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As everyone here likely knows, after just one month in the Florida Complex League, 18-year-old backstop prospect Rainiel Rodriguez was promoted to the much-more-difficult Florida State League (average position player 1.6 years older, 21.1 versus 19.5). This was kinda reckless but also probably necessary, as Rodriguez had nothing left to learn at the Complex League level. The kid was hitting .373 and slugging over .800, after all.
Well, with his Palm Beach assignment he was frankly overwhelmed for awhile. His first 59 trips to the plate resulted in a meager .161 average and just 2 walks against 16 strikeouts.
But lately he’s been quite a bit better. Specifically, since June 22 he’s accrued 11 walks v. 6 whiffs and boasts a solid slash line of .257/.447/.457 in 47 plate appearances. No, .257 is nothing to write home about. But there’s been contact, patience, and pop to go with it. So I’m encouraged.
As for his glovework and gun, there’s good news on that front as well. The leaguewide caught stealing % in the Florida State League is a paltry 21.2% so far this year; young Mr. Rodriguez has shot down 12 of 32 opposing runners for an outstanding 37.5% tally. And the glove? In 31 combined starts behind the plate this season (17 FSL, 14 Complex League), he has just one passed ball, an amazingly modest total for anyone of any age at any level of pro baseball.
All-star break update. Rainiel’s looking good.
Rodriguez has lifted his Florida State League OPS+ to a very solid 117 after starting out miserably with 9-for-56 there. Since then (June 22) he’s had 64 plate appearances and is slashing .292/.453/.563 with 14 walks against just 8 strikeouts.
I’ll provide another update on Rainiel Rodriquez. Understandably he struggled as an 18 year old called up to Palm Beach in his 2nd professional season. It looks like Rainiel is adjusting though and has been playing much better lately and also hitting for power.
I’m unsure how Bob picks a specific date to get splits against or minor leaguers, so I will just show Rainiel’s July splits. But to start here is his overall line which is more than respectable overall for an 18 year old in A ball – .222/.348/436 for a .784 OPS. Note this doesn’t count tonight where Rainiel has upped his OPS to .800 with a HR.
The splits for July – .268/.415/.610 for a 1.025 OPS with 11 walks to 8 Ks in 52 PA. Small sample size for sure, but the arrows are pointing up that he is adjusting to competition that is much older than him.
He’s an exciting hitting prospect. I’ve never seen him play, so a couple questions if I may?
Does he stick at catcher?
Is he a legit defensive catching prospect?
Does he have average speed or is he extremely slow?
Is he athletic enough to switch positions if needed?Thanks to anyone who can help fill in the picture on this kid.
Albert – I think it’s tough to judge because he may still be growing. But he’s not known for his defense right now. He doesn’t have the body type to play up the middle. But he could work out as a catcher or maybe corner infielder or outfielder. It’s so hard to say given the limited amount of time I’ve seen him and the fact that he’s so young. That’s probably not very helpful but I wouldn’t guess that anyone would know for sure right now.
Latest news on Rainiel: he’s now sporting a stellar 137 OPS+ for Palm Beach, which is all the more extraordinary since he started out 9-for-56 there with a craptastic 2/16 BB/K tally.
How things have changed. Over his past 136 plate appearances, the 18-year-old backstop is batting .279/.441/.538 with an exceptional ratio of 28 walks to just 20 strikeouts. The errors, passed balls, caught stealing are all fine — but I’d still like to see the organization try him at another position over the winter, given the glut of good catchers down on the farm and the decidedly spherical physiques of Bernal & Crooks.
Hey Bob, thanks for the update on Rainiel. Glad he’s continued to hit.
An honest question…when evaluating Cardinal prospects, it seems like you could once count on a bit of a bounce from guys coming up to perform at the MLB level. That, obviously, is no longer the case. Is there a deflationary aspect to rating Cardinal farmhands now that they’ve been shown to be one of the poorer developmental teams in the big leagues?
