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Again, no one is advocating that Heyward should be a prime target of the Cardinals. His name came up in a discussion of bad contract swaps to get rid of DeJong. There are probably other alternatives out there. Or they could just release DeJong and eat the $9M.
$12,166,666 have to include the $3 million for the buyouts of option years.
I have a feeling they won’t eat it or find a taker for it in a trade and he’ll be the utility IF next year. Or they could add $4 on to every ticket price next year and have a DeJong tax. I think most fans would be happy to pay not to have him around.
I’m starting to think Joc Peterson might be a realistic and nice addition. His numbers vs righties are unbelievable.
CFICT, I’m doing the same thing. I would like to see O’Neill plus others traded for an ace starting pitcher. I think the team could get by until Walker is ready. Sign Vazquez to catch.
Any interest in Brandon Nimmo? He is a free agent outfielder, hits left-handed and owns a career slash line of .269/.385/.441/.827 and a 130 OPS+. In addition, he has played all three outfield positions.
As for catchers, what is the read on Navaez. He had a down year with Milwaukee, but his career numbers are good. Again, he is a free agent, hits left-handed and owns a career slash line of .258/.343/.386/.728 with a 100 OPS+.
Been trying to figure out a solid contract swap to get DeJong off the roster. I will throw a few names out there:
– Kendall Graveman (Chicago White Sox): He’s owed $8 million over the next two years. He’s a solid bullpen arm when healthy, but he has had some issues in that department.
– Joe Kelly (Chicago White Sox): His arm isn’t what it used to be, but he’s owed $9 million next year with a team option in 2024 or $1 million buyout. This would basically be a complete money swap with Chicago to add their bad reliever for the Cardinals bad SS. The benefit to the Cardinals would be adding a potential bullpen arm to cycle in with their other injury-prone arms.
– Ryan Tepera (LA Angels): Owed $7 million next season in the final year of his deal. He was solid in 2021. LA may opt to hold onto him in hopes he starts next year off well and they can force someone to pay them through the nose for a deadline reliver. Or, they could just swap his contract for a SS who once showed power.
Good targets KylMss, was there any bad blood between Kelly and the Cards when he left? Tepera is definitely the one that interests me the most.
Also, I posted multiple times before the deadline how the Angels MI was in severe need and DeJong wouldn’t have really been a down grade offensively.
Good list KylMss. Hopefully Mo is exploring all of the options to find DeJong a new home. I would rather do a bad contract swap instead of just eating the money and releasing him. That bothers me from a business perspective.
As for Pederson, he has been on my target list the last couple of offseasons. Maybe it will happen this time.
Another guy to keep your eye on is Cody Bellinger. If the Dodgers non-tender him he might be able to be had on a reasonable one year deal. Would you rather have Pederson or Bellinger?
Pederson is basically a true DH now, as he’s a terrible fielder if DRS, UZR and OAA are to be trusted. Bellinger has the bust factor, but has a much higher ceiling as a guy who could play CF as well.
I tend to agree. I would probably choose Bellinger too, at least on a one year prove it type of deal. His defense is still very good even though he has lost his bat.
$12,166,666 have to include the $3 million for the buyouts of option years.
I have a feeling they won’t eat it or find a taker for it in a trade and he’ll be the utility IF next year.
You may be right. They may give him at least a couple of months and see how it goes before considering a DFA.
I’m expecting Gorman to be more valuable in 2023 than Pederson or Bellinger. All we have to do is play Gorman, and let him see the league for a full season. He is the lefty bat with thump the lineup lacks.
It seems like the best trade chips we will have to upgrade elsewhere will be Nootbaar, Burleson, Donovan, Gorman and Edman (in order of what makes most sense). Obviously I wouldn’t expect more than one or two of them to be traded. In that case, I could see the Cards signing a LH OF bat to bolster the lineup for a year. I would think Walker takes over RF by mid season, and with Carlson in CF and O’Neill in LF, there’s not a huge need to have extra guys sitting around. Could Bellinger or Conforto take over RF and then rotate around CF or LF when Walker comes up?
Or we could add a rental catcher and play who we are. BR has us 1st as non-pitchers and Fangraphs has us 5th. The glaring need is pitching.
DH Donovan
RF Nootbaar
1B Goldschmidt
3B Arenado
2B Gorman
LF O’Neill
CF Carlson
C Knizner
SS EdmanIf that’s our opening day lineup, I won’t be disappointed.
