- This topic has 302 replies, 29 voices, and was last updated 1 week, 6 days ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Sometimes I like players whom metrics aren’t that kind to. You don’t have to base your Fandom on them. Anyone can can identify superstar players without the use of metrics. I have trouble understanding the big conflict. Either use them or don’t. But don’t get mad when you don’t understand what everyone is talking about. Or why some players who don’t have gaudy hr rbi and ba totals are still considered good. Metrics are the language used to discuss the game today by most journalists and announcers. Lots of fans have adapted to it. Literally all teams use metrics heavily to evaluate prospects . And it’s not going away.
If you exclude Wetherholt’s hot start, in other words exclude April, his OPS+ for the season is below 100. Below average in other words. So if you are talking JJ, at the least you have to not exclude April, and better yet, find some other stat to talk about. But obviously, unless he turns it around, the stat shuffle will only prop up the narrative so long. So we do hope he turns it around, but we should recognize that April to now is a long time to be producing below league average.
Some use stats that reflect total contribution. Others only focus on offense because the numbers are simple to track. Last I checked, it isn’t called “Offensive Rookie of the Year”.
I bet there are folks here who are still upset that Templeton was traded away for Ozzie.
This brings up an opportunity to discuss the inter workings of WAR.
As BB points out, JJ is a 3% below league average hitter since May 1. Similarly, Ivan Herrera is 1% below league average in that same timeframe. But here’s where it gets interesting and some of you aren’t going to like it. Wetherholt’s 3% below league average is providing him positive WAR value. Not tons of positive value, but some. However for Herrera, his 1% below league average is providing him negative WAR value. Why is that? It’s because of the position that they play. WAR recognizes that 2B is a far more demanding position than mostly DH and part-time catcher and that second basemen typically hit far worse than your average DH. Therefore, it credits them more value when they hit close to average. Therefore, a roughly league average hitting second baseman who runs the bases well and plays stellar defense at that demanding position is considered extremely valuable, which is why JJ is listed as one of the best players in baseball.
When is the last time a league average offense producer won any recognition? Player of the day, of the week, month, year. Recognized by TCN, by the Cardinals, by MLB, by the various leagues up and down the system. A guy goes 1 for 4 with a single he’s not winning Brian’s Player of the Day if he walked on water to get to the park. The only reason we are even talking about it is because JJ’s production at the plaate has been lackluster so we have to talk about something else.
League average is different from rookie average. Consider the relevant population. We are not talking about MVP here.
I give credit to the award voters for being more enlightened about a player’s overall contribution. Others will keep the blinders on as it suits their narrower view of a world that has changed.
I do not select the minor league Players of the Day. Marilyn and Michael do, which by the way, has absolutely nothing to do with NL Rookie of the Year.
All I look for is meaningful conversation. If your mind is shut like a trap against metrics, there’s nothing to talk about. I still believe in the eye test as a tool. In reality, Bling is citing metrics in why he isn’t buying into JJ as a better than average player. If I hadn’t watched nearly every inning this year, and only had his stats to rely on, I would say the same. But he is a marvelous talent and I love watching him play. Same with Winn. I love the scouting grades. That’s a numerical grade assigned to a prospects skills. But it’s still dependent on human judgements. You don’t have to sell out to one method of evaluation and completely ignore the other.
Well, the Rookie of the Year award is voted on by the BBWAA, that has some voters who refuse to leave the 20th century and still rely on the old school stats. So metrics may not be the basis for their votes.
I personally believe the metrics are much more fair for every player because it gives value for defense which is just as important as offense, at least in a significant number of eyes. A more well rounded stat like WAR, for instance, takes all aspects of the game into account.
Wetherholt won’t end the season with anywhere near to the sort of numbers as the last Cardinal to be awarded the NL ROY, but he’s the odds on favorite to take home the ’26 award.
It’s tough to put a number on the impact JJ has made to this year’s team, but it is significant. As KCB said, you can see the importance of his presence when watching the games. Both him and Winn are extremely valuable, probably saving anywhere from 2 to 5 outs per game at times. And JJ is no slack on offense either.
That quick bat is going to keep him improving and his traditional stat line will show it in coming years.
Kind of funny – I flew home from Chicago and the National Sports Collectors Convention on Saturday. I am in the train at Denver International that takes you from the concourse to the main terminal, and a young girl maybe 13 or so had a JJ Wetherholt t-shirt on. 😁 It was real crowded and I did not get a chance to talk to her, but thought it cool that she was a Wetherholt fan.
