So, over 20% of the voters still decline to share their ballots. Why are they afraid of the sunshine?”
I can’t speak for any of the writers, but unlike, say, United States congressmen and women, the baseball writers aren’t representing the general public when they cast their Hall Of Fame votes, so I don’t see the imperative for transparency as many others do. There’s a thin line between criticism and coercion — particularly in the age of relentless so-called social media — so I’m fine with any writer who prefers the privacy of a secret ballot. Just my two centavos, good host.
