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“Just say no to Cano. He has no place to play here.
I feel good about trading with Arizona. It seems like a good fit.”I could not agree more, GScott. No to the aging drug cheat Cano, and trade for the two Arizona relievers, Andrew Chafin from the left side, and Yoan Lopez from the right.
Then trade Jose Martinez and other stuff to Seattle for Colome or preferably Edwin Diaz, sign Donaldson and Kikuchi with most of the “Bryce Harper money,” and you’re set for Spring Training.
Oh, I nearly forgot. Release Fowler & Cecil & Gregerson, too. Their rotting carcasses are clogging the 40-man roster.
So maybe a catcher (Kelly or Knizner) a starting pitcher (Gant or Gomber or other) and a DH to replace Nelson Cruz (Jose Martinez) would get the Cards superreliever Edwin Diaz. Seems like a healthy offer to me.
Thanks for the responses, Guys.
I actually agree with you wholeheartedly that re closers there is a psychological component, gscott. I maybe should have said “closers can be found anywhere, just look at infielders Trevor Rosenthal & Trevor Hoffman or catchers Kenley Jansen and Jason Motte. So no smart team takes a potential #1/2 starting pitcher and moves him to relief pitching without giving him a chance to succeed in a rotation role first.)
Last 7 starts of 2017 for Hicks, at age 20, across Low and High-A:
Posted a 1.21 ERA and sub-2.00 FIP, with a 40/9 K/BB, and better than a 4-1 GO/FO ratio, and zero home runs, and just 12.8 pitches per inning.
For that brief shining period of time, Jordan Hicks and his blistering fastball possessed the Perfect Pitcher Profile™. And you don’t move a perfect pitcher to the bullpen. I cannot imagine a reason why I will ever relent in my belief that he should have stayed a starter until he showed he couldn’t be. Not with those numbers cited above.
See, here’s the thing. Even if the long term organizational expectation was the bullpen, you still owe it to both yourself and the kid to see if he can stick as a starter. Because even a #2/3 starter is more valuable (and likelier to stay healthy & effective over a period of many years) than an ace reliever.
The only way the St. Louis front office looks non-crazy in this matter, is if Hicks becomes as effective and durable as Kimbrel or Kenley. And that’s about a 100-1 shot, because those are 2 of the 4 or 5 best relievers in MLB history. What’s really going to happen, is Hicks will maybe be Trevor Rosenthal II, i.e., a sometimes great reliever who breaks down off and on over the next 3-5 years, because that’s what happens to 95-99% of relievers.
RR,
Thanks for the effort/work it took on your last reply.
I guess the easiest way is to ask who you want from the 2nd half pen, next season.The only guys I want to guarantee a bullpen spot are Hudson because of talent, and Brebbia as a reward for previous services rendered.
After them I’d lean toward Waino for experience/leadership, Gant for his multi-inning flexibility, and maybe Gomber. Not because I’m intent on a bullpen lefty. I am one of those weirdos who couldn’t care less if the Cardinal bullpen never has another southpaw in it for the rest of my life. Guys like Shreve and Sherriff and Webb are far too often given innings that their talent doesn’t truly warrant, and 90% due to handedness, in my opinion. But I suspect Austin actually has another gear he didn’t show out of the pen last year — just needs to acclimate to relief pitching, I think. (But I might be nuts, I dunno.)
Release Cecil and Gregerson due to the distraction factor. Release them yesterday would be good. Let Leone & Weaver & Ponce & Mayers battle for a spot over the final week and a half of Spring Training. My drothers, they’d ALL be battling for spots. Again, except Hudson and Brebbia. Also, institute a $1,000,000 bounty for the member of the Cardinal organization, be it janitorial staffer or V.P., who figures out how Weaver has been tipping his pitches. (Late July – late September 2017, untouchable as anyone in baseball, with a 58-8 strikeout/walk ratio. Since then, same velocity, same movement, crap results. Tipping.)
