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Yes. If we carry 2 lefties, we need 2 that look good. Right now, Suárez and Thompson look the most impressive. But since he’s not on the 40-man roster, he’s more of a long shot as he needs to be clearly better than someone who is.
Euro, I agree that last year they didn’t have the depth to cover the injuries to Flaherty, Matz, and VerHagen (if we want to count him). They certainly do have that this year. If that’s the criticism, then that’s fair. But I still think given what they had, they did a fantastic job of working within those confines. Hindsight is always 20/20. It was hard to know that both Matz and Flaherty would miss almost the entire season. And they just didn’t have the depth to cover that.
I also 100% agree with the Hicks as a starter thing. I had forgotten about that but yeah, that never really made sense to me either.
I have mixed feelings on Woodford. He is definitely advancing as they keep playing with his pitch mix to make him more effective. But his ceiling is probably average pitcher (which would be a great outcome if we can get it). I agree that he was certainly an option they could have tried more. But I really feel uneasy about guessing that his results would have been much better than Hicks or Liberatore. But like I said, they’ve been playing with his pitch mix, and now I think there is some potential to get decent results a couple times through an order – so maybe 5 inning starts, which would be better than what we would have likely gotten from him last year. I really hope he can be our #6 starter (or 7 if Hudson does well too) because I think we’re going to really need at least 7.
I guess I’m missing something Euro as it’s not obvious to me! I think they did a great job of managing their rotation and bullpen in 2022 outside of hanging onto TJ McFarland for a month too long. Ollie made a lot of very sensible good moves throughout the season and the front office helped with rotating pieces in and out that were helpful at the right times. Calling up Pallante was a great decision. Getting Packy Naughton for nothing turned into a very good decision. Using Zack Thompson like they did couldn’t have worked out better. Managing Helsley’s and Gino’s innings throughout the season was well executed. And trading for Quintana and far more surprisingly Jordan Montgomery really gave the team a lift. That’s a lot of positives. So where is it obvious that they were bad? They weren’t great in 2021, but I think they did very well last year.
Are Mikolas and Wainwright not the “Fords” you’re referring to? We are happy to have those. And I expect more of them are coming up.
Also note that Wheeler was the 6th pick in 2009. Nola was the 7th pick in 2014. It’s hard to draft that kind of talent when you never pick earlier than 17th because your team is always good. While we want to and are trying to make great pitchers internally, we just aren’t starting with top 10 draft talent to build on like these guys were. So we will do our best with Hence and Hjerpe and Liberatore and Graceffo, but I don’t think anyone is betting that those guys will be as good as Wheeler or Nola.
I don’t think the front office is making that bet at all Blingboy. That’s a crazy bet. Nola and Wheeler have pretty much consistently been top 20 pitchers in baseball for several years. It’s highly, highly unlikely that our in-house guys will be that good and even less likely that we will get 2 of them.
No, what they are betting on is that they can produce average pitchers that might pop above average or better and that they can keep doing that at a very reasonable cost. They don’t want to pay too market prices for something that often breaks. It’s like paying for marble countertops. Sure, they look really nice, but they break really easily. Why not just get a far cheaper solid surface top that lasts longer and does an effective job? Then, you can spend your saved resources investing in something else to enhance your kitchen that doesn’t break so easily. Maybe double ovens or sleek cabinetry. That’s their strategy. I know some fans don’t like that. But those same fans typically don’t like it when we trade away prospects that turn out to be great (Alcantara, Gallen, Arozarena) or we overspend on pitchers that break (Cecil, A Miller). Because who knows what the future holds – Wheeler and Nola may both get hurt for most of this season. It’s not even all that unlikely – especially for one of them. Sure, knowing what we know today, would we have loved to have Nola and Wheeler signed to a contract 5 years ago? Absolutely! But that’s hindsight. And there’s a whole lot of other elite pitchers that we could have said the same about 5 years ago that are now broken.
So that’s the bet. That we can produce pretty good pitchers. And maybe we’ll try to augment that with one elite signing or trade. They started down this path in 2019 with that draft class. And we’ve seen that strategy since. Those guys are just now starting to get close to the MLB with others still 2 years out. So we will just have to see how this bet plays out. We will learn in 2023, 2024, and 2025.
