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Nah . . . Not me. I just bet that McGreevey would come out wearing number 36 tonight. And sure enough, I was right.
This one was an easy pick. It’s refreshing to not have to include guys with a .800 OPS for the month as a lower standard. Lots of great hitters are materializing.
Brian, I agree that they are highly unlikely to add 3 good free agents – at least on long-term deals. That would go contrary to what they have been trying to do. However, their entire team salary (even accounting for the $13 million they still will pay Arenado and Contreras) looks to be about $75-80 million. That’s getting crazy low. I could easily see them signing 2-3 recovery contracts like May on 1-year deals which help as stop-gaps for key holes while we wait on development. Then it just becomes a matter of whether those players perform or not.
While that statement is certainly true CiF, in this case the actions of the team (and stated actions) make sense given that they weren’t going to win almost no matter what – at least not without diving fully into free agency and not spending that money on player development. This long-term approach looks to be the much wiser decision. That sacrifices 2026 for certain. I think 2027 is also probably a casualty, but there’s a chance that the injection of newly developed prospect blood into the Majors towards the middle to end of the season immediately bares fruit and the team makes the playoffs. Then, who knows what can happen? Hopefully we get to experience some of that exhilaration.
I kind of liked having a shot every year so this giving up a season thing hasn’t always set well. However, I see the logic and I’m happy to see that their plan, for the most part, actually looks like it’s making progress on the stated goals. Had they not made much progress, it would have been gravely disappointing.
I will also point out that they have put themselves in a position where if they were so inclined, they could sign 3 impactful free agents (SP, CF, 3B) and try to go for it in 2027. I doubt they do that, but it is at least now an option on the table.
With Dohm coming back from injury, I’m changing up my projection for the AFL:
Starter: Dohm
Relievers: Clemente, Worley, Findlay (swapping Worley who I mentioned above in for Joe King)
Everyday Position Player: Deniel Ortiz
Other Position Players: Campos, Yordelin Pena, and Jalin Flores
None of these guys are true top prospects, which follows the trend recently. Ortiz would be the most intriguing to watch as he is an upper level prospect.
Dohm has dealt with some injuries and this gives him a chance to re-write some of the narrative for this season. Ortiz missed time earlier in the year so this extends him out closer to a full season. Worley missed a lot of time the first couple seasons after being drafted and has become good out of the pen lately – good enough to see how he continues. I believe Clemente would both be a free agent and Rule 5 guy so this continues a window to view him before making a decision. Findlay is maybe our best developing lefty reliever option (if you don’t count our starters) so it will be good to keep giving him opportunities. Campos – just because we probably need to send a catcher and he’s done well so far in his Cards career. I don’t feel as strongly about Pena or Flores, but both are mid-tier prospects who fit the timeline for competing in the AFL.
For example, in 2019, the Cardinals took Zack Thompson. That looks like a pretty clear miss vs Seattle taking George Kirby with the next pick. In fairness though, the next 10 picks after Kirby haven’t done much more than Thompson did for us. The good teams often miss too. The Dodgers took Kody Hoese, the Rays took Greg Jones, and the Brewers took Ethan Small – all first rounders.
There are lots of variables here that make this extra difficult. Sometimes one team’s development staff is really good at unlocking a certain type of player vs another team. You also may draft a guy that could have been great but he gets a longer-term fluke injury (e.g. getting hit by a pitch that breaks his hammate bone or running into Jordan Walker going after a fly ball). Plus, sometimes a guy isn’t taken due to character issues. Maybe he individually becomes very good, but it can be at the expense of others around him. And finally, sometimes a guy is taken because he fits the budget better to allow for a bigger pick elsewhere in the draft. Just lots of variables to consider.
I do think there can be clear-cut obvious misses when you look back at a draft 7-10 years later, but there will also be some gray areas where it isn’t so easy as just comparing one player drafted in the same round to another.
CC – Adding Bernal has no impact on the lockout because he is already on the 40-man roster as of the end of the ‘25 season when they added him to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. It doesn’t really impact Rincon either – at least from the Cardinals standpoint – because he would have become a Minor League free agent at end of season and likely left the team.
