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agreed about Carp Piscotty and Grichuk… but in fairness to them, arent you supposed to invest in those guys…arent you supposed to give them a chance to succeed? Carp looked and still looks like a guy that should be able to hit in the middle of the order (his shoulder woes complicating it further)…Piscotty’s play until this year had been great and totally project-able…and still might be (no discounting his mothers illness and a sophomore slump that happens to plenty of players)…. now Grichuk…i think depending on him was probably a mistake, but his cheapness and skills made it hard not to think he coudl figure it out…though i think his chance was lost LAST year…and i think they depended too much on him last year not really this year…which is why Fowler was signed…
i would say for 2017 they depended too much on DIaz and PEralta especially…Diaz for good reason..and PEralta i think the contract was making the decision (Justin Turner at 3b woudl have looked awful good all year and probably would have been that middle order gusy we were missing)
add in depending on Broxton (a mistake but a small one as he had been volatile for a while) Siegrest …no reason to think he couldnt get it back..and especially Oh…again no reason not to think he woudlnt be at least close to heis old self from last year…
so all in all we just really banked too much on lots of things and almost all of them didnt work out…but most of those chances were justified
we got bailed out by a lot of guys that we werent depending on:
Dejong…saved our butts by helping at SS…if he wasnt ready defensively we would have been much worse
Wong (turning it around..i believe everyone had written him off)
Pham (helped Grichuk and Piscotty issues)
JMart (helped outfield and dealing with 1b and Peralta allowing Carp to move over to help fill the hole)
Rosy (turned it back on…but no one was depending on him)
Brebbia (helped with Broxton issues)
Duke (like adding a veteran for the stretch but not depending on him at all)
Weaver (filling in for Waino and then Leake but we werent depending on him to win games yet)
Gyorko (super utlitity saved us with early power and all yar stellar defense at 3b)depending on these guys wasnt a mistake, no reason to think they would be bad
Piscotty
Diaz
Oh
Kevin
Carp (bad is relative)
Fowler (again relative)depending on these guys should probably have been better prepared for:
Peralta
Grichuk
Brox
I am throwing in Diaz here TOO because we didnt bring in a backup SS in the offseason just in case, even a defensive minded one, when we had nothing between Diaz and Dejong…and as high as the Cardinals were on DeJong…there is no way they thought he was ready to be a full time MLB SS in 2017 going into the yearHowever, solving for Grichuk and Peralta Broxton and a backup SS would not necessarily have made the team from the beginning better
we had internal solutions for each of them (except SS IMO)…however those internal solutions had they been the only thing we needed would have been easily overcome
but then you throw in all the other issues and underperforming and all those internal solutions got stretched, and it is pretty remarkable and impressive how close we really came to making the playoffs with so many issues…
to me it comes down to two things we didnt do last offseason…that we should have known better than to not address
a middle of the order bat….3b (Turner or trade for Donaldson or another good 3bman)
a backup SS (preferably one who coudl play outfield too…i suggested Chris Owings all offseason but was shot down as that being dumb because Greg Garcia was a better option)had we unfortunately had to cut loose Peralta and trade Greg Garcia or Adams to bring in a couple of quality players that fit better IMO…i believe we woudl be in the playoffs right now even despite the other issues we had…and YES both Turner and OWings got hurt this year, but that isnt the point…the individual players werent the point…
the point is that there were things last offseason that there was no reason not to fix that we did not…and there were things that didnt work out this year that were going to happen… we just hit WAY too many of those things going against us than coudl have been expected…our good depth in the system bailed out most of those problems but it left us in a pinch for a few of the things we ended up really not having and ended up needing