Yeah, I’m not sure all those Catchers are actually coming stateside for the season. They may just be supporting all the pitchers throwing every day. There are a couple of pitchers I expected to come to Jupiter from the DSL and maybe 1-2 other position players. So maybe they’ll come later. And, I certainly expect to see some cuts like every season. Right now they just have to evaluate where everyone is at after the winter.
Thanks LRCardinal. I still expected a couple more. I’m not sure how I missed Mejia!
Motter isn’t exactly a kid bikeMike. He’s either 33 or 34. But he has power and can hit ok so he gives us some depth should the 2 Nolan’s get injured.
Aside from 1 catcher and maybe someone I missed, I don’t see any of last year’s DSL guys on the Spring Training roster. Is this normal? Maybe there are just immigration issues to work out that aren’t done yet. But I assume some of them will be at the Complex or PB this year.
They are both decent minor league signings if we end up with injuries and need the depth. Motter hit 20 home runs at AAA last year and ran an OPS around.900. That would have been our 2nd best hitter at AAA last year. He’s old – like really old for AAA. But for an emergency backup, we could have done a lot worse. Querecuto hits ok and can play pretty much every position (all but Catcher I think). He is basically about the same as Kramer Robertson only even a little more versatile. They can push each other to see who gets more playing time at Memphis and is in line for emergency 5 day call-up guy.
Well, if that’s your thought process, then we should go ahead and give Luken Baker a chance at CF as well just to see if he’s actually good at it. Maybe he’ll surprise us.
Gomez actually has played some CF in the past. But he’s not good as an outfielder. Bad routes. Probably bad reads. And he’s just not all that fast.
I appreciated this article Brian. It does seem that the tactics have changed some. But mostly, they’ve just been grabbing pitchers with any promise wherever and however they could and hoped they could make something of them. I personally had high hopes that the LJay Newsome move would turn out to be brilliant. But alas. He just was recovering for too long.
DC is by no means an exceptional outfielder. He’s pretty much average. TON has a gold glove and very good speed. He could very easily be a better CF. In fact, I was somewhat surprised when he didn’t move there following the Bader trade. Probably just because DC had more recent experience there and we were in the homestretch of the season. But TON could already be a better CF choice defensively. Ultimately,I think this is more about having interchangeable parts than anything. If DC can’t hit right handers again this year, then he can be taken out and TON can be moved to CF (or start the game there to begin with). But there is no universe where Gomez pushes DC out of CF. That’s just silly.
I see what you’re talking about. Yeah, that does seem weird. And it’s all happening over the last few days. My only guess would be that a minor leaguer needs to be assigned to St Louis to play in one of their Spring Training games. But I have no idea what other significance that might be beyond that. It is kind of weird to even list them out.
They are assigned to the St Louis club while on the 40-man roster. But then when the season starts, St Louis can only have 26 players on their “Active Roster” so the others have to be “Optioned” to the minor leagues (if those players still have options available).
This is a tough group. They all feel a bit fringe to me either due to really good but not great performance or limited years. I think Carlton and Renteria are the most deserving, but they both had better careers with other teams so that makes it hard to accept them to our HoF (We did finally get Hernandez there though!). Freese will be the likely choice due to recency, his postseason legend, being homegrown in St Louis, and the fact that St Louis was definitely his best career stop. But overall, his numbers are probably the worst amongst this group. I’m not really sure which to pick! I do kind of agree with Brian, George Hendrick may have been the best choice.
If he’s willing to take $18 million per year for 4 years right now, then I’m in. But I doubt he will do that. $72 million over 4 years is nice security. But if he has a good or great season, then he will make a lot more. Then again, if he is hurt for half of the season or looks mostly mediocre, he’s likely to make less. That’s always the gamble on these extensions. But I’d rather do that contract if I were the Cardinals than extending Mikolas for 3 or more years. 2 years for Mikolas would be good. But he is going to want longer.
I see autocorrect changed Wilking to Wilfredo in my above post!
Who does Rodriguez bump out? Gallegos, Helsley, and Hicks are probably locks. And so are 2 of the lefties (2 of the 4 candidates). So that leaves 3 other pitchers. Stratton and VerHagen are both going to make it if they look at least serviceable in ST due to their contracts. So if Wilking makes it too, then I guess he’s pushing out Pallante and Woodford and Hudson to all head to Memphis as starters. But that will be too many starters at the upper levels blocking other guys. So one of 3 things is going to have to happen:
Scenario 1) We will have injuries. This is always quite likely. This creates opportunities for those 3 I just mentioned.
