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how is the well dry in 2021?
There are so many more prospects already in the pipeline…2021 is what? 4 years from now…Flaherty and Weaver were both drafted in 2014..Reyes joined us at 18 in 2013……4 years and 5 with Reyes…and no one knew for sure on Weaver Flaherty or Reyes when they first came in..
not only do we have more prospects further down and even close…too many to name… but we have every draft and international signing period from now until then to find even more…and our track record is pretty darned good for finding guys pretty regularly
also…should Weaver Flaherty and Reyes pan out…to add to CMart…and even if we don’t re-sign Wacha.. how many guys do we really need in 2021? I dont bet but i think the Cards org could find another SP from their current and future farm/international in 4 yrs…to be able to slot into a #5/6-ish role
how many teams have “top” pitching prospects already aligned for 2021?
2021 is 4 years away… we have more projectable contributor prospects on the pitching side than most teams…it’s why they say our system is the envy of a lot of teams…
Seijas, Oviedo, Derian, Mendoza, Hudson, Hicks, Helsley, Woodford, Gomber, Jones, Moreno, Hernandez, OReilly, Latcham, SOto, Nicasio, Evans, etc etc etc and i am sure i have missed plenty…
If the well was dry in 2021 that would mean that we would have missed on everyone already in the system AND in every signing period AND in every draft and our last 15yrs or so has proven we dont tend to do that in one draft let alone 4 straight
There is no doubt that the Cubs if everything clicks is probably better than the rest of the division if everything clicks for them too
However, as last year showed, they are only a few poor year’s worth of players to be vulnerable to the point of losing the division to not just one team but two (as last year showed again)…their depth is suspect especially in the starting pitching…Happ and CAratini are nice young hitters that can help but outside of that what do they have that could really be impact from their system? even money-wise they obviously could make a move somehow to fix a problem, but they have a budget as much as any other team…and how much do they really want to invest before next offseason as they try to woo Harper etc.?
The non-superstar centered team the Cardinals have been working with for a few years now has produced a quality of depth that is hard to be matched (at least at the highest levels of the minors…thus MLB potential impact)
If the Cardinals lost any player they have someone ready to fill in (outside of DeJOng with all due respect to MUnoz)…Martinez’s elite level? Reyes is super high end…Ozuna? tough…but Bader and Oneill and Garcia make for intriguing options for impacting the team even without the world class power of Ozuna…even Yadi has a replacement whom is capable of impact…the 7-8th’s of the bullpen have the stuff to potentially close…and Bowman could probably do it too…
Should the Cubs lose Darvish or Lester…they turn to Montgomery? and Butler? maybe Smyly if he is ever healthy? Rizzo and Bryant are tent poles with the drop off in production from their backups being very steep…Contreras has Caratini which seems ok…and Happ can only really backup one player being lost from all the other positions…and Morrow (never been a closer) backup is Cishek? And i liek Cishek…but that is a far fall from Chapman and Davis shoudl MOrrow not work out
I dont undervalue the Cubs potential at all..they SHOULD win…but they SHOULD have won last year too…and they didnt…and they were threatened by two teams until the end whom had obvious flaws
I could care less about the NLCS appearances…seeing as no one ever cares about the Card’s NLCS appearances unless they win the WS
Mike…
well that and that we have Reyes and Flaherty waiting to make up for any deficienciesEven if on paper it looks weak..the quality of depth we have is pretty impressive…not something the Cubs for example can say…should they lose Lester or Darvish
except the Cubs are out pretty much dry of powder…and we barely have used (or use it in general) ours
World Series hangover is just an excuse…their young players didnt get better (Schwarber and Russell) and they had injuries and poor play form big investments (Heyward and Lester and LAckey to some degree)…Heyward didnt work out and Zobrist got old…they had to trade Torres to get the best closer in baseball for a few months and then rode him no matter the potential injury cost to get the WS just barely…
The Cubs are just as flawed as any other teams…they just have two tent poles in Bryant and Rizzo that make a lot of other guys not look as bad…Lester is trending down and Darvish helps…will Quintana and Hendrick and Chatwood make up the future or are they just fillers? Contreras seems to be rising to be very good if not great at catcher but will all the others they are depending on (because they have few backups) play well enough?
