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Great for Cornwell! It’s exciting to have a new pitching prospect who has come from off the radar. I didn’t know anything about him when he was drafted. Hopefully, the Cardinals can keep improving him.
I agree. Nunez has been shaky this year (but better lately) and I really think the Cardinals have to trade him if they can find someone who will give equal value for him because he just will not fit at all with the combo we have in St Louis because of his lack of versatility, poor defense, right handedness – all which make any skill he brings redundant to what is already there unless he improves a ton from the power standpoint. Luken Baker is probably in the same boat with slightly more value to the Cardinals because at least he could be a solid late inning down by 1 or 2 pinch hit option to turn the game around with one swing. But honestly, he’s also probably more valuable to someone else than he will be to St Louis so I’d try to trade him too if I could find equal value in a pitcher or outfielder. Of the big bats, I’d keep Burleson and of course Walker and Winn and trade the other 2 above if I could like they did with Elehuris Montero.
Good point on Cho vs Pina. I guess Cho is just the newer shiny penny so he has more luster. And you’re right, after Graceffo, Winn, and Gomez, we haven’t had a lot of breakout seasons this year. I would argue Burleson and Paniagua are well outplaying expectations too, but you’ve shown that with their rapid accession in ranking. And maybe Hence. But such limited sample size from him so far. Everyone else has been around what was expected or maybe a little behind that.
Thanks Brian! I’m always excited to see your thoughts on a new list.
I see we are aligned with Graceffo being #6. And, we pretty well aligned on all the new additions- Antico, Tovalin, Beller, and Loutos. You also added Diorys Guerrero whom I should have mentioned above because he has also been on my watch list as a guy who has gotten great results, but I just haven’t actually seen him so I wasn’t sure exactly what to think of him. I also have no issue with adding Maycol Justo. He’s doing well. It’s just hard to judge Dominican players. I also fully agreed with the jump of Pachecho.
In addition, I also agree with the downward movement of Pages given his last month of really poor performance, but I do think he will right the ship eventually. And although I still really like Austin Love, I understand downgrading him given his poor results. He seems to start games off poorly, get much better, and then fall off a cliff around the fifth inning. I’d love for someone to give an in depth explanation on what is really happening with him to cause his massive inconsistency. I also love how aggressive you are being with your ranking of Granillo. I think he has future MLB closer written all over him and deserves the high ranking. He doesn’t seem to be on anyone else’s list and really should be.
As for disagreement, I’m surprised by where you have both Zane Mills and Trent Baker. To me, both of them are very likely to look like Logan Gragg by next year. They are fine against low level talent, but they will likely top off at average against higher level talent and maybe one day might be a middle reliever in St Louis. We will see. I know very little about Jose Davila, but I was a little surprised by his jump. And I can probably say the same about Luis Pino – I was really surprised about how far up he jumped and who he passed on the list. And finally, I was really surprised to see Patrick Romeri move up. He’s been hurt so often and even when he’s healthy he runs an OPS typically below .700 against competition that he is starting to age past.
And one last challenge- I do think Jack Ralston is a good pitcher with a lot of promise and he’s definitely a top 50 guy if he can get past whatever arm issues he’s having this year. If Bedell can continue to hold his spot, then Ralston should get the same consideration.
Ok! Enough words from me. Would love to hear comments from others as well. Thanks!
I’m curious if Graceffo has been good enough to be top 5 now. With Yepez and Donovan gone, I think he may be. Walker then Gorman then still Liberatore then you almost have to stay with Herrera. Then, who would you value more if it was your organization? Graceffo or Wynn or McGreevey or Burleson or maybe Baez. I think I’d still take Wynn if it were my organization given the volatility of pitchers, but it’s close. But I think Graceffo should be #6 at this point. Should the fact that he was drafted at 5 keep him behind McGreevey at 1? He’s been better so far in every way by quite a bit. Anyone have any different opinions?
Brian,
I’m always excited about the prospect lists. Cardinal Nation gets an A+ for both keeping up with these and really doing a good job of evaluating and projecting players. I know we are getting close to the June prospect list so I just want to share my thoughts and challenges prior to seeing it come out.
First, we will see some changes because some players are definitely coming off. Yepez and Donovan will be at the required 130 ABs. Pallante will be close on innings so that will be a judgment call. Kramer Robertson is gone. And Ali Sanchez now likely will be too. So that’s 4 or 5 openings as it is. Plus, I’m ready to remove Romeri. But I think he’s the only one from previous lists. I could be swayed either way on him as being right at 48-52 range.
So whose coming on? I think Wilfredo Peirera is a definite and I think he comes on in the upper 30’s. My number 2 would be Tovalin. He takes so many good at bats and seems kind of clutch. He’s probably mid 40’s. Right after him is now Antico. Maybe he’s even ahead of Tovalin. I liked him initially as a draft pick – especially as one that cost them almost nothing. He’s so fast and really constitutes our only true center field prospect. And next would be Loutos. His track record is now pretty good as a shut down reliever. I really didn’t see that coming from him so I’m pleasantly surprised for this undrafted player. After that I’m not sure. You either keep Romeri on or add someone like John Beller or maybe one of the young guys like Francis Reynoso or Samil de la Rosa. Or maybe Carlos Guarate.
As far as movers, there really isn’t much. Guys are still in roughly the order you had them in IMHO. The only 2 I think that really move are Jhon Torres continuing to move south and Freddie Pachecho moving up the list with all his strikeouts and now better control. He’s been really good lately.
Those are my thoughts anyway. As always, I’m excited about the new list forthcoming.
Thanks!