Hicks goes to AA where he belongs, learning the complex craft of pitching as a starter, with his innings lovingly, precisely, purposefully monitored as they should be. He is a rare athlete whose skills are going almost entirely to waste. Imagine him ready to inherit a rotation slot in 2020, alongside Carlos Martinez, Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, and Dakota Hudson. The radar guns would weep.
Any schmuck can close. Converted catchers close, and dominate at it. You don’t take a gifted 21-year-old starting pitcher and relegate him to relief. Not if you know what you’re doing. “He’s our future closer! He throws incredibly hard, and he has a real bulldog mentality!” Yeah, like those are bad things for a starting pitcher. Yeesh.
So that’s the short answer. I assumed you didn’t want the wordy one.
JJ-CF asked:
How about the pen? Before and after the purge. Is it still the biggest weakness by far?First, a belated thanks, for your remarks about my earlier “run-scoring” post. And as for the Redbird bullpen status, let’s look at the 2018 numbers split up by 1st half/2nd half.
First half 4.48 ERA, .740 OPS allowed, 1.40 WHIP
Second half 4.24 ERA, .759 OPS allowed, 1.57 WHIPSo even though Holland was released, and even though Cecil and Gregerson got less work, and even though Hudson and Poncedeleon were (finally) called up as reinforcements, the bullpen STILL pretty much stunk over the season’s second half. The ERA dropped a hair, but that may have been dumb luck, as the OPS was worse and they permitted a lot more baserunners, with 144 walks in just 244 innings. Ack.
And worst of all, September was a tire fire with a 5.09 ERA, .834 OPS, and hateful 1.72 WHIP. That’s what you might expect from one of your lesser relief pitchers over the course of a month. Never from your entire pen.
So I would say this all proves beyond any reasonable doubt your honor that yes, the bullpen is by far absolutely the biggest weakness. Could it be improved, without any outside additions via trade or free agency? Sure! In fact I’d bet on it! But the thing is, “improved” is not nearly enough, because as painful as it is to say, we are starting from a baseline of borderline incompetence. It needs to be massively improved, just to be an average, adequate MLB bullpen.
Then C-2016 remarked:
The Cardinals have done TWO trades of multiple prospects for a starting player during Mozeliak’s eleven year tenure. For Matt Holiday and Marcell Ozuna. They aren’t going to do it for a reliever.And I agree with you, fellow fan. We’ve merely miscommunicated; my earlier point was poorly written, or at least not explicit enough. I’m not necessarily advocating or expecting any specific 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 or 3-for-2 trades for relievers.
Rather, I’m just forwarding the notion that whatever collective Cardinal assets would theoretically be traded away for Paul Goldschmidt — major league or minor league, one guy or two or three or more — those same exact assets should instead be traded in some combination or other for multiple young or youngish, talented cost-controlled relievers from A.L. teams not looking to compete for the playoffs in 2019. Or maybe even for Chafin or Yoan Lopez of the D-backs. Because those two guys look pretty darn good, too.
Poll question: Name the last team that won a World Series without a true “Ace” and true “Middle of the order” bat?
The 2015 Kansas City Royals. Oh, how soon they forget. Best pitchers were journeymen Chris Young and Edison Volquez. No ace or anyone who was ever an ace in his life. Big bat in the middle was either Morales or Moose Tacos with 22 HR’s each, or Hosmer with 18. No classic cleanup type.
There’s more than one way to skin a World Series. Yes they’ve missed the playoffs three years running, but the Cards were real close to excellence in 2018. In fact they were excellent over the second half, playing nearly .600 baseball against a very rough schedule — 50 of 68 games v. winning teams. Just need to upgrade the bullpen (immensely) and maybe take a shot at a medium-cost, high-upside free agent like Kikuchi or Donaldson. Or both.
I can’t believe you didn’t mention Luis Montano or Sander Mora! Clearly you are but a casual follower of the Cardinal farm system, brother grenadier.
