So what are we going to do?

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  • #176561
    gscottar
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    For those who don’t subscribe to The Athletic, here is the team’s no. 1 priority this winter per Mo and Girsch.

    I agree with Mo and Gisrch that pitching depth should be our highest priority.

    Off the top of my head, I wonder what happened to notable posters such as PhilSkill, BrianNoonan, BobbyReed, JJ-CF, KylMSS, Mags aka MagnoliaCardinal, VegasJim….and many more.

    I have been wondering about BobbyReed and JJ-CF myself. Both are excellent posters.

    #176565
    Brian Walton
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    Bob Reed stepped back last summer. As I recall, he was frustrated with the organization and decided to take a break. However, he made at least one post in the last month.

    jj hasn’t posted in several months.

    I hope everyone has good health and returns this off-season.

    #176567
    Euro Dandy
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    I hope everyone has good health and returns this off-season.

    A very good wish.

    #176569
    jj-cf-stl
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    All good here!

    More reading and less replying is all. Thanks for your concern Pugs, GS and BW.

    #176571
    PugsleyAddams
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    Thanks for the update, Brian. Nice seeing that Bobby is still well. JJ’s disappearance is a puzzler. You know, I have never met an unlikeable chap in all of my years on this site. Even the controversial UFan was………. somewhat likeable.

    #176694
    gscottar
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    #176788
    mudville
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    So they signed T.J. McFarland – His average ERA for the five years before coming to St. Louis is 4.68. In his first year pitching in St. Louis his ERA is 2.56.

    Is Luis Garcia next? – His average ERA for the five years
    before coming to St. Louis is 4.22. In his first year pitching in St. Louis his ERA is 3.24.

    The front office gave McFarland a $2.5M contract. If it wasn’t for the Cardinals elite defense, he might not even have a job this year.

    I don’t know if they’re going to sign Luis Garcia, but without the Cardinals elite defense, his ERA is a full point higher.

    I think the bottom line is that, if they sign Garcia, these pitchers WILL be pitching in front of the Cardinals elite defense, so it doesn’t matter what their ERA’s were before coming to St. Louis.

    #176798
    Thegreyghost
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    2.5 million is pretty reasonable for a LH reliever, compared to what they paid Miller and Cecil, would have no problem bringing back Garcia on similar $….his big issue was throwing strikes apparently he went more exclusively to the 2 seam FB this year instead of the 4 seamer…..from what I observed in the postseason the bullpen is about different looks you can give hitters with a different arm slots and power pitchers mixed in.

    #176847
    Brian Walton
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    This article does a great job explaining why prior ERA isn’t indicative of what teams are looking for. It fits nicely into the discussion here.

    #176972
    gscottar
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    Interesting take..

    #176975
    stlcard25
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    I read that article a bit ago. You can definitely make that case. The downside is if Goldy and O’Neill regress a bit, Arenado stays merely good with the bat and not elite, Carlson doesn’t step forward and the young guys struggle…all of which are at least pretty possible, IMO…then the offense will look pretty paltry once again. Yes, defense is a part of the game but some of the projections in the article are pretty sunny too. Edman and Dejong at average or above seems like a stretch based on their career arcs.

    That said, I could squint and see an above average offense with great defense.

    #176981
    14NyquisT
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    The Cardinals #1 starter (Flahety), has the 45th best projection by Steamer. Their ostensible #2, Adam Wainwright, is down at #60. Miles Mikolas is down at #84. Dakota Hudson is at #161.

    I think that adding a very solid SP should be a priority. We can’t rely on all the guys we have to have their best seasons. There will be regression and injuries, so I think that the FO knows this and are on it.

    #176989
    gscottar
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    I think a better way to phrase what the writer is trying to say would be “based on what we think the Cardinal budget will be they should upgrade the pitching instead of acquiring a bat.”

    If we thought the Cardinals were going to spend another $50M on payroll then I am sure another big bat would be on the wish list, but not many people think that much money is left in the budget, so choices have to be made.

    #177028
    stlcard25
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    #177030
    PadsFS
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    My guess on what the Cardinals actually do is this.

    Sign Brad Miller to be the LH addition to the bench – he crushes RH pitching and doesn’t block Gorman or Yepez at DH, in fact, being a nice complement to them. He can be the starter or the 4th outfielder for Nootbaar if one of the starters goes down.

