- This topic has 229 replies, 30 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Ouch. I suspect O’Neill could provide similar value with the bat as Martinez, but with superior defense.
I suppose Martinez is ok insurance if Fowler completely flops again or there are injuries…they must have not gotten any good offers.
This all makes sense to me. Why move JMart for peanuts when he is basically playing for free? He will be a great weapon off the bench. If we have to stash O’Neill in Memphis for awhile that is a good problem to have. Most teams would like that kind of depth.
CariocaCardinal
Participant
Free
Less likely to move Martinez why? What changed?Apparently the offers were underwhelming. No need to give him away.
Perhaps his trade value will be vastly higher during spring training too, once injuries hit some of the other contenders.
Apparently they were not inclined to trade him at all. The hardly tried. Keep trying no need to keep him.
“never particularly eager” if you’re not eager to do something most likely you won’t try hard
How do we know the offers were underwhelming???
I agree that we do not know what the offers from other teams were – only that they weren’t perceived by the Cardinals to be good enough for them to accept – or they would have. (I did not use the word “underwhelming” myself, but I get what they meant.)
Still could just be posturing,,,we were “happy” with our pen last year until we signed Holland for big money at the end
We might just be trying to get the best offers right now
Also, I am wondering if this is related to a potential Gyorko move
we have a very real problem with the bench as it will probably be 4 man
Pena-backup catcher….no wiggle room here
JMart-pinch hitter, emergency 1b and maybe part time RF
Gyorko-backup all of the infield…including SS
ONeill-backup CF and 4th OFoutside looking in
Munoz
RobinsonMy thoughts are that we dont really want Gyorko as the backup SS….and whiel he has versatility his SS defense is not good and Munoz has the same flex even if it comes with less pop
JMart and ONeill provide the impact bat for the bench so the need for Munoz to hit for power is not that important
Munoz proved he s fine fill in player wherever he plays and is young enough to get better, his bat is serviceable to good
MOving Gyorko with 1yr left isn;t great but it isnt that expensive
If a team is looking for a bridge player to start the year at 3b, 2b or even 1b holding the seat for a up and coming prospect….Gyorko is a perfect fit as he has also showed value off the bench
Perhaps Toronto deal would make sense….Vlad Jr is close but they will probably hold him off for a little while to get more control out of him, Gyorko would be fine to hold 3b until he is ready…and slide into a utility role or another position as needed
Maybe a CLE move with Gyorko going to 2b and them playing Kipnis in the OF?
Maybe BAL wants a veteran to man 3b and move Nunez off 3b…they are full of holes so a yr of him might help
ONe of the two i liek is a deal with TEX…which might be tough as we already dealt 1 3b to them… BUT how about dealing them Gyorko and a little bit more(Maybe one of our fringe starters) to help solidify 3b with Wisdom…and try to get back Kiner-Falefa…who can play all over including CATCHER, 2b, 3b, SS, OF…and we could leave Pena at MEM…and he can also hit well, and is a SB threat….that is about as useful as you can get from a backup catcher role…which is whuy i also like AStudillo from MINwhich leads me to MIN
whom we return to for a deal to try to snag Rogers and AStudillo again…this time using Gyorko
AStudillo is locked into their 3b job right now, but he is really just a contact guy which isnt great for that spot…Gyorko coudl hold it down until sano figures it out….we woudl obviously need to up the offer to get Rogers and Astudillo…but we have pitching pieces to offer them which are cheap and useful…i think there is a deal hereanyways… this is about JMart…
I think it sounds like posturing to get a final deal from teams but it might be more code for a future Gyorko deal in the end as it prepares people for some kind of move if it isnt JMart…
we really need a better backup SS than Gyorko…and right now if we carry Munoz or Sosa as that backup then that means ONeill is sent down…and i just cant see the team going with Fowler/Munoz/OZuna as the backup CFer
If we get a good deal for JMart then you can do it…but without a good one you are pretty much forced to go with the best deal you can get for Gyorko…who has real value too
i think the club woudl prefer to keep Gyorko as he has more versatility but lacking a quality offer for JMart the cost benefit doesnt work out
but keeping both on the bench is risky and a step backwards in team defense and speed and athleticism which seems to be a real change the team wants to have over what it has put on the field the last couple of years which prioritized hitting over defense and running
Jager, the Gyorko trade thought caught my eye. That is one subject that has been really quiet this winter, but I get the thought of trying to move him if they can’t get value for Martinez. Will be interesting to watch for any signals.
