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I have said for quite awhile now that one of the Cardinals problems is instability in their lineup. Thus I agree that the manager needs to have a primary lineup that he sticks with 5 games out of 7, and not this nonsense of playing Carpenter at second and things like that. Shildt seems more committed to that than Matheny, so I have hopes that this will be the norm in ’19.
The eight guys Bob mentioned should be the primary lineup next year, assuming no major transactions. Personally I would have done a sneak-peak on that, and played O’Neill in right this entire Cub series. But anyway, the task is then to somewhow find relief pitchers who can throw strikes, and shut down the opposition. Not sure what it is about the Cardinals, but we seem to struggle more than anyone when it comes to a bullpen that can keep the ball in the strike zone. Rosenthal had issues with control, and now we have practically a whole gaggle of arms who cannot consistently throw strikes. Is it an organizational thing? Why does Hudson do well at the AAA level, but lose the strike zone in the majors? Weaver’s command is poor, Hicks, Cecil, even Norris lost it the last six weeks or so.
Mikolas puts on a clinic in how to pitch every 5 days, but the bullpen cannot figure it out. I think Wainwright could be real valuable in that role (bullpen), but of course that depends on what he wants to do, and what other teams might offer him.
It will certainly be interesting to see how this off season progresses. A lot of work to do, yet there is a core of good players so it is not like the sky is falling.
On the attendance, I think part of the problem is league-wide. Today’s games are just too long. Not many people can give five hours (including commute) to a baseball game. Most of us have busy lives, and that is too much time to give in a day. Then you add in the cost, and you have eliminated most of your fan base from attending on a regular basis.
If you define success as making good money, 2018 was a success.
If you define success as playing good baseball, it most definitely was not.
They don’t hand out bronze medals in this game.
Bullpen should be near the top of the fix-it list.Counting on bouncebacks from Gregerson and maybe Cecil (if he is still here,personally I think he is gone for whatever the Cards can get) and Leone to stay healthy all year would be plusses.But you have to find a reliable Lefty.Webb have been hot/cold since being a Card (nice stats but don`t really reflect his story,inablity to consistently find the strikezone.IIRC he is not that great vs LHB anyway.
There are several LH bullpen option available (Deikman,J Wilson,Blevins etc;).Gyorko
s ship has sailed IMHO..Time to retool for 3B.Carp might bee able to field okay at 3B but his rag arm is a big negative.Time to check all other options for 3B ( Munozs glove is still shaky.) Wisdom showed enough IMHO as a backup 1B-3B PH (5-15 Pinch-hitting) for a bench spot.There are several minor FA/rule 5 3B options worth checking out as backup/bench/ spot starter .3B Josh Fuentes Colorado AAA 26 551-180-39-12-14-95 21 BB-103 K .327 BA Rockies need to add him to their 40-man roster or risk losing him Rule 5.
Ty France 3B San Diego R/R 24 years old AAA 94-27-8-0-5-19 .287 13 BB 19 K Rule 5 or option.
Nick Tanielu 3B Houston AAA 26 years old R/R rule 5
277-80-17-1-5-37 .288 19 BB 50 KIt was close to a successful season but I am with those who say you have to play in October for the season to be a success.
Some positive points. at least 14 games over .500 in the second half. Over the full season that pace would have given us 96 wins and a clear division championship.
Good experience for young players that could capault them into strong contibutors. Most of them have to continue to go through the adjustments that will determine their future worth. Wong appear to finally arrive as a solid all-around player in his sixth season. He did hit pretty well last year but his defense was still inconsistent.
The front office was unsuccessful. Both in the off season and at the trade deadline. The Brewers, Cubs and Dodgers helped themselves at the trade deadline and the Cardinals didn’t. Hindsight says that the Cardinals should have gone after Yelich rather than Ozuna. But Yelich would probably not have hit as well at the somewhat pitcher friendly Busch and Ozuna would have hit more than 23 homers at Miller Park.
Hindsight would also say that keeping Voit and playing him at first and Carp at third would have been better but as much as I like Voit I don’t think he would have done as well away from the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.I am mixed on the Martinez vs O’Neill debate. Like most fans I am always agitating for some young prospect to replace a vet with spotty results. However, most major league managers don’t. They usually value experience more than the hopeful fan. I admit I would probably gone with O’Neill with Martinez coming off the bench but that is probably one of 100 reasons that I am not a major league manager. Martinez did misplay a flyball in the first two Brewer games that led to big innings. I was real concerned with three first year starters going against the tough Brewer lineup. Two of the three melted down and several of our good young players tailed off in September after a brilliant August performance.
