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No, I just chose not to get into personal insults. Disagreeing on baseball is great, but let’s keep it there. I respect your right to share opinions as you should respect mine if I disagree.
Ny, I went back and read the prior comments again but see it differently than you. In trying to explain my positions, I meant nothing personal. Let’s agree to move on, please.
After actually looking into it, I have found that Clay Davenport makes a number of projections, including league standings and detailed player numbers. I did not dig into his methodologies, but I should not have commented about them without checking first. I still think those WAR numbers look odd, but it would have been better to leave it at that.
I think Davenport’s projection model continues to punish Jose Martinez for his uneven and quite lengthy minor league track record. I agree entirely that it is too conservative, given what Martinez has done in MLB over the past two years.
2017 .309 with an .897 OPS
2018 .305 with an .821
Davenport 2019 50th percentile .266 with a .749 OPSOn the other hand, it’s one of the things I do like about Davenport’s model in general — it does clearly give a LOT of weight to minor league performance when forecasting MLB hitters. Much more so than Steamer, ZiPS, and other publicly available projection systems.
But in this case it bites Jose in the backside. Not unlike the fairly bleak 2019 Max Muncy forecast.
Max Muncy 2018 MLB actual line: .263/.391/.582
Davenport 2019 50th percentile .244/.356/.450Just for kicks, here are some other notables, with their Davenport 2019 50th percentiles per 600 PA’s. (Bearing in mind of course that some will get many fewer trips to the plate than that.)
Paul Goldschmidt 5.0 WAR
Matt Carpenter 4.2
Kolten Wong 4.2
Tommy Pham 4.2
Yadi Molina 3.8
Jedd Gyorko 3.6
Paul DeJong 3.0
Luke Voit 2.4Davenport’s system doesn’t like DeJong’s glovework nearly as much as, well, everybody else. But still, nothing shabby about a 3-win player. It just looks a little weak compared to the rest of the lineup.
Looking back, in late July when Mo wanted to get Harry Bader back into the lineup after Shildt removed him for Dexter Fowler, maybe instead of trading Tommy Pham it would have been better for Mo to simply release Dexter, and ever-so-subtly recommended to Mr. Shildt to start Ozuna, Bader, and Pham. But maybe that’s just me.
Astros, Rays and White Sox in on Martinez.
Astros make the most sense if we are looking for some bullpen help.
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Jose to Tampa seems logical.
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Maybe a guy like LHer José Alvarado. Not a lot of mileage on his arm and decent stats. Both players are fairly inexpensive and fill a need for each team. If Minnesota how about LHer Taylor Rogers. Not sure they would do that but just tossing names out there.
I said on page 2 that Tanpa was a logical landing spot and gave you a name of a pull pen arm that makes sense. The money would be similar for both teams and it fits a need for each. I guess we will see how it plays out soon enough.
I’d call Alvarado their closer today with Castillo in the 8th. I question their availability.
Agree Bozo could add proven to their roster with Meadows in RF and Choi at 1B/Dh, both LHB’s.
Alvarado would scare me. Those minors walk rates are insane, so unless he suddenly found control…
He also has an odd reverse platoon split, not in that he has been better against RHB (as many pitchers have been), but that he’s been dominant against them while just ok to decent on lefties.
That said, I guess his lack of control is somewhat akin to Jmart’s awful defense so maybe it is a good fit.
Tampas mlb ready depth is on the infield. Lowe, mc carthy, robertson.
I actually prefer the righty robertson of those 3. Tampa may prefer trading duffy or wendle, dunno.
Alvarado would scare me. Those minors walk rates are insane, so unless he suddenly found control…
80 strikeouts against 29 walks in 64 innings of work during his second big league campaign. He also sported a 2.39 ERA. Granted he was 1-6 with 8 saves but he would be a setup guy for us to team with Miller. Probably not the player they would give up but one I’d ask for. He will be 24 and he doesn’t have a ton of mileage on his arm. 4 years of control for 4 years of control. Again just a thought.
Alvarado put up some pretty good numbers last year. A .239 ERA, .183 Avg., and a 1.11 WHIP are all very good. He actually has five years of control left. It seems like a pretty good match to me. If we are determined to trade JMart we could do much worse than Alvarado.
We have two of the Rays most pressing needs, a big right handed bat and a starting pitcher that can pitch at the major league level. Jose Martinez and one of Gant, Poncedeleon, or Gomber would make the Jays a better team, at least five games better, IMHO. And both players are cheap and controllable which is what the poor-mouthing Rays love to hear most of all. The problem is that the Rays don’t have anything but prospects to offer in a trade. Brandon Lowe is a nice prospect. Lowe bats LH and he hit well in the minors. But, so what? He has nowhere near the hitting credentials that JMart has. And the Rays could really use a pitcher, not necessarily a top of rotation pitcher, but a pitcher that can help them now. I don’t see a trade with the Jays happening unless they offer an impressive package of prospects, something they are adverse to doing.
