[Bob Reed]

“Giants considering tearing down roster and starting a rebuild” — Las Vegas oddsmakers

The Bovada website has Frisco at 100-1 to win the Series right now. For context, the White Sox are only 65-1. (Cards are 18-1, Brewers 15-1, cubs 10-1.) I’d be fine with the Giants losing 100 games, if they’re interested in my opinion. Couldn’t happen to a nicer fanbase either, the Bonds lovers.

If Seattle tears down, the Cards should absolutely prioritize Edwin Diaz. Over the last three years, here are the Fangraphs leaders in reliever WAR:

1) Jansen 7.2 WAR
2) Diaz 6.4
3) Chapman 6.2
4) Kimbrel 6.0

Diaz is in the top 5 in Win Probability Added also. And we know he handle the pressure of closing.

[Bob Reed]

Sorry. Meant to mention this. Jordan Hicks walked 19 batters in his final 23 innings in 2018. We don’t even know if he’s healthy. But he ain’t ready to close.

By OPS allowed, Jordan’s worst two months by far were August and September, with an on-base allowed of .403 and .375. I like the guy a lot, but Derrick Goold got drunk the first time he saw 103 on the radar gun, and he’s never been sober since.

I feel terrible for Hicks. He was never given any chance to hone his craft, to learn anything much about how to pitch. And now that he’s in MLB, every outing will be about nothing more than getting through the inning. With just 20-something innings above Low-A ball before being shoved to the majors, he will never be what he could have been — whether that’s as a reliever or starter. Ten or fifteen years from now, Mo will look back at Jordan Hicks’ career and reproach himself. As well he should. You don’t do to anyone what they’ve done to Hicks. (That’s why it pretty much never happens, with any pitcher, in any organization, ever.)

[Bob Reed]

Forget free agent relievers on the wrong side of 30. Especially the very expensive ones. Most especially the very expensive ones who also cost a draft pick.

I say trade, trade, trade.
There are plenty of excellent young relievers on bad A.L. teams, relievers with 3 or 4 or 5 years of control remaining. The Cards have a very good and cheap DH to trade — maybe the second best DH on the planet right now, after JD Martinez. The Cards also have more elite catching prospects than they can use.

And the Cards also have some interesting other prospects like Ryan Helsley, Dylan Carlson, Randy Arozarena, Leandro Cedeno, Jake Woodford and many more who might make a good sweetener, a complementary piece in a deal. And finally and maybe most importantly and overlooked, the Cards have payroll room to take on a bad contract or three if necessary as part of a deal. (Edwin Diaz, Felix Hernandez, and Kyle Seager spring to mind.)

Payroll space can be leveraged in more than one way.

[Bob Reed]

There is a lot of talk about the Cardinals needing to upgrade their bullpen, but the last two years, the Cardinals bullpen has improved one they started the Memphis shuttle and jettisoned under-performing seasoned veterans. So, do you invest in a Dallas Keuchel for the rotation or strengthen your bullpen?
If the Cardinals aren’t going to be players for top-end relievers, they should strengthen the rotation and let the Memphis shuttle be the bullpen.

I wish the bolded portion were true.
In fact the bullpen still stunk in 2018, even after releasing Holland and effectively getting rid of Cecil & Gregerson. The pen allowed a second half OPS 19 points higher than the first half, and allowed a September ERA of 5.09 with a bloated OPS of .834, the worst of the season.

The bullpen is still in need of massive upgrades. I nominate Edwin Diaz, Taylor Rogers, Paul Fry, Mychal Givens, Joe Jimenez, and perhaps Caleb Frare. I’d like Kikuchi, but if the Cardinal scouts don’t love him, I would trust their judgement.

Give the Keuchel money to Donaldson on a 2-3 year deal. More upside with Donaldson, and he’s safer than Keuchel due to modest contract length, and Gyorko could shift to uber-utilityman while serving as insurance for when Donaldson breaks down.

[Bob Reed]

Davey Johnson and Lee Smith go in, for me.

Big Lee compares favorably in most ways to previous enshrinees like Gossage & Sutter & Fingers, and also scores a robust 127 on Bill James’ Hall Of Fame Monitor, where 100 = likely Hall Of Famer.

