2020 MLB Draft

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Viewing 25 posts - 101 through 125 (of 965 total)
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  • #127589
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    bcc… if #10 (MiLB site) Kjerstad could falls into our spot is a longshot. The next college OF is ranked #38.

    The candidates are top heavy with Ps. Most likely our #1 pick will be a college pitcher from #18 on…. a Crochet or Mlodzinski type guy. Its a good chance that I’ll be wrong.

    #127600
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I have seen Kjerstad play in person many times. He is a beast with the bat. He reminds me of a young JD Drew.

    #127630
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    #127638
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    Being a TN boy (who is sincerely disappointed to be losing Johnson City) I’m hoping Garrett Crochet falls to the Cards. I mean he’s basically the same thing they drafted last year with a better FB (College lefty with a slight injury history) so that might not be what they are looking to draft. I think they have done a good job the last few years identifying prospects with a great deal of value in the first round.

    #127639
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    Austin Martin and Garrett Mitchell will most likely be gone before we pick at #21, but I’d like to see the Cards pick one of these 6 guys in the first 5 rounds.

    Heston Kjerstad – Arkansas
    Zach DeLoach – Texas A&M
    Tyler Gentry – U. of Alabama
    Alerick Soularie – U. of Tennessee
    Parker Chavers – Coastal Carolina
    Trevor Hauver – Arizona State

    All outfielders with big bats, and all rank in the Top 150 draft prospects.

    I like Alerick Soulaire (TN bias aside). He’s more hard line drive than over the fence pop, but that is there in college as well. Good (not great) defense but does have a serviceable arm for right to my eye. Most have him pegged as a left fielder and has played second base at TN.

    Parker Chavers is a guy that I’ve read could slide due to injury that would be a big bat at a discount, so who doesn’t love that!

    #127814
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    More trouble… The detail suggests MLB tried to cut back further on this year’s draft, but the MLBPA disagreed, meaning they could just fall back to the revised plans already agreed to earlier.

    #127854
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    This is referring to the recent revision proposal for the 2020 draft that the Union shot down.

    #127884
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    I think that there will be more interest by baseball team followers and even the casuals in this year’s draft. After all it will be something baseball. Up to now the MLB draft meant little to most because let’s face it even the highest picks won’t be making an impact for at least a few years. Maybe some baseball fans will get into this year’s selections because of the lack of other news and actually follow those selected in the top rounds and thus get a better understanding what MiLB is all about,

    June 10th will fall way short of the NFL-NBA and NHL drafts because in those sports there is a very good chance that the top draftees will be playing in their respective leagues in short order. The ’20 NFL draft got a record TV audience and the MLB will no doubt follow suit.

    #127887
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    MLB does such a mediocre job with its drafts. At best only rounds 1-2 are televised. At least this year, they were going to hold it in Omaha and maybe actually put some production into to it and publicize it. Now, that is all shot.

    At this point, we don’t even know how many rounds there will be and how much money teams will have to spend. All we know for sure is that both will be down from prior years. Understandably, revenues are declining this year so MLB is trying to reduce expenditures and the number of players taken. My best guess today is just five rounds.

    Maybe I am too close to it, but my excitement level is lower than usual for this draft. We may not even get to see these new players play in 2020.

    On the positive side, the Cardinals have two extra picks, so will make a total of seven in the first five rounds, with about $7.9 MM to spend on them (unless there are further cuts ahead). So some good new talent should be coming in.

    P.S. The difference with other sports as I see it is that the drafted players in the NFL and NBA will start playing in the big leagues right away. By definition, MLB is different, which is one reason there is far less interest in its drafts. This year’s MLB draftees are still multiple years away from being on the radar screens of most fans (and of the Union).

    #127948
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    This may have been covered earlier but am I correct in saying that when it comes to bonuses this year MLB is only obligated to pay $100K, with the remainder due in 2021 and 2022? If that is the case then I view that as a bigger problem than reducing the number of rounds. It is very likely that many college juniors and high school seniors will opt to play college baseball and wait for the bonus structure to go back to normal before opting for MLB.

    This is going to make drafting even trickier than normal and it may not be a good year to have multiple early round draft picks since much of the high end talent may not be available. This is not good news for the Cardinals.

    #127958
    LACardFan
    Participant

    Free

    Yes, that is correct.

    I don’t know why it would impact college juniors. Think about it – many colleges are operating online now. You can accept the $100k and continue to work on your degree remotely. You make more taking the $100k than going back to school.

    High school seniors – I would expect a huge reduction in the amount of high school players taken this year.

    I don’t think it impacts the Cardinals at all. They presumably always get a feel for how signable a player is before they draft him, and that is one of the few things teams are allowed to do right now. Perhaps they lean more towards college players than HS players due to signability – but this is a good year for college pitchers, and as the saying goes, you can never have enough pitchers…

    #127963
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Interesting dynamics for sure. I think I would jump now if I could. While the player doesn’t get all the money now, he will get it all soon enough. If he is good enough to get top five-round money in 2020, my guess is he will take it.

