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I am with Bob here in that getting Gray is fine, as long as he is your #2 guy. If you really want to do a “worst to first” turnaround, you need to make a big splash, and the opportunity is right in front of you with the kid from Japan.
Again, we may not be able to land him even if we make the best financial offer, as he may prefer a coastal destination. But you have to go all in on this kid.
Sure wish we had been able to retain Maddux. I hope Sonny does not get discouraged by the coaching team this club employs. Maybe they are a good group, but it just seems like something is not right.
Which brings to mind Ollie’s comment a couple of months back about ridding the clubhouse of guys who were not team players – guys who apparently did not care if we won or lost. I wonder if that has been accomplished by jettisoning Knizner, Hudson and those dudes?
agreed about the backloading is big news
that’s 15million to play with + whatever is left and even trading…probably potential 30-40m?
but what is the target?
without moving Matz there is no rotation spot…and putting Matz in the pen is a dumb idea for 12million (same as Lynn or Gibson)…and moving Matz just doesnt seem likely with his health, unless we are going to take a loss and just dump the salary for a lottery ticket prospect…which might be the plan
if we want to go for Yamamoto or Snell or absorbing Glasnow…we now potentially have the funds
and tbh it could also mean we also have the funds to potentially absorb Soto’s pricetag for this next year
Could we find SOME way to acquire Yamamoto and Soto? as well as a reliever (maybe Luis Garcia reunion?)
THAT team looks scary
Yama
Gray
Mik
Gib
LynnHelsley, Garcia, GG, Lib, Jojo, Pallante, King, Zach
Noot, Soto, Goldy, Arenado, Willson, Gorman, Walker, Donny, Edman
Winn, Palacios, Ivan, Burly/Saggese?I would still like to swing a trade for Cease. It might cost us a few good players in return but it wouldn’t put a huge dent in the budget.
Cease
Gray
Mikolas
Gibson
LynnNot a bad rotation.
We would still have room to do one more move. I don’t know if we could afford Soto but I would consider Josh Hader. Normally I do not like spending big on bullpen guys but he would be an exception. My fear is that he is going to follow Counsell to Chicago.
LACardFan
The backloading of the Gray contract is huge, and it makes the rotation look much better now. Instead of having roughly $3 million left to spend, the Cardinals have roughly $18 million.
That is enough to sign one of Ryu, Clevinger, Lugo, Wacha or Lorenzen. Or, it gets them substantially closer to being able to afford Jordan Montgomery, which would obviously be a huge leap forward for the rotation.
Great point. My guess is they are trying to offload Matz before they get anyone else. They are supposedly shopping him. That salary ($12.5M) plus the Gray savings ($15M) can land just about anyone on the market.
I just can’t imagine anyone taking Matz’s full salary back unless we attach a good prospect with him.
gs…is Gray our clear number starter even if we got Cease?
Good question. They are both number 2’s in my opinion. Gray finished second in AL CYA in 2023, Cease finished second in AL CYA in 2022 so take your pick on who would start opening day. It would certainly lengthen and streghten the rotation that is for sure. The big value on Cease is he is six years younger than Gray.
I’m thinking that the reason they backloaded Gray’s contract is not to save money for another expensive signing. I think they had to do it in order to stay within their budget constraints. After the 2024 season Goldschmidts $26M will be off the books and Gibson’s and Lynn’s $20M+ will be off the books, and they will use the money saved to cover the 2025 raises for the current roster and Gray’s ‘balance due’. I think that in order to sign another big ticket player, they will have to unload Matz’ and O’Neill’s contracts.
It’s possible that MO was just posturing like all the GM’s and player agents do at this time of the year, but he did recently say that they were done with starting pitching and going forward they will be looking for other ways of improving the team.
Here is the exact quote from Monday about additional starting pitching beyond the three already signed.
After signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, Cardinals POBO John Mozeliak said: “I don’t think we’re looking to add starting pitching now. I think it’s — where can we improve the club overall. But I learned a long time ago — never say never.”
— Benjamin Hochman (@hochman) November 27, 2023
Gray would be our best starter because he’s clearly better than all the rest. He’d be a number two in the number one role if the are done. With Cease it’s a toss up.
One way to get a number #1 starter is to spend money wisely. For example, don’t waste $22 million dollars on old and washed up pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.
I just can’t imagine anyone taking Matz’s full salary back unless we attach a good prospect with him.
Somebody is going to get caught short on pitching. A 3.86 ERA is nothing to sneeze at, it’s basically what he did two years ago, just in fewer innings.
You can have two years of Matz for $24 million, or one year of Glasnow for $25 million.
Two-thirds of the teams would prefer Matz for $24 million over two years.
Cardinals don’t need to ask for a “good” prospect return, just “a” prospect return.
And Montgomery won’t sign until nearly spring anyway. He is, after all, a Boras client.
As for Yamamoto, the Cardinals best chance of signing him appears to be his friendship with Nootbaar, and his mother’s friendship with Nootbaar’s mother. I also read that Nootbaar and Arenado flew to Japan to see him pitch in the postseason.
Great post, Scotty! Even though he’s a few inches shorter, if you look at Dylan Edward Cease, what Cardinal righty from yesteryear does he remind you of? Yes of course, Christopher John Carpenter. Carpenter was also 27 years of age when our Birds acquired him from Toronto. Even though Cease was a bit off his game last year, I think he’s primed to do what Carpenter did after he was traded to St. Louis. Hopefully, Mo & Co. sees the likeness and goes out and gets him before Baltimore or Cincy does.
LACF said:
As for Yamamoto, the Cardinals best chance of signing him appears to be his friendship with Nootbaar, and his mother’s friendship with Nootbaar’s mother. I also read that Nootbaar and Arenado flew to Japan to see him pitch in the postseason.
That might matter if everything else (years and money) are equal or close to it, but there is no reason to believe he (or anyone else) would take a discount because of relationships.
The only way the Cards will sign him is if they really open up the pocketbook with a team-record contract. That doesn’t feel likely in the current environment.
Frankly, based on what I have seen them do now, I don’t believe the front office ever gave a single thought to signing Yamammoto.
I’m guessing they heard the $200 million or more prediction and said “not in our budget”.
The only way the Cardinals will ever get an elite pitcher is to draft and develop one. Unfortunately, the draft and development genie abandoned them years ago.
That might matter if everything else (years and money) are equal or close to it, but there is no reason to believe he (or anyone else) would take a discount because of relationships.
I agree, it only matters if the money is close. And I can’t really picture a world where the Cardinals are going to be close to the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants or Tigers on this one.
Based on Gibson’s age and on stats that actually matter (of which games won is not such a stat) my answer is yes.
Games won relies on way more than a pitcher’s skill. A good offense and defense will make a pitcher appear better than he actually is.
I would venture that the bulk of the success of both is due to other teams.
Both of those pitchers suggest that perhaps the Cardinals front office does not evaluate very well either.
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