Seriously, though, thanks for dropping so many names I never heard of before. I’ll be researching over the remainder of the weekend. And you could not be more right about the GCL and DSL; those rosters are overflowing with intriguing position players. Pitchers, not so sure. And that’s being diplomatic.
Thanks a lot, Pads.
When I tried to enter my rankings, that seemed to be when the whole shebang crashed. Didn’t want to sift through all my grimy Post-it notes again. Whew.The Cards were 4th in the N.L. in runs per game in 2018. Better than the Brewers, and better than the Cubs. Only by a thin margin, but better.
And they were probably even better than that ranking implies. Because they scored just 4.4 runs per game while Mabry was here, and 5.1 runs per game after Mabry/Mueller/Matheny were let go. So really, the offense was very likely the 2nd or 3rd best in the N.L. in 2018.
And they were probably even better than that ranking implies. Because over the second half, while their scoring dramatically improved, they were actually facing tougher pitching than they did during the first half of the season. Post All-star game (the final 68 games) the Birds played just 13 games against N.L teams in the bottom 5 in ERA. But they played 27 games against teams in the top 5. So really, the offense was very likely the 1st or 2nd best in the N.L. in 2018.
And they were probably even better than THAT ranking implies. Because they contested half their games in Busch Stadium III, which played as an extreme pitcher’s park in 2018, suppressing the Redbird offense so much that their road OPS was nearly 70 points higher than their home number, and power was particularly squelched. Yadi Molina and Harrison Bader for example combined to hit 27 of their 32 homers away from Busch. So really, the offense was quite possibly the best in the N.L. in 2018.
So that’s why I don’t want the Cardinals trading for Paul Goldschmidt. Whatever assets they would trade for Goldy, those same assets should go toward fixing the club’s biggest weakness by far, the bullpen, by acquiring Joe Jimenez, Taylor Rogers, Mychal Givens or maybe Paul Fry, or most especially Edwin Diaz.
The mountainous 23-year-old Jimenez held batters to a .421 OPS in September, and his minor league career includes a 1.56 ERA and 241 K’s in just 167 innings with a .171 batting average allowed. He’s huge, healthy, and blossoming into a dominant MLB reliever.
Lefty Rogers posted a 2.63 ERA in 2018, and 0.94 over the second half with a .356 OPS permitted.
Workhorse Givens had a slightly down year overall, but allowed just a .512 OPS in the 2nd half, and in August/September, batters were only 9-for-81.
Diaz should require no intro. Great closer, so we know he can pitch in back-to-backs, and also know he won’t flinch in the 9th inning. Three full years in the big leagues, 191 innings, and his career road ERA is a miniscule 1.73.
If the Cards are determined to add a starter, then I like Kikuchi as a medium risk, high reward type. He makes sense for the budget, both short and long term, and could be a lefty Miles Mikolas, i.e., you pay for good and get great.
Thanks for providing the links, Brian. I should’ve done so myself.
Without getting into the specific grades of any given players, the Cardinal numbers from those two Fangraphs links do not match up with one another. This is because the individual player grades had not been updated until literally the moment the Cardinal list hit the website, while, oddly, the team rankings came out before.In other words, the Cardinal list was updated and published AFTER the alleged #19 ranking came out.
The #19 ranking came out. Then a day or two later the Cardinal prospect list was updated, and their top 40 list was published. I know, this makes zero sense. But that’s how they did it. That #19 ranking reflects not even a snapshot in time. Rather, it reflects upgraded rankings for some players but not for others. It was a real bad idea to release the team values the way they did — they should have waited until after all teams had been updated. Instead they did it before any teams had been fully updated. Go figure.
The Fangraphs St. Louis prospect list includes 37 players rated grade 40 or better.