The fans are not migrating from the ticket office. They’ll sell over three million next year. Why should they do anything in the off-season?
Mspaid – fair point, but I presume you are being cynical about the FO’s off-season plans? I am too for that matter. STL has a great fan base, but it is not guaranteed to stay strong if the organization continues to make questionable decisions about poor performing players. The STL Rams also had a huge following but fans stayed away the last few seasons because management disrespected their loyalty. I see some of that starting to happen with the Cardinals too.
I give Girsch credit for not copping out with “we tried hard, but fell just short.”
Girsch: "Not making the playoffs is not an acceptable answer in St. Louis." #STLCards pic.twitter.com/B4WYmSv0I8
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) September 30, 2018
A couple of really good months does not a successful season make. No moral victories, the expectation was and should be higher. Now there is work to be done in the off-season to position the Cards for success in 19….just wish they had people competent and/or committed enough to get it done.
Take a close look at our GM. He, Mo, and BDW are very smart people.
But they’re lacking an important trait – warmth. Warmth is important when trying to convince FAs to come to St. Louis, in interfacing with the players on the team, and in interfacing with the fans.I am not able to do the research right now but I am interested in looking at Moustakis for 3rd. I feel we need to move away from the more 1 dimensional players like Gyorko, Jose Martinez and Carpenter. We need players who are good hitters and good fielders. I also think we need more on-base hitters and not strikeout hitters. We don’t need 6+ WAR players but we do need more well rounded players.
I would like to have Norris back in the pen next year but not as the closer. I wouldn’t mind Waino back as a bullpen arm but only as a bullpen arm. The pen must be upgraded for next year.
If they don’t land a middle of the order bat via free agency then they should seriously consider make a play for Mike Trout. IMO
If No trout then make a move for Donaldson and make it heavily incentive laden 2 year deal. Then get a veteran starter and at least 1-2 veterans for the pen.
I also wouldn’t mind signing Tyson Ross on a short contract. He could be a reliever or backup starter. I know we have a few guys like Poncedeleon, Gomber, etc. but I wouldn’t mind making a couple big trades to thin out our 40 man roster and improve a couple of positions.
We need to make a play for Kimbrel in free agency.
I’m with you 100% in regards to Jose Martinez, Forschy. Even when he’s hitting really, really well, as he has for the 2016/17/18 Birds, Jose is just a 2-2.5 WAR player per 600 trips to the plate. He is a terrific bench asset, a great pinch-hitter, but too limited for the starting lineup of a playoff contender — especially one that already has Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill. Those are the no-doubt outfield starters, in a rational world.
Matt Carpenter though is a different story. He’s a distinctly better bat, better glove, and better baserunner than Jose Martinez, and this is duly reflected in Carp’s terrific annual WAR totals. Since he became an MLB starter in 2013, Matt is near the very top of N.L. WAR leaderboard, as he ranks number…well here’s the top 10, per Fangraphs:
1) Goldy 32.8 WAR
2) Votto 29.0
3) Cutch 28.8
4) Freeman 28.5
5) CARP 27.2
6) Harper 26.2
7) Posey 25.9
8) Rendon 25.7
8T) Yelich 25.7
10) Arenado 25.0That’s some pretty good company he’s been keeping.
Lastly, Mike Moustakas belongs to a narrow and specific class of player, alongside Starlin Castro, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, and Eric Hosmer among others. These guys are all nice boring solid 2 WAR regulars for their careers, give or take a rounding error. And let it be said, you have to be sooo good at baseball to be an average major leaguer. But average major leaguers should never be mistaken for the better ones.
Average major leaguers trick people, and I mean it happens ALL the time. When they have a really good year, a large percentage of people, even the otherwise intelligent ones, invariably say something silly like: “In terms of talent, that guy is well above average! He just, you know, has a down year sometimes.”
Here’s my ten cent diagnosis. Baseball fans tend to be optimists, so they convince themselves that these average players are in fact very good, but just have bad stretches now and then. But if these optimists would stop and think hard for just ten seconds, they’d realize that’s exactly what an average player is: a guy who’s above average sometimes, and below average sometimes. Or in the case of Eric Hosmer, below replacement level sometimes. For entire seasons.
Which is my unusually long-winded way of saying that Moustakas is markedly worse than the St. Louis version of Jedd Gyorko, who’s been worth an excellent 3.6 WAR per 600 PA’s since donning the birds on the bat (averaging the B-Ref, B-Pro, and Fangraphs values). And Jedd’s under team control for two years at a very modest price — but just one year if the Cards don’t want to exercise the 2020 option.
