SoonerinNC

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  • in reply to: StL 2019 NLCS Game 3 thread: Mon 10/13 at Nats #111498
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    SoonerinNC
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    Bader would be cannon fodder to Strassburg’s breaking pitches. I can see sitting Carp and risk JMart’s defense in right field. The offense is a major piece to fix next year but these first two games are similar to what has happened all season. You don’t suddenly overhaul a team that has made it to the National League Championship Finals.

    However, the last two games are the worst offense we have had all year. Very few hard hit balls.

    in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects #111497
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    47. Machado
    48. Cedeno
    49. YaSenka
    50. Gragg

    in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects #110814
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    43. Y Gonzalez
    44. Robertson
    45. L Jimenez
    46. Machado

    in reply to: Tommy Edman – Center Field? #110778
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    I had no idea that Tommy is considered a bad outfielder. From my unlearned observation there doesn’t seem to be nearly as many balls dropping around him as with Fowler, Martinez, Ozuna. (last two a no brainer).

    By not profiling as a 3b on offense he looks to be a 10-18 home run guy. Ideally we have one who pops 30-40.

    Ozuna appears to be on a charge that will improve his free agent contract.

    in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects #110340
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    Y Gonzalez for #42

    in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects #110331
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    39 Gingery
    40 Capel
    41 Pages
    42 Elledge

    in reply to: Playoff Rotation/Roster #109852
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    The only surprise to me is Cabrera. I guess Shildt felt that he needed another left handed option with the trouble that Miller had the last week.

    O’Neill has been an automatic strikeout since his injury.

    in reply to: Playoff Rotation/Roster #109848
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    Arezorena performed well both offensively and defensively during his brief stay in the major leagues this season. That after a breakout year at Memphis.

    The problem, however is that young inexperienced players very often but not always tend to try to do too much, particularly in high stress situations. In doing so they often have difficulty.

    Rather than an outlier this is probably a breakout year for him. Players who improve as they move up the system are usually legitimate prospects.

    Should be quite a spring training with Bader, Thomas, O’Neill, Arozarena and Carlson and even Garcia vying for one or two starting outfield positions. Of course one or more of them could go in trades before then.

    It would be a big gamble to start Arozarena in the playoffs, particularly in game one.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Avatar SoonerinNC.
    in reply to: NL Wild Card thread: Tue 10/1 Brewers at Nats #109728
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    The Nationals got here without Harper and the Phillies who got him didn’t. Padres with Machado and their top 5 farm system didn’t either. Are we sure we wanted those guys.

    I was suprised to see Hader in the 8th. He hasn’t got out of the 9th lately. A two inning save seemed like a long shot to me. Even the games he has saved lately he got hit pretty hard.

    Looks like a lot of bullpens hitting the wall at this time in the season.

    in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects #109725
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    35 Gingery
    36 Escobar
    37 Capel
    38 Pages

    in reply to: Thinking about 2020. #109280
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    You have to ignore Fernandez total minor league numbers. He was initially a hot prospect because of the 100pmr heater. He struggled but developed a very good changeup.

    2019 is the only year that counts for a prospect like him. Very high upside took time to develop but came to fruition this year. Pitched at 4 levels and excelled; even some good outings at St. Louis. Just not ready for high pressure situations. Like most young pitchers tries to do too much, loses command and throws a fat one. Now is probably in his head.

    in reply to: StL 2019 Game 162 thread: Sun 9/29 vs. Cubs: NLC Champs #109268
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    I get perturbed with DeJong taking fat pitches and swinging at bad ones but I think we still keep a good fielding shortstop who hits 30 homers even if he is hitting only .240 and fanning a lot.

    I would go with Flaherty today. We have three chances to win the division. Win today, Brewers lose today or we beat Milwaukee in the division playoff. The only reason I may not go with Flaherty would be how the two have fared in matchups against the Cubs and Brewers this year. If Mikolas has been better against the Cubs then he would go today. If Mikolas has been better against the Brewers then I go with Flaherty today.

    Shildt has to make the right bullpen calls today. There are very few out there that I trust. They seem to have hit the wall after a very good season.

    in reply to: 2019 Arizona Fall League #109267
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    Montero continues to struggle. Concerned about that but he is still pretty young.

    in reply to: Thinking about 2020. #109266
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    If you look at this years team vs last year the stark difference is much better defense and base running and somewhat better pitching, particularly the bullpen in spite of recent difficulties. I assume the difference is at least somewhat due to Shildt’s idea of how the game should be played. I don’t buy the common assertion that the front office controls who should play.

    The players who most do not fit that profile are Fowler, Ozuna, Carpenter and J Martinez. Ozuna is easy. Offer him a qualifying contract and get a draft pick. He could well be one of those who has a hard time doing better but I think he would go. We cannot afford a leadoff hitter that fans four times in a crucial game. Or any hitter. The 26 man roster in the future will alleviate the Carp problem a little bit and he does do some good things off the bench.

