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Good comments on Pham, 14NyquisT. I have always been a “Pham Phan”, and agree that he is a guy who canget better. He’s a mature, hard working guy who is not likely to be satisfied with the status quo.
I have thought he should play more since he first showed that athleticism and power in the bigs in 2015. Matheny seemed reluctant to use him, although some of that may have been Pham’s vision issues as he had an alarmingly high strikeout rate when used sparingly. Hard to say if it was that, or not getting a chance to play regularly and get into a steady routine. A recurring theme in baseball is that players always perform better when they play every day, rather than being out of the lineup the after making a mistake or having a bad game. When you have talent, as a manager you let ’em play.
Man, a reserve firstbaseman/pinch hitter can get over $4M a year (Adams). Being an MLB player, which of course is a very exclusive club, is a terrific career path. You can be one of the lower-level employees, and still make more in one year than most do in a lifetime, not to mention great benefits.
At a SABR get-together early last season I told Rockies’ GM Jeff Bridich I thought Adams would be a perfect “Rockie-type” player. He would love hitting here. But Bridich said that although his name came up a couple of times in talks between the two teams, they never got close to making a deal.
If the club does not have a starter step up his game, or acquire someone consistently effective then the loss of Lynn will really be felt. And it could be that one of the highly touted young guys comes through in a big way. Still I don’t completely understand the lack of interest in Lynn, although we do know the Cardinals have a mindset as an organization that works hard to find undervalued players.
Looking at Lynn and Arrieta, Lance has had a 3+ WAR his last three seasons (’14, ’15, ’17). Jake had that incredible 2015, but has gone to 3.4 and 1.9 the last two seasons (B-R numbers). Lynn is a year younger as well.
I would be looking to keep Lynn, but it’s obvious the club wants to look at less costly options. Hard to say which guy of the two would be a better deal. I get the sense that Arrieta will be better next year than last. Lynn will most likely be who he is, a solid 2-3-type starter who gives you innings, and usually keeps you in the game.
I think the offense is going to be pretty good, and like seeing that the club is looking to strengthen the rotation. Lots of question marks there. Plus Lynn was pretty darn good last year, and that is a lot of starts and innings that need to be filled with a quality pitcher. Arrieta would be nice to have, especially as a take-away from the Cubs. But then he is an older guy who is trending downward. One positive note though, is that the guy is a workout machine and knows his mechanics and works to keep them fine tuned. I think the guy is a decent risk to reverse the trend. He won’t be the 2015 all-world version, but it would not surprise me to see him better in ’18.
Thanks Brian. Those are mostly personal thoughts and memories – not sure anyone else cares about them much but I always hate seeing those heroes of yesteryear pass on without letting people know that they meant something to some of us at one time.
A few thoughts and personal memories of some of the former Cardinals who passed away in 2017.
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Daryl Spencer:
Very early on was a favorite of mine, as I had just started collecting baseball cards as a kid in 1961. I would go to the store with my mom and pick out a couple of Post cereal boxes with cards on them, always picking out something that had a Cardinal player. Spencer’s ’61 Post card was one of my favorites. I thought his card and Ken Boyer’s looked a lot alike, and they were two of my favorites although by mid-’61 Spencer had been traded to the Dodgers. Years later, the kid across the street and my best friend for many years played ball for Colorado State University. He told me they played Wichita State a few times, and Spencer was their manager. I believe Spencer had a good career at Wichita State.
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Bob Sadowski:
There were two “Bob Sadowski’s” in the early ’60s, the “St. Louis” Sadowski, and a pitcher in the Cardinals system with the same name. The “St. Louis” Bob Sadowski, a position player, is the one who passed away. The pitcher Bob Sadowski, still living, was included in a 1963 trade with Milwaukee, where the Cardinals also sent their 1962 catcher Gene Oliver for Lew Burdette. Tim McCarver had taken over the number one catcher’s spot in ’63, and the Cardinals felt Oliver was expendable. The deal was a bust though, as Sadowski pitched well for the Braves in ’63, better than Burdette did for St. Louis. Meanwhile Oliver stayed with the Braves a few years and was a decent power hitter, playing first base and the outfield as well as catch. That trade might have cost the Cardinals the 1963 pennant. They finished six games behind the Dodgers, and were especially vulnerable to left-hand pitching. Had Sadowski come up and pitched as well as he had for the Cardinals as he did in Milwaukee, and had Oliver’s right-hand power bat been available, who knows. We were so bad against lefties that in the big three game September series where we were swept by LA at home, dropping from 3 out to 6, the Dodgers started three left-hand pitchers (Koufax, Podres, and Pete Richert I believe).
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Solly Hemus:
His career was before my time, but my dad was never a big fan of him as a manager. My dad used to comment about how the Cardinals made a great move replacing him with Johnny Keane. I believe the reason for that was Hemus felt Stan Musial was pretty much done by 1959, and did not play him as much. My dad also thought Curt Flood could be a very good player, and Hemus never gave him much of a chance.
