Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › Community 2023 Top 50 Prospect Voting
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November 26, 2022 at 8:47 pm #207644
14 – Mejia
15 – MautzNovember 26, 2022 at 10:00 pm #20764614 – Mejia
15 – GomezNovember 27, 2022 at 12:53 am #207647Jonathan Mejia at #14.
Freddy Pacheco at #15.The 24-year-old Pacheco may or may not be ready for the majors, but it’s fair to say he has nothing left to prove in the upper minors.
Double-A: 48 innings, 27 hits, 74 strikeouts, ERA a nice even 3.00
Triple-A: 37 innings, 18 hits, 48 strikeouts, ERA of 2.21Pacheco has enjoyed consistent health/durability, logging 62 innings in 2022, 54 in 2021, and 55 in 2019. To my knowledge he’s never visited the Disabled List — and that’s worth something. For his pro career he’s been a strikeout machine, and that’s oh so de rigueur right now. With a 37% K rate and 14.2 whiffs per 9 innings since 2019, he ranks 12th in both among the 2,293 qualified minor league pitchers over that timeframe.
November 27, 2022 at 1:13 am #20764814 Brycen Mautz
15 Pete HansenNovember 27, 2022 at 6:00 am #207649Mejia-Bonus baby Switch hitter w/ some pop where on the infield does he end up? Lots of years to figure it out.
Mautz-This was such a solid draft pick. Worse case he will be your bullpen lefty and bring a solid two and a half pitch arsenal. Best case he can improve his change up and be a solid starter option.November 27, 2022 at 7:48 am #207653I agree with what Bob says about Pacheco, but I have him well down in the 20s due to concerns that his game may not play well at the MLB level. I think MLB hitters will quickly learn to wait him out and take a free pass or tee off on a 3-1 meatball. The K rate would be nice, if they swing, but we have all seen the trouble that too many walks leads to. I would agree that his time is now, or soon.
November 27, 2022 at 8:02 am #207654I understand about Mejia, but there are countless false alarms over good looking 17-18 year old shortstops among the internationals. Its a total craps shoot. I mean, the last I checked, fangraphs had his hit tool rated 25/60. 25/60 ? My inclination is to wait until we see how the transition to stateeside ball goes and get some idea if that hit tool is going to be closer to 25 or to 60.
November 27, 2022 at 8:13 am #207655I agree BlingBoy. I have Pachecho at 23 on my list. He does have some electric stuff and he’s almost sure to spend some time in the St Louis bullpen this year – likely riding the shuttle. But I also fear that big league hitters will wait him out and take a walk or hit their pitch. But who knows with relievers? Sometimes they can go on a run for a month where their stuff plays up or hitters just hit the ball right at someone and the overall results look good.
November 27, 2022 at 8:57 am #20765614NyquisTParticipantI agree with those having Pacheco in the low 20s. Also Gomez in the high 20s. We’re just in the mid teens now and there’s too much talent and potential ahead of these guys plus both are 24 That’s only my opinion of course.
#14 = Mautz
#15 = Hansen
Two young lefties who project into our rotation at some point soon.
November 27, 2022 at 9:48 am #20765714 Gomez
15. MautzNovember 27, 2022 at 12:11 pm #207659PadsFSParticipant#14 – Jonathan Mejia, SS DSL
#15 – Brycen Mautz, LHPNovember 27, 2022 at 12:49 pm #207661Just to chime in on the Gomez discussion I understand some of the skepticism due to his K rate but if I put my analytical spreadsheet down long enough I have to acknowledge that having a guy who leads the minors in HR’s is worthy of some consideration. Tyler O’Neill and Adolis Garcia both had big holes in their swings in the upper minors (still do) but both have also made a significant impact in the majors, albeit inconsistently. I suspect the Cardinals will give Gomez every opportunity to see what he can do, or at least I hope they will.
November 27, 2022 at 1:02 pm #207663In case my vote was too early for this segment,
#14 – Jonathan Mejia
#15 – Alec WillisNovember 27, 2022 at 1:11 pm #20766514. Mautz
15. MeijaNovember 27, 2022 at 1:13 pm #20766614. Gomez
15. MautzNovember 27, 2022 at 1:20 pm #20766714 Gomez
15 Willis was very impressive in his brief debut. I could see him having a breakthrough year next year. He has size and projectability.November 27, 2022 at 1:55 pm #207670Tyler O’Neill and Adolis Garcia both had big holes in their swings in the upper minors (still do) but both have also made a significant impact in the majors, albeit inconsistently.