“If we have to stash O’Neill in Memphis for awhile that is a good problem to have. Most teams would like that kind of depth.”
It’s great to have depth, couldn’t agree more. But given the events of the past 12 months, and their respective long term major and minor league track records, if Fowler is in the Opening Day lineup and O’Neill is demoted back to AAA after batting .311/.385/.693 for Memphis in 2018, something is terribly wrong with the StL manager & front office.
The thing of it is, as both the fans and front office very well know, the Cardinals figure to need every single win they can get in 2019. And Tyler O’Neill projects as their 2nd or 3rd-best overall outfielder, depending whether you look at the Davenport or Steamer forecast. (For that matter, Davenport has him in a virtual tie with Ozuna for best outfielder on the roster.)
In 2018 Mo & Co. kept Hudson and Poncedeleon down in Memphis for faaar too long, stubbornly trying to get full value from several bad reliever contracts. That obstinance, coupled with Fowler’s eyesore of a season, inarguably cost the team a playoff spot.
If the front office did not learn anything from that experience, then a pox on their house.
Eloquent, Bob, but we already know that Fowler will likely be in the lineup to start the season. Seems to me that rather than denying what has already been announced that the more valuable discussion might be how long they should go with Fowler if he struggles out of the gate. Or to the topic of this thread, being sure to get rid of Martinez so there will be room for O’Neill. Just my thoughts…
I hear you, Brian. But I really, really don’t want to talk about how long they go with a struggling Fowler, because I don’t think there’s a limit, honestly. I think he could be bad, and stick all year.
Fowler was as terrible as just about any player in the sport in 2018. And yet it took Matheny nearly 2 1/2 months to finally bench him. And then, a month later, Shildt comes in and puts him back in the starting lineup. It was mad, and maddening.
Fowler probably won’t be that terrible again in 2019 — but if he’s a .680-.720 OPS guy, as I fear he will be, that would only embolden the club to keep his replacement-level play in the starting lineup indefinitely.
But okay, I’ll go along with the premise, sort of.
Let’s say that Fowler is exactly as execrable in 2019 as he was in 2018. I think that Shildt keeps him in the starting lineup until the All-Star break. (He must of course keep Dexter in the starting lineup markedly longer than Matheny did in 2018, or Derrick Goold will call Shildt a meanie, will say that Shildt makes Dexter depressed. Can’t have that, as Dexter’s emotional well-being is obviously the key to the entire organization. Just ask Goold.)Now, how long should they go with the 33-year-old Fowler, if he hits like 2018 again? One month, that’s it. Too many good alternatives to stick with him longer than that.
And please don’t anyone tell me about how Dexter Fowler was slumping during some period of some other season, and then turned it all around. That argument could be used to defend any excessive use of any aging failing player in any season. “Remember when he had a bad streak that one time, then got much better?!” Textbook rationalization.
On the Martinez matter, I would trade Jose for a very good reliever — even if I had to include a prospect as a sweetener. I’ve listed lots of trade targets over the past several weeks. If anyone asks me to list them again, I will. But I feel like I’ve beaten that deceased equine more than once.
But isn’t the “textbook rationalization” also what is behind your assumption they would start Fowler for close to 100 more games before taking him out of the lineup?
“They did it last year, so they will do it again this year.”
I think there will be stages to the Fowler saga if he struggles. First he is a starter, then he is platooned, then he is the 4th outfielder, only after struggling at every phase would the release him or trade him for pennies on the dollar.
Gyorko is a rental, unless you think he has 13mil value in 2020. I wouldn’t blame an acquiring club for viewing him as a rental. So how much trade value does he really have beyond his 8mil and 1mil buyout? We wouldnt get much, imo.
So unless it’s “make him go away”, he’s likely a bench bat.
