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Yes we know some players with NTCs get traded. We dont know how many dont get traded because of them. We do know they can reduce the value you receive in trade (see Stanton). I think even if they can be overcome or bought out that they are an impedament. Would anyone really seriously talk trade for a player with a ntc without being sure they would waive it? Would any team want to talk to a player about waiving his ntc unless they were sure they were going to trade him?
I am not really into a generic NTC discussion, but for the examples mentioned, here are my opinions:
Stanton: I agree. Any team that gives an NTC as part of a 13-year extension is making a mistake. Good to keep that in mind for the next time the Cards consider a deal like that.
Fowler and Cecil: Irrelevant. This is not their issue. (see my earlier post)
Miller: Insignificant. Given his extensive strong track record, if he has a bad year one, they will try again in year two, especially given his perceived external value would be down. If he still has trouble in year two, they pay the $2.5 MM to avoid year three. (Plus his reputation as a great clubhouse guy precedes him, so a Leake-kind of mismatch seems unlikely.)
The Cardinals know all the factors and make their risk assessment. If they decide they are willing to include an NTC, why should it bother us? We have no idea the tradeoffs made during the negotiations and whether or not this was a requirement by the player to get the deal done.
I don’t blame you for being skeptical, NJ.
But with the Cards surrendering a first round draft pick for Holland, plus half a million in international bonus money, they effectively paid perhaps $25-30M for that single season of pestilence. So at least the risk with Miller is much less, on a per year basis.Per the Fangraphs form charts, the Cards just went from a rotten 24th in relief pitching to a mediocre 17th. With an additional arm, just a very-good-but-not-great acquisition — like Joakim Soria, for example — they can be on the cusp of the top 10. (Will Smith, if you’re curious and I’m sure you are, would vault the Cards all the way to 7th.)
So get to it, Mo!
“Those rankings surely do not include Reyes or Hudson.”
The rankings do include Hudson, but they do not include Alex Reyes. (One failing of projection models is that they do not — as far as I know — take into account an extreme groundball pitcher like Dakota Hudson. They see his miniscule HR rate as largely luck rather than talent.)
“Joakim Soria has been signed by the A’s.
I would be all in on a Will Smith trade though!”Thanks for the Soria update, gscott. I need to be more attentive. (And someone should tell Fangraphs.)
There are a few trade targets who could also offer Soria type production. Guys I’ve probably harped on too much already, like Mychal Givens, Joe Jimenez, Drew Steckenrider, Andrew Chafin, Yoan Lopez, and of course Taylor Rogers. Jace Fry and Jose Leclerc look real interesting as well.I find it hard to believe that NO team would take a reasonable trade offer for ANY of the aforementioned eight relievers — especially if the Cards were willing to take on a bad contract in the bargain. Like Trumbo, Cobb, etc..
All I want for Christmas is the Birds to be above average or better across the board. Hitting, fielding, rotation, bullpen. And just one more very good reliever will do it. C’mon, Mo Kringle!
Some may recognize Jeff Ellis as Scout’s national prospect analyst. He began by writing for the Indians site. Here is his take:
Sneaky team that no one mentions that makes a lot for sense is the Cardinals. Miller was a great sign and fills a big weakness. They have so much depth
— Jeffmlbdraft (@jeffMLBdraft) December 21, 2018
No one knows if this deal will work out or not. With that said, I absolutely love this deal. Miller was my top choice to add as far as relievers go. Imagine how much money he would of got exactly one year ago. If his physical looks good, you got to roll the dice for that amount of money.
if his physical looks good, you got to roll the dice for that amount of money.
Except the Cardinals also told everyone Reyes looked good (when they knew he had a sprain), and managed a trade for Ozuna when they knew he was damaged goods.
Since some of the Sabernerd crowd on a couple of other sites and here dislike the Miller signing that is a big thumbs up for me.
I like the signing because it isn’t super expensive,he has been very good to solid in the pen and he seems willing to fill whatever role that is needed.In the end I ask is he better than any lefty in the pen…easy answer ..hell yes.
I think Miller is risky given the milage on his arm but the upside is there if he returns to pre 2018 form. Of course relying on the Cardinals medical staff always seems risky.
As Bw52 notes, there is a core of folks who believe no team should spend on relief. Doesn’t really matter who.
My take is that Miller has been a 2.4 WAR player on average prior to 2018 and the Cards picked up those wins relatively cheaply – if he is healthy. In fact, his net impact may be greater since theoretically, he would replace one of the negative WAR pitchers in the 2018 pen.
On health, I found it interesting that Miller went to an independent doctor, the Mets’ team physician, to conduct his exam recently, which indicated he is past his physical ailments. Over time, it seems that more and more players are taking their own path for non-routine medical care. Miller could be one of them.
Seeking 3rd party health care to get better is one thing. Seeking a 3rd party to declare you healthy is another. In fact, it could lead you to seek out the dr. least capable of finding your ailment!
Generally, I guess anything is possible. In this specific case, however, Miller went to Dr. David Altchek, who is a very famous physician, especially for shoulders. He is also the Mets’ team surgeon, so he has experience with baseball players specifically.
“Dr. David Altchek is an Attending Orthopedic Surgeon and Co-Chief Emeritus in the Sports Medicine & Shoulder Service at Hospital for Special Surgery.”
If you look him up, you’ll see he is very accomplished in his field.
I would like them to keep going and get Strickland. I think he will bounce back. And could be signed for something similar to Gregerson, probably 2 years, plus 7 or 8 million.
Cardinals Had Interest In Brad Hand https://t.co/FFal6zn51L
— Tim Dierkes (@mlbtrcardinals) December 23, 2018
Yes I think Goold mentioned this a couple of days ago. I’m glad the FO checked in on Hand first. He would have been the ultimate reliever for us but no doubt the asking price was astronomical. Miller isn’t a bad backup plan though.
I wonder if Kelly could have fetched Hand in the first trade? The Padres took Francisco Mejia for him last summer.
I’m guessing that ‘high asking price’ means Flaherty or O’Neill as part of a package for Hand, or any other top tier player. Now that the Cardinals have fulfilled their most pressing needs, they can be the ones with the high asking price……. for Jose Martinez. DH is the highest paid position player in baseball, and JMart is inexpensive and controllable.
It seems J Martinez hasn’t drawn as much interest as the Cards figured. I would have thought he would make a perfect DH. I thought when Judge was injured toward the end of the season, the Yankees would trade for him, instead they picked up Voit.
to me, i don’t really like the miller trade. yea if he returns to form, it seems great. but that isn’t what normally happens. its best to look at what the guy did the year before which in this case was not that great. but its what the cards do. lets not spend this money on a good to great up and coming reliever, lets pay less money for a broken one and hope and pray that time reverses. if you pay the money and get the stud guy, then management and the fans can blame the player. if you do like the cards do and get the old and or broken guys, then blame falls on management and the fans who don’t want them to spend all that excess money they have. im not gonna blame miller for trying to get what he can.
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