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24. Davila
25. Granillo
26. AnticoI really love all 3 of these prospects as under the radar guys (although Antico may not be quite so under the radar now). They all made giant leaps last year and may do the same this next season. Granillo is my favorite underrated prospect in the whole system. But I think 22 on my list is realistically as high as I can put him – which equates to 25 here in this list.
There is no way I’d ever give Carlson for Reynolds – not even straight up let alone throwing in Liberatore too. I don’t see the Cardinals ever offering that trade to Pittsburgh. There’s just nothing to be gained. People are down on Carlson because he hasn’t become great or even really good. But he is still good. And he’s very young with lots of time to get to really good. And maybe he doesn’t get there. But he’s a strong bet for 3-4 WAR each year for the next 5 years. Worst case, he’s a 2.5 WAR player. Best case he’s probably a 5.5 WAR player. He’s 3 years younger than O’Neil, a year younger than Nootbaar still and is the same age as Burly and Moises Gomez. If we had put Gomez and Burleson on our MLB roster 2 years ago they would have struggled mightily. Carlson is a really valuable cheap asset to have around and it would be crazy to trade him for Reynolds.
I don’t know how they can defend ranking Lizandro Espinoza as a better prospect than Moises Gomez. While Lizandro may be an ok hitter, he’s likely limited to second base due to his arm strength, has zero power in a 5’7” frame, and doesn’t run real fast. Best case scenario seems to be future AAAA utility infielder. I can’t imagine that he would have any value to another team if we went to try to trade him. But Gomez certainly has some value. He will definitely be able to hit home runs at the MLB level. And, he plays a passable corner outfielder. There’s just the big question of how many strikeouts will go along with it.
And they have Nathaniel Heredia ahead of him too. Nathaniel is a 22 year old bullpen only pitcher with mixed results at A ball. I actually kind of like him, but again, there’s no way he is more valuable in a trade than Gomez.
There’s bound to be a fair amount of guessing here at where Mautz, Hansen, and Rajcic end up on this list. None pitched for us this year (same with Hjerpe). So I guess it’s either we are guessing based on some scouting reports, blind guessing, or we actually saw several outings of these guys in college. I’m in the first camp, which is maybe better than the second camp, but it still feels like I’m totally guessing when trying to compare these guys to our current actual prospects. I think that’s going to cause us to have a lot of differentiation on where we put them. I guess I’m ok with wherever they land! But I’d love to hear opinions from anyone in camp 3 above.
Thanks. Hard to capture everyone! I only thought of Whitley because I was a little surprised when he got waived and no one claimed him. I think the timing of that move helped the Cards keep him.
Brian,
I agree with almost all of your list. One question though- would Kody Whitley not need to be protected? If so, then he’s a definite add. And I’d take off R Mendoza if that were the case. I’d also still like to protect Ludwin Jimenez if possible. But it’s not a big loss if any of those you have not being protected were taken.
I agree BlingBoy. I have Pachecho at 23 on my list. He does have some electric stuff and he’s almost sure to spend some time in the St Louis bullpen this year – likely riding the shuttle. But I also fear that big league hitters will wait him out and take a walk or hit their pitch. But who knows with relievers? Sometimes they can go on a run for a month where their stuff plays up or hitters just hit the ball right at someone and the overall results look good.
12. Baez – I worried about him when they drafted him. I still worry about him now. He has all the physical ingredients to make a great ball player. That’s not really all it takes though is it? Can he really harness all his tools, stay healthy, and play with the grit and determination of a guy with half his talent? If you’re looking for upside though, here he is.
13. Mejia – very young. But playing a premium position and hit well in the DSL as a boy among men (or at least very young men).
Agreed. I think it’s good to post them here.
Glad to see Ralston make the list. I’ve commented on him before. He’s really one of my favorite well under the radar prospects. I still see he and Granillo at the back end of the Stl bullpen in 2024. That’s assuming Ralston can stay healthy which may be a big if. But I definitely think he deserves to be on the list. That curveball of his is so spectacular.
BABiP is a good stat when looking at a single hitter or pitcher and comparing how it affected them from one season to another assuming they didn’t really change how they were throwing or pitching. But that’s really the only great use of this stat. It loses value when you try to compare one hitter to another hitter or one pitcher to another pitcher. That doesn’t mean it’s worthless. It’s just not worth as much. That’s because one pitcher might get lots of weak contact through good pitch movement which in general leads to a low BABiP (Helsley). And another pitcher might give up a lot more fly balls that just happen to not quite go over the fence or line drives that more often than average get caught (Parsons). The latter probably just got a little lucky and the former was good. But it’s hard to use this stat to compare the two.
10 – Bernal
11 – HjerpeI had Thompson at #14. Still shocked we voted him to #9. It will be interesting to see where Brian and Blake put him in their new list.
Glad to see Ynfante make the list! He had a really impressive season. I was amazed at his consistency all year for a kid who is 17. Plus, I love the fact that he has a tall body to grow into.
Thanks Brian. I particularly enjoyed the interviews with Walker and Antico. But in general, it’s always great to hear from each of these guys “in their own words”.
Thompson is a full 2 years older than Liberatore, has probably been removed as a starter to become a lefty reliever only, and had some mixed results in AAA last year – although was good in a small sample in StL. Not sure how that puts him above Liberatore? I get the Bernal pick completely and I still understand the argument for Herrera, but I think Thompson is a stretch here gang.
I was pretty confident in the first 5 and they came in the right order. Now it gets trickier. Herrera had a really odd season where the Cardinals didn’t let him play much, then didn’t send him to the AFL, and now they are openly shopping for a catcher outside the organization. That tells me their faith in Herrera has gone down significantly. Liberatore has been all over the place the past 2 seasons mostly looking either great or terrible with not a ton of in between. But he’s young still and the fact that he can find great sometimes gives me hope. There’s also Baez with all his tools but so far a propensity for getting hurt. There’s Bernal, but he’s still very young and developing good catchers is so extremely difficult. And then there’s Hjerpe who didn’t pitch at all, but looks really exciting. You could throw Machado and Moises Gomez in this group too, but to me they’re the top of the next tier. I’ll just go by gut here:
#6: Liberatore
#7: HjerpeHopefully no one steals Paniagua. But heh, now that we have an open spot, maybe there’s someone of some value we can take. Bullpen depth may be ideal and most likely.
Thomas will be for sure. They may take their chances with Paniagua knowing there will be lots of other options for teams to take. I don’t see anyone else being protected though.
So this one is tough. Burleson was so good this year and last. But what is his MLB ceiling? Probably a 125 WRC+ hitting and a little below average fielding everyday outfielder. And that would be really good. But I think most likely he’s a slightly plus MLB hitter whose a slightly below average outfielder. And that’s pretty ehhh. Whereas Hence best case scenario is an ace starter, but his floor is probably bullpen 8th inning setup. And he’s so far away that we really don’t know the most likely scenario. There’s also Herrera and Baez, but I don’t think we can put either above Burleson or Hence because of the latter two’s far better seasons. So I’ll go with Hence given the higher ceiling but I certainly would be perfectly ok if Burleson is chosen.
I think arguments could be made for Graceffo, Burleson, Hence, Herrera, or Baez (and maybe Hjerpe if you have faith in the unseen and untried). I’ll take Graceffo though. There is something special about this guy. Great stuff. Great control. And an amazing competitor. I get Carpenter vibes with him. He still has some hurdles that he has to figure out. But he could be really, really good. That ceiling seals it for me.