had we had the closer issues with Oh etc…and we were looking for JUST a backend closer or good reliever at the trade deadline we woudl have done that …but by the time that came we had so many problems and holes that fixing one in the middle of the year just wasnt going to be enough….which was a mistake as it ends up all we needed was about 5 more wins to get in the playoffs…something that could have been addressed at the deadline… Jay Bruce or JD MArtinez (both came crazy cheap)…Madson or Nicasio (cheap) would have been about all we needed…throw in a big trade for Sonny Gray or Quintana and we’d be watching playoff games right now
they gambled in the offseason on things that they shoudlnt have and it didnt pan out…then they gambled during the year that the season was lost and that no help from trades woudl have helped fix this year…another mistake…
but make no mistake….we faced a crazy amount of adversity this year and regression from positions we had no reason to not trust in…we just ended up having TOO much of it…and while the guys that stepped up filled almost all the holes, we were still left wanting on a few that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs
good question Sooner..i have been thinking the same thing…all i have heard is that he Memphis pitching coach will definitely be in the mix
i have never liked Ortiz…from day one IMO he writes to get clicks and whatever the hot topic is…even if it is at the expense of the team and IMO his credibility…
that article calling Fowler out can only be read negatively on him as well as the Cardinals…regardless of its validity….Ortiz is preying on the unhappiness of the Cardinals fans now who are angry and displeased with the outcome of this season…
seems like that whole article could have been written (and might have been) months ago after that team dinner…but he couldnt publish it when the fans were still optimistic…now that that is over he just fans the flames and throws whomever he can under the bus to get some clicks
even if Pham regresses a little he still had a GREAT year (compared to other top outfielders)…so even a little less than GREAT is still pretty darned good…and if we can get that we should be happy…
a total collapse of his ability is pretty ridiculous to assume…1 yr wonders happen, but how many teams bank on them being terrible the next year? none…you just cant…you can try to give yourself some backup options just in case (which has Tyle ONeills name written all over it..maybe Adolis or Bader or Sierra or whomever is left after the trades)
and if it is so obvious that he is going to regress WHY would anyone else give top value for him? You dont think they can see he has injury past and vision problems and has had one really good year and is older?
his value will be no higher on any other team than it is here, as any attempt we have at putting him out there shows our doubt on his ability and thus lowers his trade value immensely… now if someone came to us with a big offer for him, that is different but that is impossible to predict
to me maximizing Pham’s value has him starting every day and shoudl we be terrible, using his good year to move him at the deadline…if we have a good year …we ride him until he needs repalcing…and he has yet to show he needs replacing
makes sense BRian….though if you saw a rise in viewership on mlb.tv for Cardinals games i’d be less concerned for an overall drop in local tv ratings…as long as butts in seats were still holding steady
also i woudl say one thing i have learned from younger people is how much they watch things on their computers and tablets for “free” where they share streams (probably illegal) through links on the internet…somethign i have always known existed…but in my personal experience in the past was low quality and always had the threat of viruses etc…
for example…i wanted to watch the Colts game on Sunday night and didnt have local TV to watch it on NBC…i thought…let’s see if i can find a stream….low and behold i found a reddit page with at least 20 different streams…for giggles i tried one and it was HD quality, fast and i mirrored it to my TV screen and watched for abit…no logins no pop ups nothing…just straight to a private youtube page and i was watching it
i felt guilty though and stopped…but i believe younger people dont feel that guilt as much as i do…which might lead to local viewing being higher due to internet subterfuge and sharing of streams…