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Tracy Stallard:
His claim to fame is giving up Maris’ 61st home run of course, but I thought he would be a good pitcher in St. Louis when the Cardinals got him from the Mets. He was a tall, rangy guy who was built like the pro-typical pitcher that was emerging in late ’50s and ’60s – tall and hard throwing.
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Ned Garver:
A great guy! Back in the ’90s a SABR national convention was held in St. LOuis, and Garver was one of the guest speakers. After his talk, he hung out in the lobby of the hotel chatting with a handful of us, and spent an hour or more sharing stories and answering questions. He was pretty funny as well, and said a couple of things I cannot really print here, but was a wealth of knowledge and insight. One thing interesting he said was that Sherman Lollar, a catcher for the Browns in the ’50s and later with the White Sox, was one of the most under-appreciated players he saw. He said Lollar did things to win games that did not show up in the box score – basically he knew how to pitch to opponents and controlled the game. Thinking back on that, he described Lollar sort of like we think of Yadier Molina today.
..and while on the topic of Christmas, here is wishing everyone in Cardinal Nation-land a wonderful Holiday season. While our Cardinals disappointed us this year, that is a trivial matter when we look back over the last year.
Count your blessings, and be safe.
If the Cubs did offer Russell, Almora Jr and Montgomery for Machado, I am surprised the Orioles did not go for it. Maybe they want another pitcher in the deal, but that is a nice haul. Russell is a guy that I think can be better than he has been. He’s got the tools to really put it together here in the next couple of years. Almora Jr is another guy that will be better as he plays more. Montgomery is solid as well.
Plus there is no guarantee on Machado staying where ever he plays in ’18.
I am a bit baffled by the regular comments saying we need to upgrade at third base. It seems people must have been only seeing Gyorko in games where he did not do well. He was second on the team in WAR last year, and is a plus player both on offense and defense.
The one potential issue is that he missed some games, and has that stocky build where you wonder if his legs will hold up over the long grind. But we are not in a desperate need to improve at third base.
Right now we look pretty good, assuming everyone is relatively healthy all year. We could use some assurance at the closer spot, and there is some risk with guys like DeJong, Weaver, and Reyes as they have not been around long enough to show that their high level of play is sustainable. But all-in-all we should be better on offense, and we were not that bad last year. The jury is still out on whether or not we can successfully close games. Plus we absolutely have to improve the fundamentals. Those two areas really hampered us last year.
We all want to see another transaction or two to further improve the roster, but let’s not underestimate what we have.
I don’t see either scenarios working out (Machado or the Tampa deal). Tampa is more likely, unless the price for a one-year rental of Machado comes down. The problem with the Tampa deal, is Gyorko is likely to be better than Longoria at this point, so you are probably weakening a position to get solid closer. How much can you give up for what is probably only a marginal improvement in your club?
One difference in today and when we made the Heyward deal, is at that time the club had a good history of retaining players. Mo even said after the deal was made, that once a guy experiences playing in St. Louis, they are motivated to work out a deal. That no longer seems to be the case. And it’s hard to imagine Machado signing with any team he plays with in 2018. He owes it to himself, especially if he has a good year, to test the market.
Interesting discussion as to how much should a club invest in a closer. I agree to a point with gscottar, in that you do not win a championship without a lock down closer. But more precisely, I look at bullpens a little like a goalie in hockey. A lesser team can win a championship with a hot bullpen in the post season, just like a lesser hockey team can win the cup with a hot goalie.
During the season, to get to the playoffs you are going to need a strong closer. But there are times where your bullpen can fumble around some during the season, and you can still qualify. And then if your bullpen pulls it together in the Fall, they can close the deal (so to speak).
Like some others, I am hesitant to spend big on an open market closer. I like Tui and think he can be a good closer, and then we have Reyes who could be lights out in the role if he’s recovered. But those are “if’s”, and you hate to get to July still trying to figure out who can consistently come in and finish off a close game.
Sounds like a perfect setting for Chris Maloney. His long time service to the Cardinals was truly valuable. I do not think he was well-suited as a third base coach. He did not seem to have a good sense of those critical decisions required when a runner is rounding third. Several times early this past season he let guys “hang out to dry”, and contributed to our overall poor fundamental play.
Still, he seems like a high-character guy who can benefit an organization as a minor league manager/coach/instructor, or first base coach.
Longoria would most likely be a step down from Gyorko. Per BR, both had a 3.6 WAR last year, and both hit 20 homers – but Longoria had almost 200 more ABs that Jedd. Longoria’s OPS+ was 100, or exactly average. Jedd was 112, or 12% better than average.
Then you add the age difference into the mix, Jedd at 29 and Evan at 32, and you have to think Jedd will most likely be as good or better than Evan over the next 2-3 years.
Longoria is a guy that we should only bring in if we have to take him as part of a deal that overall makes us stronger, despite the negative impact at third base. Or obviously if Gyorko has not gone anywhere and we turn Longoria around to someone else in another deal.
