Some Masyn Winn numbers

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  • #228806
    Bob Reed
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    As most of you know, Winn got off to a very bumpy start in Triple-A this April. Like paint-shaker bumpy. When he came to the ballpark on April 26, he sported a lousy line of .211/.265/.295, with an equally dismal BB/K ratio of 6-to-25.

    Since that day, Masyn has hit .309/.383/.502. With a solid 30/45 BB/K tally over a robust sample of 321 plate appearances. (Note the modest 14% strikeout rate, paired with a nearly .200 isolated slugging percentage.)

    But that’s not even the best part, which is that since May 26 (205 PA’s), the 21-year-old is batting .330/.390/.551 while fanning less than 13% of the time. That’s exactly the kind of thing that future MLB hitting stars do — like, corner outfielders and first basemen who periodically play in Midsummer Classics. And if Winn hits like that, he’s obviously gonna be a big, big star. Because he stopped committing errors when he left A-Ball, and he’s got the range, arm, and baserunning of an MLB starting shortstop right now.

    #228807
    Ratsbuddy
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    I am certainly in favor of shipping DeJong to some poor team for a sack of Idaho potatoes. Then handing the SS job to Winn for the rest of 2023. Hopefully he will earn the SS job for 2024. If he doesn’t quite succeed there is always Edman to fall back on.

    #228810
    blingboy
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    Good plan Rat, but Our Mo can easily thwart it by trading both DeJong and Edman.

    #228826
    bicyclemike
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    Very impressive. I mentioned on another thread that had management kept Walker in AAA as well, mostly to work on his outfield defense, we could very well be in a little better position on the big league club today.

    Nothing drastic, maybe a win or two more with the savings a better outfield defense would have had on our pitching. Then next year would be full of optimism with the two rookies coming up.

    #228834
    gscottar
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    If DeJong is traded before the deadline then it would make sense to bring Winn up to see what he can do. Trading Edman would complicate matters. His defensive versatility is more valuable to us than his offense. Not too many players can play a high level SS and CF. Mookie Betts and Chris Taylor can play those positions but not many can. I think Edman stays.

    #229023
    Gagliano
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    Thanks for that info, Bob. Makes me all the more hopeful for the young man, and for what we all have to look forward to at short.

    #229058
    Brian Walton
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    bikemike said:

    Nothing drastic, maybe a win or two more with the savings a better outfield defense would have had on our pitching. Then next year would be full of optimism with the two rookies coming up.

    I get where you are coming from, but who is to say they would not have also lost one or two more games with a weaker-hitting outfielder playing ahead of Walker? It isn’t like there are good hitting, good defense alternatives sitting on the bench or rotting down in Memphis.

    I think there is still a lot of optimism about Walker – for good reason. He has the most home runs and highest slugging and OPS among Cardinals outfielders this season and is tied for Nootbaar for the OF RBI lead despite having 64 fewer plate appearances. That is why he is playing.

    P.S. Thanks for the Winn facts, Bob Reed…

    #229105
    blingboy
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    It isn’t like there are good hitting, good defense alternatives sitting on the bench

    You might be forgetting about Carlson, who has been on the bench a lot but has still managed to produce positive WAR, unlike Walker. So, by WAR numbers at least, if Carlson had been out there all year instead of Walker we would probably be up a couple wins like bikemike says.

    Oddly, the negative WAR noob who got sent down once has been one of the more stable aspects of our outfield this season to date. He has stayed healthy and on the field. His offense has improved as he went along. He catches it when they hit it somewhere around where he is and he doesn’t throw the ball around. Given how far out of it we are, the negative WAR has not been consequential. Maybe we could have been 10 games out instead of 12, but Walker would still have his break in ahead of him instead of behind.