If he becomes available, I think Bellinger makes a ton of sense for the Cardinals. He will be looking for a prove-it contract, so no one will have to commit long-term, high money on him. He still has the upside of being an elite player, but at worst, the Cardinals would basically be signing a left-handed version of Harrison Bader with more offensive potential. He is still a great defensive centerfielder, who runs the bases really well. He’s been in a winning culture and probably needs a change of scenery. I will also point out the Cardinals still have Turner Ward on their coaching staff. He’s familiar with Bellinger from his time with the Dodgers. Maybe he can help Cody rediscover his swing. Shoulder injuries are nasty on hitters. Shoulders and wrists are always the injuries that seem to have lingering effects on hitters. This was his second year removed from his shoulder issue in the 2020 World Series. If he puts in the work this winter, he could be primed to regain some of that MVP-type swing.
Or we could add a rental catcher and play who we are. BR has us 1st as non-pitchers and Fangraphs has us 5th. The glaring need is pitching
Agreed in general. Which is why Nootbaar makes the most sense as a trade chip. If you think he’s a plus RF, then I guess you’d be hesitant…but I suspect he’s a #4 OF who played out of his mind this year. Not only that but Carlson and Walker probably will be two starting OF going forward, with O’Neill still around to give you a great potential. Nootbaar probably brings us back a decent SP for the rotation.
As far as the rankings of the roster, there’s the feast or famine potential (didn’t we lead, or were in the range in most times being shut out?). The same goes with a number of guys who are new or may have had career years that can’t be expected to be repeated. Goldy, Arenado, Edman, Noot, Donovan all fall into that category IMO and will likely be worse in 2023.
The more I think about it, the more I think that they are more likely to trade O’Neill than Nootbaar. They need to keep some lefty hitters around. Other than Yepez, most of the “trade candidates” mentioned above are all the lefties on the team.
Sure it will be slightly frustrating to presumably sell low on O’Neill, but Nootbaar has a better track record of health, is cheaper, and is under team control for longer. Supposedly some in the front office think he has all-star potential (this was said last offseason and I heard repeated somewhere again a time or two during the season). I see a lot of similarities between him and the good version of Matt Carpenter.
If Walker is the long-term RF, I think Nootbaar is the long-term LF.
Maybe I’m overrating the value of handedness, but the top prospects (Walker and Winn) hit right handed and the two switch hitters (Edman, Carlson) seem to be much better as righties than as lefties.
I think they install who they like most between Gorman and Burleson as the primary DH and potentially trade the other. Yepez would basically get relegated to super utility as a convoluted/creative short side platoon plus a little more at dh/cof/cif with Gorman (and occasionally with Nootbaar).
And if the player the Cardinals want to acquire (such as Murphy) is on a rebuilding team, maybe they trade O’Neill to a contender for prospects who could then, with some lesser guys in our system, be flipped for the target. This is one way to try to protect the guys I would consider untouchable like Walker, Winn, Hence, and Graceffo.
The Cardinals would definitely realize a better return on O’Neill than Nootz in any sort of trade. If O’Neill’s placed in the showroom he’s placed there featuring 2 GG’s and a 34 HR season in the Big Leagues. That’ll bring more than tire kickers into the mix.
Nice post CJ. How our young players are typically graded on this forum mostly depends on their prospect pedigree.
The Nootbaar and Donovan types are expected to regress, due to lesser hype which was years in the making. It’s as if their prospect ranking is their ceiling, with no room for continued development, only regression when they surprise with production.
As a wise poster once said, pedigree doesn’t feed the bulldog.
Thanks. Another way to look at it is WAR per 600 PA for the past two years. O’Neill has more playing time with 920 PA to Nootbaar’s 471. I think we would all say they both had some great stretches and some poor stretches during these PA’s.
Equalizing these out to a rate stat with fangraphs fWAR, I think Nootbaar comes in at 4.2 WAR/600 and O’Neill comes in at 4.5 WAR/600. A lot closer than I was expecting. Using Baseball Reference bWAR, it is a bit more lopsided with Nootbaar around 3.7 WAR/600 and O’Neill about 5.2 WAR/600.
