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bling said:
The answer was and is Mo didn’t care about experience in traditional scouting methods.
No, that is your supposition, unless you have “research” to back it up. How do you know Mo was not already satisfied with the depth of traditional scouting skills in the two dozen scouts and cross checkers already in place prior to Flores’ signing?
The answer is you don’t know, but keep trying…
P.S. Since you like backgrounds, I bet you didn’t know that Mo started in the scouting department in 1995 and was in charge of scouting in 1999 and 2000 (when Albert was drafted.)
Brian-You are as knowledgeable as anyone about the mechanics of our system outside the major league level. So in your opinion, what does it take to fix the Cardinals? I’m sure the answer is somewhere in the 63 pages of this thread. I don’t have time to read thru it all. Or maybe what it takes has changed since this thread was started. I’m sure I don’t know, but I have this feeling it’s going to be a 3-4 year process. Complete reorganization from the top down.
KCB, the posts by RBK and gscottar on page 61 are good reading. I just don’t know if when push comes to shove if ownership has the appetite to make sweeping changes. Walt was fired once, but the pieces were already in place to move ahead without him. It seems much less so now.
I had this blog post saved as it pretty neatly summed up the situation. The writer is Patick Karraker who was an active sports blogger at the time.
The hiring of Flores in such an influential role within the organization is a major step away from the Cardinals’ (and all of baseball’s) recent hiring tendencies, which gave preference to Ivy League-educated statistical geniuses who often had never even played the game. While Flores is obviously a very intelligent guy, having executed the startup of a successful Silicon Valley technology business and graduated with a masters degree in education from USC, his views on scouting will likely be different considering the fact that he played in the majors and places such an emphasis on video. Whereas a typical sabermetrically-inclined scouting director may base his evaluation of a player off of heavy data analysis and will largely neglect the visual element of the player’s game, a guy like Flores who has seen the reality of unpredictability in the majors and puts emphasis on mechanics may have a more traditional strategy.
Bling, I suggest you carefully re-read the last sentence of your blog quote. It says Flores may have a more traditional strategy, which is the opposite of your position… but thanks for sharing!
Brian I do know Mo’s bio. You haven’t said why you think Mo hired Flores, of all people, to be director of scouting, and what can be surmised from that choice.
This isn’t 2015 anymore. Clearly, Flores had a different background than a traditional scouting director, as did his predecessor, who was an analytics guy. The logical answer was they wanted to add a different perspective into the mix. How the Cardinals scouting has evolved over the last decade is what matters.
You have such an ingrained mistrust of data, analytics and the like that you regularly make unfounded conclusions that have to be corrected. Then I come off as an organization apologist because I debunk the claims, simply pointing out that we don’t know enough details to make such definitive statements.
It isn’t put forward as “this is my opinion”. It is presented as “Mo doesn’t care about traditional scouting,” for example.
I am the one who brought scouting into this discussion because I think it should be included among the organizational items to be evaluated (if a sweeping top to bottom analysis is undertaken vs. applying more bandaids). But I don’t pretend like you do that I know the internal details of how it works – and therefore, how to improve it.
I have never presented myself as having insider knowledge. I dont think it is reasonable to expect a fan site comment board participant to bookmark comments with caveats and disclaimers.
Awaiting your “research”. If that blog post is it, the emperor has no clothes.
I try to ignore some posters because they aren’t credible. I respect you and your knowledge of the game, which is why I engage. But at times, you have opinions and suppositions that you misrepresent as fact. That is a problem, IMO, if you care about your credibility.
I never intend to mislead, but I think if someone wants to think I am claiming to magically have insider information it is sort of their issue rather than mine.
What does that mean? I have never been a hit and run commenter and over the years have stood up to take countless punches.
I began by asserting that Flores runs a tech heavy operation and the traditional cigar chompers are gone. My position is that what Flores’s background is and is not is adequate reason to surmise what kind of operation he runs. I think Mo hired Flores to run an operation he was qualified to run, and I do not think Mo hired him to run an operation he had no qualifications or background to run.
I agree 2015 is a while ago. Time enough for a huge disaster to unfold. You deftly acknowledge that a problem exists without any hint that it is anyone’s fault. I do get that and do not mean to push, but the notion that the trainwreck we are seeing is nobody’s fault is absurd. I have no reason to hit Randy and LaRoque with a feather duster. Looking at the wreckage, they deserve being hit with both barrels.
This is a shell of our lineup, and it’s getting old fast.
My leadoff guy is in AAA trying to find his stroke.
IL’s, caused batting 9th to be a black hole.