it is trite but it is true…you go out every game and try to win…then adjust as the data gets bigger and bigger telling you trends…
hot starts count the same as hot finishes…
I think what is most important is that the team comes out confident and not get into an early rut…every team in the league starts with the same record and until the season knocks them down they all believe…the Cardinals tend to know this and plan for this…but even so last year’s poor start (and others hot starts) really got them down…. the first month will be really important…even if it they all know the games count the same later… if they start out cold again..heads will roll even if logic says to wait it out…and the vets will think they are in store for 2017 all over again…
unfortunately you ant control how good you will be or the other teams will be…i still look hard at how awesome the Reds were early on last year…they were beating everyone…and it was major factor at the end of the season…not because they stayed good but because they were so uncommonly good early which affected all the leader teams…
with as odd a year it was last year we would have been in the playoffs in the 2nd WC spot safely, 2nd in the division only 2 back of the Cubs, had we not lost 7 games to the Reds by June 8 in 2017
the Reds and the Bucs may not seem to matter to people but their games were and are important…and when you play them can be just as important…the CArdinals didnt necessarily LOSE all those games either..the Reds won them…then the season beat them down and late they folded and were easily handled by us and almost everyone else
I just dont see the Cubs not having concerns…nor any other team in the league…a lot can go right for a team early to make their impact on a season be big enough to matter
I wouldnt be surprised to see someone other than the Cubs be in 1st place by the beginning of June…and definitely in April and May…
I think the Bucs especially are getting disrespected…they really didnt blow up the team as much as everyone thinks and their young hurlers and hitters are good…
Seems a horse race between Munoz and Bader at this point…with Voit and maybe Valera hanging in there…
It will probably be unexciting as both probably make the 25 man opening day and then the question will be who is sent down when we expand the bullpen…
though it coudl be argued that we start with 8 in the pen as there may be more intrigue in who makes the final bullpen…especially with Mayers and Lucas showing well
Locks:
Gregerson
Norris
Leone
Bowman
Lyons
Tuivalala
CecilLeaves 1 spot (with 8 man) for:
Brebbia
Mayers
Lucas
Gant
Sherriff
etc etcBrebbia MAY be the #8 lock too…and if they want to see BRbebia… MAyers or Lucas now they may go to the 8 man day one…especially if Gregerson and NOrris are still dealing with some slight injuries
I like Munoz right now for his flex more than BAder…but i kind of want to see Munoz get every day ABs at SS in AAA
then he hits a HR… nice to see him confident in these early ABs
power plus walks and a regular old hit…what else do we want?
GScott
i think you make some good points
all i will say is that the Cubs are hoping for a lot of stuff to go right too… Schwarber, Heyward, Zobrist, Russell all had poor last year’s…we are handing them improvements based on name recogniotion most of the time
add in that Baez and Contreras and even Happ are all in the same spot as Pham kind of is for us…also ALmora is fine in the field but leaves a lot to be wanted offensively
they have Bryant and Rizzo…that is big…MVP style guys… we have Ozuna in that category…then a rung or two down we have Carp… when it comes to proven high level proven players… so sure on the very high end of their players they have an advantage…but they have plenty of problematic ? marks in there…and ST stats are just that at this point
last year the Cubs had a pretty solid rotation (LAckey going down for a little bit)…but LEster trended down, Lackey was poor, Quintana was average…and Hendricks overperformed…Arrieta trended down too…Darvish and Chatwood are upgrades in total over LAckey and Arrieta IMO…but not by a ton…
they were lead by Bryant and Rizzo and Contreras…with help from Baez…but the rest of the offense was so so… Happ helped but after that they didnt have much…
they also had a backend of their pen who was awesome…MOrrow is still a big question mark for capability to close
they had their WS winner team with an extra year of experience and came up on a little poor play and barely won the division…to two teams with bigger flaws…
also…did the Bucs really get that much worse than last year moving on from Walker, McCutcheon and Cole?
