March 13, 2018 at 8:09 am #45624NJ315Participant
My opinion is you’re in it to win it. Contending every year is ok but not nice enough.March 13, 2018 at 10:11 am #45649
OVER or UNDER: how many Cardinals will have to have MUCH better than anticipated seasons to win the NLC?
For example…. CMarinez-Wacha-Wong-FowlerMarch 13, 2018 at 10:26 am #45652
OVER or UNDER: how many Cardinals will have to have MUCH better than anticipated seasons to win the NLC?
For example…. CMarinez-Wacha-Wong-Fowler
25March 13, 2018 at 10:47 am #45654
gsc, you’re a funny guy. Unless you’re serious.March 13, 2018 at 2:02 pm #45658
Well I am somewhat serious but I admit it was a lazy answer. To put it mildly, we will need several players to overachieve to win the NLC.March 13, 2018 at 2:07 pm #45659
I think its pretty obvious that the Cards FO/Management has decided on the model they will use.Internal Player development with some smart trades added in and a complimentaryy Free agent signing or two .As for the Cubs being smarter (Theo) i dont buy that line of thinking.I am still waiting for people to convince me that THEO is a genius.(When has he built anything without the benefit of a big wallet behind him?As for Cubbies having a period of contending the odds are that after sucking for many years you ought to get lucky sometimes.Tanking didn`t hurt either.After all those top picks they finally got lucky and big checkbook helped also.
I see nothing wrongwith being a steady yearly contender by going the route the Cards are going.It might not be cool or sexy enough for many instant gratification fans (younger) but i prefer a team being in contention yearly instead of boom or bust.I remember too many poor Cards teams from the 70s and how the Cards teams fell badly after 1964 WS (1965) rebounded in 67-68 and then barely sniffed contention in the 70s.
We have been led to believe by some that payroll is not an accurate indicator of on the field success so your quotes that I have in bold seem to contradict that theory.March 13, 2018 at 4:22 pm #45663forsch31ParticipantFree
14NyquisT, what are you using to be the “anticipated seasons”?March 14, 2018 at 9:01 am #45682
why is it that it is only the Cardinals players that have to overachieve?…we don’t play the game in a vacuum
The Cubs and BRewers and bucs and Reds players all have the ability to play better or heaven forbid worse…and let’s not discuss the randomness of injuries to important players
The Cardinals chances arent solely on the backs of players OVER achieving…
A Lester or Darvish injury or poor play severely affects the Cubs
same goes for Rizzo and Bryant
The Brewers have high upside guys that could go either direction, and let’s not play that for all his potential that Yelich is a superstar producer yet…he seems a great player, but he was set up pretty well with Stanton and Ozuna and even Gordon and Realmuto to produce,,and whiel i liek his numbers he isn’t a world beater…and Cain had a nice come back from injury last year but he isnt who he was before the injury IMO…they are great adds and they provide great depth now with Santana being a 4th OFer it seems…but you could argue that their pitching extremely overachieved last year
The Bucs got rid of McCutcheon and Cole who werent the best players on their team last year and have internal options to replace them anyways.
The Reds again have rotation issues but they had one of the best offenses in the league last year and have their prospects ready to make impacts…and that rotation may look poor now, but has some very high upside not that far off ( Castillo, Mahle, Garrett, Stephenson, Bailey…not to mention Greene eventually) is not a bad upside rotation…and they did improve their bullpen
I think the Cardinals have to play well to win the division…but that is how it is supposed to work…there will be injuries and poor play and overachieving too…and that can happen to every team…you roll with it and keep going…and IMO…the Cardinals had some big issues the last two years…but were still in the playoff discussion all the way into the last day and last weekend…that to me shows that despite the final outcome that this team is made to take the punches of a season and still succeed…. we have yet to see whether the Cubs can take those kinds of hits and still win…because last year they shoudl have been even better than the year before yet nope…they werent…can the BRewers till win if their pitching goes down, even with the offensive additions, can the Cubs?
This Cardinals team seems built on the inevitable disaster happening…they have quality backups at every position and no clear player that the team is built on to succeed….Cmart and Ozuna..maybe even DeJong lean pretty heavily…but even so..we have good OFers waiting, Reyes and Flaherty, and Munoz perhaps…not AAAA hopefuls…good high upside guys…
Waino and Mikolas are questions…but the rotation basically has 2-3 ready to go MLB starters with high upside…what other team can say that…Reyes and Flaherty would both be in a lot of MLB rotations right now…we have safety nets
the bullpen doesnt have a closer…and have we considered maybe that is a GOOD thing? having that one guys really makes you lean on them..and last year that didnt help…this year we have 3-5 options or more just in case one doesnt work out we can move on without concern
I would feel better with an Archer trade still…but if we look at this team as being built on disaster prevention…keeping Kelly and Flaherty and Hudson and the young OFers all makes a lot of sense..
