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If the Cardinals stay on track, attempting to build from within, then its going to be lots of young homegrown types who haven’t gotten to free agency or even to arbitration. It could be hard to spend $170 Million for a while.
The $170M included benefits, IIRC so probably around $147M of payroll. Assuming it would be a bit of a grandfather.
Well our current CBT payroll is $112M. Still a long way to go to $170M.
We have $39M on the books for 2027.
According to what I just read on Spotrac, the top 15 MLB teams have payrolls ranging from $172M to $334M. I don’t see how the Cardinals will ever be able to swim in that water. Their only chance is going to be to manage their affairs intelligently like the Brewers, Rays, Guardians, and some other teams do. When Walker gets to arbitration, they might be able to squeeze 2 or 3 additional years out of him in order for him to nail down some guaranteed millions But when he hits free agency, it’s ‘By-by Cardinals’.
Since we don’t know the team revenues, how do we know they cannot afford a $172MM payroll? We have to take their word for it all.
They could afford that sort of payroll just a couple of years ago. If TV revenues are split between teams, everyone theoretically will have more money to go into the pot. It’s probably something like 5 teams against 25 so the Dodgers and Co will get out voted.
$170 million is less than they receive from MLB.
Under the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) negotiated in 2022, each MLB team pools 48 per cent of local revenues with the total amount split equally between all 30 teams. This results in each team taking in 3.3 per cent of the total—an estimated $110 million USD, if not more. Teams also receive a share of national revenues, totalling around $90 million USD per team.
Since any salary cap or floor is most likely going to be based on the CBT formula or something close to it I figure that is what we should list in these discussions in order to compare apples to apples. The regular 40 man payroll figures are not the figures being used by the negotiators.
In 2024 the Cardinals had a CBT payroll of $207M so yes they can afford $170M assuming attendance gets back to normal and the tv revenue is stabilized.
He said:
MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer says that the players would actually be taking a $500 million paycut if they accepted MLB's salary cap proposal, and reiterated that they will never agree to a salary cap.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) June 1, 2026
She said:
MLB wastes no time responding to union chief Bruce Meyer:
‘Our salary cap and floor proposal addresses our fans’ concerns by leveling the playing field while sharing baseball revenue with the players 50/50 like the other leagues. Under our proposal, Major League players will…— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) June 1, 2026
Both of these articles are kind of long and wonky but some interesting ideas. The summary would be:
1. No hard cap but toughen the luxury tax penalties.
2. Create a real salary floor.
3. Pool all of the local tv revenues together.
4. Start arbitration earilier and raise the MLB minimum.
5. Set aside a small percentage of the profits when a team sells and put it in a fund for the players.
Beyond the Cap, Part 1: Why the Cap Is the Wrong Fight https://t.co/NFGFLLJ4xQ pic.twitter.com/g30Tc4nIlI
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) June 17, 2026
Beyond the Cap, Part 2: The Move Nobody Is Talking About https://t.co/W03qLBYiIL pic.twitter.com/X8uVwicxIx
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) June 17, 2026
MLB today proposed an overhauled domestic amateur-entry system that removes high school players from the draft, makes college players eligible after sophomore year, shortens the draft from 20 to 12 rounds, and cuts bonus pool from current $358.7M to $200M, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) June 18, 2026
Players taken in rounds 13-20 don’t hit the pool allocation unless they get more than $175K each. Very few exceed it.
So worst case,
$175,000 x 8 rounds cut x 30 teams = $42 MM (or less) of potential annual savings for owners. Yet they want to cut pools by almost $160 MM. The additional $120-ish MM that used to go to draft picks would go to owners.
I can’t see how the union would think this is a good idea.
The Athletic ran a poll of 101 MLB players. The vast majority expect a lockout.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7369097/2026/06/18/mlb-lockout-player-poll-owners/
Worth a read – has some nuggets of success of players by academic level, too
MLB’s statements were they didn’t plan on cutting the 120 full time minor league affiliates which is reassuring. But from the rest of those proposals I think their plan is clear. Outsource development of 18-20 year old domestic players to colleges and cut the complex leagues. Then the DSL is will hold slightly more developed players for a year or 2 until they are ready for A ball.
They probably go for something like 120-130 total domestic players in an org so a cut of 1/5th to 1/4th total players each org has to pay. The other takeaway is they seem to want less risk and don’t like spending so much on both really young international and domestic players and want a few more years of development to weed out some players.
The international change I am on board with. The players shouldn’t be getting signed or at least verbal agreements so young. I don’t like the domestic changes and particularly the hard slots. Players already aren’t in a free labor market as they can’t sign where they want (drafted instead) and then taking away financial negotiation makes it completely team controlled and players should be able to negotiate their financial details. It isnt very American to not have any negotiating power over your salary.
I do understand from the owners the desire to cut the risk out of high schoolers but I also think it probably isn’t a fully shared sentiment among all owners. Some teams like the Dodgers are probably more than happy taking risks as the payoffs are higher.
On this front, I think what ends up negotiated in labor deals is players accept the international draft, domestic draft age requirement, but reject the hard slots and such a large draft pool decrease. The players likely lose here overall but I think they concede some ground here as their bargaining chip to avoid a hard salary cap.
I’ve been watching very closely, but haven’t seen any news regarding whether the Cardinals/Royals will ultimately be allowed to play a baseball game on Saturday as tradition has dictated for as long as I’ve been living in this world. I’m really hoping they’ll relocate that soccer game to somewhere like Argentina or Brazil. I’ve also been led to understand that there are several adequate venues located in soccer crazy Uzbekistan. They could probably draw a much nicer gate than in KC and just think of the enormous concession profits they’d rake in from of all the shashlik and vodka sales! I any case, I genuinely hope the big soccer bosses reconsider prior to Saturday afternoon…
Edit…Whoops, wrong thread.
Seems like more non starter type of talk here.
Creation of a “Cornerstone Player” provision that draws from the NBA’s Bird Rights provision.
I don’t know what those clueless owners think. They realize baseball has overtaken the NBA in popularity right? They keep trying to make the league structure like the NBA and that is not what fans want. I don’t want such right restrictions on every little detail of a contract. At this point with how agregious the owner proposals are, the players should strike.
Call me a ‘company man’ if you must. But I really like the Owners’ proposals although I can’t see how it would all fit together. For sure, there’s going to be a work stoppage. History tells us that the owners will start wetting their pants over what the work stoppage is costing them and give in to whatever Boras wants. When you think about it, the Owners really don’t have much of a chance. They have to pay salaries for 350+ employees regardless if they are generating any significant revenue, while the players are millionaires with only themselves to support. And the few who might be feeling pinched can just move back in with their mom and dad during the stoppage.
Is it possible the 2027 draft will remain same? I am thinking the QO rules, competitive Balance rules and ROTY compensation will be based on 2026 results.
I generally agree with this take.
MLB says baseball lacks competitive balance. This season is defying that argument. Column, unlocked and free to read. https://t.co/TQujNP32pw
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2026
Competitive balance and using the Dodgers as the villain is a psychological manipulation to convince fans that a salary cap is necessary. It’s crap.
The one and only reason owners want a salary cap is to increase their franchise values and make them wealthier. Period.
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