    Further, based on down revenue across MLB in 2020, who is to say what will happen next year? If MLB wants to save money in 2021, they would have two main choices. Cut the rounds and/or cut the individual bonuses.

    #127964
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    My thought is since we know that milb players make next to nothing it would be more difficult to bounce around the minors next year with $100K in your pocket than say $750K, therefore, some college juniors may choose to wait. Granted, they would eventually get all of their bonus but they would have to wait for it.

    VEB ran an article about this subject and I acknowledge that I took my example from their article.

    https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/5/3/21212490/2020-draft-preview-no-4-some-basic-considerations-of-this-years-reality

    #127965
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    You are assuming next year will be no worse. I would not be one bit comfortable with that, personally.

    #127967
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Just read the VEB article. If any organization really drafts a first-rounder but then cannot sign him, then either the player screwed them or they did not do their homework. Any team worth its salt is going to have the scout sit down with the player ahead of time and conduct a signability assessment. So when he is taken, the team will already have a good idea how much money it would take to sign him. The players know the special rules this year so there are no surprises.

    P.S. To be clear, I agree that fewer high schoolers will probably be selected. I just don’t expect more wasted picks. I also highly question whether getting the same total amount of money spread over two years instead of one is going to matter to the vast majority of draftees.

    P.S.2. College juniors have leverage. College seniors have none. Even before, seniors have always gotten very low bonuses. I cannot see that changing. Why should it? MLB has the seniors over a barrel – unless the “Dream League” pays really well! 😉

    #127970
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I hope you are right Brian. There is no doubt that good organizations do their homework on signability before making a selection, like the Cardinals did with Trejyn Fletcher. My concern was with the potential of the talent pool being thinned due to more players opting for college. The Cardinals made some good decisions to put themselves in a position to have multiple early round selections. It would be a shame for that hard work to be minimized but hopefully that won’t be the case.

    #127971
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t know if my point of view will be proven to be right or wrong, but I think my logic is sound.

    I get that this year is different in many ways, but for any individual in the first 5-10 rounds, the basics are the same. Everyone knows the slot values and everyone knows how and when the players will be paid.

    In the last dozen years (as far back as I care to check), the Cards could not sign one player in the first 10 rounds – third rounder Trevor Megill in 2014. I just don’t think the signability aspect for the players taken is going be significantly different in 2020.

    #127972
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Let me ask the question this way. Is the issue really signability or is it available talent? While the two issues are related I perceive them to be somewhat separate. The Cardinals might end up signing all five of their early round picks, (5 of the top 100), but in doing so they may have to pass on talent they normally would have taken because they thought that player wasn’t going to sign. If too many players fall into that category then the overall talent level of the 2020 draft could be much less than in other years.

    Again, this concern may turn out to be nothing but I tend to agree with the idea that MLB’s attempt at short term cost savings may have some unintended consequences.

    #127974
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    To follow up on your example, let’s say 10 of the top 100 who would have signed before instead decide to go to college (or return to college) because of the situation in 2020. So then, the Cards would sign five of the top 110 players instead of 5 of the top 100. Would that difference really be significant? And the per-player impact would certainly not be any more significant for one team vs. any other. They are all pulling from the same talent pool.

    #127975
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    On the “unintended consequences” point, I firmly believe MLB WANTS to draft fewer high schoolers. They want colleges to do more of the player development for them as occurs in other sports. They believe they can be more efficient in player development than they had been, which is a big reason they are pushing cutting 42 teams and 1200 minor leaguers. Having fewer teams and drafting fewer players go hand in hand.

    #127977
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I agree that all 30 teams will be drafting out of the same talent pool but that talent pool may be smaller than in other years. My point is that this is a potentially huge opportunity for the Cardinals to restock their farm system with 5 of the top 100 picks and 2020 may turn out to be the wrong year to have extra picks. If it turns out to be 5 out of the top 110 then I agree that won’t be a big hit but hopefully it won’t be more significant than that.

    And I agree with your reasoning that with fewer milb teams there will be more players developing at the college level.

    #127978
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I would agree that from this year forward, the incentives for high school players to sign will remain less than in the past. Since we cannot go back in time, my general assertion is that 5 of the top 100 this year is probably going to be no better or worse than 5 of the top 100 next year or in 2022. The environment has changed forever (or at least until they decide to change the rules again).

    P.S. Really good discussion!

    #128000
    LACardFan
    Participant

    Free

    I firmly believe MLB WANTS to draft fewer high schoolers. They want colleges to do more of the player development for them as occurs in other sports.

    I hadn’t thought of that, but it makes total sense.

    #128001
    bccran
    Participant

    Is offering a draftee payment for his college education still going to be an incentive for a high schooler to sign?

    #128004
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Unknown, bccran. That seems to be another lever MLB teams could pull (or not pull) as they choose. But my gut tells me that if there is a high schooler they really want, they would also want to be able to continue to offer college reimbursement to sweeten the deal.

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