Scenario 2). One of (or more than one of) VerHagan, Wilking Rodriguez, or Stratton will just look bad and be cut. I think Stratton is the least likely to be cut of the 3 and Rodriguez would be most likely. Rodriguez is easy to cut because he’s the least expensive since he just goes back to the Yankees and they give us $50,000 for him. VerHagan is the most expensive to cut, but I feel that since he was bad last year, if he looks bad again the Cardinals will just lose hope and move on.
Scenario 3) Someone will be traded. We really do have too many pitchers on the 40 man who are all in the “usable but not great” category (yes Packy and JoJo, I’m looking directly at both of you!). Perhaps we find a trade partner who could swap us for a young prospect not on the 40 man with some potential but a long ways out. We’ve seen that kind of trade a few times before.
It’s possible and probably likely that the Brewers thought their offer was already an overpay by $500,000-$750,000. I think that’s usually the way it works in negotiations- both sides end up at a number they aren’t thrilled with but can live with. But sometimes the sides are just further apart. The Brewers may feel Burnes was asking for a $1.5 million overpay according to market and they were only willing to part with half that. I’m sure they don’t want hard feelings with their ace. But they also don’t want to unnecessarily drive up the cost of salaries because they are running a business. I believe the arbitration process is the fairest way to do this. I don’t feel sorry for either players or owners that “lose”. It’s a system that works pretty well.
I can live with the pitch clock, I like the extra innings rule, and I’m on board with the larger bases. But I hate the no shifts rule. To me, you get 9 defenders and other than the pitcher (and arguably the catcher) you should be able to start them wherever you want. If you want 7 guys standing in the right field foul territory because you’re sure that’s where the ball is about to be hit, then you should be able to do that (no matter how stupid that strategy may be). The only reason there is a standard defensive alignment is because that spaces guys out to the average places balls are generally hit – so it became tradition. Hitters just need to hit the ball where the defense isn’t. That’s the game. It’s the equivalent of forcing a football or basketball team to only be able to play zone defense. I hate it.
I’ve never seen Zuniga and know so little about him, but you’re right, he probably belongs here.
I hope you’re right about Bedell having a big year. And Hudson too, but I feel like Hudson’s absolute best would be average MLB pitcher (which is really good! Just not super exciting).
While I liked Blake’s final 6 far better than Brian’s final 6, I think I’d prefer Linarez’s potential to McKeithan. But in all likelihood, neither survive in St. Louis with the 4 more elite catching prospects ahead of them (Herrera, Pages, Bernal, and Crooks) and Contreras around for 5 more years.
Just for fun Blingboy, who would your final 5 plus one prospect who you think will be a surprise who is not in the top 55? Here are mine:
Logan Sawyer
Osvaldo Tovalin
Wilfredo Pereira
Chris Rotondo
Alfredo RuizAnd my surprise mover is Rancel Rincon. I am thinking he is moving well up this list over the next 2 seasons.
I’m least confident about Rotondo here and almost went LJ Jones, which would have made mine pretty close to the same as Blake. But I just don’t see a path for Jones to the Cardinals MLB level unless he just hits a ton and we’ve only seen him do that in shorter stints. Still, it’s a toss-up. I also like Trogic-Iverson in there too.
How about you?
I forgot about Kodi Whitley still being prospect eligible. I like Blake’s final 6 prospects quite a bit (except McKeithan really- he seems like organizational depth with maybe a hair of upside to be more).
I could see Whitley was broken last year but I didn’t know why so I just assumed injury. But the tweaks that Blake explains are helpful. I’m definitely pulling for him. It’s not often that a 27th round guy can make a major league impact.
I love that our bullpen has so many high upside potential guys this year. The depth is unbelievable. When you have 25 strong potentials competing, surely some of those will catch fire and be good. And with guys like Loutos and Sawyer and Zuniga and Whitley just behind all those on the 40 man who are competing, that just adds all that much more depth. There’s actually even more behind them as we get further into the season with Paniagua, Graceffo, Hjerpe, Ralston, and Granillo and maybe just maybe Hence by end of year.
While that is a good amount for a single year, I was expecting him to be holding out for a 3 year deal in the 15-20 million range. It seems like we could have met this ask and still had plenty in reserve for a future starter trade. Maybe the Cards see his skills diminishing or maybe they just want the roster flexibility of all the guys they have with options?
