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Karim at Cardinals Prospects published his Top 30 today. Differences of 5 or more spots from our list:
Dos Santos – 19 vs 13(us)
Ragsdale – 7 vs 19 (us)
M Hernandez – 27 vs 16 (us)
Clarke – 8 vs 21 (us)
Padilla – 22 vs 14 (us)
Luna – Not Rated vs 24 (us)Others who we haven’t rated yet:
20 – Eagan
21 – Odle
24 – Gurevitch
26 – Cho
28 – Ferraro
29 – Ortiz
30 – LedbetterI have a lot of respect for Karim. He genuinely knows his stuff. I think he tends to semi-ignore health concerns and just rate by statistical data though. Just food for thought as we get through out next few rounds.
Pugs – I think you should be good with any of the names being thrown around right now. I have all of them as my next picks after Manicalco/Gurevitch. Odle is next for me personally, but they are all in the same tier. Clarke was the only vote I was frustrated by. He’s going to likely need at least 2 full seasons of innings to hone in his craft to be prepared for throwing his pitches consistently for strikes at the MLB level. What are the odds he stays healthy to do that? It could take him 5-7 more seasons to get that many innings given his health record. At that point he’s Riley O’Brien in his 30’s starting his career and he’s moved on to a new team several times. And that’s to make it as a reliever. The odds of him becoming a starter in the MLB happen to be identical to Blutarsky’s GPA.
23. Maniscalco
24. GurevitchI had Padilla at 25 and Clarke at 32. I actually thought I was being generous and giving Clarke the benefit of the doubt and putting him higher than I wanted to at 32. I think we will regret that one.
I think Walker still had all the same power. And he still had decent bat-to-ball skills. His issue is pitch recognition. He seems to be always guessing. He will often take a first pitch straight fastball down the middle and then swing 2nd pitch at a slider moving off the plate (or vice versa). This seems to cause him to get into funks where he’s second guessing himself which leads to worse results. When he’s confident because he’s been doing well lately, he still has the same issue, but his swings are more consistent because he isn’t second guessing everything he does.
The underlying problem is pitch recognition. The secondary problem that can result from the first is lack of confidence. We saw him overcome the secondary issue in various stretches throughout the season and then inevitably fall back down at some point.
What Booyah has here is most likely, although 2 and 5 probably will be switched.
My hope is they find a better stopgap solution at 3B. Otherwise, it may be another punted season. CF is also problematic, but I’m ok trading defense for offense there.
I have Eagan coming up very soon as well Bling. Of all the people, I’m most surprised that you would vote Clarke. There is closer upside with him. We’ll see if he can stay healthy enough and improve his control enough to get there.
I understand Luna as a pick here. I’m sticking with Manicalco, but the same arguments could be made for choosing Luna. I don’t understand why we would choose Brandon Clarke as anything before 30 given our prospect depth. Here’s my reasoning. Clarke will be 24 at the start of next season. That is starting to be older by Minor League standards. Clarke has just 4 innings pitched at AA or above – at 24 mind you. In total, Clarke has thrown 67 professional innings in his career. His walk rate is nearly 6 per nine. Pitchers need innings pitched to hone in their control. Clarke can’t pitch innings because he keeps getting hurt. At this point, there’s probably zero chance he stays a starting pitcher. Therefore, you’re picking a lefty reliever with a high walk rate and an immense history of injuries who will be 24 next season with 4 innings pitched at AA or above as one of our top prospects? There’s just way too much talent right now for me to consider Clarke this soon.
21. Manicalco
22. GurevitchI feel like this one was completely choreographed when Cerfolio dropped out of the GM consideration elsewhere and Flores left. That meant Cerfolio got offered the GM job with St Louis and Flores didn’t.
Right on track for my own list so far except we elected Frias just a touch early. However, I think here’s where I will probably divide from the group, especially with my #20 choice.
Maniscalco was one of the youngest players ever drafted in draft history. At just over 17 years old at the time of the draft, that gives the Cardinals a lot of work time to develop him into an elite prospect and then get to the MLB well before his age may start working against him. He’s considered to be excellent on defense with no question marks about being able to stay at SS. He’s also a switch hitter, albeit much better from the left side. The question is the hit tool with scouts being a bit all over the place on projections there. Some glowing. Some completely opposite.
My other choice is going to be Jack Gurevitch. I said last year when we were doing our list that he had a great shot at being the best hitter in the organization for the upcoming season. He wasn’t. That honor goes to Raniel Rodriguez. But Gurevitch is easily top 5. I believe he’s the first Cardinal Minor League player to ever hit 30 or more homers in his inaugural full season. Jack started his season in Low A, got promoted to High A, and then got promoted again to AA. Very few guys in the system got 2 promotions. Besides his 32 homers, he also hit 26 doubles and a triple and collected a pretty astounding 96 RBI. He got on base at a .360 clip. He also slugged just over .900, just a tiny bit behind Jesus Baez who we talk about all the time. He does only play 1B or 3B. He’s pretty good at 1B and so-so at 3B. He moves fairly well and might be able to make it at the hot corner with a couple more seasons of work. The real knock on Jack is he struck out a lot. 169 times in 480 at bats. However, I get the impression watching him that he knows more about what he’s doing in the zone than the average high strikeout guy so I’m a bit less worried about this than I was for Gorman or Josh Baez (at least the old Josh Baez). I think Jack is going to grow into a long-term difference maker and I hope that comes with the Cardinals.