I personally can’t feel too excited about many of our prospects as we’ve witnessed top talent repeatedly flaming out at the big league level. When 2-3 WAR guys like Donovan or Herrera are your big success stories, you know you’re in trouble.
“Is there a deflationary aspect to rating Cardinal farmhands now that they’ve been shown to be one of the poorer developmental teams in the big leagues? I personally can’t feel too excited about many of our prospects as we’ve witnessed top talent repeatedly flaming out at the big league level. When 2-3 WAR guys like Donovan or Herrera are your big success stories, you know you’re in trouble.”
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First, thanks everyone for the remarks over the past month or so. And you’re welcome, 25.
As for the above quoted comment, I rate all prospects in all organizations in a franchise-neutral manner, because (1)they could be traded at pretty much any time, and (2)their big league manager/coaching staff could change without warning.
Also, although I have as much contempt for the job performance of Oliver Marmol as anyone, and general disappointment in both Dusty Blake and Brant Brown, I don’t believe it’s 100% accurate to characterize the past few years as “top talent repeatedly flaming out at the big league level”, or entirely fair to describe Donovan and Herrera as “2-3 WAR guys.”First, pitching. On balance Matt Liberatore has in my opinion been failed by his manager & pitching coach, but he’s nevertheless a solid #3/4 rotation piece right now, improving year-over-year, and still just 25. I don’t think there’s been any other top pitchers come through the Redbird pipeline lately. Matt qualifies as a letdown so far, but no worse than that. (And Pallante, with his league average 100 ERA+ for his career, has actually exceeded reasonable expectations based on his minor league track record.)
We’ll have to see what happens as the slew of southpaws progresses to the majors over the next couple of campaigns — Mathews, Henderson, Mautz, Hansen sort of, and even Braden Davis have shown signs to be plausible rotation candidates sooner than later. As for lesser lefties, Doyle was a grand mistake and Hjerpe can’t stay healthy so I’m not figuring on them at all, except as bullpen possibilities.
In terms of hitters, Gorman is a disappointment but not a flameout, I wouldn’t say. If Nolan played every day, with time off periodically v. the tougher lefties, I think he’d be a 1.5 to 2 WAR contributor. On the other hand Dylan Carlson and Jordan Walker are catastrophes, obviously, Walkers little hot streaks notwithstanding. But the latter two are largely offset by the successful quartet of Nootbaar, Donovan, Herrera, and Winn. Averaging their Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs WAR values, each of those four has been worth between 3.1 and 3.3 WAR per 600 PA’s for his career so far, which is a chunk better than “2-3 WAR.” Here are the details if anyone wants to check my math:
Masyn Blaze Winn 1228 PA’s, 7.0 B-Ref WAR and 6.4 at Fangraphs. Average: 3.3 per 600 PA’s
Ivan Herrera 606 PA’s, 3.8 WAR at Fangraphs and 2.8 at B-Ref. Average: also 3.3/600
Brendan Donovan 1967 PA’s, 10.6 at B-Ref and 9.5 from Fangraphs. Average: 3.2/600
Lars Nootbaar 1796 PA’s, and 9.2 WAR at both Fangraphs & B-Ref. Average: 3.1/600So that’s four above average regulars but no stars. However. However, Herrera just turned 25 and Masyn Winn is only 23 years old, so their best days are very likely still in front of them — stardom is certainly possible with a better manager & hitting coach, and not out of the question even with the current dugout inhabitants. And finally, at the risk of getting overly granular, the minor league BB/K ratios of disappointments Gorman/Walker/Carlson were below average at roughly .40-.45, while the aforementioned successful foursome were in the .65 territory, or well above average.
Brant Brown has done a terrible job, it must be acknowledged. Cardinal batters, particularly the younger ones, are regularly guessing rather than reacting, which leads to awful AB’s where they get themselves out by swinging at lousy non-strike pitches when ahead in the count, and other at-bats where they take strike three on 0-2 and 1-2 counts. Redbird batters commit both of these hitting sins FAR more than any of the Cardinal opponents do.