i woudl feel better with Machado or Abreu or donaldson or whomever else…but it’s not like we dont have some pretty solid young hitters at AAA
also do not forget that early on last year was the worst the team has played in almost all aspects…and coinciding with that was uncommon great play by the Brewers and the Reds…which hurt the win total unexpectedly…sometimes everything goes wrong all at the same time which can double or triple the poor play and effects of the team… as a side note…that early poor play combined with the high level play of the Reds and BRewers last year i believe is also part of the reason the fan base is so pessimistic and concerned even though by the end of the year the team was pretty solid and lots of the early issues were not as prevalent.. case in point Cecil…to most fans he is worthless, but really that all comes from that early play combined with the good play of the opponents, same goes for Carp, and Fowler…yet all were not as bad as that early poor play which seems to have burnt into the retinas of optimism of the Cardinals fans…poor first impressions are hard to beat back even if they deserve them…
i mean look at Ozuna…it is like the 3rd week of his ST and people were already calling for his head because he wasnt mashing…it is one thing to be concerned, but if he goes bad early on…peopel will be calling for heads to roll…even if he ends up with a solid season
At the end of the day we have to play well…btu we also have to be able to roll with the punches…sometimes those punches are too big to overcome, whether they are internal failures or injuries or are other teams and players overachieving…it’s why the season is worth watching…
by looking we shouldn’t have even been in consideration for the playoffs two years ago or last year and yet there we were punching with our flawed and hole-ridden teams…perhaps again that will be how the season goes, but perhaps this year we have enough quality patches to get over the humps and bumps of the season that will undoubtedly mar the seasonMarch 14, 2018 at 9:29 am #45684
While the Brewers will have a very competitive team I think they are going to come up short in the rotation. The Reds and Pirates really aren’t worth mentioning at this point. Obviously, the Cubs are the team that stands in our way. Do the Cubs have a weakness? They certainly don’t when it comes to position player quality and depth but I would say, as jager pointed out, their main weakness is lack of depth in the rotation. They are strong 1-5, but as we know, a team usually needs at least 8 starters to get through a season. The Cubs have been able to avoid significant injuries the last few years but if one or two of their big starters go down they could have a problem.
Our current rotation doesn’t have the quality that the Cubs have but we do have the depth advantage and within a year or two I think our rotation will actually be better than theirs top to bottom. A rotation of CMart, Weaver, Reyes, Wacha, and Flaherty sounds nasty. Perhaps that will be our 2019 rotation.
But as for 2018 I’m afraid we are going to need the injury bug to hit the Cubs for us to have a chance at the NLC title.March 14, 2018 at 1:15 pm #45689
i think you make some good points
all i will say is that the Cubs are hoping for a lot of stuff to go right too… Schwarber, Heyward, Zobrist, Russell all had poor last year’s…we are handing them improvements based on name recogniotion most of the time
add in that Baez and Contreras and even Happ are all in the same spot as Pham kind of is for us…also ALmora is fine in the field but leaves a lot to be wanted offensively
they have Bryant and Rizzo…that is big…MVP style guys… we have Ozuna in that category…then a rung or two down we have Carp… when it comes to proven high level proven players… so sure on the very high end of their players they have an advantage…but they have plenty of problematic ? marks in there…and ST stats are just that at this point
last year the Cubs had a pretty solid rotation (LAckey going down for a little bit)…but LEster trended down, Lackey was poor, Quintana was average…and Hendricks overperformed…Arrieta trended down too…Darvish and Chatwood are upgrades in total over LAckey and Arrieta IMO…but not by a ton…
they were lead by Bryant and Rizzo and Contreras…with help from Baez…but the rest of the offense was so so… Happ helped but after that they didnt have much…
they also had a backend of their pen who was awesome…MOrrow is still a big question mark for capability to close
they had their WS winner team with an extra year of experience and came up on a little poor play and barely won the division…to two teams with bigger flaws…
also…did the Bucs really get that much worse than last year moving on from Walker, McCutcheon and Cole?
I am not saying they are good or great but they have a pretty nice farm system with arms and bats…not to mention they got bit by the injury bug pretty heavily last year
the Reds…yeah, i am overly confident on them…but with a scary offense they can cover up a lot of pitching problems…and they did improve their pen a bit…
with the quality of their prospects and young MLBers they could easily make a move to get a front line starter if they wanted…in fact a move for Archer would be pretty sneaky of them…and they havent even spent much money either…
for example…trade Schebler + Garrett + Finnegan + higher end prospect for Archer..they have plenty to sweeten a deal
trade Mesoraco and a younger piece to the Nationals for Koda Glover or a decent reliever
-Hamilton, Senzel, Votto, Duvall, Winker, Gennett, Barnhart, Peraza, pitcher
-with a decent bench…but not great
-Archer, Cobb, Bailey, Castillo, DeScalfini/Stephenson/Mahle
-backend Iglesias, Lorenzen, Glover, Hernandez
that is a solid team…add Trammell and Siri to the offense in a few years….and Greene to the rotation and it looks good for a while
not to mention they could still move Schebler and Duvall at any point to fix or help with any problems
as of right now…their rotation is weak…but they have lots of options to improve that if they want
The Reds and BRewers and Bucs all seem like teams that will go on streaks of hot play…if the Brewers added a solid rotation piece like Cobb or a trade…i think they’d be better to bet on..