I don’t think Davey Johnson requires a supporting argument.

[Bob Reed]

I find your comment to be neither fish nor fowl, CC.

Best of luck to Matheny, wherever he winds up. Mabry however can go jump in a lake. With the ducks and herrings.

[Bob Reed]

Speaking of Moustakas, let’s do a side-by-side comparison between Moose and a Mystery Man. This will only include the years 2016-18.

Moose 1,346 plate appearances
Mys 1,321 plate appearances

Moose .260 average and a 109 wRC+
Mys .259 average and a 111 wRC+

Moose turned 30 on September 11 (yeah, I know, happy birthday, ugh)
Mys turned 30 on September 23

Assuming they are roughly equal defensively and on the bases, is there any reason anyone can see why a team with either of these guys would go out of their way to acquire the other one? They could not be more alike, really. One hits lefty and one righty but who the heck cares? They’re the same guy.

And yes, the mystery man is Jedd Gyorko. But I’m sure you already guessed that. Jedd’s solid, he’s fine, and he can even play second base and fake it at shortstop in a pinch. Moustakas is just an overrated slugger with a championship ring. He is no upgrade whatever.

I’m not completely opposed to Josh Donaldson though, not at all. He has a recent history of greatness on his side. As recently as 2017 in fact. (Moustakas on the other hand has never been great, ever.) With Donaldson on board for two years and Gyorko as superutility man, the infield could be terrific if J.D. were to get 2/3 of the way back to his 2017 hitting.

Then Elehuris Montero takes over the hot corner on Opening Day 2021. Or maybe even Gorman, if he’s as much of a phenom as he looked this year. (But better to give him at least a bit more time than that.)

[Bob Reed]

66) Ramon Mendoza

67) Carlos Soto

68) John Nogowski

69) Adanson Cruz

70) Kramer Robertson

[Bob Reed]

Why would Gyorko be dealt? He’s played 126 games a year since joining the Cards — which coincidentally is exactly the same number of games as Dexter Fowler has averaged since becoming a “full-time” player a decade ago.

Jedd is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, plays solid defense at multiple positions, and seems to be a fine clubhouse guy. And he’ll only make a hair over $20M over the next two years combined, while bridging the gap to the next third baseman (hopefully teen phenom Elehuris Montero). Even if they sign Donaldson to play the hot corner for the next two or three years, they should keep Gyorko as an outstanding backup/insurance policy. Munoz may be good in a year or two, but Gyorko is the much better player right now.

What scenario has Jedd traded away?

[Bob Reed]

Appreciate the thorough response, Jager.
I’m not concerned too much about the team batting. Wildly underpublicized is the fact that the 2018 offense was 4th in the N.L. in runs per game. Better than both the Cubs and Brewers.

And this was despite playing in a severe pitcher’s park. The Birds had an OPS 67 points higher on the road than at home. That’s an enormous home field hitting disadvantage.

Moreover, if we take away Martinez’ and Fowler’s numbers from last year’s team, the 2018 club OPS actually goes up a little; that’s how horrific Fowler was at the dish. Jose is a DH playing in the wrong league. The Birds would be doing him a personal favor (as Uncle Leo would say) by trading him to the Junior Circuit.

As for Cano, I don’t want PED drug cheats if the team can avoid it. Not so much because of sportsmanship/ethical issues — though that is part of it — but because previous production cannot be trusted as authentic. (See Perez, Delvin.)

I’d rather not trade low on Weaver, too. I swear he must be pitch tipping, and I want the team to figure out how. From late July to late September, 2017, Weaver pitched 45 innings with a stunning 58-8 strikeout/walk ratio, and just 8 runs allowed. After dominating AAA and AA and high-A and college baseball.

Luke looked for all the world like a future #1/2 starter. Heck, like a current #1/2 starter. Then suddenly, with no changes whatsoever in velocity, movement, or location, he became extremely hittable. Gotta be that teams, at least most teams, spotted him tipping, and he is yet to fix it.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the feedback on my previous post, guys. You’ve given me a trade idea.