Agree that the White Sox interest is probably more of a broker role. They would be playing the part of the 1950s Kansas City Athletics, where you trade a guy to that team, so that they can then trade him to the Yankees. Like Ryne Duren once told me at a local SABR event about 7 or 8 years ago – when the Indians traded Roger Maris to the Athletics, people were saying “The Yankees just got Maris”.
But man, if somehow we landed Machado and could keep him, that would be something. It would make this the biggest off season shake-up since Whitey Herzog’s dealings after the 1980 season.
I also see Grichuk as moving on. Now it could be that he makes it through the off season still on the roster, and he and Bader battle it out in the Spring for the fourth outfield spot. If it gets that far, ideally Grichuk tears it up in the Spring, and we then cash him in for a decent prospect.
Oh, and I am happy for Piscotty. He gets to be near his mom a lot more, and can get a fresh start in Oakland. I still think he will be a decent player, but things happened last year that got him off track.
That White Sox rumor is puzzling. They have a boat load of prospects, and I would not expect them to suddenly change course and go after Machado. The exception would be if they are assured of signing him to a long-term deal, and do not overpay. But I would think Machado wants to hit the open market after this season.
I cast my vote officially as positive on this deal. When it looked like Alcantara and Flaherty were part of the deal, I was negative. But now the deal makes more sense, as Sierra looks to be blocked for awhile, and while the lower level pitchers may work out for Miami, they are taking on more risk. Hate to give up Alcantara, but that is what it takes to get a premium player.
It’s not exactly a steal in my opinion, as the jury is still out on Ozuna maintaining his production, and then you’ve got only two years before he could move on. And then if Alcantara has his location, he could be Miami’s all-star this coming July.
An outfield of Pham, Fowler and Ozuna, with Bader as the fourth guy looks pretty good.
One word of caution to throw out there – as I mentioned earlier our offense was not all that bad last year. We were sixth in the NL in runs scored. Where we have regressed the last two years is in runs allowed. Our offensive “woes” were magnified by poor pitching and defense, not too mention giving away far too many outs on the base paths. I suppose one way to fix that is just overpower teams so you can live with giving up more runs. But we need to get better in field as well, and somehow keep our head in the game on the bases.
Nice to get a big bat. Often age 27 is when players are at their peak, which is Ozuna’s age. The Cards are banking on him remaining productive while he is under the club’s control. He should be, although the risk is last year is an outlier.
But man, I hate giving up two of the top pitching prospects. I would have given up one, plus someone like Wacha, Sherriff, Brebbia etc. And I hope the outfielder going the other way is Grichuk, as I still see hope for Piscotty; Grichuk is what he is, as the saying goes.
But obviously one premium prospect was not enough for Miami. Sometimes you gotta roll the dice and take a shot, and that’s what the Cardinals did. We’ll look back in three years and see how it worked out.
I am neutral on this deal. I am not a big fan of it, yet the club is dead set on adding offense, and maybe it will work out as you never know about prospects. The thing is, the offense has been better the last two years than in the previous two (’14 and ’15), and those teams had better records. The difference is that the pitching and defense have been worse, plus it seems that we were much better at the fundamentals then than in the last two seasons. Last year was abysmal. I am just not sure trading what could be premium pitching, an area where we have regressed, is the smart thing to do.
Junior would like the way you think. Do nothing, spend no money and stick with the guys you have.
Just to be clear, I think we need to strongly pursue and assess potential deals aimed at improving the offense. At the same time, do not panic and make a deal just for the sake of making it.
I am not sure why the club has not shown interest in JD Martinez. He is a guy who might be better than anyone available. But then we would be stuck with an even bigger logjam in the outfield than we already have. But that is a “problem” you can live with when you land a guy that can make a difference like Martinez.
Would love to bring in Machado, and dealing some premium talent would be required. I doubt Baltimore is interested in too many of our position players – they probably want to get a couple of those good young arms we have, plus perhaps a guy like Piscotty who is young enough and has had success to where he is a good bet to improve.
But to do that, you almost have to get Machado to sign long-term.
Yeah, no way I give up two top pitching prospects for Ozuna. I would like to have him, but do not feel that he is a lock to be a strong enough upgrade over guys we have to give up what looks to be premium pitching in a couple of years.
I can live with their choice of Grichuk or Piscotty (preferably Grichuk as Piscotty is a guy I can see being much better next year), and a pitching prospect.
But man, be careful. I can see this being a trap, similar to the deal where we gave up Van Slyke, Lavalliere, and Dunne for Tony Pena. Van Slyke blossomed, and Lavalliere turned out better than Pena.
The Cardinals have not seen some of their home grown offensive players develop like they hoped, and thus are conditioned to think this will keep happening. That is not a certainty, so don’t overpay on a guy that had a career year.
Was thinking the same thing. Obviously the simple math works if those guys have the same production next year as this past year. But players can have huge production swings year-to-year, so you have to think more globally and try to diversify when cutting a deal. Out of those three Cardinals, Piscotty is likely better than he was in ’17. Ozuna had a career year, and has not been as good as he was in ’17.