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I cringe thinking about Arenado because of his home/road splits. Coors Field has been very good to him and while he’s still a good player out of Denver he is not going to be worth the kind of money he’s going to be asking for. Harper > Arando.
A look at teams that have signed megadeals to new players from a previous season success point
BHC, I don’t dispute Arenado’s splits, but I have been around enough to remember the same exact concerns about Matt Holliday. His Coors/road splits were really big, also, but he turned out just fine. Of course, everyone is different.
This isn’t just about Harper, but this seems the best place to put it. I also want to give a small thanks to NJ315. His mention of Eric Hosmer’s contract (in the context of Goldschmidt) got me thinking about other long term deals to players in their 20’s. This article is the end result of my investigation.
My Sunday feature: "Are the Best Years for Harper and Machado Still Ahead?" (free) https://t.co/HeeghlkQqC pic.twitter.com/AwHLZV35Lh
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 16, 2018
Interesting idea for signing Harper. I suggest even a 2 year mega deal? It would like him opting out of a bigger deal.
https://redbirdrants.com/2018/12/13/st-louis-cardinals-harper-one-year/Andruw Jones is Harper’s #1 similarity score at BR, through ages 23,24 and 25.
Jones had also accumulated 6+ service years through his age 25 season.
Don’t you think Boras would laugh at a one-year deal?
I did not look at Jones before, but I took a quick peek now. He was very productive through his age 29 season but dropped off very fast from there. The Braves got his good years and he was done at 35.
P.S. Both Jones and Scott Rolen were on the Hall of Fame ballot last year and both had enough votes to remain for another year at least. Rolen received 10.2% and Jones got 7.3%.
I love this quote….. What about one of the other teams that have seemed to make sense? The Cardinals haven’t made the playoffs three straight years and are sitting on a pile of cash thanks to their great business model, or what Boras called,
“The Big Bank of St. Louis.”
I guess a shorter term wouldn’t make sense. Plus, it would mean no big bullpen upgrade. But it would be pretty scary to have Harper added to the middle of the order.
Anybody want to get in a head-to-head bidding war with the Dodgers for Harper?
Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood have been traded to the Cincinnati Reds, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. Homer Bailey is one of the players going back to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The return for the Dodgers clearly will be more.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 21, 2018
The Dodgers would have to be the CLEAR favorite for Harper now. They are obviously shedding OF’s to make room.
Pretty good trade for the Reds, unless they gave back something crazy. They picked up a lot of talent today.
Full trade: Kemp, Puig, Wood, Kyle Farmer and $7M to #Reds for Bailey and prospects Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 21, 2018
This did not make the Reds a contender, IMO. They will score a lot of runs, but that pitching is pretty bad. Specifically, 14th of 15 NL teams with a 4.63 ERA last season. Wood for Bailey helps, but only a little. They added Tanner Roark, but lost Matt Harvey. Treading water, IMO.
I looked up Puig’s numbers in Cincy because some on Twitter were drooling over him hitting in GABP. Not good.
Even though Yasiel Puig was hitting against Reds pitching, he has just a career .254 BA and .847 OPS at Great American Launching Pad. Four HR in 68 plate appearances. Hope he likes weird chili.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 21, 2018
Great point, CC. All three new Reds are in their walk year. Looks to me like Cincy is following the tanking model more than thinking they will contend.
Maybe I’m being unfair, but I think Puig’s head is going to explode, going from a first place Hollywood team to the cellar-dwelling Reds — who will remain cellar-dwellers, despite the additions.
Brian said it best. The Cincy pitching is flat out bad. (And I’ll be shocked if the Kemp renaissance continues. The 34-year-old has been worth a total of 0.5 WAR over the past 4 years. The Dodgers sold high on him, for sure.)
Reds improve by 2-3 games, maybe 4. Which is a lot! But they need a lot more.
I would worry about Puig’s attitude, too. The one thing he has to play for is a big contract, though.
Brian, but if the Reds are tanking why improve the team and give up more in draft pick value than you will probably get back.
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