Cards trade Fowler, Jose Martinez, and Hicks
For Edwin Diaz and Felix Hernandez

Cards though have to eat 5 million of Fowler’s salary this year, 10 million next year, and all of 2021. With Hernandez having one year remaining on his deal at $27,000,000, the upshot is Cards increase payroll in 2019 by roughly $16M in 2019, but save $6M in 2020, and get maybe baseball’s best reliever for the next 3 seasons.

Importantly, they also free up right field for Tyler O’Neill, not allowing Mike Shildt any chance to trap the young slugger on the bench, as he did with Bader when he took over, and did again with O’Neill over the final few weeks of 2018. Cards also clear a 40-man roster spot this way, making another bullpen addition that much logistically easier. (I’ll take Joe Jimenez, please.)

If King Felix looks bad in the spring, you just release him. But who knows, maybe he has one 2-WAR season left in the tank.

Why would Seattle do it? Mariners get significant immediate significant salary relief of $16M for 2019, and add an exciting high octane arm they can sell to their fanbase as New Diaz. They also get 3 years of Fowler for an average of less than $6M per year — which is a quite reasonable risk, really. Perhaps the Cards would need to sweeten the deal just a tiny bit more, with say Tommy Edman or Adolis Garcia or Lane Thomas. And that’s okay, too. Edwin Diaz changes games.

[Bob Reed]

While I love the idea of Kikuchi and Taylor Rogers, I would prioritize a trade for Edwin Diaz — if there’s any chance the Mariners are looking more toward 2021 than 2019.

The Cards have traded with Seattle twice in the past few years, with mutually beneficial results all around I think, so there’s some simpatico there already. And Diaz has many things going for him besides the gaudy saves total in 2018.

1) He’s just 24 years old but already has 3 years of MLB experience.
2) Career ERA 2.64
3) Career FIP 2.56
4) Career ERA on the road an amazing 1.73. No kidding.
5) His other career splits are so consistent it’s almost spooky. Versus righty bats .569 OPS, versus lefties .562. Bases empty .566, men on base .567. Pitching on zero days rest .545, pitching with rest obviously just a little higher.
6) His velocity has held perfectly steady, no sign whatsoever that he’s beginning to break down. At Fangraphs they list his fastball at 97.3 last year, 97.3 the year before, and 97.3 the year before that.
7) He closed the 2018 season in high style, fanning 56 of the final 114 batters he faced, with just 4 bases on balls, and 4 runs allowed over 30 innings.

If he’s not available, he’s not available, but I would make every effort — even if it means taking on the entire underwater contract of King Felix, who has become a sub-replacement level nightmariner. Maybe Seattle doesn’t trust Zunino to bounce back, and would be interested in Kelly or Knizner.

Maybe Jose Martinez looks good to them as a dirt cheap and highly qualified DH replacement for the apparently departing Nelson Cruz. I don’t know how the M’s view any of the Redbird prospects, but perhaps one or two hold some special interest for them. Maybe Ryan Helsley. Maybe Randy Arozarena or Lane Thomas, who knows?

The Cards MUST fix their broken bullpen. Perhaps Paul Fry or Caleb Frare from the left side could help. Or righties Mychal Givens or Gigantic Joe Jimenez. They’re all plausible gets. All good arms on bad teams, and all should therefore be available if you get reach the right price point.

But Edwin Diaz is the prize.

[Bob Reed]

But I don’t want to choose my adjectives. I want to choose your adjectives.

I see now — the Fielding Bible will only give him credit for the defense played while in CF, when they are comparing him directly to Inciarte, Hamilton, and Cain. Not unreasonable. But were I a Gold Glove voter, I still think that Bader was such a surpassing talent in 2018 even in limited CF duty, that he would have certainly made my top 3.

Here’s an indication of how much Bader did, even in just 66 CF games. At Fangraphs they show how Inside Edge classifies catch difficulty, and how many of each type was made by MLB outfielders. In the “remote” category in 2018, the catches with only a scant 1-10% likelihood, the aforementioned N.L. centerfield quartet ranked as follows:

1) Hamilton 3
2) Bader 2
3) Inciarte 1
4) Cain 0

In the category of “unlikely” (10%-40%) it was:

1) Cain 3
1) Hamilton 3
3) Bader 2
4) Inciarte 0

And Bader was 183-for-183 at converting the likely catches (60% or better). I look forward to watching him in Center for the next 4 or 5 years.