Brian,
You mentioned in your article that this is the 5th time Naughton has been optioned to Memphis. Does that mean he’s now out of options due to the new rules not allowing him to be recalled more than 5 times? I know he was the 27th man at least one time so that option wouldn’t count towards his 5. Not sure if that time is one of the 5 you referenced here or not. If he truly is at 5, then I’m guessing he might be next for a DFA if it isn’t Dickerson. I figured Sanchez would be gone this time. He was the only real expendable choice left.
Thanks!
On a positive note today, Tre Fletcher finally had an at bat where he didn’t strike out (fly out to left). I think that was 20 straight strikeouts to start his Year. After that fly out, he proceeded to start another strikeout streak. Unbelievable.
Another note – Our Minor League pitching feels like it’s been getting worse lately- at least above Palm Beach anyway. But our hitting all around seems to be getting better, which is surprising given that Donavan, Yepez, and Gorman were all promoted. I’m thinking we are still going to go pitching heavy in the draft because of this. I would not be surprised if 5 or maybe even 6 of the first 8 drafted are pitchers.
McGreevy got really roughed up last night. In his defense, it was his first experience in AA and he was up against a good team. It will be really interesting to see how Graceffo fairs against the same opponent tonight. Thus far he’s definitely been better than McGreevy both in the brief preview last year and their time at Peoria this year. We are probably likely to see some hits/runs against him. But if he continues to dominate like he did at Peoria, he may be in the St Louis bullpen by September.
The top 12 are definitely the guys I’m excited about who are more proven entities in MiLB. The 2 others that are above the Complex level (and have more that 10 AB’s or innings pitched above that level) that I’m also excited about are Austin Love and Andre Granillo. I know Love has had a tough introduction but his stuff looks really good and he’s had some amount of bad luck. I also certainly like Connor Thomas and think he could be an average player at MLB. And Pages is going to make a really good backup catcher or maybe even an average starting catcher. Everyone else feels like they are packed all together as potentially fringe to average-ish someday MLB talent. That’s still a good place to be in. Especially since we still have those Rookies like Baez or Cho or Mejia or Hence or Willis that very well could be stars someday if things go well for them.
Whether Nootbaar is eligible or not doesn’t really matter since he’s not going to be eligible by week’s end. Donavan and Yepez will be out very soon too at the rate they are batting. This is a prospect list, intended on learning more about who is up and coming so I think Brian has the right intentions with leaving guys like Nootbaar off even if by a technicality he still qualifies.
This is a very good group of 50 players. Throw in the honorable mentions and maybe a few other relief-only guys that are pretty good and this essentially represents everyone we have in the minors with really a chance to make MLB. And the good news is that quite a few of these guys really does have a chance to make it. The Cardinals are just so good at churning out at least mediocre MLB fill-ins.
Brian,
I love the new list. Thanks for including Granillo! I am so impressed with how he handles certain situations. I think he’ll be a fast moving guy. I can’t argue with the list at all. Maybe Trent Baker seems about 8-10 places too high. And, I’d have moved Graceffo up even a little further (even though that’s hard to do given who he is up against).
Also one note. It was mentioned in the article that Beller is at Low A but he is at High A.
Thanks for the great insight on these guys. I appreciate these lists, the daily articles, and the constant roster matrix updates.
Just thinking about the upcoming new list. A lot of guys are probably in similar places, but maybe more solidly so. Plus, we are getting a little nearer to seeing some graduate with big league service time.
I think the risers will be Graceffo and Pages. Graceffo has been absolutely consistently incredible. Pages has just hit so well that he looks like a shoe-in to replace Herrera next year at AAA and make the 40 man roster due to his rule 5 eligibility. And, maybe Moises Gomez, but I’m still not sold on him. But still a tremendous signing as a Minor League free agent nonetheless.
A few guys are probably heading down on the list and some off the list entirely. I think Romeri, Lott, Prater, Edwin Nunez, and Fletcher all should be off and perhaps Pachecho, although that last one is still close. Luken Baker, Holgate, Delvin Perez, and Chandler Redmond all should see solid drops and perhaps Ali Sanchez too as I don’t really think he fits in the future picture anymore.
But what I’m really interested in is who comes on because there is a lot of fairly interesting talent swirling behind the main group. I think Paniagua is a definite top 50. But the others that I’m interested in include quite a few relief-only guys. I totally understand why they are seen as less valuable and volatile, but we have some tremendous ones this season. Those are Granillo (a personal favorite of mine), Dalatri, Beller (my other favorite here), Pope, Loutos, Jose Moreno, and Packy Naughton (if he’s still eligible). Plus, Trent Baker has been a solid starter and probably deserves a spot on the list. And last up, I’d consider Osvaldo Tovalin given where he’s trying to hit at in Florida and his thus far solid results with quite a few big hits. Curious where they all might land.
I’m curious Brian. Did you ever find out why the Cardinals chose to invite Trent Baker to the major league camp this year. It seemed like such a weird move given all the pitchers he leapfrogged. Plus, he really hasn’t seemed like he’s had any real special results.
I agree with a great deal of the list. I think you had to drop Rondon and Prater given the circumstances and lack of any exciting performance. I’m surprised that Fletcher is even still on the list at all (albeit at 50). My only real differences would be that Paniguia should still be on and maybe even as high as the upper 30’s and that I still really like Ralston but I’m not sure what all of his injuries are currently. He has the look/feel of a dominating reliever long-term. I’m also curious what you think about Andre Granillo. Yes, he’s relief-only. But to my eye he looks like a fast moving potentially really good MLB reliever one day. To me, I’d put him in with the HM category as someone to keep an eye on that may really surprise people quickly.