    #229106
    Brian Walton
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    Bling, I have never seen you hang your hat on WAR before. This is very refreshing to see. Yes, the difference between the two is currently 1.1 fWAR (for the entire season to date). Carlson 0.7, Walker -0.4. There is no way I remember that can look back at WAR at different times during the season, but my recollection is that Walker’s WAR was worse early on.

    Personally, I would still play Walker because of his upside, unless a CF is needed. At this point, Carlson appears to be what he is. But I get why others may feel differently.

    P.S. To the subject of the thread, do you still think they cannot count on Winn in 2024? Looks to me like he is improving, too!

    #229109
    blingboy
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    I think Winn will be here no matter what happens in AAA, much like Liberatore.

    #229245
    Bob Reed
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    With another big game last night (single, triple, tater), Masyn Winn now has the following line for the past two months:

    .335/.395/.572

    That’s across 215 plate appearances and includes just 28 strikeouts. (A modest 13% K ratio.) Or we could go all the way back to April 26 instead of May 26 (331 PAs), and the slash line becomes just slightly less impressive at .313/.387/.517.

    Any way you cut it, he’s hitting the crap out of the ball. And if the big club were just merely muddling through at .500 or so, I’d strongly advocate a promotion for Masyn. (Motter and Fermin make me sad.) But Marmol has led this team to such depths, such viscous irrelevance, nothing matters now except 2024 and beyond. So we may as well keep Winn in AAA and save the option year.

    #229248
    1toughdominican
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    He’s beyond double dumb. He doesn’t even have to say anything anymore. It’s to the point that you can clearly see that trait in the omnipresent features that are etched into the expressions he displays on his face.

    #229250
    gscottar
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    Marmol is likely to be the manager in 2024. Does that mean Winn should stay in Memphis next year too?

    In my opinion the only reason you wouldn’t promote Winn this year would be to hold onto the 40 man roster spot for other additions. Winn could come into spring training next year as an NRI and earn his way onto the roster like Walker did this season.

    #229290
    Brian Walton
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    They certainly don’t need the option year unless you think Winn is going to require three years to stick in MLB after joining the 40-man…

    #229291
    blingboy
    Participant

    You never know when an option year will come in handy. See DeJong.

    #229300
    Brian Walton
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    IMO, worrying about a possibility 3 years from now if there is an opportunity today is being too cautious.

    #229302
    Cardinals27
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    Dejong should be traded, and Winn should be the starter at shortstop for the rest of the year. I’d rather Masyn get his feet wet this year rather than next.

    #229304
    Brian Walton
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    Compared to worrying about maybe not having a Winn option in 2026? Absolutely.

    #229352
    gscottar
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    The 40 man spot would be more of an issue than the option year.

    #229364
    Brian Walton
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    gscottar said:

    The 40 man spot would be more of an issue than the option year.

    Agree 100%, but neither matters enough to worry about when you consider the infielders who hold 40-man spots today. That includes Motter, Fermin and Palacios – all expendable.

    #229378
    Gagliano
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    Who will need to be added to the 40-man in the offseason? The main cost of not bringing up Winn would be whoever that person is who needs to be left off the roster because of Winn. I doubt that’s Motter, Fermin, or Palacios. And I bet we will know a lot more after the trade deadline.

    #229418
    gscottar
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    They might need 40 man spots for future acquisitions.

    #229457
    Brian Walton
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    Paid - Annual

    There can be possible future concerns, but they are less important and almost always have a way of working out over time. In the big picture, if there is playing time opportunity this season, I believe the best thing for the Cardinals over the long haul would be for Winn to get his feet wet with St. Louis in this season that is going nowhere. But as noted, nothing should be done until after the trade deadline changes can be sorted out.

    #229466
    bicyclemike
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    I think that is how it will happen. DeJong will be gone by next week, and Mayan will be our shortstop for a couple of months as we work to put the pieces together for 2024.

    #229467
    blingboy
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    It would make sense to play both Winn and Herrera after the deadline. Into next year, at the least, there will be a need for more than a backup catcher next to Contreras.

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