The site’s supposed #19 ranking includes just 29 players from StL graded 40 or above. So please forget about the so-called #19 ranking.In any case, whether Fangraphs ranks them #9, #19, or #29, the team rankings are obviously only as accurate as the individual rankings. With the advantage of perfect hindsight, last year Fangraphs overrated 3 or 4 Redbird prospects and underrated 20-23 of them. They were objectively terrible, every bit as bad as the notorious Baseball America list from 2010 when the Cards were ranked 29th but had a top 3 system. So this year’s F-G list is going to get some scrutiny. From this corner of the internet anyway. As far as the theme, I don’t have any Cardinal prospects within an overall top 30 list. No grade 60, 65, or 70 players. So I agree 100% that the Cards should not score well at all in the very highest-end talent. Because they have none.
But I think it is quite likely that the massive mistake that Fangraphs and others made one year ago with Harrison Bader is being made again this year with others, specifically others like Hudson, Nunez, Montero, and maybe Urias for starters. But I’ll get into the details in the next post, probably tomorrow.
If you want to see the future, look to the past. Based on his terrific defense & baserunning, and excellent hitting record, Harry Bader should have been a consensus top 50 overall prospect 12 months ago; but instead he didn’t even make anyone’s top 100, except for John Sickels at #92. Fangraphs had Bader well outside their top 141, and specifically concluded that he was “a platoon option in center more than an average regular.”
But Bader was not merely competent defensively, as Fangraphs opined he would be. Instead he was outstanding in the field — exactly as the Baseball Prospectus numbers said he had been throughout the minors, and Clay Davenport’s website also said he had been at every pro stop. Both Davenport and BPro had Bader as a +14 runs CF per 150 games for his professional career, entering 2018. I think Fangraphs should’ve scouted those stat lines.
That’s a coincidence, Brian! When it comes to the Forums outage, you got caught in the middle of a major finger-pointing. While I reacted to the outage with a major middle-finger pointing.
Really, though, we know you were doing everything possible. You have a Musialesque track record here. One golden sombrero won’t damage your rep too badly.
Great to see the return of the internet’s best-informed Redbird forum, Brian. And it’s good to be back.
Speaking just for myself, Wiley, my opinion of Wadye’s potential plummeted this year due in large part to the 35% strikeout rate. It’s just prohibitive for a guy who (1)isn’t even in full season ball yet, (2)isn’t young for his league, and (3)doesn’t hit for much power.
71) Ramon Mendoza
72) Adanson Cruz
73) Bryan Dobzanski
74) Austin Warner
75) Elvin DeJesus
Was just 16 in the DSL and posted the 7th-best wRC+ for his age, at 121. Neither small nor large for a second baseman at 5′ 11″, DeJesus fanned too much but did draw plenty of walks, and also displayed at least a little gap power in his 120 trips to the plate. He’s someone to watch going forward. Or he’s a kid in the Dominican Summer League and nobody should give a darn, and I just like him because his birthday is the anniversary of Lou Brock breaking the stolen base record. And my sister’s birthday. I don’t know.“Giants considering tearing down roster and starting a rebuild” — Las Vegas oddsmakers
The Bovada website has Frisco at 100-1 to win the Series right now. For context, the White Sox are only 65-1. (Cards are 18-1, Brewers 15-1, cubs 10-1.) I’d be fine with the Giants losing 100 games, if they’re interested in my opinion. Couldn’t happen to a nicer fanbase either, the Bonds lovers.
If Seattle tears down, the Cards should absolutely prioritize Edwin Diaz. Over the last three years, here are the Fangraphs leaders in reliever WAR:
1) Jansen 7.2 WAR
2) Diaz 6.4
3) Chapman 6.2
4) Kimbrel 6.0Diaz is in the top 5 in Win Probability Added also. And we know he handle the pressure of closing.
Sorry. Meant to mention this. Jordan Hicks walked 19 batters in his final 23 innings in 2018. We don’t even know if he’s healthy. But he ain’t ready to close.
By OPS allowed, Jordan’s worst two months by far were August and September, with an on-base allowed of .403 and .375. I like the guy a lot, but Derrick Goold got drunk the first time he saw 103 on the radar gun, and he’s never been sober since.