is this big enough to affect ratings? I dont know…but i woudl say that it woudl be rather foolish and typical of us old farts to believe that watching games or TV in general is the same as it used to be or even was 5 yrs ago…
having said that…what UConn says is also telling…and not to be taken lightly…i watch every game whether or not the product is the best…but others do not…she isnt alone…
id like to see him stick with a more consistent lineup…these past two years may be outliers with all the injuries in 2016 and the poor early performance of several players this year… but id prefer to see him stay with a lineup not just a few guys IN a lineup at specific spots in that lineup but the whole thing…maybe 5 days a week the same lineup, less mixing and matching…you can only develop guys that are consider “go to” guys by actually going to them and developing them into that type of player…i think the way we saw MM put DeJong in the 3 spot and let him figure out how to do that was very ballsy…and it worked DeJong flourished…even Fowler in arun scoring spot was good…JMArt too…
IMO you use ST for this…you work out the guys in spots and really test them there…then you go with that lineup for a majority of the week…
id also like to see a more warming up multiple guys in the pen for end of game situations…have a guy you are going to go to but also have his handcuff warming up too…out side of maybe the designated closer…always be able to pull a guy if he isnt working right away..we cant afford to use a guy for 5 hitters if after the first two we can tell the guy doesnt have it and THEN warm up someone else…
first
there is a lot more but those two jump to my mindDoes anyone think Stanton won’t opt out after 2020…unless he gets really hurt, i cant see why he wouldn’t want to cash in as long as he is playing well…he will only be 30 right? we shouldn’t really be expecting a big drop off in production without injuries…
sure…he’d a have around 225 million left on the contract shoudl he opt out… coudl he get a big enough contract to opt out? I dunno…but the way salaries are trending up and if he keeps hitting HRs liek he is…perhaps he coudl…
i mean Upton opted out this year and he left a lot of money on the table
i dunno…i just dont think we can automatically assume he wont opt out in 2020 shoudl we acquire him…if he does, then so be it…if not yeah…it coudl be an albatross…no doubt…but i cant imagine he’d tail off too much until 33 or 34 right? sure injuries and all that…but if he tails off to hit only 30 HRs and drive in 80 RBIs is that really all that bad… sure for the 30mil he might get in a year that might seem too much money but that is a long way from now…
he is a gamble…MArlins know this better than anyone…a game that they couldnt afford it ends up being…even when he is playing well they cant afford him…well they cant afford enough other players to utilize his performance well enough…
now the Cardinals have more resources to take advatnage of what he really brings, and a much healthier farm system to help supplant his high cost with lower cost players when needed…
anyways…i like Bruce as a 2nd big bat…but id want something more dependable and less streaky too shoudl we go that route
GScott…i am there with you…
though i might offer Reyes for Archer straight up
Reyes looked good early, but had control issues, then he gets hurt…i cant imagine he will be the best version of himself until at least 2019..maybe later if he has to relearn his control
Archer is signed through 2012 maxing out at 11mil (6.5. 7.5, 9, 11) for his 29, 30, 31, 32 years in age…
he has already shown he can be #1 and push for Cy Young votes…we’d get him for his prime pitching years and never have to pay big money…
Reyes, COULD be top of rotation, but it still remains to be seen….i’d do Reyes for Archer straight up if they wanted it….even if i dont really want to lose Reyes…
I think we could compete with a Schwarber + Happ deal…I dont think they deal Russell or Happ really…but i think we coudl compete with those guys…it’s not like either of them or even all 3 were worth the potential and cost saving that Reyes could come should he blossom…
i still think we have the amount of prospects other teams want…also we have guys at the right ages…not too old and not too young…
but to each his/her own..