I am not saying they are good or great but they have a pretty nice farm system with arms and bats…not to mention they got bit by the injury bug pretty heavily last yearthe Reds…yeah, i am overly confident on them…but with a scary offense they can cover up a lot of pitching problems…and they did improve their pen a bit…
with the quality of their prospects and young MLBers they could easily make a move to get a front line starter if they wanted…in fact a move for Archer would be pretty sneaky of them…and they havent even spent much money either…
for example…trade Schebler + Garrett + Finnegan + higher end prospect for Archer..they have plenty to sweeten a deal
sign Cobb
trade Mesoraco and a younger piece to the Nationals for Koda Glover or a decent reliever-Hamilton, Senzel, Votto, Duvall, Winker, Gennett, Barnhart, Peraza, pitcher
-with a decent bench…but not great
-Archer, Cobb, Bailey, Castillo, DeScalfini/Stephenson/Mahle
-backend Iglesias, Lorenzen, Glover, Hernandezthat is a solid team…add Trammell and Siri to the offense in a few years….and Greene to the rotation and it looks good for a while
not to mention they could still move Schebler and Duvall at any point to fix or help with any problems
as of right now…their rotation is weak…but they have lots of options to improve that if they want
The Reds and BRewers and Bucs all seem like teams that will go on streaks of hot play…if the Brewers added a solid rotation piece like Cobb or a trade…i think they’d be better to bet on..
The Cubs seem the easiest to bet on as they have name recognition and past success…but seem really thin…still no reason to not think they shoudl be solid…
to me..the Cardinals of this year are crazy deep…but lack a second impact pitcher…i feel they are either going to be good or really poor…and the depth will help them from diving too low…however should they stay healthy and play decent …it may be hard for their depth to be impactful or helpful enough to warrant the advantage it may provide
he got two walks…makes me happy..
he also ran the bases and scored both times which tells me his back is getting better
didnt swing..but to be honest…i dont care…he can take walks every time at the plate and i will be happy…
why is it that it is only the Cardinals players that have to overachieve?…we don’t play the game in a vacuum
The Cubs and BRewers and bucs and Reds players all have the ability to play better or heaven forbid worse…and let’s not discuss the randomness of injuries to important players
The Cardinals chances arent solely on the backs of players OVER achieving…
A Lester or Darvish injury or poor play severely affects the Cubs
same goes for Rizzo and BryantThe Brewers have high upside guys that could go either direction, and let’s not play that for all his potential that Yelich is a superstar producer yet…he seems a great player, but he was set up pretty well with Stanton and Ozuna and even Gordon and Realmuto to produce,,and whiel i liek his numbers he isn’t a world beater…and Cain had a nice come back from injury last year but he isnt who he was before the injury IMO…they are great adds and they provide great depth now with Santana being a 4th OFer it seems…but you could argue that their pitching extremely overachieved last year
The Bucs got rid of McCutcheon and Cole who werent the best players on their team last year and have internal options to replace them anyways.
The Reds again have rotation issues but they had one of the best offenses in the league last year and have their prospects ready to make impacts…and that rotation may look poor now, but has some very high upside not that far off ( Castillo, Mahle, Garrett, Stephenson, Bailey…not to mention Greene eventually) is not a bad upside rotation…and they did improve their bullpen
I think the Cardinals have to play well to win the division…but that is how it is supposed to work…there will be injuries and poor play and overachieving too…and that can happen to every team…you roll with it and keep going…and IMO…the Cardinals had some big issues the last two years…but were still in the playoff discussion all the way into the last day and last weekend…that to me shows that despite the final outcome that this team is made to take the punches of a season and still succeed…. we have yet to see whether the Cubs can take those kinds of hits and still win…because last year they shoudl have been even better than the year before yet nope…they werent…can the BRewers till win if their pitching goes down, even with the offensive additions, can the Cubs?
This Cardinals team seems built on the inevitable disaster happening…they have quality backups at every position and no clear player that the team is built on to succeed….Cmart and Ozuna..maybe even DeJong lean pretty heavily…but even so..we have good OFers waiting, Reyes and Flaherty, and Munoz perhaps…not AAAA hopefuls…good high upside guys…
Waino and Mikolas are questions…but the rotation basically has 2-3 ready to go MLB starters with high upside…what other team can say that…Reyes and Flaherty would both be in a lot of MLB rotations right now…we have safety nets
the bullpen doesnt have a closer…and have we considered maybe that is a GOOD thing? having that one guys really makes you lean on them..and last year that didnt help…this year we have 3-5 options or more just in case one doesnt work out we can move on without concern
I would feel better with an Archer trade still…but if we look at this team as being built on disaster prevention…keeping Kelly and Flaherty and Hudson and the young OFers all makes a lot of sense..