    Miller – 1yr/$5M

    Next, I think they go with Steven Matz as the dependable starter addition. I’ve warmed up to him after he looked kinda of blah when it was announced. He’s certainly capable of eating some innings and I think he would be nice complement to all of our risky starting options currently in the rotation.

    Steven Matz – 3yr/$30M

    I think they also go after Nick Martinez, who they’ve been mentioned with. Coming from the Japan League, he certainly fits their MO after Oh, Mikolas, and Kim. If not him, I think they go after a high-risk starter like Daniel Duffy.

    Nick Martinez – 2yr/$8M

    I think the Cards will defintely want to improve their late inning bullpen options. Our top guys were pretty gassed this past season, partly Shildt’s fault, but still, I can see them using the Andrew Miller money to get a dominant bullpen guy. My guess is Mark Melancon or Corey Knebel. Both were very good in 2021, I can see a 2yr/$18M deal for Melancon or a 3yr/$27M deal for Knebel. Also, I assume they are getting Garcia regardless. This would help with allowing Reyes and Hicks to try their hand at starting as well so that Gallegos has some reliable help in the bullpen.

    Melancon/Knebel – $9M AAV

    Right now, I have the payroll at $136M and with these 4 additions at 10, 9, 5, and 4 AAV – The payroll finishes at $165M. This fits the Cardinals MO as well of doing a lot of small, around-the-edges kind of additions, rather than anything splashy. Sort of like the offseason before 2016, when we added Gyorko, Leake, Oh, and Broxton.

    Gyorko – Miller
    Leake – Matz
    Oh – Martinez
    Broxton – Melancon

    Hopefully, the Matz and Melancon signings go better than the Leake and Broxton pickups.

    #177037
    mudville
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    I don’t like the idea of signing a 36 year old closer for millions of dollars. Too many bad experiences with free agent relievers. I’m going to say that if they sign Melancon, it shows that the front office has learned nothing from their previous mistakes.

    #177038
    blingboy
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    I think Mo has previously said he doesn’t like signing a closer to a big multi year deal. Don’t remember when or where or the context.

    #177039
    mudville
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    I’m thinking that the rumor of the Cardinals shopping the shortstop market is just a smokescreen for what they’re really up to regardless of what fellow St. Louisan, Greg Amsinger says. It makes no sense to spend $100M, or more, for a player who will block Gorman and send our leadoff man, and gold Glove second baseman, to the bench. This team needs pitching. IMO they need a closer more than anything else.
    I think a reliable starting pitcher is the second greatest need.

    gr

    #177043
    gscottar
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    I kind of doubt Greg Amsinger would be in the know of what the Cardinals are doing. I think he likes fanning the flames of the hype machine. The times I have watched him on MLB Network he acts like a giddy junior high kid.

    #177054
    blingboy
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    I don’t think we will sign a SS, but if we did I think Edman would be dealt. I agree that Mo will focus on pitching.

    #177057
    PadsFS
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    blingboy

    I think Mo has previously said he doesn’t like signing a closer to a big multi year deal. Don’t remember when or where or the context.

    Neither Melancon or Knebel are designated closers. Melancon probably would only get a 1 year deal as well, although I assumed the worst-case contract.

    We have a *closer* technically too in Gallegos.

    Mozeliak has spent big money ($5-14M AAV) on FA RP (Cecil, Miller, Gregerson, Holland, Broxton) and moved expensive-ish pitchers into the bullpen like Martinez and Kim.

    #177176
    stlcard25
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    #177232
    kscardfan
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    From the info and rumors it sounds like Pitching is the focus, and just 2nd Tier Pitchers at that. If you are not going to improve this weak hitting lineup this upgrade to the staff should be a top line starter and a bulking up of the bullpen. I’m betting a Ted Drewes butterscotch concrete that Dejong gets the firstshot at SS. I’m betting a Ted Drewes hot fudge concrete that there isn’t a quality starter picked up. Steven Matz is not the answer, imo. No Change made in the OF. The hot streak at the end of the season, as fun as it was, is gonna hurt this team in the long run.

    #177235
    LACardFan
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    The weakest hitters on the team were 2B, SS and catcher. Not the outfield.

    #177237
    blingboy
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    We made post season so we were competitive. Mission accomplished. No need to spend big to get better. Just be good enough to do it again next season.

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