I feel terrible for Hicks. He was never given any chance to hone his craft, to learn anything much about how to pitch. And now that he’s in MLB, every outing will be about nothing more than getting through the inning. With just 20-something innings above Low-A ball before being shoved to the majors, he will never be what he could have been — whether that’s as a reliever or starter. Ten or fifteen years from now, Mo will look back at Jordan Hicks’ career and reproach himself. As well he should. You don’t do to anyone what they’ve done to Hicks. (That’s why it pretty much never happens, with any pitcher, in any organization, ever.)
Forget free agent relievers on the wrong side of 30. Especially the very expensive ones. Most especially the very expensive ones who also cost a draft pick.
I say trade, trade, trade.
There are plenty of excellent young relievers on bad A.L. teams, relievers with 3 or 4 or 5 years of control remaining. The Cards have a very good and cheap DH to trade — maybe the second best DH on the planet right now, after JD Martinez. The Cards also have more elite catching prospects than they can use.And the Cards also have some interesting other prospects like Ryan Helsley, Dylan Carlson, Randy Arozarena, Leandro Cedeno, Jake Woodford and many more who might make a good sweetener, a complementary piece in a deal. And finally and maybe most importantly and overlooked, the Cards have payroll room to take on a bad contract or three if necessary as part of a deal. (Edwin Diaz, Felix Hernandez, and Kyle Seager spring to mind.)
Payroll space can be leveraged in more than one way.
There is a lot of talk about the Cardinals needing to upgrade their bullpen, but the last two years, the Cardinals bullpen has improved one they started the Memphis shuttle and jettisoned under-performing seasoned veterans. So, do you invest in a Dallas Keuchel for the rotation or strengthen your bullpen?
If the Cardinals aren’t going to be players for top-end relievers, they should strengthen the rotation and let the Memphis shuttle be the bullpen.I wish the bolded portion were true.
In fact the bullpen still stunk in 2018, even after releasing Holland and effectively getting rid of Cecil & Gregerson. The pen allowed a second half OPS 19 points higher than the first half, and allowed a September ERA of 5.09 with a bloated OPS of .834, the worst of the season.The bullpen is still in need of massive upgrades. I nominate Edwin Diaz, Taylor Rogers, Paul Fry, Mychal Givens, Joe Jimenez, and perhaps Caleb Frare. I’d like Kikuchi, but if the Cardinal scouts don’t love him, I would trust their judgement.
Give the Keuchel money to Donaldson on a 2-3 year deal. More upside with Donaldson, and he’s safer than Keuchel due to modest contract length, and Gyorko could shift to uber-utilityman while serving as insurance for when Donaldson breaks down.
Davey Johnson and Lee Smith go in, for me.
Big Lee compares favorably in most ways to previous enshrinees like Gossage & Sutter & Fingers, and also scores a robust 127 on Bill James’ Hall Of Fame Monitor, where 100 = likely Hall Of Famer.
I don’t think Davey Johnson requires a supporting argument.
I find your comment to be neither fish nor fowl, CC.
Best of luck to Matheny, wherever he winds up. Mabry however can go jump in a lake. With the ducks and herrings.
Speaking of Moustakas, let’s do a side-by-side comparison between Moose and a Mystery Man. This will only include the years 2016-18.
Moose 1,346 plate appearances
Mys 1,321 plate appearancesMoose .260 average and a 109 wRC+
Mys .259 average and a 111 wRC+Moose turned 30 on September 11 (yeah, I know, happy birthday, ugh)
Mys turned 30 on September 23Assuming they are roughly equal defensively and on the bases, is there any reason anyone can see why a team with either of these guys would go out of their way to acquire the other one? They could not be more alike, really. One hits lefty and one righty but who the heck cares? They’re the same guy.
And yes, the mystery man is Jedd Gyorko. But I’m sure you already guessed that. Jedd’s solid, he’s fine, and he can even play second base and fake it at shortstop in a pinch. Moustakas is just an overrated slugger with a championship ring. He is no upgrade whatever.
