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You have to give something to get something unfortunately…. which is what Mo doesn’t seem to understand, when he has overpaid he hasn’t had good luck. (Fowler and Cecil)
Do you think the Marlins or Rays would take less?
Not sure how a trade would match up with several suggested targets but here goes:
Donaldson for Gyorko or Wisdom, Hudson, Mercado, or Grichuk, or Bader, perhaps Jose Martinez instead of one of the prospects.
Yelich and Gordon, for Alcantara, Bader, Wong and Woodford. GYorko or Martinez could replace one of the prospects, but that would hopefully fetch some relief help also. Maybe Tayron Guerrero.
Welcome, Scott. Some thoughts on your proposals. Do you think that is too much to give for one year of Donaldson (plus a comp pick if he walks)? It might take a lot to break him loose, though…
On your second proposal. Gordon is a .300 hitter and stole 60 bases to lead all of MLB and Yelich is a cost-controlled slugger who is still just 25 – the kind of player they may want to keep. They are under contract through 2021 and 2022, respectively. I question whether your four would have much of a chance of fetching them both, let alone with a pitcher from Miami, too. They might be nice to get, but I suspect the price would be much higher. JMO.
I hope Girsch/Mozeliak at least kick the tires on Machado. Donaldson turns 32 on December 8, and he’s surely going to want 5 years. His ‘athleticism’ is going to drop off a lot during the last two years of his contract. He’s not that good defensively as it is.
Moustakas would be okay. But he’s not that great defensively, either. Gyorko’s defense at third might be as good as, or better than, either Donaldson or Moustakas. I’d almost just as soon see them go after Stanton, and Ozuna, and lets see if Wisdom can hit 30 Hr’s playing third. We know he’s got great defense at third.
BTW, you hear talk about ‘athleticism’ lately. Its not really clear to me what ‘athleticism’ means. I’m thinking it means something like ‘willing to be aggressive and play hard, and of course, having the tools to do that’.
CFinChiTown, why do you want to get rid of Pham?
Also, how are they supposed to spend growing net worth?
https://www.forbes.com/teams/st-louis-cardinals/
Growing net worth is not, but pocketing a few (43M) plus the new TV deal?
I don’t suggest throwing away Pham by any means, but his value will never be higher and if they get a 3 and 4 hitter to play RF, 1B or 3B then I’m all for him in CF or LF next year. Rewinding a year and knowing how he would turn out and avoiding Fowler would be nice.
In other words, you think Pham is going to take a nose dive this year? If he performs anywhere near his 2017 numbers, he should be worth more next off-season.
Also, CFICT, what’s the 43M? Where did you get that number? The Forbes website does not list anything that is 43M that I can see.
Not sure if this helps, but Goold identified revenue from the new TV deal at $55 million per year. (At over a billion total over 15 years, it should average $67 MM per year, so perhaps it ramps up over time.)
I believe I have read where it ramps up over time but I thought that is why it was $55 million instead of $67 million.
Correct, I do not see Pham having a year like he did this year. Trading him while his value is maxed out is what I’d do because of his history. The $43M was their income in 2016, with around a $150m payroll. With another $30-50 in the new TV deal, if they don’t have one over $175M it would be fair for all fans to be extremely disgruntled.
Even disregarding Pham’s best year, and including Ozuna’s best year, Pham’s fwar per plate appearance is still higher than Ozuna’s.
Ozuna is younger but only onder control for two more years. Pham has 4 years of control and despite being 30, there is no reason he can’t produce his career average fwar for the next 4 years. In other words, Pham is worth far more than Ozuna on an expected excess value valuation. I for one would not Trade Pham for Ozuna straight up given their salaries and years of control.
My personal opinion is that one has to consider the impact of multi-year contracts and plans for 2019 as well. Overspending this year and getting caught with not enough money to pursue what looks like a better free agent class in a year could be a bad long-term move.
I think they definitely need to spend more as part of improving the team for 2018, but throwing out a specific payroll number and using it to assess a good winter or a bad one is not something I would do.
I would have this debate with nate every off-season, as he called for them to sign whoever the top free agent was (as well as “trade the entire farm” for another team’s superstar, who was seemingly not available). Remember Chris Davis, who got $23 MM per year for seven years, only to stink? Care is always needed.
Agreed about not wanting to overspend this year, given the free agent class next year.
But given DeWitt’s statement about long-term free agent contracts not working out, does anybody realistically expect the Cardinals to be in the bidding for Machado or Harper? I don’t.
And with a lot of teams wanting to bid on those two players, it might depress free agent prices for Moustakas, Frazier and Martinez this year.
I don’t see a lot of teams bidding on Machado. Most of them already have a really good thirdbaseman. (Why the Cardinals don’t, nobody knows.)
Dodgers – Justin Turner – owed $51M through 2020
Nationals – Ryan Zimmerman – owed $50M through 2020
D-backs – Jake Lamb – under team control until 2020
Cubs – Kris Bryant – under team control until 2021
Rockies – Nolan Arenado – under team control until 2019
Astros – Alex Bregman – under team control until 2022
Red Sox – Raphael Devers – still a Rookie
Blue Jays – Vlad Guerrero – ETA should be about 2020
Yankees – Gleyber Torres – ETA should be 2018 – 2019Just about every other team is rebuilding. Yunel Escobar is a free agent so the Angels will be looking for a thirdbaseman this winter, and my guess is that the they will sign Moustakas. So who will be the bidders for Machado?? Probably the Rangers, with Joey Gallo moving to first base, and the Cardinals. Some of the rebuilding teams like the Mets, the Phillies, and the Giants, could be bidders, also. But they are probably at a disadvantage because they are rebuilding.
