Has 2018 already been a successful year?

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  • #70669
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    The question on this thread is “Has 2018 already been a successful year?” I say yes to that, as the club has shown enough promise to where I feel confident that they will be better in the next couple of years than they have in recent seasons.

    It could be very successful if they get to the NLDS. But so far, it is a success.

    • This reply was modified 2 years, 5 months ago by bicyclemikebicyclemike.
    #70672
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I guess it all depends on where you started and where you expected they would be. If you didn’t think the Cards had a chance this season, then I can understand how promise/progress could be considered success.

    For example, Tampa Bay has improved to 87 wins, same as the Cards. I highly doubt they expected to make the playoffs, so their progress from a below-.500 team last year is likely considered success against whatever their target was. (Not only have they missed the playoffs the last six years in a row, TB has finished every season from anywhere between 13 and 25 games behind in their division.)

    On the other hand, the Cardinals’ stated goal all along has been to make the playoffs – same as every year. If they believe they should, but do not, how is that success? I don’t get it.

    My personal suspicion is that two years of missing the playoffs has caused some to lower their standards/expectations. (I repeat that I agree there has been improvement. I just do not equate improvement with success.)

    #70675
    Avatargscottar
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    With the resources this organization has failing to make the playoffs should never be considered a success. Never.

    Same with the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs :(, and maybe a couple of others….

    #70699
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    My expectations coming into the season were a few games above or below .500. I felt our pitching, both starting and relieving, was weak and the main reason the Cardinals would finish in the middle of the division. I also felt Matheny would continue to experiment with line ups and player’s positions, further dimming the club’s chances at wins. And as everyone knows, I felt the bullpen shuttle plan would be a disaster, and weaken an already questionable bullpen.

    Thus with the club realistically in the post season hunt, having gained a measure of stability over the second half, not too mention the fact that a lot of rookies and younger players have helped make that happen – it has been a successful season to this point.

    #70707
    AvatarBob Reed
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    They got rid of John Mabry. That alone makes the season a success for me, as he was holding back this year’s team, and every future team, for as long as he was here.

    How much have things changed since Mabry’s departure? Well, the team OPS is FIFTY points higher since the All-Star break, which is an extraordinary thing, and would be worth over a full season somewhere between 10 and 12 wins….and remember, that’s without contributions from either Tommy Pham or Luke Voit, who are slaughtering the ball for other organizations, now that they’ve been freed from Mabry’s toxic influence.

    The future has no limit, now that Mabry’s gone and taken with him the most counterproductive hitting approach in baseball. Add to that the fact that the club has already topped their Vegas number (85.5)and at least matched the computer model win forecasts, and YES, it has been a rousing success.

    Improve the bullpen, release Dexter Fowler, and get Tyler O’Neill into the everyday lineup in RF, and with average health you’re got a 93-95 win team next year. (Unfortunately, with Mike Shildt’s defer-to-the-veterans neurosis, O’Neill might never start again unless they get rid of Jose Martinez this winter. Shildt is good at some things, but he’s braindead in this matter, as bad as any manager for any team that I’ve observed in 45 years. Played Yadi an insane total of 27 games in a row. Maddeningly re-installed Fowler into the starting lineup in place of Harrison Bader. And now forcing Jose M. — a born DH if ever there was one — to embarrass himself out there, when there is a future MLB star sitting on the bench.)

    It will be disappointing to finish third in the division this year, but there’s very little you can do about the quality of the other teams. Anyway, I’d rather win 90 games and miss the playoffs than win 85 and sneak in as a wildcard team. Call me nuts, but I just want to see high quality baseball.

    #70708
    AvatarOnyxgem
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    ask after the year is over cause missing playoffs for 3 straight years would not be a success at all!

    #70998
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    This thread is not aging well.

    #71004
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Haha on the aging comment. It’s tough to think about success now with the last three slaps in the face. Even the most accommodating of fans have to be a little miffed at the success/non success debate given the magnitude of the team’s implosion against the brewers.