But Brant Brown cannot ruin a guy who comes with professional plate discipline already built in. That describes Ivan Herrera. And I believe it describes J. J. Wetherholt, Nathan Church, and Rainiel Rodriguez, among others. So I am guardedly optimistic for the future, even if the current MLB staff is misguidedly permitted to stick around.
Anyway that’s my short answer.
Two important things will happen with Rainiel next year. He will experience professional baseball out in cornfield country away from the curated environment at the complex in Jupiter, and he will be on TV so the MiLB TV watchers can get a good day in day out look. Lets hope that all goes well.
ESPN now has Rainiel Rodriguez as the number 3 prospect in the Cardinal system. Hopefully Marmol doesn’t somehow ruin that too.
GS, i’m in no way shape or form disagreeing that he’s our number three prospect, but it’s the lack of intel that goes into a lot of the write ups on all of the national sites. Sometimes I ask myself if they even ever watched a baseball game or just make stuff up to print words.
CF, the rankings are surely a matter of analyzing numbers and nothing else. As I have mentioned, the list of players who raked in low A and never made is surely long. I will also add that the list of players with an unathletic physique as a teenager who did make it is surely short. But I have no problem saying Rainiel’s chances are better than Hence’s or Roby’s.
Bling, to add on, is 2026 the year they give up and move Hence to the BP? Roby was sure looking good until the injury.
Roby has always looked good until the injury. My guess is it is too late to veer off into a rational development path for Hence. At this point, after such long and persistent injury histories, the chance either will take to the mound and be healthier and more resilient than ever is miniscule. It doesn’t matter how great somebody’s stuff is if they have to tear up their arm to produce that stuff. I don’t think there is a metric for that, though, so it doesn’t matter.
CF, the rankings are surely a matter of analyzing numbers and nothing else.
Bling, I always enjoy reading your matter of fact statements when it is clear you havent checked any sources or read any material. You have an agenda that analytics are bad and you want cigar chompers. But then you just completely toss out the info that is from the closest to what is a cigar chomper (scouts) left.
Have you read any of the prospect analysis orgs thoughts on Rainiel? I’ll quote Fangraphs analysis of him from one of their paragraphs.Does this sound like just wish casting based off stats?
Fangraphs
A stocky prodigy, Rodriguez waits until the ball travels deep in the hitting zone before deciding whether to unload. His compact build helps facilitate this, and ensures that he can snatch pitches to his pull side even when he waits an extra beat to swing. He has power to all fields and it manifests in games, as Rodriguez has impressive barrel feel and plate coverage even though he swings with big effort. We don’t know a ton yet about the chase and plate discipline aspect of Rodriguez’s skill set. Rookie pitching didn’t challenge him, and his Low-A sample is still really small. That’s a big variable that we’ll all get to learn more about throughout the second half. Pending a revelation of his patience, Rainiel looks like he’s going to have a potent contact and power blend for a catcher. He is very muscular and physically mature for his age, his physique projects to resemble that of Shea Langeliers, Hunter Goodman, Francisco Alvarez — the kind of bulky-but-athletic type of catcher for which there is plenty of successful precedent. He might not grow into much more raw power, but he already has plenty.
Yairo Padilla is another one with a great write-up on Fangraphs about how they are looking at his physical body and how they expect him to grow and mature.
Eric of Fangraphs does also get in person looks at the domestic players. In his chats, he mentioned in one of them he was on the Cards backfields watching Padilla and watch some Palm Beach games later as well. He did post a video of Rainiel to the Fangraphs YouTube account.
I read a lot Albert, and I think that has contributed to my disdain for analyst spew. Here is one I have saved from a good while ago. It concerned prospect Brett Wallace.
