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I second what Jnevel just said.
We took on greater risk w/May chasing reward. Rebuilding clubs get that opportunity because guys like May knows he gets his starts.
25’s point on Blooms building depth skills, over Mo the last hand full of years are legit, but I’ll also add that Bills willingness to rebuild, supports Bloom better than the pretend to contend agenda Bill endorsed later on w/Mo.
What do we do with May? I don’t think,he’ll be back next year unless he signs an extension. A qualifying offer could be in order.
If May continues anything like he has been, he will be able to get more years and money than the Cardinals would be interested in. If the Cardinals are in it and decide not to move him at the deadline, then, since they won’t be competing to sign him, the decision is whether to make a QO and hamper his free agency, or try to position as a team a FA wants to deal with, by not making a QO. Maybe I’m old fashioned and its just hard core combat, get all you can all the time.
edit: Another thought is if May is the one to decline the mutual option, then do the Cards make a QO?
In my estimation, the only reason for May to NOT decline the option would be if his performance craters (or he gets hurt). If he continues to pitch well, he will justify a nice multi-year deal somewhere else.
The difference between the option and the QO is “only” about $2 million (based on 2026 QO value). So, if the Cards WANTED to exercise the option, they probably would risk going the extra $2 MM, as well.
However, I am not convinced that the Cardinals will WANT to pay anyone $20 MM or $22 MM in 2027. (Unless the new CBA forces them to reach a higher payroll floor than their steady state.) So, they could decline the option even if May doesn’t.
Either way, based on the rules in place now, I see May as a goner after this year. The trade off is whether to secure value in trade at the deadline (and potentially hurt the 2026 team) vs. hoping they could get the comp pick for the QO being declined and him signing elsewhere. The risk is if he accepts the QO, then they are “stuck” paying him $22 MM-plus. In that scenario, they might trade him in the off-season (instead of by August 3).
The new CBA may alter the QA rules or completely get rid of them altogether so who knows?
Regardless I think it is a moot point because I think May will be traded before the August 3 deadline, along with others. While the Cardinals may still cling to a wild card spot at the deadline Bloom has given every indication that he sticking to the long range plan. Could he change his mind? Yes he could but until he does I am going to assume he is going to do what he has said.
Brian-
Could you say more about the aversion to paying someone $20 mill next year? My read was that part of the ditching high contracts was due to fear that attendance might crater. The drops from 40K per game in 2022 and 2023 to 35K in 2024 to 27K last year suggested a pattern where the next number in the sequence would be, say, the 22K that Cleveland, Washington, and the White Sox have. But instead, we’re averaging a bit over 28K per game. And my sense is that attendance is on the upswing. 4 of the first 12 home games were under 22K, but only 2 of the next 23. Perhaps that’s whether and school being in session, but I’d bet it’s in part because the team is more fun to watch.
I’d guess that ownership would see the unexpectedly high revenue and think about investing some of that in keeping the team attractive. It’s unclear when the farm is going to start producing high end starters, and so signing one fills a need. In contrast, they can field position player without any high salaries.
The other wrinkle is that if a salary floor is implemented for next season the Cardinals might be forced to give out a contract that they wouldn’t have otherwise. A lot of unanswered questions out there.
Bloom has given every indication that he sticking to the long range plan. Could he change his mind?
His boss could change it for him.
While the Cardinals may still cling to a wild card spot at the deadline Bloom has given every indication that he sticking to the long range plan.
I don’t think the Cardinals were expecting to be in contention at all this year. The fact that they are 2.5 games up in the wild card standings may change their minds. It is an easy way to generate an extra couple hundred grand in profits without additional investment.
If Wetherholt wins ROY and May pitches well enough that the Cardinals are confident he will turn down a QO, that would be a phenomenal development.
Two extra picks in the draft next year (assuming they don’t take those away in the new CBA, which they might, because MLB likes to treat the Cardinals differently than other small market teams).
Gags, good questions. Remember that tickets have been and continue to be highly discounted. One cannot compare sold ticket counts and make a direct revenue and profit correlation.
Also don’t forget how much their TV revenue has dropped since Sinclair recently went belly up. So, I am not sure at all that the 2026 revenue is/will be “unexpectedly high”.
I imagine their projections are more sophisticated than straight line. Anyway, if their hand is not forced by the new CBA, I think they are a couple of years away from ramping spending back up. No one is seeing them as a World Series contender now. They are not unlike where they were four years ago in Marmol’s first season. That team won 93 of 162, but didn’t have the horsepower to win even one game in October.
Recent discounting examples:
Tums $10 tix / $10 Cards Cash – offer good for ALL summer Sunday-Thursday games. Pay $10 for a ticket and get $10 in free food/drink.
$99 All-Inclusive Tickets vs. Cubs
$86 National Car Rental Club vs. Rangers
$25 Star Wars Day Flash Sale
$65 All-Inclusive Tickets vs. Mariners
etc…To further what Brian was saying, about two years ago, DeWitt III said the Cardinals sell about 70% of their tickets before the season starts. So, they have rather good projections about where their next year’s revenues will be in terms of ticket & concession sales.