Gorman went from front third of the order, to bottom third.
Noot with another ho-hum 1st half.
The bronze busts are not in anyones MVP race.
It took two seasons but Donovan’s BAbip finally deserted him.
The humor in this trainwreck is that I was more concerned with Winn’s production all winter.
I’d like to get informed on what’s going on with Jordan Walker. Not the boxscore, but what is the orgs approach? Swing changes? Plate discipline? Pitch types? Maybe someone can point me in the right direction, plz.
Not a lot of specifics here, but there are some implications… This comment was made by Memphis manager Ben Johnson two weeks ago.
“With Jordan, it’s just about being patient. He’s a young man with a lot of talent and I know that he’s going through a lot of emotions right now. I just got to, we’re all as a staff, we’re just going to have to pick our spots to make sure that he’s comfortable,” said Redbirds manager Ben Johnson. “They’ve got to be ready to learn before you can teach him. So we’re just going to be patient with Jordan and just make sure he’s in a good place mentally and then, we’ll give him what he needs.”
Here’s what Marmol said:
“Good conversation this morning, and he felt good about going down there and getting to work and being able to get back to producing, feeling good about where he’s at swing-wise and pitch selection-wise in order to get back up here and help us.”
What I have heard is the problem has been with low and away pitches and a resulting high ground ball rate.
He drew three walks on Sunday.
bling said:
…the notion that the trainwreck we are seeing is nobody’s fault is absurd…
That sir, is a classic textbook strawman argument, which no one made here, unless you can show the post in which that was supposedly said. Not knowing how to assess responsibility is very different from absolving anyone from it. Others more qualified than us are going to have to solve that. But you knew that already.
Thanks, and all updates appreciated (if you happen to hear article worthy info).
You know, in your spare time 😉
My Idea would be a total rebuild the way things look… but that would require a new front office, I don’t trust the current one to get anything done right with player evaluations…Marmol needs to be out ASAP he is 24 games under .500 the last 196 games….hell they fired Matheney for going .500 his last year.
Right now I would guess they could get a pretty good return for Arenado, Contreras and Helsley…I think the first 2 may have to waive No Trade clauses.
Goldschmidt they need to see if he can start hitting and deal him at the deadline I would think… if he can hit…also needs No Trade waiver
Maybe Gibson and Lynn can pitch fairly well the first half and you could ship them, Kittredge should have a little value as well near the deadline.
The second half you just need to see what Gorman, Walker, Winn, Donovan, Herrera can do….sink or swim time and get a good draft pick for 2025
Others more qualified than us are going to have to solve that.
Just to play devil’s advocate, BW, who are these other people? If its the same people that got us here, I’m not sure this gets fixed.
Agree, BHC, hence the reply I made earlier this morning to KCB.
“I just don’t know if when push comes to shove if ownership has the appetite to make sweeping changes. Walt was fired once, but the pieces were already in place to move ahead without him. It seems much less so now.”
When you make changes at the very top, needed moves the rest of the way down will be made afterward. At this stage, it seems that very few think that more tuning is going to be enough to change the current trajectory. Yet, that is what they might do until the off-season…
If/when a big bang happens, however, we have to be prepared for more turmoil as a turnaround could take multiple years.
Brian-I understand what you say about them making sweeping changes. I have no doubt they will continue down this path until after 2025. And just maybe MO has earned that respect of going out on his own terms. But I wish he would start the rebuild now instead of insisting on the current path for another year and a half. Than it takes another 3-4 years.
It’s a video game, but I tried out “The Show” 24, and decided to try building something from the roster. Wheeling and dealing, but with a plan.
It’s a video game, the trade proposals and valuation is off, but was all if felt i could do while trying to think about what to do.
I tore it down, just to see who survived and who didnt, i targeted players and teams that i thought were beneficial, and i had a couple ideas that i wanted to see. I have 3 big ideas, but i think doing both is more me just WANTING to do it ratheer than thinking it is smart to do all at once, so i just focused on a hitting change.
I tried it from pre-Spring training rosters (with injuries)
I wont share all of it, it’s not worth your time, or mine to be honest, but i will point to a few things i found interesting.
This is all made up crap, it’s fantasy, but that’s the point. But it doesnt mean that it cant be helpful or fun to think about when the sky seems falling
My BIG ideas:
(because the Cardinals will NEVER just go out and buy top players, they always have to “game the system” to stay at the top)– Target undervalued characteristics, tactics, and stats to find cheaper solutions that produce results that outweigh the investment.