    #71020
    AvatarBw52
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    Still after considering the dead-in-the-water team with Matheny and the playoff contending run with Shildt I think it is a success because there is some life signs with this team.

    #71022
    Avatarforsch31
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    I am very disappointed that the Cardinals couldn’t do a better job once they acquired complete control of their post-season possibilities. However, I still think the year has been a success considering where they were on July 1.

    #71025
    AvatarOnyxgem
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    Pretty simple missing playoffs for 3rd strait year will once again be a complete and utter failure for the organization!

    #71029
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It seems like several of the recent posters are calling the second half a success because the first half was so disappointing.

    While I get that logic, that is not the question on the table. It is the full season, so the comparisons should be to the expectations coming into the year, not from the low point during the season.

    The Brewers and Cubs were in their clubhouses popping the corks last night and it seems like some want to give the Cardinals a participation trophy. I will be amazed if anyone in a position of authority in the organization calls 2018 a success. Learning, yes. Change, yes. Progress, yes. Success, no.

    At Winter Warm-Up in January:

    Mo: “The moves we made are about competing now. Our focus is getting to October.”
    BDW Jr.: “Our goal is to get to October and see how it plays out.”

    How in the world can you call the season a success when you miss your clearly-stated goal? (This assumes the team does not make a miraculous comeback this weekend.)

    #71030
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    When the thread was started, this extremely disappointing Milwaukee series had not concluded. Now when we look at the season, after a blow out loss and a close, frustrating loss the scenario has changed.

    There are really two ways to look at the season. One is from the point of where the club stood around the 90 game mark, when they were a game over .500. At that point they were closer to fifth place than third.

    They did turn that around and return to playoff contention, even leading the wild card chase for awhile.

    Down the stretch that have literally fallen on their faces. The bullpen turnaround that looked to be taking shape in August has returned to a corp of guys who do not shut down the opponent. The offense is streaky, the defense too.

    Looking at the season as a whole and comparing it to recent years, it is a third straight disappointing season. Looking at the season within itself, it looks like the club hit rock bottom in mid-2018, and holds some promise of being on an upward trajectory again.

    #71064
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    This thread is not aging well.

    Hindsight being 20/20 and all, I wanted to get the pulse of the fans before this week happened, because one could see it coming. I think the year is a stark reminder of what the Cards have (a bunch of #2 starters and super utility type players) and how it’s not going to be enough going forward. An honest to goodness, capital A Ace and a star hitter are going to be needed to keep pace with Milwaukee, let alone overtake the Cubs.

    #71067
    Avatarforsch31
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    Any year the team doesn’t make the playoffs is not a successful year if you are only looking at a true definition of success. However, there are always many factors that can influence the perception of success. Looking at the season on July 1 and comparing it to now, there is a very valid reason to call this season a success. Even looking at the way a lot of the posters on here looked at the team’s possibilities at the start of the season, you could say it was a success.

    Looking back at the “2018 Projections” thread, the Cardinals basically outperformed expectations. That could be defined as success.

    #71068
    AvatarBw52
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    Brian -I dont think you can judge this season on preseason expectations because of the changing of the manager.Just going by preseason expectations then there are going to be 29 teams having failed this season by not winning the world series.The stated goal is the playoffs.. I get that..but sometimes there are things that trip you up-injuries/poor performances /etc;.Nobody expected the huge injury factors/lousy inconsistent play by players who had performed fairly consistently over time/ add in some plain bad luck at times and crap just happens.Bouncing back and making the playoff run (not eliminated yet) and breathing some life into a listless team makes this season a success to me.Thats my opinion.Cards haven’t climbed the mountain but they have takern some steps up IMHO.I just don`t see it as a simple yes or no answer.

    #71073
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    I expect to see this topic light up with comments starting Saturday or Sunday and especially on Monday. Strange things can happen in baseball (see 1964), but right now it doesn’t look too optimistic from where I’m sitting. The failure of this season will become apparent only when, or if, the Cards are eliminated.

    Mo: “The moves we made are about competing now. Our focus is getting to October.”
    BDW Jr.: “Our goal is to get to October and see how it plays out.”