    I say go for Rondon. I don’t buy that St. Louis would not be attractive for him. He is from Texas and could well be weary of the bright lights and coastal elites. Edman has had a great year and one of the few who is playing championship lately but he does not profile as a third baseman offensively. Maybe it is time to let Wong go in a deal while off a very good year.

    Fowler is more difficult. Maybe it is time to eat a contract as we did with Leach and get at least a low level prospect for him. I believe on his brief play so far that Arozarena is ready for the bigs. He has some pop and has shown good plate discipline, good defense and a great throwing arm. Add to that a real breakthrough year in the minors.

    I think no way Cecil makes the team next year. That is a contract we will eat. He was on a pretty big downtrend when we signed him just as Miller, Holland, Gregerson and others.

    O’Neill and Munoz have been a non-factor the last two months, but I would not move at least O’Neill until spring training. You need patience with young players. Add Adolis Garcia to that list.

    Alex Reyes is a real X factor. If he is right he would be our next Flaherty. If not he will be a non-factor again.

    in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects #109262
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    31. Gingery
    32. Escobar
    33. Capel
    34. Gragg

    Pedro Pages is in my next group

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    Nice writeup on State College relief.

    in reply to: StL 2019 Game 159 thread: Wed 9/25 at D-backs #108415
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    I suspect that they may sit Fowler (9K’s in 2 games), Carp and Molina today. Maybe not Molina since Thursday is an off day, but the other two need to sit one out. Play Sosa or Muno and Arozarena.

    in reply to: Vote here for 2020 top-50 Cardinal prospects #108233
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    22 Baker
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    24 Gil
    25 Seijas

    in reply to: StL 2019 Game 156 thread: Sun 9/22 at Cubs #107906
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    I think we have the pitching to compete in October. Not sure about the hitting.

    in reply to: StL 2019 Game 155 thread: Sat 9/21 at Cubs #107805
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    Cards fans were pretty loud following the DeJong homer. Ozuna is getting a lot of strikes called that are out of the zone. Does he have a bad rep with the umpires? A lot of them with two strikes already.

    in reply to: StL 2019 Game 155 thread: Sat 9/21 at Cubs #107779
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    Our best hope to fend off the Brewers is that both Cincinatti and Colorado appear to still be trying to win games unlike the Pirates.

    in reply to: StL 2019 Game 154 thread: Fri 9/20 at Cubs #107442
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    The Brewers are the real threat. Not only they are ahead of the Cubs but they have their final 9 games against three relatively awful teams (Pittsburgh, Cincinatti and Colorado). Pittsburgh doesn’t seem to be trying to win. The other two may pick up a win.

    If the Brewers go 7-2 we have to go 5-4 to win.

    in reply to: Tanking #107440
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    I did a study of the first round picks since the beginning of the draft.

    The first 30 years about 60-65% of the first round picks made the majors.

    The last 20 years leading through 2014 75-80% made the majors. 2015-2019 is still much too early to evaluate.

    In my opinion the Cardinals have been marginal at best with first round picks but some highlights.

    The first decade of the draft (1965-1974) 50% of the first round picks made the major leagues.

    84.6 of the 1985-1994 Cardinal first round picks made the major leagues but with an average career WAR of only 4.40.

    In the 2005-2014 decade 84.6% of the first round picks have made the major leagues. Only Woodford (likely to make it) and Zach Cox (unlikely) have not made it. The average WAR is 6.63 but it is likely to increase with at least Wong and Flaherty with a lot of upside.

    in reply to: StL 2019 Game 154 thread: Fri 9/20 at Cubs #107433
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    Fowler, Ozuna and DeJong are 0 for Chicago so far. Nice wins with your run producers producing no runs.

    I thought Matheny was pretty good with the young guys. Better than LaRussa. Remember how some were moaning about Shildt using Edman in the outfield to get him in the game. Not a bad job of bringing a young guy along. Helsley has also contributed nicely and Gallego has come from nowhere.

    When you get to this point in the season in a tight race you usually do better with players with experience. Remember last year when Gomber, Ponce and Flaherty helped turn the season around in August last year but all three got crushed in the final series with the Brewers with us leading the division going into the last 6 games.

    In spite of all of the moaning about Shildt’s bullpen moves our bullpen ranks tops in almost every category in the league even though we lost our closer.

    in reply to: Simply the worst announcers #106894
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    I thought Joe Buck was a very talented young announce and it appears that the networks agree.

    Bob Carpenter is one of my favorites. Sorry he left.

    Vin Scully was the best ever as far as I am concerned.

    One of my favorites is Steve Selby at Memphis. Most of the other Cardinal minor league guys are not of the same caliber. The State College guy is pretty good and I would rather listen to ground glass falling than the Palm Beach people.

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