And by the way, what is the difference between stashing O’Neill in AAA, but its “funny business” if we stash reyes there too?
O’Neill looks like a “major leaguer” too.But isn’t the “textbook rationalization” also what is behind your assumption they would start Fowler for close to 100 more games before taking him out of the lineup?
“They did it last year, so they will do it again this year.”
Good question.
One case is about athletic ability, expecting a player to repeat a specific hitting trait, despite the fact that (1)some element of hitting is random, and (2)hitters all decline eventually, often precipitously, especially in their 30’s. Dexter Fowler is almost by definition a different (and very likely lesser) hitter entering his mid-30’s than he was just a few years ago. (This is expressed most starkly by Fowler’s inability over the past two years to hit “power pitchers” as categorized by Baseball-Reference, after being just fine against them over his career.) So expecting Fowler to do what he did in the past, is folly. To me.
The other case is much more about human nature, expecting an individual (Shildt) or group (front office) to keep doing the same thing they’ve done in the very recent past, unless they’ve expressed an understanding that the first time they did it, it was a mistake. Shildt and Mo have never expressed any understanding whatever that either the Fowler contract was a mistake, or that re-inserting Fowler in the starting lineup in mid-July was a mistake.
Now, I know what your reply might be here. “Of course they’re not going to say those things in public.” And that’s true. But the other reason I don’t trust them to do the smart thing, is that front office has also shown zero sense that they understand how good O’Neill is — just like 12 and 24 months ago when they showed no sense of how good Harrison Bader was. If they’d known what they had in Bader after 2016 when he dominated Double-A at age 21, they would never have flushed all of the Fowler money down the toilet.
Warning. Pointless belligerent aside coming.
(And it all flows from John Mabry. Mabry stunk as a hitting coach. So young Cardinals were failing to develop, over and over again. Adams, Wong, Grichuk, Piscotty, Diaz. But the front office did not understand the cause and effect. They thought [and maybe still think] that their minor leaguers simply weren’t as good as their minor league performances made them appear. So 24 and 12 months ago they severely underestimated Harry Bader; and maybe worse, eventually they fired their highly successful pitching coach, and they retained the worse-than-useless Mabry.)
The mere fact that they’ve declared not an open competition for right field — no, not that, can’t have that — but rather that the suddenly sensitive Dexter Flower, that delicate depressive personage, will instead be handed the starting job right now, is in and of itself ample evidence to me that the organization is prioritizing Dexter’s happiness to a literally insane degree.
Bob Reed said:
“… just like 12 and 24 months ago when they showed no sense of how good Harrison Bader was. If they’d known what they had in Bader after 2016 when he dominated Double-A at age 21, they would never have flushed all of the Fowler money down the toilet.”
Bob, you mentioned this twice, so it definitely caught my eye. It seems your assertion is that the Cardinals should not have signed Dexter Fowler when they did since Bader was such a good prospect.
If this is not Monday morning quarterbacking, then you were a voice alone in the wilderness in December 2016. Bader had a good season at Springfield but it was EXTREMELY imbalanced. His OPS against LHP was 1.224. Against RHP, his line was a mediocre .249/.319/.377/.697.
Bader finished 2016 with 49 games for Memphis. His Triple-A slash was just .231/.298/.354/.652. Vs. LHP, his OPS was .754, against RHP, only .602.
So, from those results by Bader, you are suggesting they should not have signed Fowler? Really?
Thanks for the response, Brian. I’m very glad you brought up Bader’s splits, because I want to talk about those. And yes, I am and was suggesting the Cards should not have even considered signing Fowler, not to any sort of long term deal. Because they already very likely had their centerfielder of 2018 and beyond. (Bader was NOT going to be ready at the start of the 2017 season. I would never claim that. But he was clearly going to be ready soon, and Fowler was too old and too mediocre to justify any contract substantially exceeding the one he signed with the Cubs pre-2016. (One short year and a measly 8 million bucks, I believe. Cubs got it right.)
But I want you to be sure there is no “Monday morning QBing” going on. So here are some of the innumerable comments I made about Bader while he was in the minors. These are each mined from the now defunct John Sickels site.