[Bob Reed]

61) Ramon Mendoza

62) Juan Yepez

63) Carlos Soto

64) John Nogowski
Outstanding plate discipline, excellent defender at first base, but so, so old. On the other hand, Matt Carpenter was a real old guy with great strikezone control, so….

65) Adanson Cruz
Has a good glove reputation in the outfield, and logged a 145 wRC+ at age 17 in the DSL. Yes, the DSL again! He strikes out too much, but we’re voting in the 60’s here. I have him in my personal top 40 or so.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for all the updates, Brian! Good for Kolten.

Also, the numbers you quoted, which appear to be DRS, are only a part of the SABR Defensive Index, which makes up the other 25 percent of the Gold Glove Award scoring.

The Bader numbers I quoted (and those for the 3 GG finalists) were an average of three publicly available defensive analyses, and so I assumed they would indeed incorporate DRS of course, but also UZR and some other defensive yardstick(s). I wanted the maximum cross section of analytic views.

And maybe I’m picking nits, but I don’t think I would describe Bader’s 2018 CF defense as “very good.” By my lights, other than Jason Heyward’s wonderful 2015 season, Harrison’s was the best defensive season by any Cardinal outfielder in 40+ years. I came along a touch too late for Curt Flood, but I think 2018 Bader beat the best of Van Slyke and McGee and Lankford and Brian Jordan and Edmonds, et. al..

I would characterize Bader’s CF defense in 2018 as tremendous — but you may be right, Brian, that the mere 66 games in CF was overly held against him. I think the voters have taken volume much more seriously since the Palmeiro debacle of 1999. (For you youngsters, later-to-be-disgraced-PED-drug-cheat Rafael Palmeiro played DH back in 1999, and had his best year as a hitter. But he also sprinkled in a couple dozen games at first base. Somehow he won the Gold Glove for the position, flummoxing informed observers. The yoters rightly received plenty of ridicule for that one.)

[Bob Reed]

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs had a terrific Bader article at the end of August. Not mere dry analysis, but good prose, and video highlights. In my biased opinion it was one of the better pieces of the year for Fangraphs — but after all they sorta owed it to Bader, having roundly ignored him up until that point, despite his leading all rookies, either league, in WAR for quite awhile. Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/harrison-bader-rookie-of-the-year/

What you won’t find within that outstanding article is the final defensive values for Bader and the other N.L. centerfielders. So I’ll do that now.

The runs values below reflect an average of Fangraphs, BPro, and B-Ref numbers. I have included just the 3 Gold Glove finalists, plus Harry B.

Bader +13.5 runs
Inciarte +13.3
Cain +12.3
Hamilton +6.4

As you can see, one of these things is not like the others, and it ain’t Bader. Harrison may or may not deserve the Gold Glove this year; there’s no clear choice. But he surely belongs in the top 3. He passes the eye test, defensive metrics test, and Statcast test with flying feet.

In a year when Redbird rookies produced more WAR than any other N.L. franchise, Bader was the best freshman on the team. It would have been nice for him to get some recognition.

[Bob Reed]

You are correct, 25.

The “outstanding individual performances by young guys” was what I was referencing when I said the team was the strongest ever, etc.. My phrasing should have been more clear. Sorry for the confusion, CC.

So I guess I should elaborate a little. In the DSL there were 44 total teams. How much better than the rest were the young Cards? Among 17-and-unders, the Cards had 3 of the top 4 in the entire league in terms of wRC+ (min. 100 PA’s). In terms of 18-and-under, the Birds had 5 of the top 12.

[Bob Reed]

How can you be tired, Brian? In the front row Larry King was yelling at the ump in the 18th inning — just like he did during Babe Ruth’s 14-inning complete game.

[Bob Reed]

56) Ramon Mendoza
Young for the DSL at 17, Mendoza split his season between the keystone and hot corner and slashed .310/.420/.500 for a stellar 162 wRC+.