im still thinking on my trade i proposed earlier…and how much i like it…Archer, Longoria, and Stanton and Gordon… it woudl be bold but i believe itwoudl be doable…and totally show our fans and the MLB that we are not going to let the Cubs have the Central until 2020’s when they have to actually start paying their spoils of tanking
agreed GScott….and his contract being so affordable i would overpay on our end just to keep him from the Cubs in fact…if you add a cheap rotation to the cubs they will be able to overpay on any and all available superstars, as their young cheap hitters are all cheap for many years…
I dont think anyone in the central could survive and contend with Archer being added to the Cubs…
i know Schwarber for Archer would seem good to the Rays but id hope they woudlnt fall for it…we coudl offer much better
not good to see the TV ratings down…just like butts in seats they need those viewers….i never miss games but i coudl understand people tuning out at various points in the last couple years
though i would ask about how the ratings take into account mlb.tv…i havent watched it on “TV” in many years…but i watch mlb.tv all the time..even rewatching parts of games…
if the move to mlb.tv is not accounted for then im potentially not as worried about the ratings…watching on your ipad or phone while other people watch “tv” is a legit part of a lot of families lives…
to add:
what about Archer from the Rays as a target? and as a valuable piece in general
what about Britton from Baltimore?both seem to be pieces that could be had in deal and both are at spots we should be looking into
Britton would be the type of non sign for big money closer deal that the FO doesnt seem to like…not saying we go that route as i believe nicasio and the new guy from JApan seem to be our path of least resistance and value
Now an Archer deal would greatly make up for missing out on Quintana and Gray (both whom we were shown to have interest in…and both of them obviously because of their long term control and top of rotation stuff)…i can’t imagine we were looking in their direction if we werent interested in a similar piece and Archer is probably the best the three in performance and value (signed through 2012 at 11mil last year)
to me a trade for Archer would be worth all the prospects it would take and make up for not re-signing Lynn AND bringing in a solid upper rotation guy to replace Waino long term while giving the remaining kids a chance to figure it out without having to lean on them…it also allows us to trade a few more good SP players in other potential deals as we would have one less spot for the rotation and thus one less need for a young SP
2018 Cmart Archer Wacha Weaver Waino …is pretty good especially with Reyes waiting
(as i believe Weaver and Reyes are the only untouchables…though i have started to reconsider lately)
2019 CMart Archer Wacha Weaver Reyes …is crazy good, young and relatively cheapi brought up an Archer Longoria trade idea before…and while i agree Longoria has peaked, he is still a dependable middle order bat…the type of bat we are missing AND the type of bat that would pair wonderfully with a Stanton or JD MArtinez or guy we bring in mostly for money
Archer and Longoria
for
Kelly + Gyorko + Piscotty + Hudson + JFernandezStanton + Gordon (they eat a bit of Stanton’s salary but we take on Gordon)
for
Flaherty + Wong + Grichuk + Sierra + Gant + Machado or Arozarenasign Nicasio and Nishiona(sp?)
sign backup catcher like Hanigan, Avila, or Lobatonrotation:
Archer, Cmart, Weaver, Wacha, Waino (Reyes)
Nicasio, Nishiona, Cecil, Brebbia, Lyons, Bowman, Tuivalala
lineup:
Gordon, Carp, Longoria, Stanton, Fowler, Pham, Yadi, DeJong
Hanigan, Diaz, Garcia, JMart, Baderthinking out loud again…. but that lineup is stacked and that rotation looks very good
Longoria and Gordon are a bit older…but we wanted some veterans…and they are still good and do things we can use…Stanton mashes until at least 2020….and ARcher is what we would HOPE any of our young SPs become…we’d still have ONeill and JAGarcia, BAder, and Knizner, and Wisdom and voit, and Perez and MErcado and Sosa…..still have Alcantara, Helsely Gomber, Hicks, Poncedleon, Woodford, Ellis, and more for pitching….interesting…id be quite happy adding a slugger like Stanton…even with the money and opt out option in 2020
and id guess the more money we take on the lesser the prospects they want back…so id think they’d keep a bit of the contract too to get better prospects which we can offer
if it was Tulo at 5mil instead of 20 would you be interested?