Late August, 2015, the year Bader was drafted:
Of the 23 college bats drafted ahead of Bader, only 9 have even advanced to full season ball. Very encouraging — for Bader AND DeJong.
I like Bader as a potential Victorino, or at least Victorino Lite.
Posted by Mekonsrock on Aug 25, 2015 | 2:41 PMSo you can see my early interest and enthusiasm.
——————————–
From March of 2016:
Per Fangraphs, a total of 2,781 minor leaguers garnered at least 150 plate appearances last year.
Of those 2,781 players, only two guys had double-digit homers while going yard at least once every 7 games, stealing a base at least once per 5 games, fanning less than 20% of the time, and batting at least .280.One was Carlos Correa. The other was Harrison Bader.
While the two are of course NOT truly comparable talents, the above numbers do help put Bader’s fine (and admittedly abbreviated) 2015 season into context. There’s a very appealing balance of skills there, and if Bader plays CF as well as the scouting reports and available MiLB defensive metrics imply, he’ll be an up-the-middle defender for quite a while.
by Mekonsrock on Mar 11, 2016 | 2:17 AM flag——————————-
Next, June of 2016.
Yeah, Eloy’s got a bit of the “Harrison Bader problem,” where the BB/K/AB ratio puts people off — probably more than it should.
Jimenez and Bader are both top 45-60 types for me. (With room to move up 10-15 slots over the next two months, too.)
Posted by Mekonsrock on Jun 19, 2016 | 5:23 PMSo there you see a ranking range, midway through the 2016 season. Note the “room to move up” remark, as well. Because they both did in fact move up. Eloy for everyone. Bader just for me, apparently.
————————————
By September of 2016 Bader was top 50 for me.
With his 143 wRC+ at age 21 in AA, Bader is still a top 40-50 guy for me despite the poor AAA stint. I’d give him a solid 30% chance to be an annual 3-4 WAR guy over his prime. That feels like bottom of a top 50.
Posted by Mekonsrock on Sep 7, 2016 | 8:33 PMYes, I was the voice in the wilderness. Even just one year ago, Fangraphs barely had Bader inside their top 200. (Kinda like now, when they don’t have Elehuris Montero inside their top 250. But their bizarrely biased incompetence with Cardinals is a topic for another day.)
—————————————–
If you have access, Brian, to the Dexter Fowler post-signing thread of December, 2016, you’ll find me vehemently arguing that the advantage of Fowler over Bader, during the total run of the 5-year contract, would be ONE GAME in the standings for the Redbirds. One game. For $82M plus the surplus value of a mid first round draft pick. (I vividly specifically recall going overboard a little and estimating that surplus draft pick value at over $15M, just so I could say that Fowler cost the Cards ~$100M for one win. Nice round number, $100M.)
This “one game for $100M” conclusion was based on a combination of standard aging curves, plus Clay Davenport’s projections for Dex and Harry. Find the thread if you can. Because I was indeed in the wilderness when I made that statement, even though I backed it up with much more than opinion. People did not want to hear it. BikeMike agreed with me at the time. Don’t think anyone else did. Well, I’m sure at least a couple of folks did. But I don’t remember them by name. People wanted Fowler. World Series ring! Steal him from our rival! By and large, people mean well. Like 90-95% of the time. But in many instances they also cannot be reasoned with, unfortunately.
Anyway now it seems I very likely underestimated Bader. Which brings me, at long last, to the subject of splits.
Bader had a good season at Springfield but it was EXTREMELY imbalanced. His OPS against LHP was 1.224. Against RHP, his line was a mediocre .249/.319/.377/.697.
The line v. righties is correct, but Bader actually did this against lefties in AA: .426/.485/.1.000
That’s no typo. in A-ball in 2015, he did this against southpaws: .419/.468/.907
And in AAA in 2017 it was .389/.456/.778Yes, he likes lefties. And that line versus righties in AA? It was .249/.319/.377, right? You’re probably going to think I’m pulling your leg, but The Texas League average that year was .249/.316/.378.
So what we have is a batter who is average against same-siders and absolutely destroys oppo arms. On balance that’s a very good hitter. Like a football team that plays .500 on the road, but wins all their home games.