Factor in that they spent all last season unloading contracts with any value on them, May is the highest paid player on the Cardinals this year at $12 million, and yeah, it looks to be a few years before they will willingly spend money.
DeWitt has to make up for all his losses the last five years…
The next CBA help clarify Mays future. Also, it seems like we have depth at starter with Dobbins being ready, Mautz and Mathews near ready. They could conceivably replace May and replace any injuries/inneffectiveness.
His boss could change it for him.
Oh so Bill is now going to be the big spender? That would be a scoop.
It is an easy way to generate an extra couple hundred grand in profits without additional investment.
They might be able to do a soft sell and still get a wild card spot. Decrease expense and increase revenue. That is BDW’s kind of math.
Thanks, Brian-
About the “unexpected” part. I should have specified the time frame. The TV drop was clearly unexpected, but I’d think they would have factored it in before the beginning of the season. And discounted tickets don’t bring in as much revenue as full-price. My specific point is that if I were management, I would have planned for the possibility that attendance this year would be much lower than it is. That gap (between attendance expected for the 2026 season and actual attendance) is found money, eve if discounted because of things like the $10 tix. I’d think that management might consider taking some of that found money and funneling it back into payroll, in part to keep attendance back on the upswing.
LA-
DeWitt said that after the 2023 season, when the Cards 40,013, and had been above 40K every non-COVID year from 2005 except, weirdly, the WS year of 2011. I could imagine that when they were drawing 40K, 70% of seats would be sold before the season, but when attendance is much lower (mid-20K), there would be fewer seats sold before the season and more “hey, they’re better than expected, and kinda fun” seats sold, reducing the percentage sold before the season began to a considerable degree.
You have to consider the new CBA as well. Both owners and players want more local tv contract sharing and owners want 100% sharing. There is also a good chance that teams are required to spend a certain amount and that amount would be higher than the current teams payroll and much higher than what they have in obligations for next year.
Signing someone like May is exactly what the team should do with that money they will need to spend. He is young and they need pitchers and even with most top prospects on the org being pitchers, they aren’t going to have a full rotation any time soon. May offers upside and with his age has less risk of falling off a cliff performance wise than most older FA SP.
Obviously it takes two to tango, but if May seems interested in staying in STL I would maybe offer something like 4 years $80 million right now. I expect if he keeps pitching like he has, he will be looking at maybe a shot at $100 million though.
If he isn’t interested, you explore trading him but the QO is easy to make if it still exists going forward
There are also timing matters to consider. Odds seem high that the labor battle will continue into the fall and winter and maybe spring. The signing market will freeze in the interim.
Paying May $20 MM in 2027 would be an easy move to increase payroll, but there is no clarity as to whether the Cardinals will be required to do so. What I have read speculates that any creation of a floor or a harder cap will not be immediate, but will be phased in over the next few years.
I don’t think the Cardinals will spend any more than they have to until they are more competitive. Trying to guess the 2027 landscape is impossible right now.
But if it was my money to spend, when the time is right, I’d look at locking up core members of the team for the future before paying expensive veterans on big multi-year contracts.
I don’t think the Cardinals will spend any more than they have to until they are more competitive.
Given the overwhelming success of JJ and emergence of Walker, I think the team should likely be targeting 2027 as the start of their real contention window. Those two have helped jump them up timewise. I would hope ownership isn’t painting on 2027 and wanting even further out. Sure sell this year what you can, but try to build a rotation for next year that can support the burgeoning offense that is already very young and controlled outside of Noot for at least 2 more years.
When do you expect their real contention window to begin? Maybe I am overly optimistic but the offense has shown signs that I think it is earlier than the FO expected as this past off-season.
Even if they lock up young players as well which I want them to do, their salary obligations won’t be that high the next couple of years. They typically start off smaller and build up so May being on the books for 4 years doesn’t prevent them from signing JJ, Herrera, etc to a long term deal as their salaries would start getting a good amount higher ($20+ mill) 4 or so years down the road.
There will probably be a bunch of cheapskate teams looking to sign pitchers to $12M one year contracts.
Thanks, Brian.
Uncertainty over the labor situation in 2027 makes some sense to me as a reason for caution. But I agree with Albert that the Wetherholt and Walker revelations this year make 2027 a reasonable target for contention, mostly dependent on starting pitching. May would help that possibility a lot.
I could imagine that when they were drawing 40K, 70% of seats would be sold before the season, but when attendance is much lower (mid-20K), there would be fewer seats sold before the season and more “hey, they’re better than expected, and kinda fun” seats sold, reducing the percentage sold before the season began to a considerable degree.
I actually think it’s the opposite. As attendance was falling, the walk-up 30% shrank to about zero.
This year, the Cardinals are averaging roughly 600 more fans per game than last year. That is about a 2% increase in overall attendance from last year. Most of that is probably fans willing to spend because the Cardinals are actually more competitive this year – i.e., the walk-up fans.
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