if he was healthy he would be an interesting option for 3b
im not really interested, just at what point does he become an option worth considering… 2017 was an injury riddled year for him…but 2016 wasnt the worst….i dunno…
anyways… DOnaldson…i have a bad feeling we will overpay to get him…just a hunch, i hope i am wrong
i still dont get the deal with wanting Donaldson NOW…he costs a lot of money and will cost too much in prospects to pry him away as they have built up the story that he wants to stay there and finish his career and that they dont want to trade him etc etc…whether it is true or not it makes the cost go up…
i do think they want to move him though but unless they get the Quintana, Eaton sale like deal (which they shouldn’t be asking for as each of those other deals all went up because of control) i think they hold him and use him…and hope he stays healthy enough so they can deal him for mega value at the deadline
for as expensive as Stanton is…at least the traded assets and salary would be mitigated by at least 3yrs of on field play…and 3 yrs allows more prospects to take the others places…and the Cardinals do a good job of cultivating good prospects…mostly on the pitching side but that isnt a bad thing
I’d bet we coudl get Tulowitzki from them if we wanted for pennies on the dollar…he’s been injured but healthy could still have a couple more good years….not at his full price of course
agreed BCC
also…as it seems pretty clear Fowler doesnt want to go anywhere this is all pretty moot right?…. i mean he has a no trade clause and has already publicly stated how he wants to build somethign in StL…
comparing to Leake makes sense had Leake spoke out about how much he loved stl and wanted to stay here like Fowler did…
get used to Fowler chances are he isnt going anywhere
and eating his contract is a big deal…you said you’d bet plenty of teams woudl take him for 5mil less per year….that means nothing until i hear people interested AND i hear Fowler saying he’d liek to get out
nevertheless, THIS thread is about Donaldson….not Fowler…let’s get it back on track
Carp was supposed to hit 3…didnt work…once he went back to leadoff he got better not feeling liek he has to hit anyone.,..throw in his shoulder injury woes and you have a down year…
Carp i think woudl be a nice #2 between Fowler and Stanton…
Fowler had a much better year once he left the leadoff spot..and i think he likes driving guys in…is he a 33 hitter no…but he woudl be impressive at @2 with realy #3 and 4 hitters
I see no problem with Carp and Fowler coexisting…unless you have a bias against one or both of them and are trying to create validation of your own bias
Carp L, Fowler S, Yelich L, Stanton R… is a pretty impressive 1-4….throw in Hosmer instead of Yelich if you want too…
hardest thign for me with acquiring outfielders is that the more we are intrgued by other OFers…it just drives down the value of our OFers and the amoutn of them we need to move to fit in whoever else coudl come in…
surprising to me…but makes me wonder how much of Matheny depended on Lilly to make those calls about use of the bullpen…i doubt MM threw Lilly under the bus but Lilly always seemed to be a guy who had an opinion and didnt waiver…which can be good and bad…
still this was not the first move i expected…
MM is definitely in make the playoffs or else for 2018 mode
Im guessing Mabry is with MM until the end…they might bring up CLapp for a spot jsut to make sure he doesnt get lured away in case MM is gone after next year as i think theyd definitely put Clapp in the manager spot..
GScott…no worries…i know i can drag on sometimes…i gotta work on it too 🙂
condensed is rarely my thing…but i will think on it sometimes
Nyquist…agreed, but id guess he’d be the kind of low price guy they are going to build around and depend on as they try to move Prado to someone else….
Gordon
Prado
Chenare all guys who coudl be had for less than asking price id think…and while their salaries arent that great to take on…id take on one to get Yelich and Stanton cheaper
Id take Prado, Gordon, Stanton, Yelich off their hands…throw in Barraclough too…i might even consider Chen
Gordon had a pretty good year…PRado was hurt a lot which isnt good but is a contact guy with a good glove…
but if we coudl get all of them for cents on the dollar id consider it…
we’d have to move Wong in the deal probably but they’d want that, add Pham (cheap is good for them), and add in PIscotty…as well as a young starter like Gomber or Hicks or Woodford…maybe Gyorko in the deal.. i dunno…not all these gusy but cheaper salaries for decent players woudl interest them id think…Gordon,Carp1,Yelich,Stanton,Fowler,Yadi,DeJong,Prado/Diaz3,pitcher
Gordon gets on base as it, Carp woudl hit or get walks moving Gordon over AND i think he’d hit well in front of a hitter that people didnt want to pitch too his eye is already impressive, Yelich or Stanton in 3 spot drives in peopel or gets them over…and the following drives them in…the you start over with the 2nd 8 and a leadoff/power guy like Fowler followed by a good hitter inYadi, the Dejong to drive em in along with Diaz/Prado
Im not saying we go with one big trade to fix our issues…only that Miami matches up well…AND has a lot of parts that woudl upgrade the offense all without driving up the payroll like a big FA signing or two woudl do…
so let’s say:
Gordon Prado, Yelich, Stanton (they eat a little money now because we take on Gordon and Prado and Yelich)for
Wong, Pham, Garcia, Gyorko, Gomber, Gant, Fernandez
we take on a lot of money…they cut payroll big time and get some cheap contract MLBers and a few young prospects…
not enough? too much?
