Consolidated Prospect Rankings

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  • #125637
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    First off, very much appreciate Brian’s consolidated rankings article in the prospect series. Great read that I’ll link here so you don’t have to look for it if you missed it.
    TCN Consolidated Rankings Top 10

    For those that are hard up for prospect news and info I have been compiling a spreadsheet the last few years that expands on this idea. I compiled a few more lists. Some are more oriented on tools and scouting while some focus on fantasy value and I like that it gives a mix of talent and projected performance to give a balance. So the lists I used: MLB.com/TCN/FG/The Athletic (Law)/Birds on the Black (If you haven’t read through Kyle Reis’ Dirty Thirty Five your missing some quality reading)/BBHQ/Baseball America/Baseball Prospectus/Prospect 1500/Prospect 360/Prospects Live/Fan Trax (still haven’t put out their Cardinals list but used their 7 in the top 200)/Stl Today/Roto Pro.
    I took the average divided by the number of lists they were on to give a more complete list of where people rank and implied rankings if a sight had a just missed or other prospects list. Changes a few of the rankings outside the Top 20 but only affects Angel Rondon inside the Top 20. I also used the MLB.com criteria for prospects (to be best of my knowledge) so a few guys like Lane Thomas, Tyler Oneil and others were on some of these lists but I left them off. Anyways, just a fun experiment. Please keep in mind there are lies, damn lies and statistics and this is my interpolation of the raw data.

    So first a couple of observations. None of these will surprise you.:
    -89 Cardinals Farmhands were listed is some form or fashion on these lists.
    -Not as top heavy as past couple of years, but I think that is skewed by the players who exhausted their prospect status clogging up AAA.
    -There is a very clear top tier and after that it gets dicey

    Without further ado here is the Top 50 Consolidated List by my calculations (Avg Rnk / # of lists ranked on). Lower is better obviously. Let me know what comments you have.
    1. Dylan Carlson .08095
    2. Nolan Gorman .15238
    3. Matthew Liberatore .20476
    4. Andrew Knizner .43056
    5. Ivan Herrera .43956
    6. Zack Thompson .46154
    7. Elehuris Montero .51531
    8. Genesis Cabrera .70833
    9. Jhon Torres .76923
    10. Junior Fernandez .95041
    11. Johan Oviedo 1.05455
    12. Trejyn Fletcher 1.18056
    13. Malcom Nunez 1.29752
    14. Angel Rondon 1.3719
    15. Justin Williams 1.38843
    16. Jake Woodford 1.6
    17. Kodi Whitley 1.65455
    18. Edmundo Sosa 1.87645
    19. Tony Locey 1.97
    20. Mateo Gil 2.2963
    21. Luken Baker 2.32099
    22. Julio Rodriguez 2.39506
    23. Griffin Roberts 2.65625
    24. Andre Pallante 3.01563
    25. Alvaro Seijas 3.20313
    26. Seth Elledge 4
    27. Patrick Romeri 4.88889
    28. Conner Capel 5.12
    29. Pedro Pages 5.47222
    30. Juan Yepez 5.48
    31. Justin Toerner 7.375
    32. Delvin Perez 8
    33. Connor Jones 8.625
    34. Brendan Donovan 8.875
    35. Evan Kruczynski 9.3125
    36. Lars Nootbar 9.5625
    37. Jack Ralston 9.66667
    38. Steven Gingery 10
    39. John Nogowski 10.6667
    40. Roel Ramirez 11.75
    41. Rangel Ravelo 12
    42. Edgar Escobar 12.3333
    43. Logan Gragg 12.7778
    44. Kramer Robertson 13
    45. Bryan Dobzanski 13.4444
    46. Brady Whalen 14.2222
    47. Terry Fuller 14.8889
    48. Tommy Parsons 15
    48. Austin Warner 15
    50. Yariel Gonzalez 15.1111

    Rest of those mentioned in order:

    Francisco Justo/Max Schrock/Edgardo Rodriguez/Ramon Mendoza/Nick Dunn/Evan Mendoza/Chandler Redmond/Michael YaSenka/Leandro Cedeno/Jonatan Machado/Ricardo Sanchez/Adanson Cruz/Alex Fagalde/Jesus Cruz/Patrick Dayton/Rodard Avelino/Joerlin De Los Santos/Michael Baird/Nathanael Heredia/Jose Godoy/Yordy Richard/Luis Tena/Jeffry Abreu/Leonardo Tavaras/Tyler Statler/Franklin Soto/Albert Inoa/Walker Robbins/Mitchell Osnowitz/Todd Lott/Tyler Reichenborn/Irving Lopez/Jacob Patterson/Ludwin Jimenez/Scott Hurst/Darlin Moquete/Angel Cuenca/Anthony Shew/Luis Ortiz

    #125659
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Interesting work. The weights are especially illustrative.

    #125664
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    gren!…. Thanks for compiling this list. It would be hard to argue since it is not one man’s opinion but a pretty good number of assessments.

    Question: since some outlets give fewer than 50 prospects (i.e. MLB) how do you give a rating for those left off? 31-50?

    #125667
    bccran
    Participant

    Any surprises?

    Seems to me that Schrock, E. Mendoza, Machado, Fagalde, Hurst, and Patterson are rated a little low. And Ravelo at #41 behind Gil, Baker, Romeri, Capel, Toerner, and Nootbar? Hmmm.

    #125669
    BlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Free

    Does anyone have the Baseball Prospectus top 10 for the Cardinals? I haven’t seen them anywhere.

    #125673
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    Nyquist – I only used the ratings that were there. So if they only had 7 (Goold), I only used 7. If they mentioned 50 plus (TCN) I used them all. For Just Missed prospects I added them at the end i.e. if the list is a top 30 with a just missed I added them all at #31. Not a perfect system obviously, but its a great way to kill time while standing duty. As I said it’s lies, damn lies and statistics. To me dividing their average allowed me to not skew the numbers too much with one service’s high or low ranking and further break out those who are listed by more services.

    #125674
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    BHC it’s on their site as of January. It’s behind their paywall with pretty good write ups for each prospect but here’s the list:
    Carlson/Gorman/Liberatore/Thompson/Herrera/Knizner/Oviedo/Fletcher/Whitley/Montero
    Next 10: Gil/Fernandez/Williams/Cabrera/Torres/Baker/Locey/Woodford/Rondon/Seijas

    #125675
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    BCCRAN
    Surprises?
    -There are a lot of relievers rated high for a bunch of services that say they discount relievers in their rankings. I think it shows the increasing importance of the bullpen in the game.
    -Even with a good secondary numbers most people are down on Woodford.
    -Fuller jumps way up the list when you account for just missed and honorable mentions. There are a few people who think he really takes off this year.

    As for the guys you mentioned they are further down because they were on fewer lists. Particularly Ravelo whom some left off for various reasons. The one thing I haven’t figured out how to correct for with this list is different services using different criteria for who is and isn’t a prospect.
    I may edit the post to put on a little more information.

    #125677
    bccran
    Participant

    That one impressive showing I think raised Woodford’s stock.
    He mowed down some outstanding hitters.

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