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@Pads – this is the first year Bader has been injured for a significant period of time. Early in his career he was benched in favor of guys like Dexter Fowler and Jose Martinez. The managers who made those decisions are gone.
Do I think the Cardinals will sign a premium arm? No
Should they? Yes
If they do get lucky and sign someone better, they should be able to trade Mikolas, given so many teams are looking for pitching.
Our rotation has three guys that missed substantial portions of last year, one guy who averages about 150 innings per year, and our 41 year old “ace.”
I won’t be voting for Plummer unless I see he signs a free agent deal with the Cardinals. Right now, I assume he will be on another team next year.
@kscardfan – Bader’s career WAR is 10.6. He has 1451 plate appearances. If you normalize those plate appearances using 600 plate appearances = a full season you get that Bader produces 4.38 WAR per 600. This includes his 2019.
This past year, Bader produced 3.9 WAR in 401 plate appearances. That translates to a 5.84 WAR run rate had he been healthy the whole year.
Starling Marte produced 4.7 WAR in 526 plate appearances. That is equivalent to 5.36 WAR over 600 plate appearances.
So, if you factor in defense, Bader was actually more productive when on the field. Let’s not forget Bader is 5 years younger and will cost several million dollars per year less than Marte (yes, teams have budgets).
Of the players you mentioned:
Nick Castellanos had a .949 OPS, but only produced 3.2 WAR in 585 plate appearances because he is a butcher in the field.
Starling Marte had an .841 OPS.
Bader had a .785 OPS
Taylor had a .782 OPS and produced 2.6 WAR in 582 plate appearances.
Canha had a .746 OPS and produced 2.5 WAR in 625 plate appearances.
I’m not seeing an upgrade there, especially when you factor in the cost to sign Marte.
Also, Dylan Carlson was not good in CF.
Bader is a career 4.5 WAR/600 plate appearances. You aren’t going to find too many center fielders that are upgrades.
Contrast that with we only had two pitchers with greater than 2 WAR last year.
I’ll go with Nootbaar at #8. He had great stints in AAA and the AFL. Did well enough in MLB to seemingly lock down the 4th outfielder role. Showed plus defense. Would probably be a starter for half the league.
MLB work stoppage does not affect minor leaguers except those on the 40 man, according to Baseball America
We also have the issue the Cardinals explicitly stated they are looking for pitching depth, and we all saw how the lack of pitching depth hurt them last year.
I vote Gorman 1. I do look at proximity to majors. The biggest leap is from AAA to MLB. The Second biggest leap is to AA. Gorman has cleared that one and will likely be a contributor next year.
I also have concerns about Walkers ability to stick at 3rd.
Bccran – 2 WAR is considered average. We only had two pitchers who achieved that lofty benchmark. We need pitching upgrades.
Max Scherzer had 7.2 WAR last year. Besides Wainwright and Gallegos, no other Cardinals pitcher produced above 2 WAR. The biggest possible upgrade the Cardinals can make this off-season is pitching.
Bccran – your point is unrelated to Brian’s point. Brian’s point was that injuries happen every year. We’ve lost 5 starters from last year. To say there is no room to add veteran pitchers is at best, not accurate.
Bader getting “expensive” is not a good reason for the Cardinals to move on. The Cardinals are not the A’s, Rays or Marlins who claim poverty to get revenue sharing. They are not the Pirates or Royals who have more real budget constraints. The better argument is Plummer’s OBP would look great at lead off if he can sustain a well-above average OBP at the major league level.
