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This winter the org was looking at 12 arbitration eligible players, but they whittled the number down to 11, by extending Gallegos through his arb seasons, and a club option on one FA season.
Of the 11 remaining, I expect Chris Stratton to be non-tendered. He was included in the Quintana acquisition. He received a 1.6mil raise as a arb2 and the same raise would ballpark him at 4.3mil for 2023, as an arb3. That’s a sizable salary for a player who was a healthy exclusion from the postseason roster.
The 10 players remaining are; Montgomery, Flaherty, O’Neill, Reyes, Hudson, Hicks, Edman, Helsley, Cabrera and Knizner.
This is the largest class of arb players that I can remember. Possibly a couple are included in trades? Do you see another non-tendered candidate?
It has not been announced whether StL will have any players qualifying for super2 arb pay, but I don’t see anyone on the bubble.
Of these 10 players, it wouldn’t surprise me if they accounted for 40mil of the 2023 team budget.
That is a lot of players.
Flaherty should be lucky to keep the salary he’s making.
Relief pitching is so up and down year to year that I hope they don’t overpay Helsley as his era could easily be over 4 next year. You just never know. Look at what he did in 2021.
Because their pay is based on their career up to that point, a career year does get watered down by previous seasons.
An example would be O’Neill’s 2021 where he was MVP-8 in the NL. That following winter he drew a 3.4mil arb1 contract for 2022, because his previous seasons were much less in value.
Now if you are Juan Soto and put up those numbers nearly every season you get a 8.5mil arb1 contract.
A career year can increase a players raise, but his career value will dominate his pay.
Reyes drew 2.85mil this season as an arb2. After missing the entire season his salary remaining stagnant to 3mil should be ballpark.
Looking forward to your annual payroll thread. I about have these arb players estimates finished for 2023, if you decide to use them.
With Yadi retiring, they pretty much have to keep Knizner, as strange as that sounds.
If Waino retires, it will be interesting to see how they manage the starting rotation. It will put a lot of pressure on Mo to extend a couple of those Abe eligible starters.Reyes drew 2.85mil this season as an arb2. After missing the entire season his salary remaining stagnant to 3mil should be ballpark.
Looking forward to your annual payroll thread. I about have these arb players estimates finished for 2023, if you decide to use them.
Reyes won’t break the bank. The question would be will they be paying him $3M to pitch or to sit on the IL?
Thanks for keeping up with the arb class. This is indeed a large class. We currently have payroll obligations for 2023 at around $88M, and that is before arbitration and the minimum salary players. I would expect our total payroll to be around $170M but you never can tell. We were close to $160M this year so the Cardinals may just keep it flat.
Even if Adam returns, he just adds to the 2024 FA-to-be starters. Montgomery, Flaherty, Mikolas, Reyes and Hicks.
Surely Montgomery tops that list as an extension candidate, but that close to free agency, the players could choose to test the market.
They aren’t going to pay guys to sit in Memphis, whether for performance or because they can’t stay healthy.
Cabrera and Reyes probably.
Hudson, Hicks and Flaherty have all been unreliable as well. Replacements would have to be found, but replacements had to be found for them this year, so that would hardly be a sticking point.
Reyes now hás 5+ years service time. Unlikely he sees Memphis next year except on a Max 30 day rehab stint.
That is why I think Reyes is on the bubble. Do they really offer him $3M with his track record with health?
Why wouldn’t you offer the former #1 prospect in baseball who has been nothing but excellent when healthy a paltry salary like that? We paid a ton more than that for dead weight this year. Stratton should and will go before Reyes.
Because he is rarely ever healthy. His pedigree doesn’t mean anything while he is sitting on the IL.
And if they didn’t want Stratton they shouldn’t have traded for him.
Because he is rarely ever healthy. His pedigree doesn’t mean anything while he is sitting on the IL.
There is simply no way you risk it unless you know he can’t pitch next year at all. I have no idea about his health, but $3M is pocket change for the ceiling. You’d better believe the Dodgers would find room for him in their pen for that pittance.
As for Stratton, they needed a reliever for the stretch and that’s what they got. He’s a replacement level guy and whether they traded for him or not, he’s not exactly going to be a hot commodity on the market.
I am not saying the Cardinals will non tender Reyes. That is really not their style. I am saying there is a case to be made for him to be on the bubble.
“He has been nothing but excellent when healthy.” If memory serves he has been healthy enough to stay on the field only one season in his career. He was good the first half of that season. Not so much the second half. I wouldn’t classify it as excellent.
There has been zero information on him since he left the team in May. I have no reason to believe he will be healthy next year. If he is then great let’s bring him back. But if he isn’t then there is only so much money to spend on a bullpen. This is the frugal Cardinals we are talking about. We already have $3M obligated to VerHagen and his 5.00 ERA.
StL did non-tendered Brebbia due to him not being available until midseason. I haven’t heard anything on Reyes availability.
If we could get a half season of effective closer stuff out of Reyes, that would be worth 3mil imo.
If we could get a half season of effective closer stuff out of Reyes, that would be worth 3mil imo.
I agree but that is a big if.
If I were Bill DeWitt I would be asking Mo how many players are we willing to pay to not help us win games?
We owe DeJong $9.1M next year and will most likely have to pay almost all of that for him to play elsewhere or to sit on our bench.
We owe VerHagen $3M and there is a good likelihood he will be on the IL, completely ineffective, or DFA’d.
If we pay Reyes $3M I think there is a high likelihood, based on history, he spends most of they year on the IL or is ineffective.
So that is potentially $15M of sunk costs right off the bat, not counting someone like Stratton. In the overall grand scheme of things that shouldn’t prevent the Cardinals from putting together a competitive team, but it seems an inefficient way to run a business. As I have been told many times the Cardinals are not the Dodgers, who can just spend as they wish with no consequences, therefore, I think each individual arbitration case requires a certain amount of scrutiny instead of a rubber stamp.
Cardinals (11)
Jordan Montgomery (5.153): $10.1MM
Chris Stratton (5.100): $3.5MM
Alex Reyes (5.056): $2.85MM
Jack Flaherty (5.006): $5.1MM
Jordan Hicks (5.000): $1.6MM
Dakota Hudson (4.062): $2.7MM
Tyler O’Neill (4.059): $5.1MM
Tommy Edman (3.114): $4.3MM
Ryan Helsley (3.105): $2.4MM
Andrew Knizner (3.021): $1MM
Genesis Cabrera (3.011): $1.2MMCould see Reyes non tender, maybe Stratton too, but I’d keep him. Hudson and Cabrera probably traded. And I’m sure they won’t but I’d trade O’Neill.
At those rates, I think all of those deals get made except maybe Stratton and Reyes. Now maybe some get traded afterwards, but to me those are all bargain amounts for what you’re getting vs free agency. Stratton is maybe just slightly north or right at what we might get him in free agency so he probably just gets picked up at but I could see it not happening too. For Reyes, it just all depends on what the team thinks his health is. Rosenthal was in the same position once and we let him go. I think it may be the same for Reyes if the team doesn’t see him contributing for a good portion of the year.
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