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Mayo’s mew mock out today has us taking Carmen Mlodzinski.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-first-round-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
BTW, he has Soderstrom going 15 to the Phils. good. don’t want him available at 21
Personally I think unless somebody like Zac Veen, Austin Hendrick, Robert Hassell, or maybe Ed Howard falls, it will come down to the best college pitcher available. I’m thinking they lean right this year so I’m going with Cade Cavelli or Cole Wilcox as they have the size the Cards seem to like overall.
After that I think it might be a good year to grab a signability risk to either get a value pick this year or an extra pick next year in what should be a deep draft (if a lot of these guys go JC to get back in the draft next year like people are predicting). If there is no MiLB season, then losing a high pick this year with the prospect of an extra one next year would be worth considering.
Probably not a new or original idea, but seems like a good time to try it, especially if someone you like falls.
Another reason for what is basically deferring a pick to next year is to avoid paying the signing bonus this year. Even though they are only on the hook for $100K max per pick in 2020, some owners may be making this a bigger deal than others.
In the first financial proposal, the owners reportedly included the entire signing bonuses as 2020 expense. They were roundly criticized for this, as it suggested to some that the owners were being “creative” with their accounting to show and share less profit with the MLB players. But maybe they have to take it as future liability.
Anyway, “wait until next year” strategy can backfire if the rules change next year. A year ago, we had no idea what was coming in 2020.
My guess is there are few scouting directors who don’t want to draft as many players as they can as soon as they can. They prepared for 40 rounds and have been compressed to only five. Hard for me to believe some would be content with taking just three and deferring two, for example. To me, such a strategy feels more money-driven than talent-driven. But everyone has a boss.
I would like the Cardinals to select Luke Little with either the #63 or #70 pick in the upcoming draft. PerfectGame’s national scouting director Brian Sakowski said this about Little who has been timed recently at 105mph on his FB. Luke Little, LHP: “Right away, is probably the best closer in college baseball. I know Luke wants to start. I know San Jacinto wanted him to start. I don’t think he’s a starter, but I look at that more at the pro level. I would love to see what Skylar Meade could do with that guy. your upside is Zack Thompson. Pick a first-round lefty of the first few years that dominated: Zack Thompson or (Nick) Lodolo. It’s that. That’s the upside. I think the reality is he comes in and is a really good closer. The downside is maybe he doesn’t throw enough strikes to be trusted. I don’t think that’ll happen, but that’s a risk. He’s an impactful talent. He’s an impactful, rare ability guy that would immediately make the team better. Yeah, you want to get that to campus. I can’t sit here with any certainty he’d be Andrew Miller.” He is a 6’8″ lefty.
No Cardinals talk in yesterday’s chat with Carlos Collazo from BA, but I did find his first answer very interesting.
Basically, because teams are not out scouting right now, other teams’ scouts can’t see which players their competition are watching. So there are fewer rumors about what teams are thinking of doing (because no one starts rumors about their own guys). As a result, mocks are all over the place. Makes sense when you think about it.
He also says he has heard about Cavelli being a top 10 guy, but considers him a risky pick there, calling his fastball more hittable than his velocity would suggest.
I was turned off by his answer to a reader asking him if BA would share the names of players’ advisors (agents) in their draft database. The reader wants to know which guys are Boras clients. Collazo shut him down, saying he does not know why anyone would need to know that before the draft. It read to me like they don’t want to share that info, which is their right. But at least be honest about it.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-prospects-chat-5212020/
All good points Brian, and banking on the future is really just deferring risk, however I think with the unpredictability of this year and the chance of some big names going to JC resetting for next year a possibility it just seems like a better year than most to take a risk on high value in the 2nd or 3rd round. Also, keep an eye on a guy like Landon Knack, a late bloomer from my alma mater who has more value than a normal 5th year SR who might give them the ability to squeeze out a little more money to take a risk with a Compensatory pick. I didn’t even think about it from an organizational money perspective. Guess I’ll never be an exec.
Brian or anyone with ESPN Insider subscription…ESPN put out a new 1st draft prediction today. Could you please say what he had the Cardinals taking?
ESPN has the Cardinals going with Cavalli.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
The Cards are still casting a wide net here, but their preferred type of pitcher is athletic with arm speed, and Cavalli has the most of both of those traits among the college arms still on the board. Foscue and Soderstrom both have been tied to St. Louis but aren’t available in this scenario.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29216982/kiley-mcdaniel-2020-mlb-mock-draft-20
It’s going to be a loss missing rounds #6-40, but practically speaking, most future major leaguers probably are drafted in the first 5 rounds.
I think the greater loss is going to be missing out on seeing the new draftees play minor league ball and dream on what they may become.
With the Appy and NYP leagues disappearing, this is likely to just be a feeling we will have to deal with going forward. Guys who are too advanced for the GCL and not good enough for low A will be stuck in limbo. Or perhaps the GCL will become a higher end league and the lower class (younger or more raw) players will just be in instructs for the year.
bccran said:
It’s going to be a loss missing rounds #6-40, but practically speaking, most future major leaguers probably are drafted in the first 5 rounds.
Most? Maybe, but remember all the international players, too. Even for US players, rounds 1-5 are clearly not close to all by any stretch. This is about saving money, not improving the game.
Among current Cardinals drafted after the fifth:
Brebbia
Gant
Mikolas
Ponce de Leon
Webb
Whitley
Knizner
Carpenter
Edman (gasp!!!!!)
Fowler
RaveloHow would the Cardinals look without these guys? Then multiply that by 30 teams.
The good news, if there is any, is that MLB is expected to have more rounds in 2021, but how many could depend on how the owners are feeling about their money next year. And that is not looking great right now… And to make it worse, this is an area where the MLBPA will gladly give ground to protect their own benefits.
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