“Wallace does an excellent job of staying loaded on his rear leg. He does it almost too well in fact. When he’s locked in and controlling the at-bat, Wallace can hit any pitch, thanks in part to his wonderful balance. Different from most minor league and amateur players, Wallace rarely gets onto his front side early. His good lower body mechanics enable him to stay back and loaded. One minor “quirk” in Wallace’s swing is his feet alignment. In his set-up, Wallace has both feet pointed at a slight angle toward about the middle of the third base dugout rather than straight out in front of him. As he coils inward, his back foot spins slightly back to a more neutral position before being pulled up and forward by his hips unloading. This is simply a minor “quirk” that you see in some open stance left handed hitters, but it does seem to help him have a quick unload into the ball. When the back toe is pointing toward the catcher, the knee and hip usually follow the same angle which adds some distance for them to travel. Keeping the back toe at a neutral or slightly forward position helps a hitter maintain true lines of angular energy. Wallace starts with a flat bat very close to his ear. He counter rotates his whole body as a loading mechanism, and usually those who do this are slow to unload. Wallace compensates by using his hands to unload, allowing him to catch up to hard fastballs. He has a very direct hand path, and stays inside the baseball well. Wallace does a good job of resisting with his hands on off-speed pitches, which is also helped by his good lower body balance. He uses his top hand well and does a fairly good job of getting his top palm flat. While he does do a decent job of getting his top palm flat, Wallace could stand to get it flat a bit earlier. This will help him stay on plane with the pitch while getting a bit more loft. Getting his barrel to a slightly more vertical position at launch would help Wallace get his top palm flat earlier. Wallace laterally tilts well — his rear shoulder drops while the front shoulder works up — but he appears to be dropping his back shoulder prematurely. The rear shoulder has to drop as you are swinging, not before.”
Its just spew Albert. Rainiel is a nice prospect in low A. We have had a lot of those over the last ten years. If he is still impressive in AA it will be worth paying attention. Most likely, all of you getting lathered up over a low A guy are going to be disappointed yet again.
I’m not saying Rainiel is a lock to be an above average player. He is a good prospect though and has a good ceiling. Whether he pans out or not you cannot determine by stats, scouting, or whatever other type of analysis. There is just inherent risk.
Even that Brett Wallace is purely a scouting one. Scouts will get things wrong at times as well. I just don’t understand what you want though. Prospects by definition are a risk. You said you thought the rankings were purely by stats, but even your own example was counter to that. Do you trust the scouts or do you trust the data?
I just don’t like the matter of fact statements like this when it is not accurate. I may as well start saying things like there are little green men on the dark side of the moon as it has as much truth to it.
Bling
CF, the rankings are surely a matter of analyzing numbers and nothing else.
I know there is a science in measuring, quantifying and then analyzing biometrics data, and other game play data. But my position is – so what. Do you think BDW and MO didn’t have a stack of it on Contreras before spending $85 Million? They surely knew how well he maintains true lines of angular energy, or whatever. But did that tell them he couldn’t even play the position? Obviously not. When they decided to beam Walker up from AA, I read some commentator describing him as ” a stat cast darling”, and I figured that’s probably all Mo needs to know.
Bling, I think you answered a question I didn’t ask. I’m just curious what you like to see in prospects / baseball. I know you do not like analytics at all, but I thought what you liked was more boots on the ground, scout’s based views of a real human being analyzing a player and their intangibles. Call it a cigar chomper per some of your previous wording. I didn’t see 1 sentence in either of the Rainiel or the Wallace report that was analytics based and instead a scout looking at a players mechanics / projecting on them. That is what scouts in the 60s did and scouts still try to do today. Just like 60 years ago, that scouts analysis will be right some times and wrong others as baseball is not a science and there will also be mistakes in player analysis.
Was there something analytics based in those reports that I missed? I guess I had assumed what info you were after would have been a scouts view based off what I thought I understood of you. Is there something else you look for in a prospect to select ones you would put in say the Cards top 10 prospects?
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