i woudl feel better with Machado or Abreu or donaldson or whomever else…but it’s not like we dont have some pretty solid young hitters at AAA
also do not forget that early on last year was the worst the team has played in almost all aspects…and coinciding with that was uncommon great play by the Brewers and the Reds…which hurt the win total unexpectedly…sometimes everything goes wrong all at the same time which can double or triple the poor play and effects of the team… as a side note…that early poor play combined with the high level play of the Reds and BRewers last year i believe is also part of the reason the fan base is so pessimistic and concerned even though by the end of the year the team was pretty solid and lots of the early issues were not as prevalent.. case in point Cecil…to most fans he is worthless, but really that all comes from that early play combined with the good play of the opponents, same goes for Carp, and Fowler…yet all were not as bad as that early poor play which seems to have burnt into the retinas of optimism of the Cardinals fans…poor first impressions are hard to beat back even if they deserve them…
i mean look at Ozuna…it is like the 3rd week of his ST and people were already calling for his head because he wasnt mashing…it is one thing to be concerned, but if he goes bad early on…peopel will be calling for heads to roll…even if he ends up with a solid season
At the end of the day we have to play well…btu we also have to be able to roll with the punches…sometimes those punches are too big to overcome, whether they are internal failures or injuries or are other teams and players overachieving…it’s why the season is worth watching…
by looking we shouldn’t have even been in consideration for the playoffs two years ago or last year and yet there we were punching with our flawed and hole-ridden teams…perhaps again that will be how the season goes, but perhaps this year we have enough quality patches to get over the humps and bumps of the season that will undoubtedly mar the season
i cant remember where the discussion on Wick vs Mayers was being had…but i have to say how happy i am to have been wrong on wanting Wick over Mayers….at least so far he has looked more than impressive…i guess that offseason work and play really helped him…it is still ST and Wick is still young but good going so far
good for Mayers!
so Ozuna is average?
CMart is average?
Reyes is average?we have better than average players all around the diamond…what you want is a superstar…and Cmart and Ozuna and Reyes all have that in them
Pham
Carp
Wong
Yadi
Fowler are all above average…even Gyorko is…DeJong performed better than that last year too..go look at some other teams before you start acting as if this team doesnt have any talent
We don’t have Kris Bryant or Harper or MAchado or Trout or Kershaw…get over it…but the players we have are not terrible nor even average
im not wrong either…look it up yourself
you can feel free to blissfully ignorant and succumb to your own bias all you want, but i dont have to accept it just because you keep saying it over and over
i didnt say he isnt in some kind of decline..i said (and have said multiple times) that his decline is still far better than most every other active catcher…that he is in a decline is not the question…a decline means nothing at all… Molina was up so high his decline to where he is is still good..and for some reason you cant see that through your bias against him and the org giving him a contract…oh and your complaining about him not running out his grounders to 1b…or maybe his one time kerfuffle with Matheny…
also where is all this proof of Kelly being better and worthy of unseating Molina?
Molina was top 5 last year in hitting, All Star (voted in by players..player respect), SB leader at catcher, GG finalist (top 3), leader in RBIs for CArdinals, hit .273, 18HRs, 2.8 WAR, with 1.1 dWar, and played in 136 games
i have shown my proof over and over and all you do is say that it isnt true…and that everyone knows that he is bad and declining terribly…and cite no specific individuals or stats
the facts show that despite your bias…Yadi isn’t declining to a point that he should be replaced
now…he “should” be declining…he should be not good anymore and his numbers should be way down…but they havent done that yet… until they do and until Kelly shows something other than a dependable glove (which arent hard to find)…not only should Molina not be replaced it shouldnt even be a discussion until he shows weaknesses to warrant it…a “slight” to negligible decline in pitch framing does not constitute such proof
The stats show he is top end…the lists of top catchers by pundits and writers put him near the top…the eye test still shows it…the respect of the players show it, his durability shows it
deny the facts all you want Ny…i am looking at stats and awards on my side…not only do i have those but also the eye test too…but that’s ok…blame his jogs to 1b, and 1 media guffaw, and personal bias against the StL org and decision to extend him to vilify him…
i have never seen someone go out of their way to find any idea of flaws in someone to back up their personal bias so much…you seem to watch hoping to see a mistake…you WANT him to play poorly so it can justify your bias opinion….and if it doesnt play out the way you want you just deny it
i am happy to have my high opinion of Yadi…it lines right up with the stats and subjective rankings of writers and analysts
i will continue to counter your repeated unwarranted defamation of Yadi with a rebuttal…but you seem long gone from trying to reason with…
show me the decline in Molina
it isnt there offensively…and any “proof” of his decline defensively is extremely subjective as are all defensive metrics and even the “eye test” would only potentially put him in the top 5-10 of active catchers instead of 1-3
and Kelly has done NOTHING to prove he can provide anything better for the team…outside of potentially slightly better top end speed which is rarely needed as catcher…as Yadi’s baserunning is pretty good…and he was the SB leader last year at the position
you can keep saying all you want about Yadi’s decline as if it is fact but until i see it and see Kelly doing anything to warrant him supplanting Yadi i wont consider Yadi’s contract as being detrimental in any way
but feel free to keep saying it over and over…doesnt make it true nor does it make it any more convincing
nice to see JMart back
also nice giving a start to Sosa
speaking of which…Is Sosa destined for AA to start or is going to get a shot at AAA?