The Cubs seem the easiest to bet on as they have name recognition and past success…but seem really thin…still no reason to not think they shoudl be solid…
to me..the Cardinals of this year are crazy deep…but lack a second impact pitcher…i feel they are either going to be good or really poor…and the depth will help them from diving too low…however should they stay healthy and play decent …it may be hard for their depth to be impactful or helpful enough to warrant the advantage it may provideMarch 14, 2018 at 3:30 pm #45692
A lot of people think the Cubs suffered from world series hangover last year which they won’t be dealing with this year.
I think the best we can hope is to try to stay within 5 games of them until the all star beak then hope Mo pulls a big move at the deadline to give us a boost. We do have more dry powder available than the Cubs but their front office seems more willing to use it than ours.March 15, 2018 at 10:25 am #45729
except the Cubs are out pretty much dry of powder…and we barely have used (or use it in general) ours
World Series hangover is just an excuse…their young players didnt get better (Schwarber and Russell) and they had injuries and poor play form big investments (Heyward and Lester and LAckey to some degree)…Heyward didnt work out and Zobrist got old…they had to trade Torres to get the best closer in baseball for a few months and then rode him no matter the potential injury cost to get the WS just barely…
The Cubs are just as flawed as any other teams…they just have two tent poles in Bryant and Rizzo that make a lot of other guys not look as bad…Lester is trending down and Darvish helps…will Quintana and Hendrick and Chatwood make up the future or are they just fillers? Contreras seems to be rising to be very good if not great at catcher but will all the others they are depending on (because they have few backups) play well enough?
it is trite but it is true…you go out every game and try to win…then adjust as the data gets bigger and bigger telling you trends…
hot starts count the same as hot finishes…
I think what is most important is that the team comes out confident and not get into an early rut…every team in the league starts with the same record and until the season knocks them down they all believe…the Cardinals tend to know this and plan for this…but even so last year’s poor start (and others hot starts) really got them down…. the first month will be really important…even if it they all know the games count the same later… if they start out cold again..heads will roll even if logic says to wait it out…and the vets will think they are in store for 2017 all over again…
unfortunately you ant control how good you will be or the other teams will be…i still look hard at how awesome the Reds were early on last year…they were beating everyone…and it was major factor at the end of the season…not because they stayed good but because they were so uncommonly good early which affected all the leader teams…
with as odd a year it was last year we would have been in the playoffs in the 2nd WC spot safely, 2nd in the division only 2 back of the Cubs, had we not lost 7 games to the Reds by June 8 in 2017
the Reds and the Bucs may not seem to matter to people but their games were and are important…and when you play them can be just as important…the CArdinals didnt necessarily LOSE all those games either..the Reds won them…then the season beat them down and late they folded and were easily handled by us and almost everyone else
I just dont see the Cubs not having concerns…nor any other team in the league…a lot can go right for a team early to make their impact on a season be big enough to matter
I wouldnt be surprised to see someone other than the Cubs be in 1st place by the beginning of June…and definitely in April and May…
I think the Bucs especially are getting disrespected…they really didnt blow up the team as much as everyone thinks and their young hurlers and hitters are good…March 15, 2018 at 11:24 am #45730mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
I’m not sure what the Cardinals’ flaws are, other than the possibilities of injuries. Right now the starting rotation looks as good as any rotation in the NL. Mikolas, in particular, if what we saw in his last start is for real, has electric movement on his pitches. Then, there’s Carlos Maritnez who is a pretty decent number one. And we’ll soon find out what a determined Wainwirght is capable of, and there’s Wacha. Weaver has added a curveball this year and he’s been getting swings and misses with it. So, what’s not to like? On top of all that we have Reyes and Flaherty and, IMO, Gant, just waiting for their chance. I don’t see any reason to label Gant as a ‘back of rotation guy’, so why do it?
The bullpen has been shutting everybody down. The only pitcher there that worries me is Cecil. And that’s because he gave up so many leads last year that I just don’t trust him at all. The notion that he wasn’t really that bad, based upon his numbers, is tremendously misleading. He stunk last year. He almost single-handedly, lost about a half dozen games last year. Lets hope that he’s better than that this year.
Also, I don’t see a hole in the starting lineup. Or am I missing something?
