- This topic has 260 replies, 29 voices, and was last updated 1 hour, 3 minutes ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Sometimes I like players whom metrics aren’t that kind to. You don’t have to base your Fandom on them. Anyone can can identify superstar players without the use of metrics. I have trouble understanding the big conflict. Either use them or don’t. But don’t get mad when you don’t understand what everyone is talking about. Or why some players who don’t have gaudy hr rbi and ba totals are still considered good. Metrics are the language used to discuss the game today by most journalists and announcers. Lots of fans have adapted to it. Literally all teams use metrics heavily to evaluate prospects . And it’s not going away.
If you exclude Wetherholt’s hot start, in other words exclude April, his OPS+ for the season is below 100. Below average in other words. So if you are talking JJ, at the least you have to not exclude April, and better yet, find some other stat to talk about. But obviously, unless he turns it around, the stat shuffle will only prop up the narrative so long. So we do hope he turns it around, but we should recognize that April to now is a long time to be producing below league average.
Some use stats that reflect total contribution. Others only focus on offense because the numbers are simple to track. Last I checked, it isn’t called “Offensive Rookie of the Year”.
I bet there are folks here who are still upset that Templeton was traded away for Ozzie.
This brings up an opportunity to discuss the inter workings of WAR.
As BB points out, JJ is a 3% below league average hitter since May 1. Similarly, Ivan Herrera is 1% below league average in that same timeframe. But here’s where it gets interesting and some of you aren’t going to like it. Wetherholt’s 3% below league average is providing him positive WAR value. Not tons of positive value, but some. However for Herrera, his 1% below league average is providing him negative WAR value. Why is that? It’s because of the position that they play. WAR recognizes that 2B is a far more demanding position than mostly DH and part-time catcher and that second basemen typically hit far worse than your average DH. Therefore, it credits them more value when they hit close to average. Therefore, a roughly league average hitting second baseman who runs the bases well and plays stellar defense at that demanding position is considered extremely valuable, which is why JJ is listed as one of the best players in baseball.
When is the last time a league average offense producer won any recognition? Player of the day, of the week, month, year. Recognized by TCN, by the Cardinals, by MLB, by the various leagues up and down the system. A guy goes 1 for 4 with a single he’s not winning Brian’s Player of the Day if he walked on water to get to the park. The only reason we are even talking about it is because JJ’s production at the plaate has been lackluster so we have to talk about something else.
League average is different from rookie average. Consider the relevant population. We are not talking about MVP here.
I give credit to the award voters for being more enlightened about a player’s overall contribution. Others will keep the blinders on as it suits their narrower view of a world that has changed.
I do not select the minor league Players of the Day. Marilyn and Michael do, which by the way, has absolutely nothing to do with NL Rookie of the Year.
All I look for is meaningful conversation. If your mind is shut like a trap against metrics, there’s nothing to talk about. I still believe in the eye test as a tool. In reality, Bling is citing metrics in why he isn’t buying into JJ as a better than average player. If I hadn’t watched nearly every inning this year, and only had his stats to rely on, I would say the same. But he is a marvelous talent and I love watching him play. Same with Winn. I love the scouting grades. That’s a numerical grade assigned to a prospects skills. But it’s still dependent on human judgements. You don’t have to sell out to one method of evaluation and completely ignore the other.
Well, the Rookie of the Year award is voted on by the BBWAA, that has some voters who refuse to leave the 20th century and still rely on the old school stats. So metrics may not be the basis for their votes.
I personally believe the metrics are much more fair for every player because it gives value for defense which is just as important as offense, at least in a significant number of eyes. A more well rounded stat like WAR, for instance, takes all aspects of the game into account.
Wetherholt won’t end the season with anywhere near to the sort of numbers as the last Cardinal to be awarded the NL ROY, but he’s the odds on favorite to take home the ’26 award.
It’s tough to put a number on the impact JJ has made to this year’s team, but it is significant. As KCB said, you can see the importance of his presence when watching the games. Both him and Winn are extremely valuable, probably saving anywhere from 2 to 5 outs per game at times. And JJ is no slack on offense either.
That quick bat is going to keep him improving and his traditional stat line will show it in coming years.
Kind of funny – I flew home from Chicago and the National Sports Collectors Convention on Saturday. I am in the train at Denver International that takes you from the concourse to the main terminal, and a young girl maybe 13 or so had a JJ Wetherholt t-shirt on. 😁 It was real crowded and I did not get a chance to talk to her, but thought it cool that she was a Wetherholt fan.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.