    We shall see.

    #71074
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Agree, Ny. It is not over yet, though the mountain to climb seems pretty high right now.

    #71075
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    My last sentence should read….

    The failure OR SUCCESS of this season will become apparent only when, or if, the Cards are eliminated.

    I have to say that the 1964 pennant chase was one of the highlights of my youth.

    • This reply was modified 2 years, 5 months ago by Avatar14NyquisT.
    #71083
    AvatarBob Reed
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    I think I know a failure when I see one.

    Washington? That’s a failure. Dodgers if they miss the playoffs? That’s a failure.

    I checked the link to preseason projections provided by Forschy, and it confirms it: the Cards were “supposed” to win 84-86 games. And that was assuming some sort of contribution from Alex Reyes, I’m sure.

    I’ll reiterate what I said in a previous post. I’d rather play well and win 90 games while missing the playoffs, than hover barely over .500, win 84 or 85 games, and squeak into a wildcard spot. And the difference between those two outcomes, is the quality of play exhibited by other teams — something over which the Cardinals have very nearly zero control. So recite the serenity prayer, pull for your players, and hope for October baseball.

    I’ve already said I think the season was a success. (Mabry gone) + (beat preseason win total forecasts) = success. But for those who think it’s currently a failure: what if the Cards went in to Chicago, beat the Cubs 2 of 3 and knocked the baby bears out of the division title and into the crapshoot wildcard game…against the winner of a Cards/Dodgers game, because the Dodgers lost 2 of 3 over the weekend? Would that make the year a success? Or would the Cards need to beat the Dodgers in the play-in-to-a-play-in?

    #71084
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Not making the playoffs is always a failed season. I don’t want to hear the bull-manure argument “Hey they fired Matheny!” Manifesto would have been fired at the end of the year anyway if they missed the playoffs. The Great Mo fired him and then proceeded to trade 2 players in which it appears he got screwed by the Yanks and Rays.

    #71085
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Bob, we are going to have to disagree on this contention:

    “…the quality of play exhibited by other teams — something over which the Cardinals have very nearly zero control…”

    The Cardinals pitching and defense have a direct and major impact on how their opponents perform. Specifically, had the Cardinals performed better in those specific two areas in the Milwaukee series, they could already have those 90 wins and be in second place with a chance to win the division still. As it stands, the playoffs and 90 wins seem a long way away.

    The Cards have already lost the season series to Milwaukee and are in danger of the same thing occurring with Chicago. 87 wins instead of 86 with no playoffs wouldn’t be much to celebrate about, IMO.

    #71086
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    BHC, it is difficult to accurately assess any trades – especially major leaguers for prospects – in the first couple of months afterward.

    #71088
    AvatarBob Reed
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    Brian:
    The Cards have some control over the Cubs and Brewers when they face them head-to-head. Of course. But those head-to-head meetings constitute not much more than 10% of each team’s schedule.

    I’m saying that the Cards have almost no control over whether the Cubs/Brewers win 88, 91, or 95 games. There is no disputing that. Sorry I wasn’t more clear before.

    Getting back to the preseason projections thread.
    The Cards were forecast by 538.com to win 86 games and get the 1st Wildcard slot. They’ve already exceeded that win forecast total. So how can that be a failure?

    The USA Today had 6 writer predictions and just 2 had the Cards in the playoffs.
    NY Newsday writers? Just 2 of 7.
    The MLB Network polled 15 folks, and just 3 put the Cards in the postseason. Half as many as picked the Mets. Yes, the Mets. Heck, more picked the Twins for October than the Cards.

    That’s 2 of 6, 2 of 7, and 3 of 15. For a total of 7 out of 28, or exactly 25%. So how can anyone think the Cards were supposed to make the playoffs?

    Nyquis said it best back then. “The Cardinals would be the MLB’s surprise team if they get a wildcard.”

    #71089
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    By the way, Tommy Pham is hitting .346 for Tampa Bay heading into today’s game with the Yankees.

    r/Rat

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