I know ‘hope springs eternal’ at this time of the year. But, IMO, this team is a contender for the Division, and beyond.March 15, 2018 at 2:50 pm #45737
Well I would say the two of you (jager and mudville) are vastly underestimating how good the Cubs are. Just two years ago this same core made up almost the entire NL All Star team. They struggled for awhile last year but still made the NLCS.
I would also say you are being very optimistic about our team but I really hope you are right. I still think the key will be to hang tight during the first half then hope Mo uses the dry powder at the deadline. History tells me not to get my hopes up that he will do that.March 16, 2018 at 9:59 am #45774
There is no doubt that the Cubs if everything clicks is probably better than the rest of the division if everything clicks for them too
However, as last year showed, they are only a few poor year’s worth of players to be vulnerable to the point of losing the division to not just one team but two (as last year showed again)…their depth is suspect especially in the starting pitching…Happ and CAratini are nice young hitters that can help but outside of that what do they have that could really be impact from their system? even money-wise they obviously could make a move somehow to fix a problem, but they have a budget as much as any other team…and how much do they really want to invest before next offseason as they try to woo Harper etc.?
The non-superstar centered team the Cardinals have been working with for a few years now has produced a quality of depth that is hard to be matched (at least at the highest levels of the minors…thus MLB potential impact)
If the Cardinals lost any player they have someone ready to fill in (outside of DeJOng with all due respect to MUnoz)…Martinez’s elite level? Reyes is super high end…Ozuna? tough…but Bader and Oneill and Garcia make for intriguing options for impacting the team even without the world class power of Ozuna…even Yadi has a replacement whom is capable of impact…the 7-8th’s of the bullpen have the stuff to potentially close…and Bowman could probably do it too…
Should the Cubs lose Darvish or Lester…they turn to Montgomery? and Butler? maybe Smyly if he is ever healthy? Rizzo and Bryant are tent poles with the drop off in production from their backups being very steep…Contreras has Caratini which seems ok…and Happ can only really backup one player being lost from all the other positions…and Morrow (never been a closer) backup is Cishek? And i liek Cishek…but that is a far fall from Chapman and Davis shoudl MOrrow not work out
I dont undervalue the Cubs potential at all..they SHOULD win…but they SHOULD have won last year too…and they didnt…and they were threatened by two teams until the end whom had obvious flaws
I could care less about the NLCS appearances…seeing as no one ever cares about the Card’s NLCS appearances unless they win the WSApril 5, 2018 at 8:57 pm #47613
Granted it is very early, but DeJong has a very odd stat line. Of his 26 plate appearances so far, 10 resulted in hits (including 3 HR) and nine were strikeouts. He has just one walk.
Strikeout rate: 34.6%
Walk rate: 3.8%
Career to date
Strikeout rate: 28.4%
Walk rate: 4.7%
So far this season, his plate discipline is eroding further. But, like I said, it is still early.April 5, 2018 at 9:54 pm #47628NJ315Participant
4 strikeouts tonightApril 5, 2018 at 9:56 pm #47629April 6, 2018 at 9:12 am #47673PadsFSParticipantFree
Those plate discipline stats stabilize pretty early.
60 PA: Strikeout rate
120 PA: Walk rateApril 6, 2018 at 9:19 am #47675
He should be DLed with DIAZITIS. Right?April 6, 2018 at 9:40 am #47681BrianpnoonanParticipantFree
Dejong seems to be more like vlad guerrero than diaz — when he makes contact it goes a long ways.
That changes the dynamic. A lot.
The money here was imo never an issue… it was the timing and consequences. He will have long stupid dry spells and hot streaks where he puts us in the playoffs. Just who he is.April 6, 2018 at 9:46 am #47686Bw52ParticipantPaid - Annual
TommyFlashinthepan “FBOMB”everybody is picking on me”Pham 28 ABs 9 K
Ozuna 30 AB 11 K
Dumbcontract Fowler 30 AB 9K
Lets spread the negative vibes around people.April 6, 2018 at 9:57 am #47691
Yes, lots of strikeouts across the board, yet DeJong is approaching 40% and IMHO, it was newsworthy that he fanned all four times last night – especially given how strong his overall stat line has been.
Given his (brief) history, there was a lot of talk (hope?) that he was improving his plate discipline. So it is something I have been watching and will continue to do. Perhaps next report will be better news, but it seems pretty clear he cannot sustain both his results and these K and BB rates.April 6, 2018 at 10:08 am #47692
What is “report” that you speak of?April 6, 2018 at 11:33 am #47701PadsFSParticipantFree
His plate discipline did improve somewhat as the year went on last year.
Monthly BB% K%
May 0.0 % 18.2 %
Jun 1.1 % 32.6 %
Jul 6.9 % 29.7 %
Aug 3.2 % 26.4 %
Sept 7.9 % 25.4 %
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