I just don’t see a trade with Houston happening. The two ball clubs no doubt have a cordial relationship, but are they ready be trading partners yet?
The White Sox are similar to the Rays in that they only have prospects to deal in a trade. The difference is that the White Sox are not close to contending yet.
Bottom line is Jose stays a Cardinal. I think his bat will help the team more than the unreliable defense will hurt. Also, I don’t think his defense is that terrible. Its just that, when he does make an error, its embarrassingly bad.
Correction – The preceding post was attributed to ‘OpeningDay’. However, it was me, mudville that wrote the post. I found out the mistake after it was too late to change it. The explanation is that I gave a subscription to TCN to someone for Christmas. Somehow when I came on line I was logged into OpeningDay and didn’t realize it. BTW, I gave him the subscription so he could read the ‘Subscribers only’ stuff. I really like those parts of TCN. I get a feel for what the players are like and I get to read interesting comments made by coaches and scouts, plus opinions and insights that don’t always show up in the forum.
BP help for 2019 would obviously be beneficial, but if they can get a very good prospect for him then they should jump on it. If Goldy for example goes down, or another few injuries happens, then I retract that comment of course!
Tyler O (to basically back up Fowler), Gyorko, Pena, LH bench bat, Munoz (plus several other not terrible options in AAA) would likely be the main 5, if they go with 5 vs just 4.
JMart, Gant and Gyorko should be traded and take the maximum return regardless of it being a solid prospect or a 2019 piece. There are plenty of relievers they could get for the money owed to Gyorko, Robertson, Britton, etc are all still out there at last check.
Britton, a top 100 prospect and (2) top 150 prospects > Gyorko, JMart and Gant and the money wouldn’t be substantially more, and they still have more than enough payroll room
If Bozo remains a Cardinal he’s a RF’r. The DH roster spots are being filled quickly. If Cle would view Bozo as an outfielder we have another potential trade partner.
The Cle outfield is currently RF greg allen, CF leonys martin (FA-to-be) and LF tyler naquin; possibly batting 7th, 8th and 9th. Memphis had a better outfield last season.
Cle has reduced salary and recent reports suggest they will keep their SP’s. Along with the outfield, their pen became a weakness due to free agency.
Tampa seems to line up to perfectly as far as their needs and value available to come back.
Tampa gets – Jose Martinez and Gant
Cardinals get – Jesus Sanchez and Shane McClanahan.Sanchez might be a little aggressive request from the Cards, but maybe not. He’s a LHH OF, their 4th ranked prospect via MLB and 33rd overall, finished 2018 in AA. McClanahan is a LH pitcher with a crazy FB and was just recently drafted. Due to control it seems he’ll end up as a solid BP piece, he’s their 8th ranked prospect.
I posted this in another thread, but it really belongs here:
Here’s a comment made by Matt Kelly at MLB.com:
‘As a hitter, there’s not much that separates Martinez from the biggest stars in the game, and an American League team can maximize his value by using him at the designated hitter spot.’The writer from MLB backs up his statement with stats.
Here’s a link to the piece:
https://www.mlb.com/news/which-al-teams-should-trade-for-jose-martinez/c-301605242Jose Martinez has value, especially as a DH where he can get 500-600 AB’s. He is also controllable and he plays for the league minimum. If he gets traded to an AL team for next to nothing, his bat is going to make our FO personnel look like fools.
I agree mud. We can’t give this guy away. We had better get a very solid return or otherwise just keep him. Anything else would be highway robbery.
Still have harper and pollock out there. When they find rosters it could help the castellanos and martinez markets.
mudville
Correction – The preceding post was attributed to ‘OpeningDay’. However, it was me, mudville that wrote the post. I found out the mistake after it was too late to change it.
I’m just going to call you KD from now on. I really did like the thread. I don’t see the issue with bringing back some milb talent from the Rays if we part with J-Mart and Gant, for instance. McKay would be nice if we included someone else maybe? I’m not sure what Martinez and Gant can fetch.
Fangraphs put $54M value on McKay:
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: In response to FG’s recent pieces on putting dollar signs on prospects, how does that work for Brendan McKay?
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Kiley McDaniel: The number is $54 million https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/Reinforcing what we already suspected… Biggest loser is Tyler O’Neill.
The latest from Rosenthal on the Athletic this morning says the #STLCards were “never particularly eager” to move Jose Martinez.
He went on to say, “one rival executive says the Cardinals are even less likely to move him now than they were previously.”
— Michael Ritter (@MikeSteveRitter) January 3, 2019
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