I’m not completely opposed to Josh Donaldson though, not at all. He has a recent history of greatness on his side. As recently as 2017 in fact. (Moustakas on the other hand has never been great, ever.) With Donaldson on board for two years and Gyorko as superutility man, the infield could be terrific if J.D. were to get 2/3 of the way back to his 2017 hitting.
Then Elehuris Montero takes over the hot corner on Opening Day 2021. Or maybe even Gorman, if he’s as much of a phenom as he looked this year. (But better to give him at least a bit more time than that.)
Why would Gyorko be dealt? He’s played 126 games a year since joining the Cards — which coincidentally is exactly the same number of games as Dexter Fowler has averaged since becoming a “full-time” player a decade ago.
Jedd is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, plays solid defense at multiple positions, and seems to be a fine clubhouse guy. And he’ll only make a hair over $20M over the next two years combined, while bridging the gap to the next third baseman (hopefully teen phenom Elehuris Montero). Even if they sign Donaldson to play the hot corner for the next two or three years, they should keep Gyorko as an outstanding backup/insurance policy. Munoz may be good in a year or two, but Gyorko is the much better player right now.
What scenario has Jedd traded away?
Appreciate the thorough response, Jager.
I’m not concerned too much about the team batting. Wildly underpublicized is the fact that the 2018 offense was 4th in the N.L. in runs per game. Better than both the Cubs and Brewers.And this was despite playing in a severe pitcher’s park. The Birds had an OPS 67 points higher on the road than at home. That’s an enormous home field hitting disadvantage.
Moreover, if we take away Martinez’ and Fowler’s numbers from last year’s team, the 2018 club OPS actually goes up a little; that’s how horrific Fowler was at the dish. Jose is a DH playing in the wrong league. The Birds would be doing him a personal favor (as Uncle Leo would say) by trading him to the Junior Circuit.
As for Cano, I don’t want PED drug cheats if the team can avoid it. Not so much because of sportsmanship/ethical issues — though that is part of it — but because previous production cannot be trusted as authentic. (See Perez, Delvin.)
I’d rather not trade low on Weaver, too. I swear he must be pitch tipping, and I want the team to figure out how. From late July to late September, 2017, Weaver pitched 45 innings with a stunning 58-8 strikeout/walk ratio, and just 8 runs allowed. After dominating AAA and AA and high-A and college baseball.
Luke looked for all the world like a future #1/2 starter. Heck, like a current #1/2 starter. Then suddenly, with no changes whatsoever in velocity, movement, or location, he became extremely hittable. Gotta be that teams, at least most teams, spotted him tipping, and he is yet to fix it.
Thanks for the feedback on my previous post, guys. You’ve given me a trade idea.
Cards trade Fowler, Jose Martinez, and Hicks
For Edwin Diaz and Felix HernandezCards though have to eat 5 million of Fowler’s salary this year, 10 million next year, and all of 2021. With Hernandez having one year remaining on his deal at $27,000,000, the upshot is Cards increase payroll in 2019 by roughly $16M in 2019, but save $6M in 2020, and get maybe baseball’s best reliever for the next 3 seasons.
Importantly, they also free up right field for Tyler O’Neill, not allowing Mike Shildt any chance to trap the young slugger on the bench, as he did with Bader when he took over, and did again with O’Neill over the final few weeks of 2018. Cards also clear a 40-man roster spot this way, making another bullpen addition that much logistically easier. (I’ll take Joe Jimenez, please.)
If King Felix looks bad in the spring, you just release him. But who knows, maybe he has one 2-WAR season left in the tank.
Why would Seattle do it? Mariners get significant immediate significant salary relief of $16M for 2019, and add an exciting high octane arm they can sell to their fanbase as New Diaz. They also get 3 years of Fowler for an average of less than $6M per year — which is a quite reasonable risk, really. Perhaps the Cards would need to sweeten the deal just a tiny bit more, with say Tommy Edman or Adolis Garcia or Lane Thomas. And that’s okay, too. Edwin Diaz changes games.