19. Maniscalco
20. GurevitchThe Tink Hence saga is over. We should have traded him 3 years ago.
Zack Thompson and Sem Robberse are also both 2 high end pitching prospects we hoped would get there. But as they say, TINSTAAPP (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect).
Darlin Saladin and Gerardo Salas were also both top 50 guys, although they were lower in the rankings.
I had wondered about Davila who was on your list vs mine. I assumed he would be a Minor League Free Agent. I was also thinking the same with Clemente, but they resigned him so Rule 5 applies.
I just saw where Davila is now officially a free agent so he’s out of the picture.
Good article. I think it’s close between Davis, Ledbetter, and Cho. I lean slightly toward Davis because at a minimum, he at least provides excellent defense, which can’t be said for the other two. But I do like Ledbetter’s bat.
Baez is a must add. Odle is the kind of guy teams may take a chance on so I 100% agree on those two.
I don’t think they add more than 3. There just isn’t roster room if they want to sign some free agents.
I’m surprised everyone has about the same fellas here. Only 5 different players so far: a late first round pick and 3 guys who had incredible breakout seasons plus one vote for a really young stud who didn’t play much. I guess it’s good we have some consensus. Probably means we’re on the right track.
Roster stands at 38 after today’s moves.
Fermin, Pereira, Bruihl, and Soriano are the 4 more marginal players without options (even Gorman has an option year left) so to some extent, these 4 handcuff the team a bit.
Fermin had a solid season. He’s versatile and came through quite a bit in key situations. But, Torres and Saggese make him a bit redundant. We also have Jesus Baez getting close and Prieto is still available for emergencies (or Mendoza if we needed to add someone). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded for a low level Minor Leaguer.
Pereira was really good in limited time and is still fairly young. He can play CF. The question is whether he can hit well enough to deserve a bench role. I think they bring him to Spring Training to see his skillset and make a decision by the end of Spring. Most likely, we don’t really need one of Pereira or Scott given that Chase Davis is also in Memphis.
Bruihl was reliably average out of the pen from the left side. Unless they want to sign someone else, they might as well keep him until at least Santana is ready to usurp him.
Soriano seemed to have stretches where he was excellent and then go out and throw a complete clunker. He might have been overused a bit. He probably returns unless he doesn’t look great in ST. However, I’d love to see him replaced by a Veteran BP signing. I’d love a more reliable back-end reliever.
I always thought Ixan would end up as a lefty reliever. These injuries have even more cemented that likelihood. He was on a trajectory to potentially make it as a starter though with his numbers last season.
17. Kuhns
18. MolinaI understand the sentiment on Santana. However, Kuhns could throw 300 innings across a couple seasons. Same with Molina. It might take Santana 5 or 6 seasons to get there. Short relievers have value, but it’s hard to compare to a starter with similar pitching weapons. I do have Santana coming up at 22 though. He has been utterly dominant especially as of late, which is good because the Cards BP needs left handed help. He should be up there soon.
The releasing team would owe the full contract amount. However, if another team picks that player up as a free agent, that new team would pay the prorated minimum salary amount remaining for the year. This would ever so slightly lessen the burden on the team that originally released the player.
Yes he will. Strong potential to not offer Gorman a contract. May be 2-3 others DFA (possibly Pereira, Prieto, Bruihl, Fernandez, Svanson, Scott, or the new pitcher we just picked up). Those are all back of roster filler guys who could be replaced with an upgrade.
For now, I’d do more revenue sharing and institute a floor of around $130 million and see where that leads you. Give teams until 2028 to get to the floor since they won’t get that revenue sharing until well into 2027. Keep the CBT. Maybe even strengthen the top line penalty a little. All these seem like sensible solutions towards a bit more parity, which I think would be better for baseball.
They can protect 38 on the “AAA” roster. Since 40-man players are already protected and I’ll assume Baez, Odle, and Davis get added to the 40-man for the purposes of this exercise, here’s how the “AAA” roster might look for the Rule 5 draft:
Cho, Levenson, Clemente, Hansen, Linn, Richardson, Ledbetter, Henderson, S Hernandez, Tarlow, Paige, Mendlinger, Harris, Moore, Encarnacion, Mejia, Suarez, Honeyman, Pino, Pena, Cornwell, Sequera, Moran, Love, Hales, Murphy, Worley, King, Ynfante, Menes, Batista
That’s only 31. Even if they don’t add Odle and Davis to the 40-Man, they could add them here and get us to 33. Everyone else is either protected by the 40-man, a minor league free agent, or not eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft. Therefore, zero worries with the Minor League phase.
I still believe there will be no Rule 5 draft, which benefits St Louis. If they do have it, Jesus Baez is the only sure add. The Cardinals have 6 or 7 guys that in theory could be added or taken if not, but I’m not sure any is super risky. I’d be the most worried about Odle even though he’s still a ways off. He has a fastball and could be hidden in a reliever role.
If there’s a draft:
Add: Jesus Baez
Strongly Consider: Odle, Cho, Chase Davis
Consider: Levenson, Clemente, Hansen, Linn, Richardson, Ledbetter, Henderson, Sammy Hernandez
Assuming a draft, I could see the Cardinals protecting just one (Baez) or up to 4 players.