57) Angel Rondon

58) Juan Yepez

59) Ludwin Jimenez

60) Carlos Soto
Big backstop should have gotten my vote much earlier but I simply forgot about him. Sorry, Carlos, you’re top 30-35 in the organization by my lights, if not a bit better. Soto was 18 for the first month of the season, and was an above average hitter in both the Appy and Gulf Coast Leagues in 2018. Gunned an excellent 42% of baserunners after 36% last year. Too many errors right now, but he did reduce the passed balls this year. Solid career BB/K ratio of 57/72 in 105 pro games.

Forgive us our enthusiasm for the DSL kids, Black Hills. It was a collective great season for the pair of Redbird representative squads, and this is reflected in the number of outstanding individual performances by young guys, especially position players. Strongest by the Cards ever, and stronger by far than any other MLB organization in 2018. It’s very unlikely to ever be repeated, so let’s enjoy it while we can.

[Bob Reed]

In a thread that has “worst defense” in its title, it is perhaps appropriate to focus on Jose Martinez for a bit.

(A bit later, when I get to his career WAR total, I’ve taken the average of Jose’s Fangraphs, B-Ref, and BPro numbers. Those are the only 3 publicly available WAR tallies I’m aware of, so I can think of no more thorough or fair manner of determining his MLB value so far than averaging them together.)

As Brian mentioned, 30-year-old Jose Martinez had a very fine 125 wRC+ in 2018. He has an even better 130 for his career. For context, here are some career numbers for other active hitters, and some Hall Of Famers:

George Brett 132
Matt Carpenter 132
Buster Posey 132
Billy Williams 132
Orlando Cepeda 131
Anthony Rizzo 131
Christian Yelich 130
Yaz 130
Nelson Cruz 129
Justin Turner 129
Roberto Clemente 129
Jim Rice 128
Dave Winfield 128
Carlos Correa 128

So 130 is really, really good. But we knew that already. Here’s the thing, though. Those other players, every last one of them, are or were soooooo much better than Jose Martinez at the non-hitting parts of baseball, that comparing them at all would just seem silly.

Jose Martinez, hitting like a Hall Of Famer, has been worth 2.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances for his brief career. That’s a good player. But only a good one. And again, he’s 30 years old. This makes it extremely unlikely that he’ll get noticeably better at any aspect of the sport. In fact, the odds are he’ll decline. Maybe soon, and perhaps precipitously.

This is not a guy who’s bat forces him to be in the lineup. It just isn’t. We’ve witnessed Peak Martinez, and he’s a bit above average on the whole. Tyler O’Neill, who slugged .700 in AAA this year and .500 in the majors, is already a much much better fielder & baserunner than Martinez. (Tiny Kingman is 54-for-64 in stolen bases since 2014.)

If Martinez is at his best in 2019, he’s a 2.5 to 3 win player. Tyler O’Neill, even with the 40% K rate in 2018, was on a 5 WAR pace, averaging the 3 aforementioned websites. Even with that 40% K rate, he was the one who posted a solid 114 wRC+ for the Cards this year. If that K rate drops (and it should, by a lot, maybe to 30-32% based on O’Neill’s minor league track record) then O’Neill could be a star right now.

[Bob Reed]

What BikeMike said. Word for word.

Trade Jose Martinez in a package deal with Hicks or Reyes or Kelly or Knizner or someone else or two, for Edwin Diaz, and the bullpen is 2-3 wins better immediately. And the infield and outfield defense improves as well. The bench hitting is distinctly weaker, but that won’t sting so bad when more than counterbalanced by the fairly massive upgrades. (How good is Diaz? Forget the saves. His road ERA, career, is 1.73 for three seasons.)

You want a solid defense? With O’Neill in RF and Gyorko at the hot corner, every single member of the starting 8 would have had positive runs values on defense last year, if you average the Fangraphs and B-Ref numbers. Honest.

Release Gregerson and Cecil, dump Fowler, and the 40-man is uncongested enough to grab a reliever or even two from the Japanese leagues — the one place the Cards really know how to scout, apparently.