If they voted today JJ would come in 2nd to Stewart…….and I don’t think the vote would be all that close.
If they voted today JJ would come in 2nd to Stewart…….and I don’t think the vote would be all that close.
If you are that sure you should lay a hefty wager. The betting odds are around -160 for JJ +130 for Sal
With those kind of odds one would be crazy not to plop down some benjamins on Sal prevailing, KeepComingBack. One problem though…….I never bet against our Birds. Mark my words, unless JJ really gets rolling big time offensively, or Sal tanks, RoY honors are Stewart’s.
I get that war values defense, baserunning, and such. Thats fine but i can value all that outside of the stat. Ive given jj credit for being a really good defensive second baseman. Its why i can say say edmonds is a hall of famer vs those other cfs though great on their own but edmonds in ways effected tbe game because of his ability to play in and still catch everything in the field of play and then some.defense matters but i dont consider jj ozzie on defense, hes great though. But hitting the ball and hitting it where they arent stil matters to me more than all the other stuff. I dont watch enough baseball overall enough to judge myself anymore who should win awards but if i was a voter i would def watch more cause i believe in the eyes more than i believe in some metrics on a sheet of paper or screen. War may give the guy more ctedit for something than i would vs another player at a position. Other than the dh thing which im not a fan of i dont like trying to value on position over another. I hated first base and never willingly played there. To me it requires good defense as well as other places.
Yeah, Pugs, there’s no denying he’s piecing together a nice rookie season. Those 24 taters and a NL leading 85 RBI’s would be hard for Wetherholt to overcome if the fellas who check the ballots voted today.
I dont watch enough baseball overall enough to judge myself anymore who should win awards
Some years ago I could tell you a little bit about every single major league player because I had seen them all and than pored over their stats in The Sporting News. The day the new copy showed up each month was like Christmas. Today I watch all the Cardinals games but very little else. When I start hearing about a particular player, I check out his stats. It gives me some idea of why I’m hearing about him. But you still need to get your eyes on him to really appreciate his talents. BTW Willie McGee is my all time favorite player. I take a lot of things into consideration when I say that. I loved the player and the person.
Yeah KCB, my parents got me a yearly subscription to TSN for my birthday every year from around age 15 to 20 or so. I poured over that thing each week as well. Plus I played a lot of APBA back in the day so I knew every team’ lineup and had a good idea of their strengths and weaknesses.
And on another note, I just met Willie McGee last Friday. Had him sign a 1984 Topps card at the National Sports Collectors Convention. Thanked him for his years as a Cardinal and giving us so many thrills.
Willie in private is exactly like he is in person. Quiet and down to earth. I was in minor league camp for two months and watched Willie’s approach every day. He was usually off to the side a bit, always watching. He would then pick his spot to engage a player 1-1.
Looking at the guys numbers and the guy clearly has more rbis and quite a few more homers. Noe you can point out jj is a leadoff so less rbi opprtunities but you cant use that if you are going to give credit for walking to get on base for others as a leadoff hitter. No one forced the cardinals to lead him off. If sal gets a hundred rbis, its not even a question if it is even now. Jj is a really good player regardless.
Your opinion and that of the voters may not be the same. It is certainly not the same as the oddsmakers. Per ESPN, the current odds are:
JJ -160
Stewart +130This came from ESPN’s awards tracker that they update daily.
Stewart will be hard to beat but, in my estimation, Wetherholt has 3 things that will factor in to his advantage which are, his nice glove at a middle IF position, season long placement at possibly the most important hitting slot and, maybe most important of all, he leads his team with 72 runs scored. With that said, regardless of any odds, 30 HR’s and 100 RBI’s seems almost insurmountable to me and it looks like Stewart has a good chance to achieve both of those milestones. In any case, it looks like the Cardinals have a nice 2B’man for a while.
I’m not sure why everyone is acting like Stewart has had a significantly better offensive year. He has more HRs and RBIs, but he plays in a little league park and his wRC+ is only 6 points higher than Wetherholt’s who has been far superior with the glove at a more valuable position while not being a liability on the basepaths like Stewart.
Well brian you are probably right. Most of these voters prob rely on these fancy metrics like wins over replacement and such.Most of these voters if they were called out to a ballfield and had to evaluate a 100 kids just on eyesight alone would prob be lost. I dont care who wins it,if jj wins thats fine. Doesnt do me any good. But the numbers themselves tell the story. I dont get into choosing between positions cause to every position on the field is as important as the other. I also dont get into the wins above replacement thing cause i believe thats an arbitrary stat. But again, kudos to whoever wins it.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.