– Utilize a style that is fun to watch and nostalgic and desirable by the fan baseOverarching theme 1: HIT THE BALL, little to no consideration for power, small ball
– My targeted ways to achieve this:
– .AVG…. particularly players that have the standout feature of HIGH .AVG
– It seems this one stat has been replaced by “better” metrics, but for a long time it was one of the biggest stats that indicated performance. And it is still very relevant today, we just have less players that achieve this lofty goal of HIGH AVG, so go get the only ones out there that can do this, no matter if they have no power
– look at the last 3 years for highest average at each position, add on speed tool
– if you find a very expensive player that fits all parts, you get them (Acuna, Julio R?)
– Arraez is a major player and possibly most important player, Using the farm and all assets to bring in Acuna and Turner and Corbin Carroll is the hardest.
– When scouting you are looking for AVG and SB, power can beOverarching theme 2: RUN, bench is full of speed and versatility
– SB is primary tool for bench and starters as much as possible
– singles become doubles with a SB, then a bunt, then a sac fly (via HIT THE BALL)
– getting one run every other inning is better than 2 or 3 once
– late game pinch running is key to late inning ties and wins
– pinch running early is not unheard of if it gives you a lead
– SB of 3rd (with 1 out) is far more on the table than ever before
– only elite speed, the guys that are the “guarantees”), more versatile the better, hit tool is great, but speed is first. Their job is to pinch run and play defense (versatile) late
– catcher with speed and versatility is something to develop in minors (convert a speedster to be a capable backup catcher)
– Jon Berti is the type of player you go get, versatile, SB threat, Bubba Thompson, Varsho (if he can still catch and will steal), if Billy Hamilton can still run you bring him in (especially if he can still play SS with some training)Overarching theme 3: (UNUSED in my sim) NO STARTERS, Openers and closers
– utilize 6 3inning pitchers, with 3 closers, 4 setup men and 1 extra 3 inning pitcher
– 7 day rotation looks like:
P1, P2, SU1, SU2, CL1
P3, P4, SU3, SU4, CL2
P5, P6, SU1, SU2, CL3
P7, P1, SU3, SU4, CL1
P2, P3, SU1, SU2, CL2
P4, P5, SU3, SU4, CL3
P6, P7, SU1, SU2, CL1
—–normal game: 3, 3, 1, 1, 1
—–alternate: 3, 3, 2, 1
—–alternate: 3, 3, 3 (blowout loss or win)
– a 7 day rotation program allows for scheduled rest, but also the ability to extend or alter for game situations, while having a healthy amount of options at AAA ready to fill a role even if temporarily
– embrace the reliever centric game
– acknowledge the gamble on big money pitchers is not worth the investment
– can utilize younger (cheaper) players earlier if they only have to be good 1 time through
– good closers and set up men are expensive, but through rotation program they can stay fit and effective———-another option i have tossed around is the same as this, but “STARTING a CL” so 3 inning pitchers start with 4 or 5 instead of 1, and subbing 1 SU for another CL, but i went away from it due to it meaning they will be facing best hitters when they are most tired (if that is a thing with 3 innings)
CL1, P1, P2, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL3, P3, P4, SU2, CL4 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL1, P5, P6, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL3, P7, P1, SU2, CL4 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL1, P2, P3, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL3, P4, P5, SU2, CL4 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL1, P6, P7, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )Of NOTE:
– some players in MLB game, that remained from STL:
Brendan, Victor
Zach, Libby, JoJo, Helsely, Kitt,– Some targeted players:
Arraez, Tre Turner (obviously there area few high priced ones Acuna, Soto, Julio), William Contreras, Yandy, Yoshida, Hoerner, Corbin Carroll, mostly look at last 3yrs of highest avg and pick, Bubba Thompson, Whit Merrifield, Billy Hamilton, Michael Harris, Estury Diaz, Bubba Thompson, Jon Berti, VarshoYarbrough, Kopech, Mason Miller, young starters or old vets Rich Hill, Paxton, etc., guys with something tough to figure out first time
NONE of this will happen or should NEED to happen, but a post like this makes me think so i am sharing
don’t hate on me, it is an idea (the point of the thread) the specifics arent important (to a certain degree)
Anyways, that’s enough , i havent done a long post in a while so apologies
(also i probably lost my train of though jumping around in here so again, apologies)
While I think watching small ball is really entertaining, it doesn’t win in today’s game. The overall talent level has increased in the game and if small ball still worked, there would be clubs doing it today. Unfortunately a team hitting home runs will be much better at racking up wins throughout the regular season than a small ball team. Now small ball can work in close games to up the odds of winning a single game, it just doesn’t hold up over a whole season any more.
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