[Bob Reed]

Errors are indeed ugly. But errors are only part of what determines defensive quality. Range is more important, often much more important.

According to Baseball Prospectus the Cards had MLB’s 13th best defensive efficiency in 2018. Link:https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1905975

Baseball-Reference uses the numbers from Baseball Info Solutions (or BIS), and they had the Birds 30 runs above average as a team, which would be roughly 10th in MLB or so. (Wong and Bader were each +19 runs, and DeJong +14.)

But that’s not even the most optimistic evaluation. Per Fangraphs the Cards had baseball’s 5th best defense this year, at 48 runs above average.
Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

The Cardinals were probably the single strongest defensive team in baseball up the middle, but were generally so-so at the corners, and poor off the bench, with the worst defenders (per BIS) being Jose Martinez and Yairo Munoz at -11 runs apiece, and Dexter Fowler, Francisco Pena, and Tommy Pham all either -5 or -6 runs in 2018.

The problem isn’t the defense. It isn’t the everyday lineup either — the Cards were 5th in the N.L. in runs per game, and just 2 runs behind the Cubs for 4th. (And the Cards were 3rd with more than 5 runs a game, behind only the Dodgers and Nationals, over the season’s second half, despite facing a LOT of excellent teams and pitchers.)

And the rotation had the majors’ 5th best ERA. So it ain’t them.

The bullpen was and is the problem. The only meaningful problem. The Cards’ bullpen had the 3rd worst ERA in the Senior Circuit. But much worse than that, they were tied for dead last in Win Probability Added (WPA). Their WPA was so terrible, that if they’d been merely average, the club would have won 6 more games in 2018. The Redbird pen was 6 wins below average, 11 wins worse than the Brewers, and an extraordinary 14 wins worse than the Cubs.

Link to WPA numbers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Bullpen. That’s the thing to fix. Not defense. Not the middle of the order. Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen.

[Bob Reed]

51) Derian Gonzalez

52) Ramon Mendoza

53) Angel Rondon

54) Juan Yepez

55) Ludwin Jimenez
STL25 gave a great salespitch, to which I would only add that among the 30 DSL pitchers who were 16 or 17 this year, and threw at least 55 innings, the 16-year-old Jimenez had the highest strikeout rate with his excellent 9.81 per 9 IP. I know nothing of his repertoire, but being so young and listed at 6′ 2″ and 165, Ludwin would at least seem to have room to grow in positive ways, in both directions. Add a couple of inches and 25-30 pounds over the next few years, and he’s got the prototypical Flahertyesque pitcher physique. For whatever that’s worth.

[Bob Reed]

Ted Simmons suffers from Duke Snider Syndrome. The Duke Of Flatbush played the same position, at the same time, and in the same city as Mays & Mantle, and of course suffered by comparison with those twin titans of major league history. So even though Duke was and is an easy choice for the Hall, it took eleven tries for him to be voted in by the baseball writers.

Similarly, Simba obviously pales in comparison to the greatest catcher in history, who happened to play in the same division at exactly the same time. (It doesn’t help that Simmons had a LOT of passed balls, esp. early in his career, leading to a poor defensive reputation, rightly or wrongly.)

[Bob Reed]

Thanks so much for all the kind words, folks!

I should have included some links in the earlier post. Here’s the seminal 2011 Koprivica pitch-blocking article, with glowing comments from baseball analytic notables Tom Tango, Mike Fast, Harry Pavlidas, and Marc Normandin among others: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/another-one-bites-the-dust/

And the excellent albeit excessively granular Grantland piece from 2014 by Ben Lindbergh, which includes Mitchel Lichtman’s stab at quantifying game-calling (or pitch-sequencing, if you like). https://grantland.com/features/st-louis-cardinals-yadier-molina-catcher-value-game-calling/

I do partially share yourr misgivings about pitch-framing, BikeMike, in that it’s a shame we can’t compare current and past backstops — like Bench and Simmons. But framing numbers among modern catchers are reliable enough for me to take very seriously, especially for catchers long in the tooth like Yadi.

Thanks again, everyone.

[Author]

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