then use the other prospects to bring back a nice SP like Archer… Piscotty + FLaherty + Woodford + Sosa
sign Nicasio and a backup catcher and call it an offseason 😛
he graded out as -4.3 and 15th out of 17 qualified CFers…right behind Trout and McCutcheon at -2.9 and -2.6…and before you start attacking Trout’s low numbers because of less games or innings…well Trout had more innings in CF than Fowler did
im sure everyone would hand over Cf to Trout in a heartbeat…probably McCutcheon too…and i dont exclude myself from that list… but truth is…he isnt all that bad…i’d prefer someone else and we have other good options…
GSCOTT… read my post…i said without moving Fowler next year is pretty high but AFTER that it comes down…then i listed all the money that comes off including Fowler and Waino…
it might not have been as clear to you but it was clear to me…i know when his contract is up…it’s pretty ridiculous to think i woudlnt know that…especially when i list out the rotation for 2018 having Waino/Reyes in it only a few posts before
my point is that yes…next year it coudl be high with Fowler still on the books…if we coudlnt trade some of his money…but in 2019 Waino’s 20mil makes the budget much nicer…
and shoudl we go after 3 big players this year in FA and trades…we’d have little use for the blockbuster FA market in 2019….as we woudl have already snagged everythign we need…young power hitter star, young dependable bat and defender, young ace
i will try to be clearer in the future but i am sure i wont always so some common sense may need to be used when reading my posts from time to time….but i do take some agency in it
and MS…
yeah IF….it is always IF…i am not in charge of anything…i dont see their metrics or worth and value analytics
and yeah…they dont tend to go big…BUT…even last year they brought in TWO big contracts…AND re-signed Yadi and Carlos to big money…. so they actually do go big often… it’s usually just not in the areas most posters like…
but…there seems to be pretty clear indication that they have to make big changes this offseason…and as that seems pretty clear…judging the potential of this offseason to past offseasons seems awkward to say the least…will it mean huge trades and upping the budget to 250mil…probably not… but that is what this thread is for…thinking out differing solutions and ideas and letting them be…their value and purpose for posting isnt about attacking them and trying to stop them from existing… the point is to think through idesa and try to start a discussion… if your only participation in the discussion is to try to end the discussion then why participate?
there are plenty of threads for being a buzzkill and attacking all sorts of things, from stats, to coaches, to players, to management…this is the one thread that is for us to feel free to think out loud and discuss things no matter how ridiculous they might seem to anyone else…if you dont want to participate in that…then don’t….
having said that…everyone has a say…i just dont see why you wouldnt want to throw out ideas too, talk through them…it’s not always the most fun…but it beats being pessimistic about everything all the time..plus it’s fun to think outside the box sometimes…
interesting numbers
it felt a little worse than that but it’s cool to see that the numbers speak against the rhetoric that Carpenter cant play anywhere on the field
brian..so youre argument against keeping Fowler is that he is a waste of money for his on field play right?
how is eating all that money to send him away not an even WORSE waste of money, which is an assured way of “compounding” the problem
keeping him and playing him in whatever role he would have would bring a return for him that is greater than zero no matter what he does
i am not against moving him, but eating the money (which is huge money) for nothign back is ridiculous IMO, eating HALF his money and bringing back a decent prospect…maybe…eating all of it for nothing or most of it for nothing is just bias against the player because you dont like him
he performed well enough, i dont like him in CF anymore…i dont really want him as a #3 hitter, but he put up pretty good numbers outside of average, he got a little banged up but so did most of the team
who me how his numbers arent good enough… not for the money but for the performance…eating the money does nothing except give another team his performance for free…while we pay for his performance somewhere else….i dont see how that isnt a negative cost/value imapct
and if you think you can trade him for something without eating all the money then please explain who you think will take him and all that money on