Only one year removed from college ball, and just 21/22 years old, Bader did indeed struggle in his first taste of Triple-A in 2016, as you mentioned, Brian. Then he was much better in his second try. Same with the majors. Struggled in 2017, and a bit above average in 2018.
And we should expect him to be above average going forward, because here is a very telling split that people should be focusing on a lot more, in my opinion.
2018 for the Cardinals
Home .357 slugging, and a .678 OPS
Road .492 slugging, and an .840 OPSAnd before anyone asks, that excellent road number was in no way padded by Coors or some other hitter’s haven. (He didn’t homer once in Colorado.) His four best road parks were Atlanta, San Diego, KC, and Frisco. In just 38 combined AB’s he homered 7 times.
Harrison Bader is the Cardinals’ Lorenzo Cain. Like Cain, never a top 100 prospect. Like Cain, a lot of value in CF and on the bases. Like Cain, hits lefties much better than normals. Like Cain, he can be a 4-WAR guy as nothing more than a league-average hitter. Let us embrace our Bader.
I didn’t want to tack this on to the previous post. Probably enough info in that one already. But here, from Feb. 2016, was a thorough post of mine on Harrison Bader, including some pre-draft analysis from Rob Ozga, who’s very good at that sort of thing. Someone asked why I liked Bader as much as I did.
—————————-
Well, there’s a few things.
Before the draft, I liked the way his hitting profile evolved through his 3 seasons at Florida. First year, he batted .312 while fanning just 9% of the time and managing a meager isolated slugging of .063. Next year, he hit .335 and bumped the ISO up a bit to .095 while whiffing 16% of the time. Then in 2015 it pretty much all came together, as his K% increased to an acceptable 19%, while his ISO improved all the way to .258, while batting .297 — a still-impressive batting average, given the level of competition in the SEC last year. Here was the prolific Rob Ozga’s pre-draft analysis:
I want to say that Florida JR OF Harrison Bader can do a little bit of everything, but that would be a lie. Harrison Bader can do a lot of everything. He’s a legitimate five-tool player and I’ll fight anybody who says otherwise. I’d take him over any bat in the conference not named Bregman or Swanson without a second thought. Above-average raw power, above-average to plus speed, and the ability to play center make him a lot like Vanderbilt JR OF Rhett Wiseman to me, but with a markedly better approach at the plate. If he’s there in the second, it’s an easy call. Also, I’m not a scout and smarter people have disagreed with me, but I love his swing. It’s not conventionally pretty, but his lower half and upper half are coordinated really well and there’s just enough of an uppercut (but not too much) to suggest his power surge is real.
And then Ozga again immediately before the draft:42. Florida JR OF Harrison Bader: plus to plus-plus speed; really good CF range; above-average arm; above-average raw power; quick bat; 5-11, 190 pounds
So I liked it when St. Louis nabbed him in the 3rd round. And then I saw him play in Peoria (Midwest League) in July. I ‘m no judge of swings or plate discipline just by looking, but in the field/on the bases I saw a player both quick & fast, a real ath-uh-lete. Probably not 6’ tall, maybe not even 5’ 11″, but certainly strong enough to project for average or better pop.
In Peoria, Bader did basically exactly what he did in college, playing CF well and hitting for a very good average and excellent power, posting a wRC+ of 152 via a slashline of .301/.364/.505. Now, minor league wRC+ numbers do not include park factors, and Bader’s home park is generally considered at least a bit of a drag on offense; in fact, on the road he hit a whopping .351/.415/.586. So even the excellent 152 wRC+ may be underestimating his abilities compared to league peers.
Here’s John’s profile from September: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/18/9346637/prospect-on-the-rise-harrison-bader-of-st-louis-cardinals
So I see a guy who has a lot going for him, in pretty much every phase except plate patience. (Just 15 walks in over 200 MWL at-bats.) With a better BB/K ratio, he’d be in my overall top 40-50 right now. As it is, I can’t see any way of keeping him off a top 100 list, and would personally put him in the 65-80 range.
by Mekonsrock on Feb 29, 2016 | 12:35 AM up 3 recs flag
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.