Those, like me, who believe in Nootbaar, see him as pretty close in rate production to O’Neill in about half the opportunity. It’s worth noting that this is essentially rookie Noot compared to a somewhat seasoned TON. I think the team would regret trading Nootbaar more than O’Neill.
I fully believe that Noot hit his absolute ceiling this past year. The only thing that gives me pause about trading him is that he seems like an awesome clubhouse guy.
O’Neill has MVP ceiling and he’s shown it. He’s also shown elite defense. His problem is the injuries.
I think if the Cards put both on the market tomorrow, Noot brings a bigger return. O’Neill is, as mentioned above, a sell low guy this off-season and I’m not all that keen to lose him when there are other options to move. Now if next year you see Noot go crazy again and Walker is banging on the door, feel free to move O’Neill for whatever you get. I’m just not there right now.
True. I don’t have any issue with starting O’Neill in LF, Noot in RF, and Walker in AAA and when he’s ready one of them can slot into DH. You could have all three in the lineup together. I’m starting to think maybe Walker does come straight to STL next year. Then if they keep Gorman too, he’d have to cut it at 2b rather than dh–unless Walker goes to CF and pushes Carlson out of the picture.
I feel like that Bader-Montgomery trade was so rare that you can’t rely on being able to do that kind of a swap mid-season again because only teams in the playoff picture are going to be trading for a player like O’Neill, especially if O’Neill is putting up numbers near his MVP-level ceiling again. But they are going to want to trade prospects, which probably won’t be what the Cards are looking for mid-season if they are also in the playoff picture.
IMO if the Cardinals keep O’Neill and trade him mid-season or at the 2023 deadline, that probably means O’Neill fell somewhat flat again or the 2023 Cardinals fell flat and are sellers. If the Cards get experienced talent in return for him, it makes sense to do this in the offseason so the other team, likely a contender (especially given he has only 2 more years of control), has the rest of the offseason to sign a quality replacement player, likely a free agent, for whatever position(s) the guys play that they send to the Cards. Otherwise they would have to be in a similar position of having a top prospect that they trust to step right into what ever hole is created mid-season. Although it may feel like selling low, I’m guessing it would still be more valuable to sell him now than with one less year of control.
And while I sure would have liked to have peak O’Neill last year, especially on the playoff roster against Philly, we know this team can win the division with less production from LF than what I think either Nootbaar’s or Walker’s floor would be.
25, If Noot hit his “absolute ceiling” last season, I’d point at his .248 BAbip last season and counter with his second half as being his ceiling going forward.
Noots .042 points under the mlb avg .290 BAbip in 2022 is unlucky. Donovans .330 BAbip, .040 points over the mlb avg is lucky, and his 14 HBP reminds me of Sosa in 2021. If you’re looking at regression candidates, that overachieved their prospect ranking, Donovan before Noot.
Imagine if Noot and Carlsons 2022 seasons were flipped production wise. Is Carlson now a regression candidate? I doubt you would feel that way because of Carlsons prospect ranking and his minors numbers. You could justify that?
Players continue to develop after their minors career and prospect rankings have expired. I realize you have yrs invested in these rankings and may have sold yourself on the player outcomes and that’s understandable.
Results last season have Noot as our best outfielder, not Carlson or O’Neill, right thru the postseason. If Walker is all that, as you prospect gurus believe, O’Neill and Carlson should be in a CF time share, with Walker in LF and Noot in RF, until either of the CF’rs shows everyday status with their production.
I would hang on to both Noot and O’Neill. Why? Because I really like their defense more than the alternatives we have. I would be tempted to move both Burleson and Yepez for either a catcher like Murphy or a high end starter. I know there is the risk of both of them going off like Arozarena with the bat but both are severely limited defensively. We don’t need two DH only players on the roster. Gorman and Donovan should probably get most of the DH at bats, along with giving other regulars a day off in the field.
The other OF I would consider trading is Carlson. Yes he is still young but it doesn’t appear that he is going to come close to living up to his hype. To me he looks like another version of Colby Rasmus minus the crazy parents.
GS, with O’Neill on the roster, and his often injured status, the 4th outfielder role is very important.
DeLuzio gives us a backup CF when O’Neill is IL, something Burleson or Yepez doesn’t, so I agree on them as trade chips.
Since DeLuzio is an unproven at mlb, depth in CF could be on the FO to-do list. We are really just backfilling for Baders trade, but I like that your focus brought D back into the discussion.
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