As we’ve seen many times before, it really only takes one team that absolutely has to sign a player to drive the price up. The player’s agent typically will sucker that team until he gets the insane contract that he wants. It works almost every time. But it doesn’t appear that several teams bidding on Machado will be what drives the price up.
The Phillies are a big market team and only have one salary on the books after 2018. They can pay BOTH Machado and Harper $40 million per year, and still be $100 million under the luxury tax.
They took on three bad contracts to get prospects this past year, and wound up flipping two of those bad contracts for more prospects. Management recently broke the news to the ownership group that they are planning another low payroll season, to which their ownership replied just don’t pass up any good deals.
They are all in for the offseason of Machado and Harper. Heck, they can even acquire Stanton, and STILL be about $70 million under the luxury tax.
What make anyone think Pham can repeat what he did this season?Sure he surprised a lot of people but will he sustain that level?I see no reason to think he will.He will be 30 years old,has a injury history and has vision issues.Ozuna had a monster year and will get a big raise in arbitration and would be under team control until after 2019 season.Pham has proven nothing other than being a partial ONE year wonder.Pham is older and cheaper I agree but as for being a difference maker I say Ozuna.Yelich’s name is gaining traction with a lot of Cards fans as a trade target because he is young(25),under fairly cheap contract for several years and can play CF/LF and bats LH.He will cost more tradewise,because of reasons mentioned above but if Cards can get rid of Fowler somehow that would help.
Agree that there could be a rebuilding team like the Phillies that could effectively ‘force ‘ a player to sign with them by throwing so much money at him that he can’t refuse. That’s sort of like what the Red Sox did a couple of years ago with David Price. I think the Cardinals should consider going after Machado now. But my guess is, that if he hits the open market, the Rangers will be the favorites to sign him.
CardsFanInChiTown
Participant
Correct, I do not see Pham having a year like he did this year. Trading him while his value is maxed out is what I’d do because of his history. The $43M was their income in 2016, with around a $150m payroll. With another $30-50 in the new TV deal, if they don’t have one over $175M it would be fair for all fans to be extremely disgruntled.
I don’t know why Pham couldn’t have another year like 2017. Since 2010, Pham has hit fairly well every year except 2012 and 2016. He has shown power in previous years as well as the ability to hit for average. He has an .890 OPS in AA for his career and an .840 OPS in AAA for his career.
I also looked over the Forbes article again. Once again, I don’t see where it lists their income in 2016 as $43M. The only figure that is anywhere close is their operating income at $40.5M. Is that the figure that you mean?
even if Pham regresses a little he still had a GREAT year (compared to other top outfielders)…so even a little less than GREAT is still pretty darned good…and if we can get that we should be happy…
a total collapse of his ability is pretty ridiculous to assume…1 yr wonders happen, but how many teams bank on them being terrible the next year? none…you just cant…you can try to give yourself some backup options just in case (which has Tyle ONeills name written all over it..maybe Adolis or Bader or Sierra or whomever is left after the trades)
and if it is so obvious that he is going to regress WHY would anyone else give top value for him? You dont think they can see he has injury past and vision problems and has had one really good year and is older?
his value will be no higher on any other team than it is here, as any attempt we have at putting him out there shows our doubt on his ability and thus lowers his trade value immensely… now if someone came to us with a big offer for him, that is different but that is impossible to predict
to me maximizing Pham’s value has him starting every day and shoudl we be terrible, using his good year to move him at the deadline…if we have a good year …we ride him until he needs repalcing…and he has yet to show he needs replacing
Mud- FYI, Zimmerman is 1B for the Nats. I think their 3B is Rendon.
Chitown- I agree with all of your proposals except the part of giving up Reyes for Archer. To me that defeats the purpose of getting Archer. We need to come up with a package that doesn’t include Reyes or Weaver. I know, easier said than done.
We won’t beat the Cubs by outslugging them but we might be able to beat them with a young dynamic rotation, something they don’t have, at least yet.
I really wish the Cardinals would stop offering their younger players long term contracts. Rarely does it work.
Wong- The first couple of years were terrible. He put up good numbers this year but was hurt too often.
C. Martinez- I would argue that contract hasn’t been worth it so far. His peripheral numbers are pretty good but when it comes to crunch time he has not performed as an ace. He is a number 2 starter at best.
Piscotty: That contract has obviously been a mistake so far. Maybe he can turn it around but we are paying him much more than we had to for only hope. Is he the next Allen Craig?
Lynn: Overall not a bad value. 2 of 3 years were good with one TJ year.
Craig: Let’s not forget him. That contract was a disaster. Luckily the Red Sox bailed us out.
Why not just allow the young players go year to year in arbitration and make them earn the dollars? I get the cost certainty argument but too often these youngsters sign on the dotted line then start to fizzle. It can’t be a coincidence.
I posted the above in a different thread but I realize that this thread is more appropriate.
With today’s hindsight, my quick take on five contracts you cite is this.
Ones I would still have done: Lynn, Wong, Martinez
Ones I would not have done: Piscotty, CraigI don’t see these extensions having tied up significant chunks of payroll or kept them from doing other things. As you noted, they came out like smelling like a rose on the Craig deal. Piscotty remains an open question.
Note they have (wisely) avoided deals like these with any of the relievers.
Always interested in what others think…
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