No Moose is good Moose.
especially one that already has Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill. Those are the no-doubt outfield starters, in a rational world.
Uh, what????????
You think O’Neill is a starter????
ALL HE DOES IS STRIKEOUT!!!!!!
No way in this world should O’Neill be a starter, and probably not even on the team as much as he strikesout. If he doesn’t do something about that this winter I don’t know what we will do with him.
r/Rat
Woody Allen gave us “70% of success in life is just showing up”. Vince Lombardi offered up “The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary”. And Oscar Wilde weighed in with “Be yourself….everyone else is already taken”. None of those famous quotes will end up enduring the test of time greater than Bobby’s “No Moose is good Moose”. Well done sir…..well done!!
Even with his 40% K-rate in 2018 (likely pressing), O’Neill still had a 114 wRC+, bouyed by his stellar .500 slugging %. He is much better than that based on his MiLB data so he will improve and will be just 23 on opening day in 2019. Perhaps he should get a little leeway here just like Bader last year.
Bob, I am not saying that I want to give away Carpenter. I am saying that we should trade him to upgrade the team as a whole. While I understand that his WAR shows he is a valuable player, I also believe that he is not as valuable as those figures would have us believe.
Normally, a hitter with his stats bats anywhere from 2nd to 5th in the lineup. The Cardinals have tried hitting him there and ended up moving him back to leadoff several times. Then, when you look at list of the top WAR since the start of 2016, he is 13th. Also, his K% is up in the last 3 years as compared to his whole career. At almost 33 years of age, I don’t see the situation getting any better. I would rather have a similar hitter that the team will bat in the 3rd or 4th place in the lineup and be able to leave them there.
Cards have major work to do if they want to get back to the post season, if they do their same BS this offseason it will be year #4 missing post season next year!
The “Carpenter can only hit when leading off” mantra is largely a mirage. Carp is a streaky hitter, and whenever the club has put him in the middle of the order he has been in a cold spell.
He mostly hit lead off in 2018, and was poor there early on, then got hot, then finished cold again. Had he hit in the middle of the order, his season would have played out in similar fashion. When he was red hot in July and August, he could have hit anywhere in the lineup and would have mashed.
Mike, I believe the “Carpenter can only hit when leading off” is a mirage, as well. However, the Cardinals continue to put him in the leadoff spot.
He feels like a round peg in a square hole.
A key analysis is to compare the last wave (Reyes, Weaver, Wong, Grichuk, Piscotty, Adams, Diaz) to the present wave (Wong, Reyes, DeJong, Bader, O’Neill, Flaherty, etc). If the new wave does better and excels, we’re in clover.
Brian Walton
Brian WaltonKeymaster
On the other side of the ledger is the new TV contract and increased revenues from MLB Advanced Media. Not included on the MLB books is another potentially huge, but not well-understood revenue source – Ballpark Village.All things considered, my take is this. OK, your own numbers indicate attendance is still strong. Your other sources of revenue are flowing well. Then why aren’t you among the top tier of teams in player payroll spending?
Will the fans accept yet another winter of nibbling around the edges of the strike zone instead of going after the opposition? IMO, there is a talent gap between the Cards and their top opposition that cannot be closed by the young players alone.
Brian, Is that you? Did someone hijack your keyboard? just kidding….
I thought you were a build from within only kind of guy and let the other teams blow their money on free agents. I’m glad you have come over to the dark side… :o) Preach on brother!
I’m all for a set lineup but to not have more LH/RH balance IS a big deal. If I have to watch another one of our RH batters swing and miss at a slider on the outside of the plate I think my head might explode. I’m looking at you DeJong, Bader, O’Neill, Gyroko, and Munoz. We need a LH with pop!
As for Carp batting first only, it is not a mirage. Every stat out there says he bats better hitting leadoff. You can try to explain it away or psychonalayze it to death but it is what it is.
Agree 110% on a left handed bat or two. Should Adams get some starts next year? Is Justin Williams a possibility? He had problems at Memphis, but was on a good track before.
Not a LH bat but I would consider seeing if Anthony Rendon 3B could be had from Washington.nats will owe huge dollars to Scherezer,Zimmerman, and another pitcher (brainfart moment can`t remember his name).Between those 3 I think its like 60-70 million .Rendon will be a FA after 2019 and made 12.3 in Arb this year.He has pop,pretty good batting eye and good glove man.He hit close to .300,44 doubles,24 HRS,92 RBIs.Worth checking out and he seems to be very durable.
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