AAA is looking pretty crowded but Sosa has looked solid IMo
C- Pena/Baron/…Knizner?
1- Voit/Ravelo/Wisdom
2- Valera/Meija….Schrock?
3- Wisdom/Munoz/Meija
SS- Munoz/Meija….Sosa?
OF- Oneill,Garcia,Valera/Mercado?…Arozarena?throw in the impressive pitching and it looks to be another AAA champion
slowly seems accurate but also they said he had a personal tragedy that he wont talk about
it seems no one is pushing for an explanation other than that and i appreciate that
CC you didnt prove one thing to me last offseason about Owings being better than Garcia…i still dont agree and could care less about bWAR…the eye test along with plenty of other stats make me feel very confident in my opinion
Owings can play SS and CF which Garcia cant…and has better wheels…has good power..he provides power, speed, stolen base threat and insurance for SS much more than Garcia does…Garcia is a light hitting lefty who can get on base…every time he has been given extra exposure he has failed…Owings on the other hand was forced into starting last year and excelled at it until he got hit on the hand and injured his finger
Owings was injured last year (finger) AND their WAR was the same for the year .7..a
https://www.thebaseballcube.com/apps/compare.asp?Q=145860,147807&Y1=2017&Y2=2017&Group=false&Stats=
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10030&position=2B/SSHe played in less games but had more plate appearances, he bests Garcia in almost every category except OBP and walks…he strikes out more, but he hits for way more power and drives in runs…
When Owings played he played well…he played a lot of OF last year because Pollock was hurt, but he also played a lot of SS as well…and played a lot more of it than Garcia did…and he did it on a playoff team
as for him being left handed…sure that matters a bit…but with Valera as a switch hitting option that may be mitigated somewhat…also, should Carp not be playing 100% of the time he is also left handed..same goes for Wong…if Carp is really in a super sub role then that means he will be super subbing all over the place which means himself and Wong are left handed options for the bench at times…also should Fowler get rest he is a switch hitter
Garcia takes a walk…finds a way to get on base..he is great at it.i like him a lot..he even plays a good 2b IMO… but he has little to no power, and has no options and his SS ability isnt high enough for him to be in the role we have him in… if it was a different role and we didnt have a solid 3-4 guys who have a similar skill set waiting i might change my mind
-Kelly, Garcia, JMart, leaves you with need of a CF backup and SS backup…Bader or Munoz or Meija
-Kelly, Owings, JMart, leaves you with putting in whatever you want, we still have 2 backups at ever position at least…way more flexibility depending on what you may need or want…you could shuttle it depending on the series even…any player could be brought up and it wouldnt hurt us..so someone on a hot streak…need a power lefty like O’neill, maybe a 3rd catcher…maybe you want a speed demon….or someone is ailing and you want a glove only guyCC…I wont be bullied by your CAPS and snide dismissals into changing my opinion…nor with sharing it
any system where the functions of the system prevents the best players from playing the entire season isnt good
paying players and players receiving compensation for their work is not a question.
it isnt all one direction coming from MLB but also from the owners, the agents, and the players…they are all part of the system
but until the system works where it allows (Fairly) for the best players to play…then the system is not good for baseball
Artie seems fine depth for the Memphis rotation…i am not sure what he profiles like as pure reliever…he isnt going anywhere this year i dont think…we wouldnt cut him…reassigned maybe