I’m glad Rincon gets a shot. I’ve been watching him for what seems like eons.
I wonder if Pages or Crooks gets demoted when Bernal comes up. My guess is that Herrera has caught his last game – at least this season.
I’m with you on this one Bling. Baez, while a very average outfielder, has been an outfielder his whole career. Most of Fermin’s outfield experience has been this season. So it’s weird that he would be a defensive upgrade to Baez.
Right on cue with my post about Springfield before the game started, it’s now 7-0 Springfield after 2 innings. And 2 of their big bats are on the pine tonight.
Matthews looks far more comfortable tonight. It looks like he’s trying less hard to be perfect. I think those last 2 innings he had to pitch in his last outing where the pen was short and he was nearing 100 pitches helped him realize he can just pitch rather than be perfect.
5 years ago we’d have been discussing guys like Brayden Smith or or Brandt Thompson as top 20 prospects. We would be hoping and praying they may one day make an impact. Now they aren’t even top 50 (or maybe are fringe top 50) due to all the acquisitions of talent. We’ve had a few high end guys come through (Winn, Walker, Burleson, Gorman, etc) but we didn’t have much depth behind it and certainly lacked exciting starting pitching.
Now, watching this Springfield team dominate its competition most nights because of all the talent amassed on that team gives a lot of hope that the future should get better. That lineup contains Raniel Rodriguez, Jesus Baez, Tai Peete, Jack Gurevitch, Deniel Ortiz, Won bin Cho, Josiah Ragsdale, and Tre Richardson. It’s the AA version of Murderers Row. And if that’s not bad enough for opponents, they have to hit against Doyle, Eagan, Franklin or if they are lucky enough, only a quality starter like Aita or Brayden Davis. It’s a fun group that will likely all be in Memphis next year.
It was nice to see Winquest added. I think the team waits until the offseason to add any more of these bubble guys other than potentially Rincon. They will want to see if a Rule 5 draft is going to happen. If not, they all stay off the roster so they can play next season if there’s a lockout. With Rincon, if they plan to add him, I would suspect that is done in September or he will not be added at all. I hope he is added. I’ve been a fan of Rincon for 5 or6 years now – back when he was a fringe or non prospect. He’s always been fun to watch and I noticed he kept making incremental improvements nearly every month along his prospect path.
I’m not sure what Pages availability is tonight. He’s thrown a lot of pitches lately. But hopefully he has enough in the tank to go two if Ollie needs it.
I agree with Willie. I have no issue. If it creates a little excitement, then great. It’s still the same team in the same organization.
Thanks for the pointers Brian.
Ok. I’m sticking with Clemente just because of the weird situation he is in. But you’re right – repeaters are uncommon. I’ll stick with Joe King as well. I’ll move off Holiday given his low inning total in the Minors. So two more with one needing to be a starter . . .
Findlay and Worley are both good reliever choices. Maybe one goes in place of Clemente but since I stuck with Clemente, I’ll go with Findlay over Worley. Starter is tricky. I’d choose Dohm but he’s injured. Hjerpe or Roby could both use extended innings but both are beyond AFL level at this point. Roby does probably make the most sense though looking through the list. I’ll go with him for lack of better options.
I landed on: Roby, Clemente, King, Findlay, Ortiz, Campos, Pena, and Flores. Odds are I get one right! Maybe.
Randal Clemente is the first name that comes to mind as a good candidate.
Joe King and Brian Holiday make sense to round out the pitchers.
Deniel Ortiz as the everyday player. One of Ryan Campos or Sammy Hernandez makes sense. Then maybe Yordalin Peña and Jalin Flores.
Ok. Those are my prognostications.
I don’t believe he is GScottar. He might be able to fake it through his younger 20’s. I believe he would have to make some changes though. Of course Pablo Sandoval survived as a good third baseman so there are exceptions.
My guess is he stays at catcher with some 1B and a bunch of DH.
You’re both right. Ortiz is a possibility (along with Gurevitch). But Ortiz has been a relatively poor defender. I haven’t watched much of him this season given how late he came back from injury to have any real thoughts on whether defense has improved. Any of you?