O’Neill consistently had K rates in the 20s during his time in the upper minors. Garcia was even lower until his big final year in Memphis, which just edged over 30%. To his credit, he’s kept the Ks a little more under control than you’d expect during his time in Texas.
Gomez from A+ up, by stop: 33.5% (A+), 38.2% (AA), 35.0% (AA) and 34.4% (AAA)
Upper 20s K rates limit you unless you’re an elite defender or have massive power. Mid 30s K rates make you a real risk and rarely a full time starter. Only one qualified batter had a 34% or worse K rate this year…Patrick Wisdom. Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano reached that mark in 2021. There were 6 at that level in 2020. In the entire decade of the 2010s, only 8 qualified batters were that undisciplined.
Point is…Gomez has a tough hill to climb. He probably has the chops to be a 4th OF type, and I agree that the Cards will give him a shot. In this range, is that enough to vote for him over guys who have a chance to be quite a bit more? It’s not for me, but some love the proximity and if you’re just looking for a guy who will probably play in St Louis at some point, he’s a safer bet than a guy like Mejia. Mejia got a 2nd round type bonus for a reason, so that’s why he got my vote despite his level.
November 27, 2022 at 2:24 pm #207672The Cardinals are not an organization that takes kindly to players striking out at the MLB level.
November 28, 2022 at 10:12 am #207693PadsFSParticipantI mean, if Gomez had a good K%, he would be a top 5 prospect or in the majors already. We are voting in the mid-teens. That’s about right for a guy like him. Voting for him here means you are anticipating a major adjustment so it’s certainly going to be a divided pick.
In 10 years of AAA, the Cardinals only had one player, David Washington, get to that high of a K%. Spangenberg was up there with him this year as well actually.
In all of AAA, the only major leaguers that lasted a decent amount of time with that kind of K% in the minors are Franklin Barreto, Jorge Alfaro, Jacoby Jones, Matt Davidson, and Joey Gallo that I can tell.
No matter how well he hits, it isn’t a good track record if he doesn’t adjust.
November 28, 2022 at 11:47 am #207697LACF, the fans complain but I have seen little evidence that the teams doesnt tolerate K’s as long as other positive results are there
November 28, 2022 at 3:44 pm #207705Very tight voting between Mejia, Mautz, and Gomez.
November 28, 2022 at 5:47 pm #207710LACF, the fans complain but I have seen little evidence that the teams doesnt tolerate K’s as long as other positive results are there
They were sending Bader up and down because of his 28% K rate in the majors, and he was a standout defender.
November 28, 2022 at 11:09 pm #207716Actually Bader proves my point. In 2018 his K rate was higher than 2019 when he got sent down. The difference was in 2018 he was hitting .260 and in 2019 he was hitting .200. Só the high K rate was tolerated as long as he way hitting.
November 29, 2022 at 7:02 am #207719As we await voting to wrap up on this round I wanted to toss out Connor Thomas for discussion. I think he’s only received one vote so far but I think he deserves consideration at this point and will be getting a vote from me in the next round.
He was a 2019 draftee out of Georgia Tech and lost his first full season in pro ball due to 2020 being the covid year. Despite that, in 2021 he made it all the way to Memphis and had a combined 3.39 ERA for the year. He K’d about a batter an inning but WHIP was still high due to too many hits. Some of that might have been BABIP bad luck, but it seems like he needed to work on missing more bats or inducing weaker contact.
2022 at AAA didn’t show as well. Line drives and fly balls up, K rate down a bit, all translated to higher ERA and WHIP. However, it’s completely conceivable that in only his second full year of pro ball he was working on refining his stuff as opposed to pitching for results….which he saved for the Arizona Fall League.
Albeit it’s a small sample size, he was outstanding in the AZFL compared to the rest of the prospects there. His 25.2 innings was a third of an inning away from most pitched and his 1.75 ERA was the 5th lowest in the league, and by far the lowest of those that threw at least 20 innings (next closest had a 3.52 ERA). He easily led the league with 34ks to only 5BBs and held batters to a .224 average without giving up a HR. Seems like he figured something out and is well primed to contribute in 2023.
November 29, 2022 at 8:04 am #207726Thomas is an interesting prospect, who very much benefitted by pitching in the AFL. He moved in my rankings from being in the 30s into my top 30. He supposedly has a new pitch, a cutter, which produced much improved results. He pitched very well in the AFL, but that must be weighed against his poor showing at Memphis. Spring training will be the time to reevaluate his prospect ranking. He should have a good chance to make the team.
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